MilesBridgesBetterThanZion

Devonte' Graham 2019-2020 Outlook

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10 hours ago, Lifschitz said:


If I was watching a 34 percent shooter, 28 percent from three? He was bad, and not to appeal to bandwagon but that was the wide consensus. It’s why everyone was shocked at how well he’s playing this year, it’s a huge jump for a guy who was by all means bad last year. 
 

he averaged 4.7 points in 14 minutes, in fact he didn’t have a single successful month last season in his splits, he was that bad. His best month was 44 percent in 13 minutes and the overall line is nothing to write home about, he shot 33 percent or below the final 4 months of the season. 
 

granted, he was never going to get a lot of minutes with kemba there, but Charlotte didn’t even care to develop him next to kemba, which says a lot considering just how bad and talent starved Charlotte was. 
 

Borrego cited his commitment to working insanely hard in the offseason for why they wanted to give him a shot at playing time, and it paid off, that’s what most improved constitutes, it’s literally in the name of the award.

Andthis, my dear friends, is why you watch other stuff than just shooting splits. I had pegged him as the best pointguard on their roster this year as soon as there were rumours about Kemba being gone late last season. So not everyone was shocked... And those who had watched him in college and watched him play already knew he was a really , decent to good playmaker.

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I am too lazy to dig up the stats but I think Graham still has some positive regression / upside in steals, especially for dynasty...hasn't shown it this year but I think his college and rookie stats show potential for more production there...not quite FVV but perhaps similar in that FVV had a down year in steals, and this year it jumped back up and he's at 2/game.  John Collins another example of stretches of low steal production.   

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5 hours ago, RipCity0 said:

This is not true. Holmes is very strong in stocks where Graham sucks as well. If you punt turnovers Holmes is still ranked higher. They are both great but z values favour Holmes clearly. Now saying that if you punt this and that etc yes you can make him look better than Holmes, but fg% is not turnovers, it is very important. Funny thing Holmes is a bigger positive in ft% as well 😁


You’re just spouting bullsh*t now lol.

The Case for Z-scores

If you punt FG, Holmes’ z-score takes a massive hit and he tumbles to 62.

Devonte leaps up to 34.

Of course this is considering a punt build, and if you want to compare z-value for z-value in a vacuum, Holmes is ranked higher.

But I don’t see very many scenarios where people aren’t accounting for build types when they’re fielding a team. Even if they’re not punting FG, you might have a greater need for PTS, 3PTM, AST etc, or REB and TO more.

Winning a Category

How does Devonte “suck in stocks”? He’s decent for a guard, and his bulk 3PTM help you win a category. Sure he’ll tank you in FG, but he can singlehandedly propel your team to win 3PTM, AST and give a huge boost to PTS considering you picked up 20PPG fresh off waivers.

Holmes doesn’t take enough FG FT to win you those categories. Same goes for rebounds. He’s a positive contributor across those categories, but you won’t win them.

Devonte and Holmes are literally the antithesis to each other. Holmes’ z-score errs on marginal positives of 0.00+ (ie doesn’t damage you anywhere and will help everywhere in bits ala 2014 Kawhi), while Devonte’s z-score swings wildly (ie huge changes in categorical value, will win you certain categories and kill you in others).

Anecdotal, but I would never trade Devonte for Holmes given my team build. Devonte propelled my team to 2nd from last since I got him. The Holmes owner in our league is dead last even with Harden/Beal/Booker. 

These 2 players are the pickups of the year, but at the end of the day, we don’t play fantasy in a vacuum, z-score for z-score. I’d rather the guy that dominates certain categories that win them for me, week in week out.

Edited by ovofnd
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11 minutes ago, ovofnd said:

Devonte and Holmes are literally the antithesis to each other. Holmes’ z-score errs on marginal positives of 0.00+ (ie doesn’t damage you anywhere and will help everywhere in bits ala 2014 Kawhi), while Devonte’s z-score swings wildly (ie huge changes in categorical value, will win you certain categories and kill you in others).

This is the Harden-AD debate all over again.  I agree with you, it depends on team builds.  If someone thinks Holmes is better no matter what your team looks like, they're wrong.

