bluefrogguy

Shohei Ohtani 2020 Outlook

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I think one of the tougher players to forecast for several reasons:

1. His value is so league dependent- much more value in daily leagues; much less in leagues where he is split into two players.

2. Uncertainty revolving about how he will be used- how many ABs and IPs to project.

3. Coming off T-J and the late season surgery knee surgery lends some uncertainty.

4. Was kinda streaky last year starting off hot and going through some concerning cold stretches. 

5. How do account for lost ABs (and to a lesser extent IP) based on usage? Add in replacement level stats, knowing that at least in daily league you aren't going to take a 0 in that roster slot?

Anyway current Steamer projections:

Hitting 543 PA 28 HR, 78 R, 85 RBI, 12 SB, .280 AVG .875 OPS

Pitching 137 IP 10-7 .378 ERA 1.23 WHIP 167 Ks

 

If he does hit those projections, what round production is that?  My guess is that most player rater systems he'd probably be the #1 player with those stats.  But it's obviously more complicated than that. In terms of "player rater" doesn't seem fair that other players who play one way get 0s in all the opposite stat categories- prob more accurate to give replacement level stats in the other categories. And the steamer projections seem a bit optimistic, especially hitting. PA appear high to me if he gets the day before and the day after each start off. Maybe more like low 400s?  But in that regard, if he is out of the lineup, assuming a daily league, you would be able to plug in a replacement level production for the lost ABs.

 

Bottom line for me thinking about the big picture, in a weekly league I won't touch him, but in a daily league, I think there is value based on his current early ADP of 53. Injury risk and usage questions will probably depress value, but some big upside and profit potential IMO. 

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I love Ohtani and think his upside is freakish.  This said, I'm not paying for 4th-5th round prices for those numbers, and I don't think anyone is; on the contrary, we're paying 4th-5th round price for his upside. 

For context, here's Steamer's 2020 projection for Jorge Polanco: 641 PA, 18 HR, 84 R, 81 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG, .796 OPS. 

Comparing I see more PAs, less power, marginally less counting stats, and less SBs (though I think Polanco runs more in 2020).  At 641 PAs, we should assume Ohtani goes 30-100-100-15 with room in the power department, and we'd all pay the current price tag for that.  But he only qualifies at UTIL, is injury prone and likely won't reach that many PAs, and you can get Polanco production many rounds later.  I'll pass at the current ADP and target some good SPs or more consistent hitters.

Edited by En Votto Veritas
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6 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I love Ohtani and think his upside is freakish.  This said, I'm not paying for 4th-5th round prices for those numbers, and I don't think anyone is; on the contrary, we're paying 4th-5th round price for his upside. 

For context, here's Steamer's 2020 projection for Jorge Polanco: 641 PA, 18 HR, 84 R, 81 RBI, 7 SB, .280 AVG, .796 OPS. 

Comparing I see more PAs, less power, marginally less counting stats, and less SBs (though I think Polanco runs more in 2020).  At 641 PAs, we should assume Ohtani goes 30-100-100-15 with room in the power department, and we'd all pay the current price tag for that.  But he only qualifies at UTIL, is injury prone and likely won't reach that many PAs, and you can get Polanco production many rounds later.  I'll pass at the current ADP and target some good SPs or more consistent hitters.

 

Agree with your analysis of his hitting, but I can't help but notice you don't comment on the value he gives at SP.  Obviously alone his hitting and pitching stats don't compare with others being drafted around him.  But how do you value their combined effect?  I think he is one of the tougher players to evaluate for that reason.

Obviously very league settings dependent.  His value goes up in leagues where he is one player, leagues with daily lineups, multiple Util slots and leagues with limited weekly transactions meant to reduce streaming.  But how much up? In leagues where he is two players and or weekly lineups (which essentially makes him two players) I'm probably avoiding him. The benefit of his roster flexibility is gone in such leagues. But in the 1 Ohtani, daily transaction leagues, I'm thinking he's probably undervalued as a 4th or 5th rounder.  The injury question probably limits how high his ADP will go, but there is 1st round upside in such leagues.    

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On 11/4/2019 at 12:28 PM, bluefrogguy said:

 

Agree with your analysis of his hitting, but I can't help but notice you don't comment on the value he gives at SP.  Obviously alone his hitting and pitching stats don't compare with others being drafted around him.  But how do you value their combined effect?  I think he is one of the tougher players to evaluate for that reason.

