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GJDHouse

2019-2020 Breakout Candidates

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Drafts are complete, opening games are hours away....time for people to go ahead and give up the names of the players they have been holding on to for a while.  I know that other league mates of mine visit these boards, so I sometimes guard my opinions, but here is where we lay out people that we see having a significant upside move in the upcoming season.  For reference in my main league last year I selected Pascal Siakim with pick 190 (last pick in our draft) and Spencer Dinwiddie with pick 170.  Both were criminally under-drafted last year across the board.

If there is a decent response on this thread I will compile the results and we can see how good we are at this game :).

There are the obvious breakouts that are being touted industry wide (Bam, Isaac, Herro, Bridges, etc...), but I would love to see some deeper selections...take a risk.

Ill start with some guys I have drafted, as they are the easiest:

- Bruno Caboclo: 7'7" wingspan is legit. Has developed a legitimate catch and shoot game. Perfectly suited to be a combo big in this league.  Can play 4/5 on offense and can guard all 5 positions. Think he could be fantasy gold in the second half.  I don't think Jonas fits long term with this team, and think he is moved.  Once that happens, Bruno will back up the 4/5 and play major minutes.  Useable early in the year, could be a game changer in the second half.

- Tomas Satoransky: plays all three guard positions and is just a good basketball player.  Can get him after pick 100 in most leagues and probably ends up as a top 75 player.  Floor is extremely high.  As a starting guard last year he averaged 11/4.5/6.5 with 1 three, 1 steal and shot 48/80.  Stat stuffer all year long that you can count on.

- Derrick Jones: there always seems to be some STOCK players that gather the hype while others float under the radar.  I will mention a few other later, but Jones puts up the defensive stats already.  Word is that he spent all summer on catch and shoot.  As we have learned with a Robert Covington, it doesn't take a lot of scoring/rebounds/assists to be important if you can average 3 STOCKS and drop in a few threes a game.  One of the best athletes in the game with a will to play to defense.  That can sometimes lead to great things in fantasy basketball.

-----------------------------------

These are players i don't own that I was really high on going into draft season:

- Matisse Thybulle: Philly's options at SF are not strong (I expect Tobias to spend most of his time at PF this year).  They need a defensive glue guy and Thybulle fits the bill.  STOCK galore if he can get the minutes.  Also has a reasonable 3 pt shot and the defense is going to leave him wide open to double team the Process (who I expect to spend more time in the paint).  Target him 140+ and fill up some real stats late in the game.

- Tyus Jones: Super productive per minute guy.  An injury to Morant would spell HUGE minutes for Tyus and he becomes a top 60 player.  Even with a healthy Morant, I expect the two to play together a decent amount.  Target him in deeper leagues where you can use him as a bottom level guard, and cross your fingers for him to spend some time as the sole PG.  

- Lou Williams: You might ask: 'How can Lou be on this list?', and the answer is that he is still underrated.  He is going to put up his points, assists and threes with phenomenal FT until someone puts him in the grave.  I have a soft spot for Lou as I saw him play several times as a young pup at South Gwinnet (had a stud teammate, Mike Mercer, and boy were they fun to watch), and the guy just produces.  Average draft position in the 80's, and he often goes later than that.  If he slips past 75, you need to pick him up.  

Jarrett Allen: Deandre is washed up and Allen is emerging.  I don't think that signing effects JA as much as people are allowing it.  If Deandre wasn't on the roster, Allen would be going top 50 for sure.  My guess is that is exactly where he ends up anyway.  Take the value and snag him.  Doesn't hurt you anywhere, and has top 20 potential.

- Kevin Huerter: Built for the modern game.  Known for his shooting prowess, he can do more.  If you like Tyler Herro (which I do), then Huerter is a poor man's version.  Is going to play a lot of minutes this year, and should see his FT uptick in a big way.  After seeing Cam Reddish play in college, I am not a believer.  Huerter is going to be the guy filling it up from the wing, and he should be a nice selection later in your draft.  Think he could end up as a younger version of Evan Fournier.

Harry Giles: just checking to see if you were reading or browsing.  Avoid at all costs.

