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Jeff McNeil 2020 Outlook

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Hot take. O'Neil outproduces LeMahieu this season 🔥🔥🔥

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2 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Hot take. O'Neil outproduces LeMahieu this season 🔥🔥🔥

 

Did you mean McNeil?

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47 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Doesn’t this mean he creates similar value either way? The latter pace basically makes him a slightly better Eddie Rosario who goes around the same area.

 

You're comparing him to Rosario based on 249 PA. Rosario has three straight seasons of data showing that he can hit for power. 

When you draft McNeil you draft him for his AVG and anything more than 20 HR is gravy. You draft Rosario expecting him to hit close to 30 HR. Steamer/THE BAT/ATC all seem to agree because all three have McNeil projected for 20 HR and Rosario for 28/30 HR.

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2 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

 

You're comparing him to Rosario based on 249 PA. Rosario has three straight seasons of data showing that he can hit for power. 

When you draft McNeil you draft him for his AVG and anything more than 20 HR is gravy. You draft Rosario expecting him to hit close to 30 HR. Steamer/THE BAT/ATC all seem to agree because all three have McNeil projected for 20 HR and Rosario for 28/30 HR.

It was just an example man that even if he’s the second half player re numbers output it’s still just as valuable. Obv different players and skill sets. Im not an idiot.

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I was all over McNeil last year drafting him in just about every league of mine. Now with an ADP around 86 I’m not going to own any shares. It’s not that I’m not a believer in him, it’s just that I don’t think he can create enough production to justify such a lofty pick. The guy I’m targeting 100 picks later this year who I think will produce a similar stat line is Bryan Reynolds. 

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40 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I was all over McNeil last year drafting him in just about every league of mine. Now with an ADP around 86 I’m not going to own any shares. It’s not that I’m not a believer in him, it’s just that I don’t think he can create enough production to justify such a lofty pick. The guy I’m targeting 100 picks later this year who I think will produce a similar stat line is Bryan Reynolds. 


I really like Reynolds this year too. I also like McNeil but if I’m drafting a guy in the 7/8 round I want a little more production in my counting stats. He’s a really nice player to own though as he’s the ultimate utility belt for your lineup. If he slips about 10-15 picks later and winds up about 100 or so I’d take him then. I just like some of the other bats around his current adp better. 

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1 hour ago, Zig Zag said:

 

Did you mean McNeil?

 

I sure did. Although if would have been a much hotter take if I had meant Paul O'Neil. 

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3 hours ago, Magoo said:

Doesn’t this mean he creates similar value either way? The latter pace basically makes him a slightly better Eddie Rosario who goes around the same area.

I'm not disputing his value. I'm definitely a fan of his talent, if not his price. I'm just not prepared to say his floor is about a 300 average. The upside is we get the best of both worlds and get 30+ bombs with a 300+ average. But I think there's some more risk with his ADP and I'm not sure I'm willing to buy at the current price. Average guys can run into a random year of bad babip luck and their value gets tanked. And without power or strong counting stats to fall back on and it just seems a touch risky. An entire half of hitting 270s is significant.

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So, assuming you play McNeil at 2B (because that's the shallowest position) the other players being drafted near him are - 

 

74. Muncy

75. Moncada

94. McNeil

100. Moustakas

110. Escobar

135. Biggio

 

He should probably be going after Moustakas and Escobar, but I really don't think that his draft position is all that inflated. If he can around .320, which he has done for 1 1/2 seasons, then I think it's justified. He basically has the potential to be what Daniel Murphy used to be. A contributor in every category except stolen bases. 

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3 hours ago, meh2 said:

I was all over McNeil last year drafting him in just about every league of mine. Now with an ADP around 86 I’m not going to own any shares. It’s not that I’m not a believer in him, it’s just that I don’t think he can create enough production to justify such a lofty pick. The guy I’m targeting 100 picks later this year who I think will produce a similar stat line is Bryan Reynolds. 

Yea I’ve been looking at that comp it’s an interesting call. Not sure Reynolds is as safe though?

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21 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Yea I’ve been looking at that comp it’s an interesting call. Not sure Reynolds is as safe though?

 

Oh for sure but that's the reason why he's going so much later in drafts. 

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He is a nice safe pick at his ADP.  

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He holds value in my situation. The fact he adjusted his approach in the 2nd half tells me he can/will adjust his approach this season to adapt whatever the baseball is like. Not knowing for sure about the baseball and his approach makes it more difficult to evaluate value.

Since he does have multi position eligibility and could lead off again I'm going to have a share. At his current ADP is not going to kill me if I'm wrong.

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On 2/28/2020 at 4:10 PM, jmcampbe11 said:

So, assuming you play McNeil at 2B (because that's the shallowest position) the other players being drafted near him are - 

 

74. Muncy

75. Moncada

94. McNeil

100. Moustakas

110. Escobar

135. Biggio

 

He should probably be going after Moustakas and Escobar, but I really don't think that his draft position is all that inflated. If he can around .320, which he has done for 1 1/2 seasons, then I think it's justified. He basically has the potential to be what Daniel Murphy used to be. A contributor in every category except stolen bases. 