Obviously very league settings dependent.  His value goes up in leagues where he is one player, leagues with daily lineups, multiple Util slots and leagues with limited weekly transactions meant to reduce streaming.  But how much up? In leagues where he is two players and or weekly lineups (which essentially makes him two players) I'm probably avoiding him. The benefit of his roster flexibility is gone in such leagues. But in the 1 Ohtani, daily transaction leagues, I'm thinking he's probably undervalued as a 4th or 5th rounder.  The injury question probably limits how high his ADP will go, but there is 1st round upside in such leagues.    

 

Well I only play in Yahoo leagues where he is two players, so if I played in a league where he was both a hitter and a pitcher I'd value him higher due to the versatility (basically getting two players for the price of one).  In leagues where he is two players I'd likely pass on him as a SP due to uncertainties and the fact that I think he's a much better hitter than pitcher.

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Not relevant for a 2020 discussion, but I heard Paul Sporer and Rotowire's Ian Kahn commenting on Sporer's podcast that they could see Ohtani someday being used as a full time DH and closer.  Hadn't thought about that makes some sense. Fantasy wise, if that were to happen in two Ohtani leagues, Ohtani the batter's value would obviously go up as a full time DH. Ohtani the pitcher's value would be harder to gauge as a closer. Probably a little lower, I'd guess. In one Ohtani leagues, I think his overall value would be higher.  

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How are sites handling this UT/SP thing since he didn’t pitch last year?

He SHOULD be eligible in both, but it looks like he may have to make a few starts before he’s P eligible.

Kind of dumb.  A pitcher who missed the season last year is still eligible at P

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He should qualify at DH only for this season.  He only played DH last year.  Once he meets the requirements for pitching in season then he can be started there.

 

It would be interesting to see if they let him hit in games he pitchers.  They could DH for one of their catchers.

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6 hours ago, murraygd13 said:

He should qualify at DH only for this season.  He only played DH last year.  Once he meets the requirements for pitching in season then he can be started there.

 

It would be interesting to see if they let him hit in games he pitchers.  They could DH for one of their catchers.


which is dumb.  Tijuan Walker doesn’t need three starts before hes Sp eligible this year.  We wouldn’t need to leave Knebel on the bench until he gets a few appearances.  ohtani has flummoxed fantasy baseball programmers for some reason.  

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2 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:


which is dumb.  Tijuan Walker doesn’t need three starts before hes Sp eligible this year.  We wouldn’t need to leave Knebel on the bench until he gets a few appearances.  ohtani has flummoxed fantasy baseball programmers for some reason.  

Those last guys recorded outings are as a pitcher.  Ohtani played LAST YEAR..this really shouldnt be that difficult.

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15 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Those last guys recorded outings are as a pitcher.  Ohtani played LAST YEAR..this really shouldnt be that difficult.

 

He's two players in one.  It's not like a 1b who also plays OF.  He's a pitcher and a batter.  They've separated the two positions since the beginning of fantasy baseball.  

14 minutes ago, murraygd13 said:

Should all the position players that appeared in a game as a pitcher last year qualify at pitcher?

 

McCullers will be a P this season.  If Michael Lorenzen, who had at least 10 appearances as an OF last season, misses the year, he should come back as a P and an OF (or at least Util).  ...not sure what good that'll do you but still.  

I get it, but i don't.  They aren't treating him as every other pitcher would be treated.  They're saying he only played one position (UT) last year, and that's his default.  

 

If he missed the entire year and didn't play at all, then what?  Would he be an UT, P, or both?

Edited by kidtwentytwo
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1 minute ago, kidtwentytwo said:

 

He's two players in one.  It's not like a 1b who also plays OF.  He's a pitcher and a batter.  They've separated the two positions since the beginning of fantasy baseball.  

 

McCullers will be a P this season.  If Michael Lorenzen, who had at least 10 appearances as an OF last season, misses the year, he should come back as a P and an OF (or at least Util).  ...not sure what good that'll do you but still.  

I get it, but i don't.  They aren't treating him as every other pitcher would be treated.  They're saying he only played one position (UT) last year, and that's his default.  

But he did only play one position last year..he hasn't pitched since 2018.

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3 hours ago, kidtwentytwo said:


which is dumb.  Tijuan Walker doesn’t need three starts before hes Sp eligible this year.  We wouldn’t need to leave Knebel on the bench until he gets a few appearances.  ohtani has flummoxed fantasy baseball programmers for some reason.  

 

From what was discussed last year a lot of the legacy systems that these fantasy websites use can't handle a player that is a pitcher and batter. They can overhaul the system and fix this but why waste time and money all for one player. I get its frustrating but nothing we can do on many sites.

