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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

12 teamer 5x5 redraft league.  No overall prize.  Surprise 1.1

 

NFBC $50s:
Round 1:

1 1 Cole, Gerrit P
 

Never thought I would see that

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18 hours ago, meh2 said:

It's crazy to me to see Alvarez going a round or two later than Alonso. Am I the only one that thinks Alonso is going to regress significantly this year?

 

            Barrel %  Exit Velo  Launch Angle  xBA   xSLG  Hard Hit %  Hard Hit %(FG)   K%   BB%    LD%  O Swing%  Contact %  SwStr % 

Alonso   15.8         90.6            14.8             .257     .542        42.3              42.0              26.4  10.4     18.0       34.6            73.2          12.4 

Alvarez   17.2        92.2            13.4             .289     .602        48.9              51.1              25.5  14.1     24.9       30.7            75.9           10.4

 

Add in that Alvarez has the home park advantage (7th according to ESPN Park Factors vs 26th for Citi Field) and a lineup advantage (Houston was 3rd in runs scored vs NY Mets finishing 13th) and I don't think it's really close. Alonso's batting average floor scares me and I expect significant regression in his HR/FB rate. I get that Alvarez is UT-only in some formats, but I'm buying him at this ADP and fading Alonso.  

 

 

Wouldn't the objective anaylsis to compare Alonso to Alvarez in the same PAs? He was exposed more than Alvarez as he started from OD. Alonso hit some brick walls in the 2nd half if you remember.

Alonso's first 367 PAs: .281/.373/.634  .410 wOBA  29 HRs  .353 ISO, 10.1 BB Rate,  24.8 K rate, 11.4 SwStr, 45.4 Hard  .302 BABIP

Alvarez 369 PAs:          .313/.412/.655  .432 wOBA  27 HRs  .342 ISO  14.1 BB Rate,  25.5 K rate, 10.4 SwStr, 51.1 Hard .366 BABIP

 

1.) Alvarez is a better overall hitter, but i don't think you can question significant regression for Alonso and ignore that Alvarez also notable risk of regression. They were not that different in terms of contact rate or K's.

2.) Alvarez better feel for hitting should muffs some of the potential regression, but it's a fact that Alonso has gone thru more iterations of adjustments and counter adjustments Alvarez has not.

3.) I'd Trust Alonso's HR output more than Alvarez, he hit those 29 HR with April/May.

4.) Yes, i'd draft Alvarez over Alonso, but i completely dis-agree that its "not close". Nor do I think the ADP difference by march will be 2 rounds difference in favor of alonso. S

Edited by Slatykamora

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On 11/12/2019 at 7:39 AM, bluefrogguy said:

I like discount Harper is getting. He hit .260/ 35 HR/ 15 SB/ 114 RBI/98 R in a "disappointing" year.  Hitting his prime. I always avoided him when he went in the first round as I thought he was overhyped, but the pendulum has swung too far back the other way. Great value in the round, IMO.

My frustration at Harper inflation through the years is well noted on these boards - but agree 100% if Im late second/early third and getting him - yep sign me up.  I generally like big free agent signings in their second seasons, I just think there has to be a natural relaxation, this game (especially hitting) is not one you want to do when "pressing" - although still like Harper mostly in roto formats.  

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23 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

i fully expect Acuna to be ADP 1

Agree, I dont think that its wrong going different direction, but this would be my guess as well. 

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In leagues where there is a 10 game minimum, Yordan will be an OF.

He also doesn’t seem to be destined for UT forever.  No telling how long that would take, though.  Eventually Correa will fracture a rib opening a pack of skittles and the Astros will have to shuffle guys around.  

