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Gohawks

Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

You literally name two guys that have missed a large chunk of the season to injury and another that’s sucked for a huge chunk. Then you say “everyone knew” Zeke was getting a deal just like everyone knew Bell was getting one?

Ok buddy...

Large chunk? Kamara missed 2 games, and Saquon missed 3. Those small absences can be overcome with smart managing.

And Jerry pays his guys. He has a history of loyalty. You can dig up my post history where I was telling people they were dumb for wasting mid-round picks on Pollard before the season started.

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37 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

Large chunk? Kamara missed 2 games, and Saquon missed 3. Those small absences can be overcome with smart managing.

And Jerry pays his guys. He has a history of loyalty. You can dig up my post history where I was telling people they were dumb for wasting mid-round picks on Pollard before the season started.

Both guys came back rusty from injury. Add to that. 

Smart managing huh? Explain how to replace a top 3 pick. I’m all ears. Are all Kamara owners supposed to waste a 8th round pick on a RB to handcuff a guy that’s never been hurt? Barkley doesn’t have a legit handcuff. Also never been hurt. 

Give me a smart strategy for both without hindsight bias in it. Genuinely curious. 

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15 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Both guys came back rusty from injury. Add to that. 

Smart managing huh? Explain how to replace a top 3 pick. I’m all ears. Are all Kamara owners supposed to waste a 8th round pick on a RB to handcuff a guy that’s never been hurt? Barkley doesn’t have a legit handcuff. Also never been hurt. 

Give me a smart strategy for both without hindsight bias in it. Genuinely curious. 

I can't necessarily give you a strategy but everyone fails to realize that its risk versus reward. Other people will argue that having a top 3 pick, or having a bell cow RB gives an unfair advantage versus late round picks and that's true to an extent. However the offset of that is that if that pick busts or gets hurt, than you fall well behind the curve. If you're adverse to that risk, simply trade your pick for a later pick. 

And yes you can argue its luck but at least 1 top 3 rb from the draft "busts" every year relative to their ADP. And that luck is no different than a real NFL team losing their QB for a season. Its what makes this game great IMO.

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27 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Both guys came back rusty from injury. Add to that. 

Smart managing huh? Explain how to replace a top 3 pick. I’m all ears. Are all Kamara owners supposed to waste a 8th round pick on a RB to handcuff a guy that’s never been hurt? Barkley doesn’t have a legit handcuff. Also never been hurt. 

Give me a smart strategy for both without hindsight bias in it. Genuinely curious. 

A smart strategy that doesn't involve stashing handcuffs?

How about having a third startable RB? 

Nothing groundbreaking about that.

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1 hour ago, GriffeySwag said:

A smart strategy that doesn't involve stashing handcuffs?

How about having a third startable RB? 

Nothing groundbreaking about that.

A third starting RB does not replace a top 3 pick. A 3rd starting RB may be your flex now your team is even weaker. You make it seem like it’s a given. 

You take Barkley first pick then you may go something like Evans and Allen because you have your stud RB. Great and completely reasonable picks. You pick again around the 50 range. In your scenario, you’d have to hit on two RBs there. Losing a first overall pick is a massive blow to a lot of teams. 

FTR I lost Barkley and ran Carson and Mack so it wasn’t a unrecoverable blow. I managed fine. However, people in here acting like they can see the future is annoying. Some people go more WR heavy because they already got there bellcow RB. These people suck because they don’t have a crystal ball that can predict injuries.

Edited by Gohawks

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36 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

A third starting RB does not replace a top 3 pick. A 3rd starting RB may be your flex now your team is even weaker. You make it seem like it’s a given. 

You take Barkley first pick then you may go something like Evans and Allen because you have your stud RB. Great and completely reasonable picks. You pick again around the 50 range. In your scenario, you’d have to hit on two RBs there. Losing a first overall pick is a massive blow to a lot of teams. 

FTR I lost Barkley and ran Carson and Mack so it wasn’t a unrecoverable blow. I managed fine. However, people in here acting like they can see the future is annoying. Some people go more WR heavy because they already got there bellcow RB. These people suck because they don’t have a crystal ball that can predict injuries.

You're assuming that you have to use a mid-round pick to get your 3rd RB.