 

Bonus selection:

- Anfernee Simons: drafted him with pick 139 in a dynasty/deep keeper format (10 teams x 8 keepers).  I honestly don't know what to expect out of him, but his stroke is legit and repeatable.  He has good size, he is super young, and all of the reports out of Portland are very positive.  The Trailblazers have no back up PG (I expect CJ to play point when Damian is not on the court), their options behind CJ at the SG are extremely weak (Bazemore?), and Rodney Hood seems to be in line to start (if not Bazemore) at the SF.  Basically, Portland has made no effort to fill their SF and their backup G and SF positions (no more Evan Turner, no more Jake Layman...even swing forward players like Aminu and Harkless are gone).  Combine the opportunity with comments from the GM ('in terms of natural gifts, he is as talented as anyone we have every drafted') and Lillard ('He's (Anfernee) gonna be a star') and hes a guy to target late.

 

Thats my list for this year.  Draft talent over opportunity, and when the two happen to align (Siakiam), you can get something special.  Good luck to everyone this year.

 

PS, Dynasty Prediction:  Ja Morant is the better fantasy player than Zion Williamson over the course of his career.  Seems a little easier to make this prediction today than it was a few weeks ago when I first thought it, but while you almost have to take Zion as 1.1 in a dynasty re-draft, I think Morant will ultimately be the player to own.  He is Russ Westbrook back when Russ could shoot free throws.  

 

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Personally, No.  One of the most overrated players in the league.  Luol Deng Part Duex.  Solid midround pick, but shouldn't be drafted to be a superstar.  Draft as a high floor, low ceiling player.

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43 minutes ago, GJDHouse said:

Drafts are complete, opening games are hours away....time for people to go ahead and give up the names of the players they have been holding on to for a while.  I know that other league mates of mine visit these boards, so I sometimes guard my opinions, but here is where we lay out people that we see having a significant upside move in the upcoming season.  For reference in my main league last year I selected Pascal Siakim with pick 190 (last pick in our draft) and Spencer Dinwiddie with pick 170.  Both were criminally under-drafted last year across the board.

If there is a decent response on this thread I will compile the results and we can see how good we are at this game :).

There are the obvious breakouts that are being touted industry wide (Bam, Isaac, Herro, Bridges, etc...), but I would love to see some deeper selections...take a risk.

Ill start with some guys I have drafted, as they are the easiest:

- Bruno Caboclo: 7'7" wingspan is legit. Has developed a legitimate catch and shoot game. Perfectly suited to be a combo big in this league.  Can play 4/5 on offense and can guard all 5 positions. Think he could be fantasy gold in the second half.  I don't think Jonas fits long term with this team, and think he is moved.  Once that happens, Bruno will back up the 4/5 and play major minutes.  Useable early in the year, could be a game changer in the second half.

- Tomas Satoransky: plays all three guard positions and is just a good basketball player.  Can get him after pick 100 in most leagues and probably ends up as a top 75 player.  Floor is extremely high.  As a starting guard last year he averaged 11/4.5/6.5 with 1 three, 1 steal and shot 48/80.  Stat stuffer all year long that you can count on.

- Derrick Jones: there always seems to be some STOCK players that gather the hype while others float under the radar.  I will mention a few other later, but Jones puts up the defensive stats already.  Word is that he spent all summer on catch and shoot.  As we have learned with a Robert Covington, it doesn't take a lot of scoring/rebounds/assists to be important if you can average 3 STOCKS and drop in a few threes a game.  One of the best athletes in the game with a will to play to defense.  That can sometimes lead to great things in fantasy basketball.

-----------------------------------

These are players i don't own that I was really high on going into draft season:

- Matisse Thybulle: Philly's options at SF are not strong (I expect Tobias to spend most of his time at PF this year).  They need a defensive glue guy and Thybulle fits the bill.  STOCK galore if he can get the minutes.  Also has a reasonable 3 pt shot and the defense is going to leave him wide open to double team the Process (who I expect to spend more time in the paint).  Target him 140+ and fill up some real stats late in the game.

- Tyus Jones: Super productive per minute guy.  An injury to Morant would spell HUGE minutes for Tyus and he becomes a top 60 player.  Even with a healthy Morant, I expect the two to play together a decent amount.  Target him in deeper leagues where you can use him as a bottom level guard, and cross your fingers for him to spend some time as the sole PG.  

- Lou Williams: You might ask: 'How can Lou be on this list?', and the answer is that he is still underrated.  He is going to put up his points, assists and threes with phenomenal FT until someone puts him in the grave.  I have a soft spot for Lou as I saw him play several times as a young pup at South Gwinnet (had a stud teammate, Mike Mercer, and boy were they fun to watch), and the guy just produces.  Average draft position in the 80's, and he often goes later than that.  If he slips past 75, you need to pick him up.  