This is why I love fantasy basketball and abhor fantasy football these days.  You can make a lot of crazy **** work in basketball.  In football, you just get the guy that gets you the most points 😴😴😴😴

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8 minutes ago, Trench Mob said:

Umm... I'm not hip to the newest slang lol. What's a Z-Score?

Standard deviation.  Basically, how much better or worse someone is compared to the average player.  Like obviously 20 is more than 6, right, but 20 points aren't better than 6 blocks.  Z score just flattens that out.  0 is average, 1 is good, 2 is great, 3 is otherworldly, etc.  And the same going into the negatives.  -1 is bad, -2 is really bad, -3 is atrocious.

When you look at their z scores, you see that while both are good, it's situational as to who you'd want.

33vuxzw.png

The first two numbers are games played and minutes.  The rest are the z score of the 9 cats. Holmes is technically helping you six things, Graham in technically four.  But Graham is really helping you win two things, whereas Holmes is really helping you win one.  That's where the debate begins.

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4 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

Standard deviation.  Basically, how much better or worse someone is compared to the average player.  Like obviously 20 is more than 6, right, but 20 points aren't better than 6 blocks.  Z score just flattens that out.  0 is average, 1 is good, 2 is great, 3 is otherworldly, etc.  And the same going into the negatives.  -1 is bad, -2 is really bad, -3 is atrocious.

When you look at their z scores, you see that while both are good, it's situational as to who you'd want.

33vuxzw.png

The first two numbers are games played and minutes.  The rest are the z score of the 9 cats. Holmes is technically helping you six things, Graham in technically four.  But Graham is really helping you win two things, whereas Holmes is really helping you win one.  That's where the debate begins.

 

Ah. BBM and all that jazz. Pretty neat I suppose.

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1 hour ago, ovofnd said:


You’re just spouting bullsh*t now lol.

The Case for Z-scores

If you punt FG, Holmes’ z-score takes a massive hit and he tumbles to 62.

Devonte leaps up to 34.

Of course this is considering a punt build, and if you want to compare z-value for z-value in a vacuum, Holmes is ranked higher.

But I don’t see very many scenarios where people aren’t accounting for build types when they’re fielding a team. Even if they’re not punting FG, you might have a greater need for PTS, 3PTM, AST etc, or REB and TO more.

Winning a Category

How does Devonte “suck in stocks”? He’s decent for a guard, and his bulk 3PTM help you win a category. Sure he’ll tank you in FG, but he can singlehandedly propel your team to win 3PTM, AST and give a huge boost to PTS considering you picked up 20PPG fresh off waivers.

Holmes doesn’t take enough FG FT to win you those categories. Same goes for rebounds. He’s a positive contributor across those categories, but you won’t win them.

Devonte and Holmes are literally the antithesis to each other. Holmes’ z-score errs on marginal positives of 0.00+ (ie doesn’t damage you anywhere and will help everywhere in bits ala 2014 Kawhi), while Devonte’s z-score swings wildly (ie huge changes in categorical value, will win you certain categories and kill you in others).

Anecdotal, but I would never trade Devonte for Holmes given my team build. Devonte propelled my team to 2nd from last since I got him. The Holmes owner in our league is dead last even with Harden/Beal/Booker. 

These 2 players are the pickups of the year, but at the end of the day, we don’t play fantasy in a vacuum, z-score for z-score. I’d rather the guy that dominates certain categories that win them for me, week in week out.

Wow if you punt FG Graham is better? Seriously how smart you are and i m spouting bullshit. Let's try to punt 3s or assists with Graham?

 

When we talk about who has better value you cannot take into account punt builds simply because there are different team builds. You can disregard turnovers and this is fair, but the rest is in play and when you say who is better it has to be in a vacuum. I didn't say there is no scenario where Graham is more valuable but there are scenarios where Lillard is better than Drummond and vice versa. Then we just stop comparing players because for you someone is better for your build? There has to be some base of comparison. 

 

Graham is strong, dominant as you say in 3 categories. In fact it is two though because he is not dominant in points. There he is just good and he has no other really good category. In fact he is negative in five cats. Holmes has only 3 negative. He is way more balanced. Certainly better for roto leagues and in most cases better for h2h as well as it gives you way more flexibility. Graham locks you in a specific scenario. 

