fabrar

De'Aaron Fox 2019-2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

Didn't see anything about my boy Fox yet. What are we expecting this year? He made a big leap last year, putting up 17/7/4 qith 1.6 stls on 46% shooting. Can he take another step forward this year? The team has remained more or less the same with only Dedmon replacing WCS. 

I'm thinking something like 20/7.5/4 for Foxy on 47% fg and hopefully high-70s/low-80s ft. Should be worth a 3rd round pick I think, and a solid first PG for anyone who went for big men and wings in the first 2 rounds.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Grabbed him in the 3rd round. I'm hoping this guy can at least average 8 AST and shoot 75-80% from the line. I predict 20/8.5/4, 45% FG, 75% FT, 1.5 3's, 1.8 STLS

Edited by sharkpotato

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

better version of wall. 

 

A healthy John Wall pre-achilles?  No, he is not yet and its solely because of the FT%.  The FT% is the only thing holding this guy back at this point from being a complete stud.  He was at 73.6% in college and he has been a little lower than that so far in the pros. 

I do believe eventually he is going to get it higher since he seems like someone that works hard on his game, but can he get it higher this season to around high 70's?  I have doubts and the preseason has not lowered my doubts either - so far he is 12/17.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

better version of wall. 

 

I'm sure it's been said before but they're pretty damn similar, right down to their Kentucky college roots, elite speed, great steals, and shoddy FT%. Except Fox can hit more 3s potentially, and is not as good of a rebounder.

 

14 minutes ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

A healthy John Wall pre-achilles?  No, he is not yet and its solely because of the FT%.  The FT% is the only thing holding this guy back at this point from being a complete stud.  He was at 73.6% in college and he has been a little lower than that so far in the pros. 

I do believe eventually he is going to get it higher since he seems like someone that works hard on his game, but can he get it higher this season to around high 70's?  I have doubts and the preseason has not lowered my doubts either - so far he is 12/17.

 

True, but worth noting that Wall was only ~75% in college compared to Fox's ~74%. And the past two seasons Wall has only shot 73% and 70%.

BUT of course Wall has much better career highs, going up to near 81% at his best. 

And of course I don't think he's a prime John Wall yet in terms of impact. But they've got some fun similarities. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Tekno Team 2000 said:

 

A healthy John Wall pre-achilles?  No, he is not yet and its solely because of the FT%.  The FT% is the only thing holding this guy back at this point from being a complete stud.  He was at 73.6% in college and he has been a little lower than that so far in the pros. 

I do believe eventually he is going to get it higher since he seems like someone that works hard on his game, but can he get it higher this season to around high 70's?  I have doubts and the preseason has not lowered my doubts either - so far he is 12/17.

I was more talking about from a real life perspective. maybe im wrong as I haven't watch a tone of wall but he was more of the Westbrook mold burner type. fox has that elite speed but he plays under control. fox 46% fg in his 2nd season wall had 1 season in his career of 45%. wall has avg 0.9 threes for his career with 3pt% all over the last 3-5 seasons from 30-37%, fox 37% 3pt% 2nd season. wall a t/o monster just a hair under 4 a night for his career. fox under 3 t/o a night. so fox looks more efficient, with more upside on paper and as someone who watched a lot SAC last year hes very good and can get to the rim whenever he wants but he takes what the d gives him.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fox vs Lowry vs Conley vs Bledsoe...

 

Fox is going higher than the other 3 in every single draft I've done.  But is there really much difference in value between the 4 players?  Fox finished the lowest of the 4 last year. 

 

I'm thinking Lowry and Conley have more value via much more 3's and FT, which more than makeup for Fox's slightly higher assists and steals...

 

So I decided to look at BBM...BBM's rankings last year - 

Conley 27, Lowry 36, Bledsoe 43.  Fox was ranked 70.  

 

I was thinking of trying to get Fox in the 3rd round, haven't been able to yet.  I wonder if maybe he's being over-drafted, and it's wiser to wait and shoot for one of the other 3 guards a few rounds later...

