Sign in to follow this  
Gohawks

Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Scoring is random which is why fantasy is a game of chance. I lost 1 h2h 203- 197  the 3rd best score that week was 148pts in a league where scoring 130pts  gives u a high probability to win your week. Neither one of us crossed 165pts after that week.  However it is not luck or randomness that we bid in auction the players we did who have the ability to produce those points.  Targeting players like Amari cooper and lamar jackson was not a random occurrence. 

That’s a tough loss. That could also feed into playoff seeding criteria. Or who makes the playoffs and who doesn’t. 

Maybe a system where all of H2H, all play, and points scored are weighed. Maybe it’s a 33% across the board or a 50-25-25 split. 

In points scored I rank 10th

In all-play I rank 8th

In H2H I’m 6th

Composite ranking: 8th

 

The other guy

Ranks 1st in points scored

Ranks 1st in all-play

Ranks 7th in H2H. 

Composite ranking: 3.33

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Luck, variables whatever you wanna call it exists in all fantasy sports. One thing though remains the same, you still have to manage your own squad. Start/Sit debates, add/drop, managing injuries. All this goes into putting the best squad forward.

 

You can't predict injuries mid game, but you also can't predict your player will have two TDs negated. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

95% luck. Been saying it for years.

 

I'm in a league where I have Chubb, Kamara, Davante Adams and George Kittle and I'm in last place. 

 

FF doesn't make sense. Noobs get rewarded. We all suck. 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It isn’t all luck, as I’m in 4 leagues (2 auction and 2 snake) and I’m in 1st place in all 4 at the moment. That cannot be complete coincidence. 

  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
46 minutes ago, jwilsonxo said:

95% luck. Been saying it for years.

 

I'm in a league where I have Chubb, Kamara, Davante Adams and George Kittle and I'm in last place. 

 

FF doesn't make sense. Noobs get rewarded. We all suck. 

So this is what doesn’t make sense. Your saying fantasy football is 95% luck because you listed a bunch of pretty names and you don’t know why your losing. What people fail to understand is fantasy football changes like the stock market. You have to jump on the new players off waivers like chark and hit on players in the middle/later part of the draft like Godwin. If your original draft didn’t pay off you have to make moves by trading, playing the waiver wire etc. Even those players you mentioned I mean you got Kamara first Adams second Chubb third Kittle 4th if I am  guessing right and then what happened? A good fantasy football season depends on way more than just 4 draft picks.

Edited by StevenSC400
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I won last week by half a point because my opponent lost Damien Williams in the first quarter. I also won week 9 on the last play of the game when the Dallas defense stripped scored on the Giants. It's all stupid luck, all you can do is try to minimize that luck and risk as much as possible. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, TennisDude said:

It isn’t all luck, as I’m in 4 leagues (2 auction and 2 snake) and I’m in 1st place in all 4 at the moment. That cannot be complete coincidence. 

Course it can.

It probably isn't but it definitely could be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, TennisDude said:

It isn’t all luck, as I’m in 4 leagues (2 auction and 2 snake) and I’m in 1st place in all 4 at the moment. That cannot be complete coincidence. 

I won 3 straight championships in my 12 team league. I thought that couldn’t be a coincidence. A 6-7 record last year and a 2-9 record this year has straightened me out. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

So this is what doesn’t make sense. Your saying fantasy football is 95% luck because you listed a bunch of pretty names and you don’t know why your losing. What people fail to understand is fantasy football changes like the stock market. You have to jump on the new players off waivers like chark and hit on players in the middle/later part of the draft like Godwin. If your original draft didn’t pay off you have to make moves by trading, playing the waiver wire etc. Even those players you mentioned I mean you got Kamara first Adams second Chubb third Kittle 4th if I am  guessing right and then what happened? A good fantasy football season depends on way more than just 4 draft picks.


This.  Your skills as a talent evaluator, roster manager, and day trader matter almost as much as a good draft.   Anyone can have a bad season or two...but better owners will have better records over the course of 5-10 years.    See it time and again in long-standing fantasy leagues.

 

That said...if all you play is PPR redraft...good luck finding enough advantage to win consistently.   Our hobby is mainstream and even casual players can perform well just following any of the mountains of advice available now.     Branch out to dynasty formats.

Edited by Impreza178
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Allow me to present another potential wrinkle in the luck v skill debate...waivers that clear on Wednesday morning.

It would appear to me that leagues that observe this practice (of which I am a part of) veer more towards the "luck" department.

After all, you're basically throwing darts about things like respective availability of players, their teammates and their individual opponents with no practice reports to make determinations on their availability. 

Daily waivers based on FAAB are probably better for this.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, TennisDude said:

It isn’t all luck, as I’m in 4 leagues (2 auction and 2 snake) and I’m in 1st place in all 4 at the moment. That cannot be complete coincidence. 

When you lose to a 6-7 team in the playoffs you’ll mention how it’s complete coincidence. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

When you lose to a 6-7 team in the playoffs you’ll mention how it’s complete coincidence. 

I’m 11-0 and fully expect to lose in the first round. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People that aren't good at fantasy football are always the ones talking about how it is all luck in my experience. 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

People that aren't good at fantasy football are always the ones talking about how it is all luck in my experience. 