 

Ah btw Holmes fg value is higher than Graham's threes or assists, he takes enough shots to give the necessary boost and win the category.

Edited by RipCity0

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12 minutes ago, RipCity0 said:

Wow if you punt FG Graham is better? Seriously how smart you are and i m spouting bullshit. Let's try to punt 3s or assists with Graham?

 

When we talk about who has better value you cannot take into account punt builds simply because there are different team builds. You can disregard turnovers and this is fair, but the rest is in play and when you say who is better it has to be in a vacuum. I didn't say there is no scenario where Graham is more valuable but there are scenarios where Lillard is better than Drummond and vice versa. Then we just stop comparing players because for you someone is better for your build? There has to be some base of comparison. 

 

Graham is strong, dominant as you say in 3 categories. In fact it is two though because he is not dominant in points. There he is just good and he has no other really good category. In fact he is negative in five cats. Holmes has only 3 negative. He is way more balanced. Certainly better for roto leagues and in most cases better for h2h as well as it gives you way more flexibility. Graham locks you in a specific scenario. 

 

Ah btw Holmes fg value is higher than Graham's threes or assists, he takes enough shots to give the necessary boost and win the category.


So you just completely disregarded my point and missed the entire thing. Haha. Well done man!

Also let me remind you...

You are in a Devonte thread. The people who own him here are likely to have built around his categorical values. You can’t just say Holmes>Devonte without accounting for punt FG builds. That’s just reckless.

Context is king — what you’re saying right now is absolutely moot to us.

Edited by ovofnd
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3 minutes ago, ovofnd said:


So you just completely disregarded my point and missed the entire thing. Haha. Well done man!

Also let me remind you...

You are in a Devonte thread. The people who own him here are likely to have built around his categorical values. You can’t just say Holmes>Devonte without accounting for punt FG builds. That’s just reckless.

Context is king — what you’re saying right now is absolutely moot to us.

I don't care if it is the Graham thread i commented on the "this is the pickup lf the year" thing. Unless there is one pickup of the year in every thread.  Anyway happy new year.

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1 hour ago, hipriest69 said:

I am too lazy to dig up the stats but I think Graham still has some positive regression / upside in steals, especially for dynasty...hasn't shown it this year but I think his college and rookie stats show potential for more production there...not quite FVV but perhaps similar in that FVV had a down year in steals, and this year it jumped back up and he's at 2/game.  John Collins another example of stretches of low steal production.   


I looked at deflection leaders about a month back and he was up there, and that was when he was around .5, shortly after he had three games with double digit steals. So you’re right. 

for whatever reason Charlotte for years now is near the bottom in steals. They don’t preach being aggressive defensively and it’s why their team struggles. 
 

They’re currently 26th worst with 6.8 spg.

 

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7 hours ago, Lifschitz said:


They’re both great, but Graham’s value also jumps up quite a bit in 8 cat as he’s only a one category punt and is among the league leaders in assists and threes. Hard to find PGs like that and he’s been a top 35 play all year in 9 cat despite the poor shooting.

Naturally I’m biased, I own graham. Richaun has no weaknesses, but were also looking at his rank based on a huge surge in value on the back of some insane lines.

look at his November split, almost equal minutes and he was at 11 / 9 and .8 steals and 1.5 blocks. solid numbers but no one was making the case that he was WW pickup of the year at that point. 

Hes had 3 huge lines in a row and now we’re having this debate, but graham has been doing this all year with big pop off lines. 
 

 


Am i missing something because how can you say Grahams been a top 35 play despite the poor shooting when hes ranked in the 70s? Did you mean top 35 if you punt the poor shooting? 

Also Holmes is currently 24th overall. Three good games isnt going to get a player ranked that high. Hes been incredibly consistent with his percenatges, blocks, steals, and low turnovers, and thats why hes ranked so high. Before those games he had to have been flirting with top 50 value. 

You said that youre possibly biased, but i have neither on my team so there is no bias. I used to have Graham, but very glad to have gotten rid of him because he was killing me since i only play roto. I wish i had Holmes though.