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wouldn't reach to grab him if I was you.  He's going to be solid but he will have long stretches of bad games.  He started off strong and was really subpar the entire months of January and February last year to the point I wanted to bench him

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

Fox vs Lowry vs Conley vs Bledsoe...

 

Fox is going higher than the other 3 in every single draft I've done.  But is there really much difference in value between the 4 players?  Fox finished the lowest of the 4 last year. 

 

I'm thinking Lowry and Conley have more value via much more 3's and FT, which more than makeup for Fox's slightly higher assists and steals...

 

So I decided to look at BBM...BBM's rankings last year - 

Conley 27, Lowry 36, Bledsoe 43.  Fox was ranked 70.  

 

I was thinking of trying to get Fox in the 3rd round, haven't been able to yet.  I wonder if maybe he's being over-drafted, and it's wiser to wait and shoot for one of the other 3 guards a few rounds later...

its fox upside and his floor. I wouldn't reach for him if I wasn't punting ft% or threes or both. youth>vet in this situation but I hate conley so there is some bias

 

edit- and by floor I don't mean overall rank but I mean his stat line that he offers in steals dimes pts and fg%

Edited by colepenhagen
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

I was more talking about from a real life perspective. maybe im wrong as I haven't watch a tone of wall but he was more of the Westbrook mold burner type. fox has that elite speed but he plays under control. fox 46% fg in his 2nd season wall had 1 season in his career of 45%. wall has avg 0.9 threes for his career with 3pt% all over the last 3-5 seasons from 30-37%, fox 37% 3pt% 2nd season. wall a t/o monster just a hair under 4 a night for his career. fox under 3 t/o a night. so fox looks more efficient, with more upside on paper and as someone who watched a lot SAC last year hes very good and can get to the rim whenever he wants but he takes what the d gives him.

 

I like this comparison of Wall and Fox. I honestly hadn't heard of this before, and maybe my head is under a rock (likely). But their speed is what makes me think of the comparison too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just read some article that ever since Bagley took over from Bjelica, Fox's numbers took a dive especially his fg% making his ranking lower than what it was at the first half of the last season. One or both of them needs to improve their shooting for their synergy to work better. The lack of spacing especially when Barnes is cold from 3 is going to hurt. Dedmon doesn't shoot enough to make a difference compared to WCS but maybe he is a better screener.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not in on Fox at his current valuation, which I personally just think is insane and asinine. His yahoo pre-rank is a staggering 29 which is the middle of round 3. Its seems he's essentially being drafted at his ceiling with there being no room for profit unless we see a dramatic jump in ft% and/or 3PTM. I am skeptical of both. As a by way of example, he is routinely drafted ahead of Deangelo Russell and Chris Paul which just makes absolutely zero logical sense. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he didn't finish in the top 50 this year and in fact I'm expecting that to be the case.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

I'm not in on Fox at his current valuation, which I personally just think is insane and asinine. His yahoo pre-rank is a staggering 29 which is the middle of round 3. Its seems he's essentially being drafted at his ceiling with there being no room for profit unless we see a dramatic jump in ft% and/or 3PTM. I am skeptical of both. As a by way of example, he is routinely drafted ahead of Deangelo Russell and Chris Paul which just makes absolutely zero logical sense. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he didn't finish in the top 50 this year and in fact I'm expecting that to be the case.

 

Drafted ahead of Chris Paul is understandable, but not D'Angelo I concur. Fox should be a 4th round player atm. But he is the heart and soul of the King's up tempo offense. I can see the upside.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, OxyBubbleMan said:

I just read some article that ever since Bagley took over from Bjelica, Fox's numbers took a dive especially his fg% making his ranking lower than what it was at the first half of the last season. One or both of them needs to improve their shooting for their synergy to work better. The lack of spacing especially when Barnes is cold from 3 is going to hurt. Dedmon doesn't shoot enough to make a difference compared to WCS but maybe he is a better screener.

wonder what that sample size was considering bagley started 4 games and avg under 25 min as a sub in 58 games. so not sure if that has a directed correlation on bagley or not.

