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SpartyOn4

Ryan McMahon 2020 Outlook

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Since these are starting and there's already one for Hampson, might as well do McMahon next. He's an interesting player.

Positives:

* Hit 17 HR and 47 RBI in 2nd half, which would prorate to 38 HR and 104 RBI over a full season.
* 91.4 avg exit velocity and 47.7% hard hit rate both among the best in the league. Want a guy who hits the ball really hard in Coors?
* Was a fairly touted prospect, plus he's still young - turns 25 in December.
* Eligible at 1B, 2B and 3B in some formats.

Negatives:

* 29.7% K rate and 50.8% GB rate - oof. About 60% of his PAs were strikeouts or grounders.
* His K and GB rates actually got worse during the 2nd half. His "breakout" was fueled by an unsustainable 40.5 HR/FB%.
* Only produced 0.6 WAR and is no lock for PT with Hampson and Rodgers in the 2B mix.

Take him out of Colorado and I'd be beyond uninterested. Those K and GB rates are gross and there's no guarantee he has a job. But the upside remains really tantalizing, and his ADP based on 2EarlyMocks is 174. At that point it might be worth a shot.

Who's buying?

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I'm interested in all the Colorado middle infielder guys, but outside of Story there are some real questions about playing time. McMahon is someone I'm interested in buying if he falls to me but he's not someone I'm interested in targeting at this time. That might change after I see how it all shakes out in the spring. There are several red flags here but as you hinted at, Colorado is an extremely interesting place that makes it hard to ignore any of their players entirely.

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watch this team closely in the off-season. There is no question their biggest issue is pitching and while it'd be a crazy idea to think about, moving Trevor Story could likely get them a front line starter +. If they do that, then SS is Rogers and 2B will be manned by McMahon/Hampson or if McMahon takes another step up just McMahon himself, with Hampson working the OF. Just a thought. IF no one is moved, McMahon will have to battle with not only Hampson, but Rogers for playing time and that's precarious to say the least. 

Off season for Colorado will tell you a lot about what this team is thinking and only then can you really project value onto McMahon. I like the kid, but he's also not a can't miss either. 

I appreciate the original poster, delivered some great comments, but I am not overly concerned about a  29% strike out rate, as long as it doesn't go back up. In fact, I could see him getting it down some. If you're showing hard contact rate and striking out less than 30% I think that's serviceable. Yes the GBR I'd like to see improve, and I think that will as McMahon has a launch angle that should lend itself toward more flyballs. 

I suspect Ryan McMahon will be one of the more polarizing players heading into 2020's fantasy year. That makes it fun. 

Edited by kwolf68
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On 10/16/2019 at 10:10 PM, SpartyOn4 said:

Negatives:

* 29.7% K rate and 50.8% GB rate - oof. About 60% of his PAs were strikeouts or grounders.
* His K and GB rates actually got worse during the 2nd half. His "breakout" was fueled by an unsustainable 40.5 HR/FB%.
* Only produced 0.6 WAR and is no lock for PT with Hampson and Rodgers in the 2B mix.

 

The GB% and K% are concerning but that just means he could improve that much more.  I remember when McMahon was 21 in AA and he had over a 30% K rate.  The next season in 49 games in AA he cut it down to 19% and even lower to 16.9% upon a 71 game AAA promotion that year as a 22 year old.  So I'm confident in the kid making adjustments. 

 

I would call his first half 14.5% HR/FB rate equally as flukey as his 40.5% 2nd half HR/FB%.  His 27% on the season though seems fairly sustainable with how high his hard% is and how low his soft% is as well as Coors Field (I haven't heard of any talks of changing the baseball next season either so that clearly helps).  Now a big factor of his hard and soft percentage I feel is his willingness to sell out contact for more power so I expect his hard% to come down and his soft% to go up some once he starts cutting down the strikeouts but overall his numbers will improve from it.  Also consider how many ground balls he hit, when he was hitting flyballs in the 2nd half he was really making them count.  If McMahon can make an adjustment to hit less ground balls he could see one of the bigger jumps in the league in terms of slugging next year.

 

Hampson could certainly cut into playing time.  But both players offer a lot of versatility.  Hampson actually played 49 games in the outfield to 50 games at 2B (David Dahl being injured played into this a lot).  McMahon played 22 games at 3B and 19 games at 1B, I'm to assume his 1B role should grow even more this year.  Also consider Hampson didn't hit well last year in the bigs and his AAA was vastly underwhelming comparing it to the league averages.  McMahon had 95 more PAs (all in the MLB) than Hampson did last year (counting 117 AAA PAs) so that's just another edge to McMahon in terms of reps and development.

