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brockpapersizer

Dansby Swanson 2020 Outlook

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I know I know. SS is super deep. That being said, there's a lot to like here and he could be a very late SS or MI option for people in drafts this year.

 

"Dansby Swanson (17 HR; 25.99 eHR)
I love me some Dansby Swanson for 2020. Based on his quality of contact and power metrics, he already broke out in 2019. However, thanks to missed time with an injury and his struggles upon his return in September, he’s going to come at a sizeable discount on draft day. He’s essentially undrafted in 12-team formats with an early ADP of 268, but I do suspect that to rise closer to 225 come March. Now, Swanson crushed his pulled fly balls but only 15.6% of his fly balls were hit to left field. Additionally, his home park (SunTrust Park) suppresses home runs. These two factors lost him about three home runs in 2019, BUT that’s factored into my equation and he still underperformed by nine home runs. How? Well, he bumped his barrel rate from a meager 4.1% to 10.1% and his AVG EV jumped three MPH! He’s in the top 30% for both metrics right around guys like Mookie Betts, Mike Moustakas, Gleyber Torres, and Rhys Hoskins. Does that mean I think he’ll hit 30 home runs in 2020? Not necessarily, but it’s not out of the question. Gimme gimme! "

above from http://www.freezestats.com/2019/11/introducing-earned-home-runs-ehr-2019-outliers-fantasy-baseball/

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So far injuries have kept him back, he was on his way to quite a season last year until he got hurt. He was literally looking like a 30/15 guy. Still young and I think still growing. Handling off speed pitches really well. Key will be where is lands in the lineup and a real case can be made for Ozzie Albies to hit in the 2 hole, so I see him hitting 6 or 7, which would be fine, just avoid the black 8 hole. He should put up respectable power/speed numbers. As noted by OP, the depth is strong so he could be a nice buy low guy while you stock other positions. His defense is elite (if it wasn't Ozzie would be SS), so he should play tons of games. Again, two straight seasons ruined by injuries, so there is risk. 

Edited by kwolf68

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On 11/15/2019 at 1:59 PM, kwolf68 said:

So far injuries have kept him back, he was on his way to quite a season last year until he got hurt. He was literally looking like a 30/15 guy. Still young and I think still growing. Handling off speed pitches really well. Key will be where is lands in the lineup and a real case can be made for Ozzie Albies to hit in the 2 hole, so I see him hitting 6 or 7, which would be fine, just avoid the black 8 hole. He should put up respectable power/speed numbers. As noted by OP, the depth is strong so he could be a nice buy low guy while you stock other positions. His defense is elite (if it wasn't Ozzie would be SS), so he should play tons of games. Again, two straight seasons ruined by injuries, so there is risk. 

You are right batting order spot is big for him, so they have already signed Will Smith and my guess is they will pursue a starter as well not Stras or Cole, but that next level down, a lot like them for another Giants lefty - madbum, so if they go that route and likely dont bring Donaldson back, I would guess he would hit 2 if they move Albies to 1 and move Acuna into the 3 spot OR if you keep top order same then I think he is likely in the 6 hole, doubt he gets to 8.  Agree its a bad spot because guys dont run in the 8 spot because P is gonna sac you over and you dont risk getting thrown out which then is 2 outs because Pitcher is at the plate.  

He is a guy I would love on the cheap in my MI spot

 

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Swanson might be the most undervalued guy in fantasy baseball right now. I genuinely think he has a (good) chance to go 270+ AVG with 30 HR and 15 SB and he’s not getting drafted 

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No need to draft a SS early with Dansby Swanson available in the 16th-17th round in most drafts.

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SS is deep once again and his current ADP, though expected to rise, is a steal. He’s a definite target of mine. The injury last year hampered his numbers and is perhaps the reason why people seem to be sleeping on him. 

Edited by BostonCajun

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from that article, the best hype part was comparing him to JD Martinez in terms of hitting fastballs. He isn't great vs secondaries though, so he'll have to adjust if pitchers just throw him breaking stuff.

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Its either Swanson! Or Swan song for Dansby this season...

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On 11/2/2019 at 1:11 PM, brockpapersizer said:

I know I know. SS is super deep. That being said, there's a lot to like here and he could be a very late SS or MI option for people in drafts this year.

 

"Dansby Swanson (17 HR; 25.99 eHR)
I love me some Dansby Swanson for 2020. Based on his quality of contact and power metrics, he already broke out in 2019. However, thanks to missed time with an injury and his struggles upon his return in September, he’s going to come at a sizeable discount on draft day. He’s essentially undrafted in 12-team formats with an early ADP of 268, but I do suspect that to rise closer to 225 come March. Now, Swanson crushed his pulled fly balls but only 15.6% of his fly balls were hit to left field. Additionally, his home park (SunTrust Park) suppresses home runs. These two factors lost him about three home runs in 2019, BUT that’s factored into my equation and he still underperformed by nine home runs. How? Well, he bumped his barrel rate from a meager 4.1% to 10.1% and his AVG EV jumped three MPH! He’s in the top 30% for both metrics right around guys like Mookie Betts, Mike Moustakas, Gleyber Torres, and Rhys Hoskins. Does that mean I think he’ll hit 30 home runs in 2020? Not necessarily, but it’s not out of the question. Gimme gimme! "

above from http://www.freezestats.com/2019/11/introducing-earned-home-runs-ehr-2019-outliers-fantasy-baseball/

 

Letting everyone know about my maturity through this tumultuous year. I took no victory laps in April this year, waited all the way until the end of July.

 

 

 

 

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I'll be thrilled with a Top 10 SS finish, but hey, obviously I won't complain about better. 😀

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Posted (edited)

Another HR tonight.. off Glasnow.

top 5 SS you heard it here first.

Edited by KingJoffrey
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My Dansby Swanson week 1 victory lap just went for a 2nd. 0-2 against a red hot Glasnow and worked his way back to 3-2 and took him yard to center

 

You love to see it.

 

 

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On 5/13/2020 at 6:42 PM, dfstout said:

Its either Swanson! Or Swan song for Dansby this season...

 

Swanson

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On 7/28/2020 at 12:08 AM, brockpapersizer said:

My Dansby Swanson week 1 victory lap just went for a 2nd. 0-2 against a red hot Glasnow and worked his way back to 3-2 and took him yard to center

 

You love to see it.

 

 

What a great swing. Showing people now why he was so highly touted as a kid.

Last time he'll be available cheap in drafts, hope you all bought in.

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