 

 

ha cp3 avg under 60 games the last 3 years and is 34 no chance. more risk

fwiw Jennings finished as 19th overall in 2011 with a line of 19/3/5 2 threes 1.6 steals 41% 80% (game and stat line have changed but still)

 

overall rank and where a player finishes doesn't mean much outside roto. you pay and draft for stats. possible 10 dimes 2 steals and pg with blks and fg% is what and why he is going where he is going. 

 

don't see why fox cant avg 1.5 or better threes he shot 37% last year

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, OxyBubbleMan said:

I just read some article that ever since Bagley took over from Bjelica, Fox's numbers took a dive especially his fg% making his ranking lower than what it was at the first half of the last season. One or both of them needs to improve their shooting for their synergy to work better. The lack of spacing especially when Barnes is cold from 3 is going to hurt. Dedmon doesn't shoot enough to make a difference compared to WCS but maybe he is a better screener.

 

I think just the fact that Dedmon CAN shoot the 3 makes a huge difference in spacing from WCS or another player that doesnt shoot 3's at all.  You can leave WCS open on every single play.  You cannot leave Dedmon open on any play.  Granted he's not going to be shooting 5 threes / game but just the threat is good enough to make a difference.    

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GP

Min

FGM

FGA

3M

3A

FTM

FTA

OR

TR

AS

ST

TO

BK

PTS

81

2546

505

1102

86

232

303

417

42

304

590

133

227

45

1399

72

2320

506

1187

168

515

346

485

85

562

429

78

246

25

1526

Player in the first row is Fox.  Player in the second row is being highly touted this year as a late second round pick, maybe higher based on projections. (Fantasy Pros says he has gone as high as 16th in ADP)

I'm in a points league, so I'm haven't looked at things from a category view in a number of years.  But to me Fox looks pretty good  when comparing him to Luka Donic. 

If I was able to get Fox in the 4th round, I'd be happy. FantasyPRos says Fox has gone anywhere from 26 to 41 ADP

Edited by rabaak

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

took him in the 3rd round (28th overall) 

i think he’s being grossly underrated on this forum and some of the first few replies (cats saying he won’t reach top 50 lol) won’t age well 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, mbell317 said:

What the fook is this game? 

Foul trouble and a young player struggling. Just one of those nights. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been very disappointed with his assist output so far and I blame that on coach Walton and the idiots in the front office. They played an exciting pace and space type ball - perfect for a guy like Fox and almost made the playoffs (I chalk that collapse to growing pains, inexperience) and they decided to squash momentum, bring in a new coach, and learn a new system. Am I missing something? Can anybody shine a light on why this is happening?

I know it's only been a few games, but i'm not liking where this is heading. This system isn't fitting right for this team and the record shows.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, sharkpotato said:

I've been very disappointed with his assist output so far and I blame that on coach Walton and the idiots in the front office. They played an exciting pace and space type ball - perfect for a guy like Fox and almost made the playoffs (I chalk that collapse to growing pains, inexperience) and they decided to squash momentum, bring in a new coach, and learn a new system. Am I missing something? Can anybody shine a light on why this is happening?

I know it's only been a few games, but i'm not liking where this is heading. This system isn't fitting right for this team and the record shows.

 

It's the TO's and FT%/Attempts that's killing me, and killing his value as well. I expected the increase in FT's, but damn, I thought he would bring it up to a respectable 75-77% at least.

 

There's almost nothing going right for him atm, three's, steals, down as well.

 

Interesting is that this is what I thought his 2nd season would look like, so I stayed away from him in the draft last year, but he managed to put together a pretty efficient season.

 

Circumstances much different this season, so if Walton is around for the long haul, I can only hope Fox figures it out. 

 

And because I can already feel this reply coming from somewhere, "I know it's only been 7 games" son.

 

But if you can accept people having orgasms over great stat lines, then accept the other side of that as well, life isn't always sunshine and rainbows, the dark clouds are there, don't pretend they're not by trying to cover your ears.

Edited by SkalChriston

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.