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One more.  Beginning to see patterns now

 

NFBC $150 Draft Champions
Round 1:

1 1 Acuna Jr., Ronald OF
2 1 Yelich, Christian OF
3 1 Trout, Mike OF
4 1 Betts, Mookie OF
5 1 Bellinger, Cody 1B
6 1 Cole, Gerrit P
7 1 deGrom, Jacob P
8 1 Bregman, Alex 3B
9 1 Lindor, Francisco SS
10 1 Arenado, Nolan 3B
11 1 Story, Trevor SS
12 1 Soto, Juan OF
13 1 Verlander, Justin P
14 1 Turner, Trea SS
15 1 Scherzer, Max P

Round 2:
16 2 Freeman, Freddie 1B
17 2 Buehler, Walker P
18 2 Clevinger, Mike P
19 2 Judge, Aaron OF
20 2 Tatis Jr., Fernando MI
21 2 Bieber, Shane P
22 2 Ramirez, Jose 3B
23 2 Flaherty, Jack P
24 2 Devers, Rafael 3B
25 2 Strasburg, Stephen P
26 2 Alonso, Pete CI
27 2 Torres, Gleyber 2B
28 2 Harper, Bryce OF
29 2 Villar, Jonathan SS
30 2 Altuve, Jose 2B

Round 3:
31 3 Rendon, Anthony 3B
32 3 Martinez, J.D. OF
33 3 Mondesi, Adalberto SS
34 3 Baez, Javier SS
35 3 Bogaerts, Xander SS
36 3 Marte, Ketel 2B
37 3 Meadows, Austin OF
38 3 Marte, Starling OF
39 3 Snell, Blake P
40 3 Albies, Ozzie 2B
41 3 Springer, George OF
42 3 Morton, Charlie P
43 3 Alvarez, Yordan UT
44 3 Blackmon, Charlie OF
45 3 Sale, Chris P

Round 4:
46 4 Stanton, Giancarlo OF
47 4 Kershaw, Clayton P
48 4 Merrifield, Whit 2B
49 4 Corbin, Patrick P
50 4 Bryant, Kris 3B
51 4 Paddack, Chris P
52 4 Greinke, Zack P
53 4 Glasnow, Tyler P
54 4 Hiura, Keston 2B
55 4 Semien, Marcus SS
56 4 Castillo, Luis P
57 4 Nola, Aaron P
58 4 Giolito, Lucas P
59 4 Syndergaard, Noah P
60 4 Correa, Carlos SS

Round 5:
61 5 Paxton, James P
62 5 Muncy, Max 2B
63 5 Severino, Luis P
64 5 Machado, Manny 3B
65 5 Realmuto, J.T. C
66 5 Jimenez, Eloy OF
67 5 Soler, Jorge OF
68 5 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 3B
69 5 Ohtani, Shohei UT
70 5 Robles, Victor OF
71 5 Suarez, Eugenio 3B
72 5 Gallo, Joey OF
73 5 Pham, Tommy OF
74 5 Darvish, Yu P
75 5 Bichette, Bo SS

Round 6:
76 6 Rizzo, Anthony CI
77 6 Olson, Matt 1B
78 6 Moncada, Yoan 3B
79 6 Hader, Josh P
80 6 Woodruff, Brandon P
81 6 Yates, Kirby P
82 6 Goldschmidt, Paul 1B
83 6 Rosario, Eddie OF
84 6 Gray, Sonny P
85 6 Montas, Frankie P
86 6 Soroka, Mike P
87 6 Abreu, Jose 1B
88 6 Bauer, Trevor P
89 6 Osuna, Roberto P
90 6 Carrasco, Carlos P

 

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3 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

Love seeing JoRam get respect after a terrible start to 2019.

 

was hoping his discount would be better. damn.  ill still gun for him in the 2nd tho.

 

Severino might be my Ace on a few teams this year.  i like Nola's price too.  snell in the 3rd could return 1st round value

Edited by jfazz23

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Looks like Arenado comes at a discount next year. I'm in.

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13 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

 

was hoping his discount would be better. damn.  ill still gun for him in the 2nd tho.