Jarrett Allen: Deandre is washed up and Allen is emerging.  I don't think that signing effects JA as much as people are allowing it.  If Deandre wasn't on the roster, Allen would be going top 50 for sure.  My guess is that is exactly where he ends up anyway.  Take the value and snag him.  Doesn't hurt you anywhere, and has top 20 potential.

- Kevin Huerter: Built for the modern game.  Known for his shooting prowess, he can do more.  If you like Tyler Herro (which I do), then Huerter is a poor man's version.  Is going to play a lot of minutes this year, and should see his FT uptick in a big way.  After seeing Cam Reddish play in college, I am not a believer.  Huerter is going to be the guy filling it up from the wing, and he should be a nice selection later in your draft.  Think he could end up as a younger version of Evan Fournier.

Harry Giles: just checking to see if you were reading or browsing.  Avoid at all costs.

 

Bonus selection:

- Anfernee Simons: drafted him with pick 139 in a dynasty/deep keeper format (10 teams x 8 keepers).  I honestly don't know what to expect out of him, but his stroke is legit and repeatable.  He has good size, he is super young, and all of the reports out of Portland are very positive.  The Trailblazers have no back up PG (I expect CJ to play point when Damian is not on the court), their options behind CJ at the SG are extremely weak (Bazemore?), and Rodney Hood seems to be in line to start (if not Bazemore) at the SF.  Basically, Portland has made no effort to fill their SF and their backup G and SF positions (no more Evan Turner, no more Jake Layman...even swing forward players like Aminu and Harkless are gone).  Combine the opportunity with comments from the GM ('in terms of natural gifts, he is as talented as anyone we have every drafted') and Lillard ('He's (Anfernee) gonna be a star') and hes a guy to target late.

 

Thats my list for this year.  Draft talent over opportunity, and when the two happen to align (Siakiam), you can get something special.  Good luck to everyone this year.

 

PS, Dynasty Prediction:  Ja Morant is the better fantasy player than Zion Williamson over the course of his career.  Seems a little easier to make this prediction today than it was a few weeks ago when I first thought it, but while you almost have to take Zion as 1.1 in a dynasty re-draft, I think Morant will ultimately be the player to own.  He is Russ Westbrook back when Russ could shoot free throws.  

 

I'm high on Sato and Huerter but I havent hadd the time to take a look at the others. Too bad, the asking price for Sato is Ingram :/

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Dejounte 

Criminally underrated. Beast season is coming. 
 

SAS will not only make the playoffs but top 4 record in the West this season. My prediction. 

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ADP's over 100 on Y! in no particular order:

Feel good about - Bogdan, McGee, Zach Collins, Prince

Intrigued - Clarke, Herro, Dragic (old i know), NAW, Fultz, PJ, Culver, Noel

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it seems to me there are a lot of breakout candidates this year:

 

Those who intrigue me the most are Bam, Shai, Caris and Dejounte

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Super high on Thybulle and Huerter.

Thybulle - his lack of scoring/mins may make him look less appealing but trust me when I say his stocks will be the only thing making him valuable - and it will be VERY valuable. 

Huerter - 2nd year improvement in an uptempo Hawks system, Schlenk wants to build the next Golden State with Trae and Huerter playing the Splash bro roles - a recipe for success. Not to mention his stroke is probably one of the smoothest I've seen in ages. I can see a jump to 17 ppg this year with 2 threes and 1-1.3 steals.

Also want to add Zach Collins to the mix.

Collins - 3rd year breakout incoming, starting at the 4 this year and should be playing at the 5 behind Whiteside at times - plenty of opportunity for a talented 3-shooting rim protector. Can see some mini-Brolo lines with slightly higher FG%, more rebounds and slightly lesser 3s this year, and he's avaliable in the late rounds.

Edited by Espoiral
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1 hour ago, Del Rio said:

Can't believe no mention of Anunoby.

I do love Zach Collins this year too.

As a Torontonian I am contractually obligated to hype up OG :)

But I do think he's poised for a breakout. Last year was weird, with nagging injuries and him not being in the right head space with the death of his father. He's looked really good in the pre-season though, and with Kawhi gone he is fully in as the starting 3. Lots of usage and opportunity out there for him to have a big season. Along with Siakam, he's the future of the Raps.

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Anyone think Lonzo is primed to break out? NO's high pace and pairing with jrue seems like a great opportunity for him to show why he was the #2 overall pick.