 

Lol, OK.  I have the most points scored in one of my 3 leagues and I’m 4-7.  And the last 3 weeks I’ve faced the team that scored the highest points for the week.  Soooo, what’s that called?  Because I obviously drafted good players and made the right waiver moves to have the most points, right?

Edited by DemOrioles

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I haven't read through all ten pages but my biggest gripe is that there's a few studs at every position, and then every else is basically the same. 

Looking at Fantasypros rankings, ARob is the consensus WR15 this week. What's the actual gap in confidence you have between starting him and starting any random scrap heap WR4. It's negligible, at best. 

 

RB15 is Jaylen Samuels. Literally any pass catching RB is going to give you the same level of confidence. 

Step one: Hope your 2 or 3 studs stay healthy. 

Step two: Get lucky with everyone else you start. 

Edited by ajs723

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All I know is that when I'm winning it's skill.

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When my team is winning it's the wabbit's foot on my keychain and the fuzzy dice hanging from my rear view mirror. It's all luck both good and bad. Just my 2 cents. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been playing fantasy football for eight years now, and although I've won a few championships, I'm a firm believer that it mostly involves luck.

I try to put as much skill, effort, time and strategy as possible into my teams every single year, but sometimes it just doesn't matter.

I've seen people who know nothing about football, who draft poorly, who are inactive on the waiver wire, who don't put in the same time or work that I do, and who simply don't have the same level of passion for it as I do win championships.

You can have the worst possible roster and be in first place, and you can have the best possible roster and be in last place. That's just the way fantasy works. 

It can be a total coin flip.

Edited by The Frayed Ends of Fantasy
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd wager a large amount of leagues have some bias in terms of where teams finish each year (i.e. skill). There's usually a few players always in the playoffs and a few who have trouble making the playoffs year by year.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, LongBalls said:

I'd wager a large amount of leagues have some bias in terms of where teams finish each year (i.e. skill). There's usually a few players always in the playoffs and a few who have trouble making the playoffs year by year.

This is mostly true, although our league taco who always drafts a kicker in the fifth round won the championship two years ago (and took Gostkowski in the 5th that year.) 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, ponchsox said:

This is mostly true, although our league taco who always drafts a kicker in the fifth round won the championship two years ago (and took Gostkowski in the 5th that year.) 

 

I think it's pretty safe to classify those outcomes as possible, but unlikely. For example, if you ran the league 100 times how many do you think Taco would win? My assumption is he doesn't win much. 

The one truly luck-based element is the fantasy schedule, and it can make a massive difference in outcome. 

Edited by LongBalls

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a 10 team league you would have a 10% chance to win a luck based drawing.

 

There have been studies that were used as evidence in state and federal proceedings around fantasy football/gambling/legality questions. Those studies aren’t perfect, but they concluded that fantasy is roughly 60% skill and 40% luck in paid leagues, the exact same ratio the literal same attorneys had argued for poker a few decades earlier when trying to keep online poker legal in the US. 
 

what that basically meant was that the spread of likelihood of winning could be changed by as much as roughly 5+-% for any one player. So what they observed over tens of thousands of leagues of data was that in a 10 team league, the spread of likelihood of winning based on skill ranges from basically 5-15%. So if you were really good, like the best at fantasy “skill wise,” you could win at a rate of 15%. If you were really bad, 5%. 
 

I think that perfectly jives with most of our experiences playing in competitive leagues. You can be literally 3x as good as several other players in your league, 2x as good as several more, and roughly equal to or even still slightly better than the remaining owners in your league, and still you’d win an average of 1.5 times every 10 years. People that win 2x in a row or more think that they are some extreme outlier in brilliance and ability but they are just delusional and narcissistic and lack awareness and basic perspective.

Edited by LostAtSea
  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, LostAtSea said:

In a 10 team league you would have a 10% chance to win a luck based drawing.

 

There have been studies that were used as evidence in state and federal proceedings around fantasy football/gambling/legality questions. Those studies aren’t perfect, but they concluded that fantasy is roughly 60% skill and 40% luck in paid leagues, the exact same ratio the literal same attorneys had argued for poker a few decades earlier when trying to keep online poker legal in the US. 
 

what that basically meant was that the spread of likelihood of winning could be changed by as much as roughly 5+-% for any one player. So what they observed over tens of thousands of leagues of data was that in a 10 team league, the spread of likelihood of winning based on skill ranges from basically 5-15%. So if you were really good, like the best at fantasy “skill wise,” you could win at a rate of 15%. If you were really bad, 5%. 
 

I think that perfectly jives with most of our experiences playing in competitive leagues. You can be literally 3x as good as several other players in your league, 2x as good as several more, and roughly equal to or even still slightly better than the remaining owners in your league, and still you’d win an average of 1.5 times every 10 years. People that win 2x in a row or more think that they are some extreme outlier in brilliance and ability but they are just delusional and narcissistic and lack awareness and basic perspective.

I’ve won 15 out of 37 leagues on yahoo. Mostly 12 team money leagues. Guess I’m just really lucky. Lol.

 

this thread gets made every year by the same bitter folks. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.