 

Severino might be my Ace on a few teams this year.  i like Nola's price too.  snell in the 3rd could return 1st round value

 

10 hours ago, exm said:

Looks like Arenado comes at a discount next year. I'm in.

 

Lots of discounts this year. I love Snell anywhere after 25ish ADP - sign me up. I think people are finally buying in the ceiling of JoRam. His floor/ceiling gap may be the biggest in baseball, but good lord, we he in on, there's almost no one better.

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Not sure anyone in the first round is a tremendous value.  
 

not many hitters in the first round who aren’t a threat to run. 

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On 11/13/2019 at 2:01 PM, kidtwentytwo said:

One more.  Beginning to see patterns now

 

NFBC $150 Draft Champions
Round 1:

1 1 Acuna Jr., Ronald OF
2 1 Yelich, Christian OF
3 1 Trout, Mike OF
4 1 Betts, Mookie OF
5 1 Bellinger, Cody 1B
6 1 Cole, Gerrit P
7 1 deGrom, Jacob P
8 1 Bregman, Alex 3B
9 1 Lindor, Francisco SS
10 1 Arenado, Nolan 3B
11 1 Story, Trevor SS
12 1 Soto, Juan OF
13 1 Verlander, Justin P
14 1 Turner, Trea SS
15 1 Scherzer, Max P

Round 2:
16 2 Freeman, Freddie 1B
17 2 Buehler, Walker P
18 2 Clevinger, Mike P
19 2 Judge, Aaron OF
20 2 Tatis Jr., Fernando MI
21 2 Bieber, Shane P
22 2 Ramirez, Jose 3B
23 2 Flaherty, Jack P
24 2 Devers, Rafael 3B
25 2 Strasburg, Stephen P
26 2 Alonso, Pete CI
27 2 Torres, Gleyber 2B
28 2 Harper, Bryce OF
29 2 Villar, Jonathan SS
30 2 Altuve, Jose 2B

Round 3:
31 3 Rendon, Anthony 3B
32 3 Martinez, J.D. OF
33 3 Mondesi, Adalberto SS
34 3 Baez, Javier SS
35 3 Bogaerts, Xander SS
36 3 Marte, Ketel 2B
37 3 Meadows, Austin OF
38 3 Marte, Starling OF
39 3 Snell, Blake P
40 3 Albies, Ozzie 2B
41 3 Springer, George OF
42 3 Morton, Charlie P
43 3 Alvarez, Yordan UT
44 3 Blackmon, Charlie OF
45 3 Sale, Chris P

Round 4:
46 4 Stanton, Giancarlo OF
47 4 Kershaw, Clayton P
48 4 Merrifield, Whit 2B
49 4 Corbin, Patrick P
50 4 Bryant, Kris 3B
51 4 Paddack, Chris P
52 4 Greinke, Zack P
53 4 Glasnow, Tyler P
54 4 Hiura, Keston 2B
55 4 Semien, Marcus SS
56 4 Castillo, Luis P
57 4 Nola, Aaron P
58 4 Giolito, Lucas P
59 4 Syndergaard, Noah P
60 4 Correa, Carlos SS

Round 5:
61 5 Paxton, James P
62 5 Muncy, Max 2B
63 5 Severino, Luis P
64 5 Machado, Manny 3B
65 5 Realmuto, J.T. C
66 5 Jimenez, Eloy OF
67 5 Soler, Jorge OF
68 5 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 3B
69 5 Ohtani, Shohei UT
70 5 Robles, Victor OF
71 5 Suarez, Eugenio 3B
72 5 Gallo, Joey OF
73 5 Pham, Tommy OF
74 5 Darvish, Yu P
75 5 Bichette, Bo SS

Round 6:
76 6 Rizzo, Anthony CI
77 6 Olson, Matt 1B
78 6 Moncada, Yoan 3B
79 6 Hader, Josh P
80 6 Woodruff, Brandon P
81 6 Yates, Kirby P
82 6 Goldschmidt, Paul 1B
83 6 Rosario, Eddie OF
84 6 Gray, Sonny P
85 6 Montas, Frankie P
86 6 Soroka, Mike P
87 6 Abreu, Jose 1B
88 6 Bauer, Trevor P
89 6 Osuna, Roberto P
90 6 Carrasco, Carlos P

 

 

Interesting to see Montas crack top 100. I like him for next year, but was unsure how he was valued by others.