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I own both Graham and Holmes... they both give different value.. let's stop the nonsense and comparing.

 

Graham arguably can go toe to toe with Harden in 3pts, ast, and that by itself is valuable.

Holmes is a really good center that give all the stat of a center without punting FT%.  However he lacks extreme production in reb, blk, pts compare to superstar centers.

They both give different things to your team and depend on how you build your team they are valued differently.

 

Also, why would you come to a Graham post and complain about Graham ~~~ you will get your butt kicked

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One thing I find strange is when some folks make it a bad thing to complain about the player. This is a discussion post, not let's hold pinkies and pray together. This ongoing discussion has been great with an objective view on players and their fit.

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53 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:


I looked at deflection leaders about a month back and he was up there, and that was when he was around .5, shortly after he had three games with double digit steals. So you’re right. 

for whatever reason Charlotte for years now is near the bottom in steals. They don’t preach being aggressive defensively and it’s why their team struggles. 
 

They’re currently 26th worst with 6.8 spg.

 

 

I remember you posting something about deflection leaders in one of the threads in this forum.  Could you please post the site again?  I was wanting to look up another player and couldn't find this information.  I tried Googling it and didn't have any luck.  Thanks!

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Grahams a beast in h2h, but hardly anyone wants him in roto. You have any idea how many offers ive sent out with Graham before i could get someone to accept a deal in both my roto leagues? Dudes singlehandedly a team killer because its so hard to be good in Roto and punt fg%. I packaged him with Jonas in 2 for 1 deals for guys ranked around 50-70 and i got turned away on nearly everything lol.

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8 minutes ago, jay_00 said:

Grahams a beast in h2h, but hardly anyone wants him in roto. You have any idea how many offers ive sent out with Graham before i could get someone to accept a deal in both my roto leagues? Dudes singlehandedly a team killer because its so hard to be good in Roto and punt fg%. I packaged him with Jonas in 2 for 1 deals for guys ranked around 50-70 and i got turned away on nearly everything lol.

 

His inconsistent shooting and overall poor FG% should be no surprise to anyone. That was my original hesitancy in picking him up.  However, I felt the positives outweighed the negatives in the leagues where I grabbed him which was early in the season. He also fit a few of my teams builds well in that I am punting FG% and TOs in those leagues.

I agree, I think his value is in H2H (certain builds) and points..He seems like he would be a killer in roto since you can't really punt categories and expect to win.

Edited by mbroo5880i

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14 minutes ago, gooseball said:

One thing I find strange is when some folks make it a bad thing to complain about the player. This is a discussion post, not let's hold pinkies and pray together. This ongoing discussion has been great with an objective view on players and their fit.

Never forget the time people were mad at me for pages and pages for saying of course Pascal Siakam wasn't gonna shoot over 60% for the season last year.  It's gotta be frustrating when you just want stand in a circle with your best boys and jerk off, and someone intrudes to share some obvious facts.

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54 minutes ago, mbroo5880i said:

 

I remember you posting something about deflection leaders in one of the threads in this forum.  Could you please post the site again?  I was wanting to look up another player and couldn't find this information.  I tried Googling it and didn't have any luck.  Thanks!


sure

next time just google “NBA deflection stats”

 

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?sort=DEFLECTIONS&dir=1

quite an obvious correlation since all the top steals leaders also lead in deflections (fvv jrue jimmy etc.)

in December he’s on the 2nd page with 2.2 which puts him in Lowry and russell territory.

 

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15 minutes ago, Lifschitz said:


sure

next time just google “NBA deflection stats”

 

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?sort=DEFLECTIONS&dir=1

quite an obvious correlation since all the top steals leaders also lead in deflections (fvv jrue jimmy etc.)

in December he’s on the 2nd page with 2.2 which puts him in Lowry and russell territory.

 

 

Thanks!  haha...who knows what I was doing wrong.  I thought I had searched for something similar but apparently not. 😄

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18 minutes ago, ovofnd said:

Punt FG. This is the Way.

🙏🏼

 

don't like to punt any cat, but I'm OK with Graham how could any owner not be?  if you have him now you can certainly make use of him in a punt FG build or otherwise.

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