I'd take him over Moose all day. Moose just isn't that good... He's 31 years old and he just hit 30 HR forthe 2nd time in his career... He's had 90 RBI once... Never scored more than 80 runs... Doesn't steal... And he hits 250. Meh. So far in his career he's been a while lot of hype and not much production.

Unless moose takes a step forward at age 31, he's likely going to hit about 255 with 72 runs, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 2 SB.

Give me McNeil all day.

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1 hour ago, StevieStats said:

I'd take him over Moose all day. Moose just isn't that good... He's 31 years old and he just hit 30 HR forthe 2nd time in his career... He's had 90 RBI once... Never scored more than 80 runs... Doesn't steal... And he hits 250. Meh. So far in his career he's been a while lot of hype and not much production.

Unless moose takes a step forward at age 31, he's likely going to hit about 255 with 72 runs, 30 HR, 85 RBI, 2 SB.

Give me McNeil all day.

 

I'm giving Moustakas a pass for 2018, because of the way the Brewers handled him after the trade. I think he's an absolute lock for .250ish and 30+. I also think that 30 is probably the floor for his HRs with 40 being the upside. I like McNeil too, but don't sleep on how valuable Moustakas numbers are at 2B. 

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

I'm giving Moustakas a pass for 2018, because of the way the Brewers handled him after the trade. I think he's an absolute lock for .250ish and 30+. I also think that 30 is probably the floor for his HRs with 40 being the upside. I like McNeil too, but don't sleep on how valuable Moustakas numbers are at 2B. 

I hear ya... But 58 players hit 30 HR last year... If you are hitting 250, not stealing, and only marginal in producing counting stats it's not that valuable in this environment.

70 points in batting average > 10 more HR... To me at least.

But that Cinci bandbox sure is a nice landing spot. But I've also seen the moose hype his entire career. I think Moose around 100 or after is appropriate and McNeil firmly above.

McNeil is a batting title contender, finished 6th in average last year (moose 101) in a time and age where only 19 players managed to hit 300 (among qualified).

End of the day McNeil had a 143 wRC+ and Moosetacos a 113. That's a significant gap. In my 6x6 with OPS McNeil ranked 72 and Moose 120.

There's a chance i may own both players but I'm much more wooing to invest more in McNeil.

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20 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

I hear ya... But 58 players hit 30 HR last year... If you are hitting 250, not stealing, and only marginal in producing counting stats it's not that valuable in this environment.

70 points in batting average > 10 more HR... To me at least.

But that Cinci bandbox sure is a nice landing spot. But I've also seen the moose hype his entire career. I think Moose around 100 or after is appropriate and McNeil firmly above.

McNeil is a batting title contender, finished 6th in average last year (moose 101) in a time and age where only 19 players managed to hit 300 (among qualified).

End of the day McNeil had a 143 wRC+ and Moosetacos a 113. That's a significant gap. In my 6x6 with OPS McNeil ranked 72 and Moose 120.

There's a chance i may own both players but I'm much more wooing to invest more in McNeil.

 

I still think it's a big deal at 2B. Aside from catcher I think it's the shallowest position this year. If Moustakas was only 3B eligible I would agree with you 100%. Also, I'm not trying to make an argument for Moustakas over McNeil. I like McNeil more. Too often I think people underestimate how useful a potential .300 hitter is to your overall batting average. Especially one that's going to bat near the top of the order. 

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Depends how your team building is going. Need power, then go moose. Need average go for McNeil, whose power could regress with a change in the ball. In a nutshell I like McNeil over Moose but could see when and why you might need to call an audible and go for the power floor. 

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Why does McNeil seem so criminally underrated? A great batting average with a surge in home runs.  There aren’t many candidates of people that can hit over .310 and hit 25 HRs which McNeil can do.

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I was watching live, may even have a concussion. He was doing the wide eye thing, and just kept putting his hands through his hair. Prolly now the best of things...

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Quote

Jeff McNeil was removed from Thursday afternoon's game against the Nationals with an apparent knee injury.

McNeil crashed hard into the outfield wall in left after making a terrific running catch on an Asdrubal Cabrera drive in the top of the first inning. He tried to walk off the field under his own power but eventually sat back down on the ground and ultimately had to be carted off. He was grabbing at his knee when medical personnel arrived on the scene. Billy Hamilton replaced him in the Mets' lineup in the bottom of the first.

Aug 13, 2020, 1:23 PM ET

This does not sound good at all.  The knee is about the worst injury you can get for a position player.

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It looked pretty bad, honestly 

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7 minutes ago, Thewizardnj said:

I was watching live, may even have a concussion. He was doing the wide eye thing, and just kept putting his hands through his hair. Prolly now the best of things...

 

He didn't even hit his head...  They were looking at his knee...

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7 minutes ago, posty said:

 

He didn't even hit his head...  They were looking at his knee...

You can still have whiplash and head/neck trauma from the impact of both hitting the wall and the ground like that though. I agree that the knee is the major concern. 

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