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1 hour ago, papasmurf said:

 

Interesting to see Montas crack top 100. I like him for next year, but was unsure how he was valued by others.

 

I'm interested in him for next year too but 85 is a massive overpay in my opinion.

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On 11/12/2019 at 8:02 AM, MSkibisky said:

Anyone else a little surprised on how low Mondesi has been going in mocks? Before he got hurt he was red hot, and on pace for a boatload of steals. With speed so scare, I'm surprised he doesn't shoot up the boards a little more

 

The new manager might have something to say about it.  Yost was one of the most aggressive managers when it comes to SB's, Matheny not so much.  Id be worried about a change in philosophy there.  Mondesi will still steal bags of course, but not not get the green light as much under Matheny to get near 40.  Time will tell I guess

 

Edited by TheTruth024
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30 minutes ago, TheTruth024 said:

Matheny not so much.  Id be worried about a change in philosophy there

 

 

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Anyone remember that MysonX guy who used to post here a few years ago?  I remember he did some analysis on Kershaw vs Trout a few years ago when both were at their peak.  I remember him saying that Kershaw had much more value than Trout in those years.  And those were years where Trout dominated in AVG and had more SBs.

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Wong stole 20 in 2014 (Hitting 2nd)

Heyward stole 23 in 2015 (Middle of the order)

Pham stole 25 in 2017(Hitting 2nd).   Those are Heyward/Pham's career high and Wongs career high was 24 (last year)

 

I'm not worried about Mondesi SB production plummeting. He never had someone like him on the Cardinals.  Whit Merrifeld is the guy who's more in danger IMO. (If he doesn't get traded)

 

This is similar to being worried about Villar after he got traded to the Orioles due the old guard being anti SB. Some guys are just true burners and will steal in bunches no matter where they play.

Edited by Slatykamora

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I was looking closely as I was working some 1B rankings - when you look at the season Bellinger had - only 10 players in history have had that across board production of at least a .300 average 45HR 115 runs and rbis plus at least 15 steals. 

Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, Bonds, A Rod, Griffey jr, Walker, Pujols, Sosa and Canseco.  If I were in a yearly re-draft league, and landed the first pick, I would think Bellinger would at least be in my thoughts.  

 

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4 hours ago, parrothead said:

I was looking closely as I was working some 1B rankings - when you look at the season Bellinger had - only 10 players in history have had that across board production of at least a .300 average 45HR 115 runs and rbis plus at least 15 steals. 

Ruth, Gehrig, Mays, Bonds, A Rod, Griffey jr, Walker, Pujols, Sosa and Canseco.  If I were in a yearly re-draft league, and landed the first pick, I would think Bellinger would at least be in my thoughts.  

 

 

Lack of consistency and the fact his batting average took a nosedive in the 2nd half.

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NFBC $150 Draft Champions
Round 1:

1 1 Acuna Jr., Ronald OF
2 1 Yelich, Christian OF
3 1 Trout, Mike OF
4 1 Betts, Mookie OF
5 1 Cole, Gerrit P
6 1 Bellinger, Cody 1B
7 1 deGrom, Jacob P
8 1 Bregman, Alex 3B
9 1 Turner, Trea SS
10 1 Lindor, Francisco SS
11 1 Verlander, Justin P
12 1 Story, Trevor SS
13 1 Arenado, Nolan 3B
14 1 Soto, Juan OF
15 1 Buehler, Walker P