Tevin Coleman was dropped in half of my leagues when he got hurt week 1, and I scooped him up everywhere. Jordan Howard is another guy who was dropped in a few leagues early on who I was able to scoop up. And I drafted Carlos Hyde in the 12th+ in a few leagues. 

Zero draft capital spent to get some guys who could start for you in a pinch. 

Obviously guys like Coleman, Howard, and Hyde won't be able to replace a top 3 pick's production for the entire year, but they'd do just fine if it was only a 2 week or 3 week absence like in Kamara and Barkley's case.

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1 hour ago, GriffeySwag said:

You're assuming that you have to use a mid-round pick to get your 3rd RB.

Tevin Coleman was dropped in half of my leagues when he got hurt week 1, and I scooped him up everywhere. Jordan Howard is another guy who was dropped in a few leagues early on who I was able to scoop up. And I drafted Carlos Hyde in the 12th+ in a few leagues. 

Zero draft capital spent to get some guys who could start for you in a pinch. 

Obviously guys like Coleman, Howard, and Hyde won't be able to replace a top 3 pick's production for the entire year, but they'd do just fine if it was only a 2 week or 3 week absence like in Kamara and Barkley's case.

This speaks more to the quality of the league than anything else.

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6 hours ago, Gohawks said:

However, people in here acting like they can see the future is annoying

 

I'm waiting for the people who maximized their lineup this week by starting W. Fuller and Jonathon Williams to add to the conversation.

Certainly someone leading their league saw that coming and are off to another easy win.

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On 11/18/2019 at 4:10 PM, FitzMagic said:

You are correct, but that's likely just being luckier than others. This is by far the worst season I've ever had in any fantasy game. And I put the same amount of time into it because I'm very competitive. For example, I'm 4-6, going on 4-7, and have the 4th most points, while in 7th place. A team that is terrible and doesn't do much of anything is 3-7, second from last in standings, and dead last in points in a 10-teamer.

Yeah, there's definitely a lot of luck in fantasy football. If you think about it, it's 100% luck based just because I'm not controlling the players and their final stat lines. I'm essentially guessing which player will have. A bigger game/season. However, there is such a thing as an educated guess, and knowing the players leagues and matchups is more than just luck.    

 

I think of fantasy football as a form of video game with the genre being strategy and simulation. There's not a ton of skill used in those genres, just knowing how to manage. 

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11 hours ago, Gohawks said:

This speaks more to the quality of the league than anything else.

Tevin Coleman was being mass dropped after week 1, but sure let's take that angle. 

You can keep making excuses, I'll keep making the playoffs every year.

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1 minute ago, GriffeySwag said:

Tevin Coleman was being mass dropped after week 1, but sure let's take that angle. 

You can keep making excuses, I'll keep making the playoffs every year.

In leagues where things like this happen, you should be making th on playoffs every year. Unless you've got two bench spots in an 8 team league, dropping Coleman week 1 is completely JV. 

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1 minute ago, Mr Rourke said:

In leagues where things like this happen, you should be making th on playoffs every year. Unless you've got two bench spots in an 8 team league, dropping Coleman week 1 is completely JV. 

Since you guys want to try to re-write history, let me direct you to the Coleman thread where several people discussed dropping him after week 1:

 

 

And I play nothing but money leagues. So keep making excuses, I'll keep making the playoffs.

 

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1 minute ago, GriffeySwag said:

Since you guys want to try to re-write history, let me direct you to the Coleman thread where several people discussed dropping him after week 1:

 

 

And I play nothing but money leagues. So keep making excuses, I'll keep making the playoffs.

 

Lol way to get your point across by posted what I said before the season 

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Just now, urban2014 said:

Lol way to get your point across by posted what I said before the season 

Way to not even click the link which directs you the page 11, right after Coleman got hurt.

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I started the damn thread, all you was to copy my first post. Bravo 

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12 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

Tevin Coleman was being mass dropped after week 1, but sure let's take that angle. 

You can keep making excuses, I'll keep making the playoffs every year.

Mast dropped by who?

You're really going to sit here and argue that dropping a guy with an ADP in the 50s and someone who was expected to contend for the lead back on arguably the best running team in the NFL was a valid drop because of an ankle sprain? Surely you can't be serious.