I said this last year but if he's ever one player on a site he becomes extremely valuable. An elite pitcher who you can also start 2-3 days a week on offense, we've never been able to determine the value of a player like that. I know his rookie year some sites we may have but before he started in the MLB most people didn't respect his bat but he has outperformed all expectations offensively.

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18 hours ago, murraygd13 said:

But he did only play one position last year..he hasn't pitched since 2018.

When any other pitcher gets TJ. They don't lose P eligibility. That is the point.

Rules and conventional wisdom don't pass the sniff test when an exception presents itself. Which is what Othani is.

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On 12/30/2019 at 11:33 AM, murraygd13 said:

He should qualify at DH only for this season.  He only played DH last year.  Once he meets the requirements for pitching in season then he can be started there.

 

It would be interesting to see if they let him hit in games he pitchers.  They could DH for one of their catchers.

 

That's not how the DH works.  You can only DH for the pitcher.

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Posted (edited)

I look at valuing Ohtani (on ESPN) like this.

 

If we're using those projections, that's almost dead on what Javi Baez gave you last year (minus the positional value).  Maybe Ramon Laureano might be a better comp?  Although he was a little lighter on the RBIs.

Pitching-wise, that's almost exactly Anthony DeSclafani.

So, where to draft him.  At an ADP of 53, that would be roughly Whit Merrifield, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Giancarlo Stanton, Lucas Giolito range?  Would you trade one of those players for Ramon Laureano and Anthony DeSclafani if you didn't have to burn the extra roster spot.

Edited by 89Topps

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OT:  Ramon Laureano missed a chunk of time last year or his RBIs would be higher.  And yeah if I didn't have to burn the extra roster space I'd take him and DeSclafani on any of my dynasties over any of the above mentioned because Laureano gives me both power and speed as well as youth and DeSclafani is a good end of rotation guy as a throw in.  Giollito is the better pitcher for sure but I think Laureano who is both young (more upside over the years to come than Merrifield as a result) and a 5 tool lite guy is the pick of the litter.  And certainly over the aging and seemingly always injured and completely flat-footed Stanton especially in the juiced ball era where Stanton's value is much less.

If Ohtani can slide into 1B for just 5 starts this season (Yahoo platform) his value goes way up for both this year and next since 5 starts would carry over through 2021 as well.  Will they give him any 1B starts?

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In leagues where he's split,  where would you value the SP only version?  

Pitching sucks and I'm not sure where to put him on the stack 

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1 hour ago, WahooManiac said:

In leagues where he's split,  where would you value the SP only version?  

Pitching sucks and I'm not sure where to put him on the stack 

Around the 25-30th SP...I'm guessing they won't want to push him too much so even if he's back to pitching as well as he did prior to the injury they will limit his innings to around 130 or so.  I think they already said or at least floated the idea of only pitching him once a week.  That would be around 20-25 starts maximum if that's the case..average 5-6 IP per start; gives you a max of 150 IP.

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On 12/31/2019 at 2:50 PM, Slatykamora said:

When any other pitcher gets TJ. They don't lose P eligibility. That is the point

Ya, and when any other pitcher is recovering from TJ, they don't play OF, or any other position that would affect eligibility. That's his point.

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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

Ya, and when any other pitcher is recovering from TJ, they don't play OF, or any other position that would affect eligibility. That's his point.

 

Bruh... what other pitcher normally does anything other than pitch?

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Posted (edited)

Yes, technically he should lose SP eligibility, but that would be lame and not fun and no one should be arguing in favor of it.

Edited by 89Topps

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On 11/11/2019 at 5:27 PM, bluefrogguy said:

Not relevant for a 2020 discussion, but I heard Paul Sporer and Rotowire's Ian Kahn commenting on Sporer's podcast that they could see Ohtani someday being used as a full time DH and closer.  Hadn't thought about that makes some sense. Fantasy wise, if that were to happen in two Ohtani leagues, Ohtani the batter's value would obviously go up as a full time DH. Ohtani the pitcher's value would be harder to gauge as a closer. Probably a little lower, I'd guess. In one Ohtani leagues, I think his overall value would be higher.  

I'm going to say in one Ohtani leagues that him being a closer would significantly hurt his value.

Let's think about this, as a one player you have to choose on a given day whether he is going to be in your UTIL slot or your Pitcher slot. So as an SP with scheduled starts it makes it very easy to determine when to put him in your SP slot and when in UTIL. However, if he's a closer, unless they bench him certain days from hitting and tell you ahead of time it would be difficult to blindly guess when to stick him in RP. If they use him as a DH then bring him in to close, forget it, good luck guessing when to hit or pitch.

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