Round 2:
16 2 Rendon, Anthony 3B
17 2 Ramirez, Jose 3B
18 2 Tatis Jr., Fernando SS
19 2 Judge, Aaron OF
20 2 Martinez, J.D. OF
21 2 Scherzer, Max P
22 2 Freeman, Freddie 1B
23 2 Villar, Jonathan SS
24 2 Strasburg, Stephen P
25 2 Devers, Rafael 3B
26 2 Harper, Bryce OF
27 2 Clevinger, Mike P
28 2 Alonso, Pete 1B
29 2 Torres, Gleyber 2B
30 2 Alvarez, Yordan UT

Round 3:
31 3 Bieber, Shane P
32 3 Flaherty, Jack P
33 3 Bogaerts, Xander SS
34 3 Marte, Starling OF
35 3 Blackmon, Charlie OF
36 3 Springer, George OF
37 3 Mondesi, Adalberto SS
38 3 Snell, Blake P
39 3 Altuve, Jose 2B
40 3 Meadows, Austin OF
41 3 Albies, Ozzie 2B
42 3 Baez, Javier MI
43 3 Marte, Ketel 2B
44 3 Hiura, Keston 2B
45 3 Corbin, Patrick P

Round 4:
46 4 Suarez, Eugenio CI
47 4 Jimenez, Eloy OF
48 4 Stanton, Giancarlo OF
49 4 Sale, Chris P
50 4 Realmuto, J.T. C
51 4 Severino, Luis P
52 4 Castillo, Luis P
53 4 Kershaw, Clayton P
54 4 Merrifield, Whit 2B
55 4 Giolito, Lucas P
56 4 Pham, Tommy OF
57 4 Paddack, Chris P
58 4 Robles, Victor OF
59 4 Machado, Manny 3B
60 4 Nola, Aaron P

Round 5:
61 5 LeMahieu, DJ 1B
62 5 Morton, Charlie P
63 5 Guerrero Jr., Vladimir 3B
64 5 Muncy, Max 2B
65 5 Rizzo, Anthony 1B
66 5 Semien, Marcus SS
67 5 Bryant, Kris 3B
68 5 McNeil, Jeff OF
69 5 Gallo, Joey OF
70 5 Olson, Matt 1B
71 5 Moncada, Yoan 3B
72 5 Glasnow, Tyler P
73 5 Darvish, Yu P
74 5 Abreu, Jose 1B

Round 6:
75 5 Goldschmidt, Paul 1B
76 6 Bichette, Bo SS
77 6 Syndergaard, Noah P
78 6 Bell, Josh 1B
79 6 Chapman, Matt 3B
80 6 Greinke, Zack P
81 6 Sanchez, Gary C
82 6 Laureano, Ramon OF
83 6 Hader, Josh P
84 6 Ohtani, Shohei UT
85 6 Cruz, Nelson UT
86 6 Soroka, Mike P
87 6 Rosario, Eddie OF
88 6 Bauer, Trevor P
89 6 Donaldson, Josh CI
90 6 Correa, Carlos SS
81 6 LeMahieu, DJ CI
82 6 Gray, Sonny P
83 6 Pham, Tommy OF
84 6 Gurriel, Yuli 3B
85 6 Kluber, Corey P
86 6 Gallen, Zac P
87 6 Abreu, Jose CI
88 6 Chapman, Matt 3B
89 6 Soroka, Mike P
90 6 Woodruff, Brandon P

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Luzardo and Montas at 100 and 118 seem a little aggressive.  

C'mon spring already.  Bah humbug

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YeahI I said that Mookie Betts should be a top 3 player.  Now he's going top 5 at least, that's a start.  I guess if he got confirmed to be on the Red Sox, it would bump up to top 3. 

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11 hours ago, Moonshot said:

YeahI I said that Mookie Betts should be a top 3 player.  Now he's going top 5 at least, that's a start.  I guess if he got confirmed to be on the Red Sox, it would bump up to top 3. 

So that means you're taking him over either Trout, Yelich, or Acuna..?

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