 

I feel Brendan Rodgers is more concerning for McMahon long term but shouldn't be much of a threat next season upon under going season ending shoulder surgery in July 16 in 2019.  Rodgers may not even be ready to get ABs in spring training.  I'm 99.9% sure Rodgers starts the season in the minors.  With already having McMahon and Hampson and teams holding back prospects there's absolutely no reason to rush Rodgers.  Plus it's funny how everyone was hyping out over what Rodgers was doing in AAA last year (only a 160 PAs) because McMahon at 22 was even more impressive in AAA before they started juicing the ball in AAA and this was over 314 PAs.

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Reading a fluff article on McMahon from MLB.com and this jumped out at me:

Quote

Manager Bud Black expects McMahon, who played in 141 games last season, to push into the mid-150s the way Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado have in recent seasons.

“He’s walking around with a sense of knowing that he belongs, that he’s a big leaguer and going to be a productive big leaguer, and I love that confidence,” said Black, who noted he can take advantage of McMahon’s ability to play first base or third base if necessary. “He’s learning from the right guys.

“Nobody has set a better example than Charlie, Nolan [and] Trevor for our guys to follow. It’s really good stuff, and ‘Mac’ is going to be one of those guys that our younger players are going to look up to. That’s starting to happen already.”

Obviously it's no lock that actually happens, but it looks like the Rockies definitely view him as a regular and not in a competition with Hampson or Rodgers. At his Fantrax ADP of 198, I feel like the risk is worth the reward.

Edited by SpartyOn4
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I haven't followed the Rockies camp, I was just wondering if anyone has any info on his spring. He was a big prospect, still young in Colorado, had a great second half and is promised playing time this year in a good lineup. He has 1b, 2B, and 3B eligibility. His numbers were pretty good for a first almost full season of at bats. he split time in the first half and his numbers showed, but he went off after he was guaranteed playing time in the second half and ended up with a pretty nice numbers. I was just wondering why there isn't more hype on him. I think he can really improve on his numbers from last year.

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6 hours ago, CJT said:

I haven't followed the Rockies camp, I was just wondering if anyone has any info on his spring. He was a big prospect, still young in Colorado, had a great second half and is promised playing time this year in a good lineup. He has 1b, 2B, and 3B eligibility. His numbers were pretty good for a first almost full season of at bats. he split time in the first half and his numbers showed, but he went off after he was guaranteed playing time in the second half and ended up with a pretty nice numbers. I was just wondering why there isn't more hype on him. I think he can really improve on his numbers from last year.


Rockies aren’t predictable with playing time.  Fantasy owners seem obsessed with Hampson for reasons that escape me.  

Combo of those things.
 

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On 3/1/2020 at 1:43 AM, B&F said:


Rockies aren’t predictable with playing time.  Fantasy owners seem obsessed with Hampson for reasons that escape me.  

Combo of those things.
 

 

McMahon would really have to start out the season hot.  As the Rockies project to have a bunch of platoons.  They are really deep position player wise going into 2020.  But with Blackmon, Murphy, Desmond all on the wrong side of 30 and David Dahl taking annual trips to the DL (IL) it may only be a matter of time before things get opened up for some more opportunity for the guys a little lower on the depth chart.

 

The Rockies are also very left handed hitter heavy... So that could lead to a few more times of Hampson getting the call over McMahon.

 

I really do like McMahon's talent but the situation he's in right now seems like a lot of players stepping on each other's toes.

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1 hour ago, FouLLine said:

 

McMahon would really have to start out the season hot.  As the Rockies project to have a bunch of platoons.  They are really deep position player wise going into 2020.  But with Blackmon, Murphy, Desmond all on the wrong side of 30 and David Dahl taking annual trips to the DL (IL) it may only be a matter of time before things get opened up for some more opportunity for the guys a little lower on the depth chart.

 

The Rockies are also very left handed hitter heavy... So that could lead to a few more times of Hampson getting the call over McMahon.

 

I really do like McMahon's talent but the situation he's in right now seems like a lot of players stepping on each other's toes.

Black already essentially said it’s his job at 2B as referenced above.

 

He’s one of the most criminally underrated players so far. Would rather have him than Escobar.

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4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Black already essentially said it’s his job at 2B as referenced above.

 

He’s one of the most criminally underrated players so far. Would rather have him than Escobar.

Those Coors homestands are like having a top 7 2B in your lineup.  I like him better in daily leagues where you can perhaps sit him in tough road matchups (depends) but a very good value where he's at.

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how comfortable would you be with mcmahon/hampson as a starting  spot in standard 12 teamer. saying you spending a 175 and 200 pick on them?

got burned last year with this idea

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Really was expecting a breakout this season.  Not a good start.

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6 games at home this week will be telling

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On 8/8/2020 at 8:02 PM, whips02 said:

6 games at home this week will be telling

2 bombs 7 rbis.

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