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2 hours ago, chaiway said:

ADP's over 100 on Y! in no particular order:

Feel good about - Bogdan, McGee, Zach Collins, Prince

Intrigued - Clarke, Herro, Dragic (old i know), NAW, Fultz, PJ, Culver, Noel

 

I saw a little bit of him in preseason and he looked pretty good for a guy I figured would be overseas by now.  Maybe he can be a stocks guy this year back end top 100.

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Potential Breakouts (that were ADP values) :

 

Julius Randle

Shai Gilgeous

Terry Rozier

Caris Levert

Zach Collins

Gary Harris 

OG Anunoby

Tyler Herro

Dario Saric

 

Got almost all these guys in some drafts. My teams will either suck or be amazing!

 

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23 minutes ago, laurilegend said:

 

I saw a little bit of him in preseason and he looked pretty good for a guy I figured would be overseas by now.  Maybe he can be a stocks guy this year back end top 100.

 

This is not news - It's been a few years of the same story for him. Noel is a fantasy machine but is buried behind Steven Adams in OKC.

If he gets minutes he will produce. Lottery ticket (top 30-50) if Adams somehow gets traded and they don't get a C in return. Will produce even in limited minutes especially in stocks. 

Edited by chaiway
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1 minute ago, chaiway said:

 

You must be new to basketball as it's been a few years of this same setting for him. Noel is a fantasy machine but is buried behind Steven Adams in OKC.

If he gets minutes he will produce. Lottery ticket (top 30-50) if Adams somehow gets traded and they don't get a C in return. Will produce even in limited minutes especially in stocks. 

 

lol wut?  he hasn't been fantasy relevant even in deep leagues going on three years now as anything other than emergency streamer.  The last time he averaged > 2 stocks a game was 2016 -- when he played all of 51 games.  Which is about his over under given injury history.

top 50?  Bruh he'll be lucky to crack the top 100, which is exactly what I just posted above.

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9 minutes ago, laurilegend said:

 

lol wut?  he hasn't been fantasy relevant even in deep leagues going on three years now as anything other than emergency streamer.  The last time he averaged > 2 stocks a game was 2016 -- when he played all of 51 games.  Which is about his over under given injury history.

top 50?  Bruh he'll be lucky to crack the top 100, which is exactly what I just posted above.

 

last year he averaged 2.1 stocks in under 14 mins 😎

 

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Just now, n3gative said:

 

last year he averaged 2.1 stocks in under 14 mins 😎

 

 

that is true I misread his stat line on b-ref.  and it doesn't change a single thing in my post!  

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16 minutes ago, laurilegend said:

 

lol wut?  he hasn't been fantasy relevant even in deep leagues going on three years now as anything other than emergency streamer.  The last time he averaged > 2 stocks a game was 2016 -- when he played all of 51 games.  Which is about his over under given injury history.

top 50?  Bruh he'll be lucky to crack the top 100, which is exactly what I just posted above.

Didn't mean to get into it on Noel.

You are correct that he didn't do much in the last 2 seasons with very low minutes played (per 36 he was still #14 & #15 the last 2 seasons).

Repeating what I actually said... lottery ticket... he's buried behind Adams but if he gets minutes due to an injury or a trade (OKC is a seller) then he has a great chance to produce and yes, put up top 50 #s. 

Edited by chaiway

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What about K Nunn in Miami? He had great #'s in preseason and unlike Herro, he might be able to guard somebody. 

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Just now, rabaak said:

What about K Nunn in Miami? He had great #'s in preseason and unlike Herro, he might be able to guard somebody. 

 

Image result for confused.gif

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Guys I liked a lot at their ADPs:

SGA/Miles Bridges/Oubre: They have gotten some hype, but is still going after 70 ADP on Yahoo (Bridges 85). I feel I have Bridges everywhere.

Randle: His lack of stocks hurts his upside, but he is like a poor man's John Collins.

Bacon and Norman Powell: Limited by being mostly scoring/threes/percentage guys that are basically free in standard leagues and really cheap in deeper leagues. I could see either of them hitting close to top-100 value as specialists.

Bamba: A good blocks specialist with potential to be much more.

Caboclo: Really just a deep-league guy for now, but has a fantasy friendly game.

DJJ: See above. Drafting him also gives you an excuse to watch this again: 

 

 

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Ingram is a breakout candidate. I got him for $3 in auction this year lol. A lot of people just down on him but he has always had a lot of talent. Now he will be the 1st or 2nd option on offense. Should easily score more than 20 ppg but how much of a breakout he can have will depend on his stocks and 3s. he only averaged 0.7 3s on the lakers because of the way they used him and I could see him easily averaging like 1.3-1.5 on pelicans. 

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