I don't care if you play in a money league dropping Coleman was ridiculously bush league. Dropping Howard after a few weeks is also ridiculously bush league. If you are talking about a guy like Jalen Samuels you'd have a point but why pick him up when your leagues are dropping legitimate startable RBs left and right? 

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Just now, urban2014 said:

I started the damn thread, all you was to copy my first post. Bravo 

That's the thumbnail that appeared after I copied and pasted the link. Did you even bother clicking it? It takes you to page 11. 

No one cares about what you wrote in February, that's not even relevant to the discussion. Be gone now.

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Luck is much more of a factor in Fantasy football than in baseball.  There’s not many things where you can be the best at something (most points) and completely fail due to outside factors beyond your control.  It’s still a skill game with luck involved.  My frustration with football is redraft has basically become a draft and hold.  Trading is rare.  There’s less fun in it.  

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11 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

Since you guys want to try to re-write history, let me direct you to the Coleman thread where several people discussed dropping him after week 1:

 

 

And I play nothing but money leagues. So keep making excuses, I'll keep making the playoffs.

 

Ok two things.

1) People on here thought Damian Williams was a legit second round pick. Just because you are on a fantasy forum does not make you qualified.

2) That thread does not back you up AT ALL. Like 2 people thought he is a drop. Everyone else was saying hold along with scoop him up anywhere you can.

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I don't need to go to page 11 to see that you basically wrote down what I said in February 1

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1 minute ago, Gohawks said:

Ok two things.

1) People on here thought Damian Williams was a legit second round pick. Just because you are on a fantasy forum does not make you qualified.

2) That thread does not back you up AT ALL. Like 2 people thought he is a drop. Everyone else was saying hold along with scoop him up anywhere you can.

2? I don't care enough to paste every comment from in there, but let's not make up blatant lies now.

And I don't know that there's a way to look up week by week ownership levels on Yahoo, but Coleman was below 70% on Yahoo after the first few weeks. You continue to try and discredit the level of competition in my leagues if that'll help you feel better about being mediocre, but the reality is Coleman WAS being mass dropped. 

 

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Tevin Coleman hasnt been very good I feel like I'm in bizarro world.

 

 

Either way

Fantasy has always been luck based, whether its matchup luck, injury luck, or lucky enough to have friends that are bad at fantasy.  Its luck, with about 10% knowing what you're doing.

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1 minute ago, daguyondacouch8 said:

Tevin Coleman hasnt been very good I feel like I'm in bizarro world.

 

 

Either way

Fantasy has always been luck based, whether its matchup luck, injury luck, or lucky enough to have friends that are bad at fantasy.  Its luck, with about 10% knowing what you're doing.

@Gohawks has been attempting to move the goal posts from "if you don't have a bellcow rb you're screwed" to "if you drafted saquon or kamara you're screwed" to "you have to use a 5th/6th rounder to get your RB2 and RB3" to "Tevin Coleman doesn't get dropped in competitive leagues"

...all to justify the fact that he's not very good at building fake football teams.

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40 minutes ago, GriffeySwag said:

@Gohawks has been attempting to move the goal posts from "if you don't have a bellcow rb you're screwed" to "if you drafted saquon or kamara you're screwed" to "you have to use a 5th/6th rounder to get your RB2 and RB3" to "Tevin Coleman doesn't get dropped in competitive leagues"

...all to justify the fact that he's not very good at building fake football teams.

First of all, I’m in two leagues and make the playoffs pretty much every time in both. So thank you very much for your ad hominem.  The threads goal was nothing to do with “is fantasy football all luck” despite that’s what it’s turned into. 

I have not moved the goal posts once nor have I said you’re screwed. I’ve stated a bellcow puts you at an extreme advantage and losing a bellcow does the opposite. I’ve also stated when your RB2 is picked around the 50 range which may be the case when you pick top 3 replacing a bellcow proves to be difficult. 

Coleman is completely unrelated to anything above. My point is no wonder you don’t think luck is involved when you can just go and pickup a viable starting RB off the waiver. In both of my leagues if you needed a replacement you were staring at someone like Dion Lewis. 

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