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Gohawks

Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

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1 hour ago, kidtwentytwo said:

Luck is much more of a factor in Fantasy football than in baseball.  There’s not many things where you can be the best at something (most points) and completely fail due to outside factors beyond your control.  It’s still a skill game with luck involved.  My frustration with football is redraft has basically become a draft and hold.  Trading is rare.  There’s less fun in it.  

Absolutely, it's just the nature of the game.  Each play only lasts a matter of seconds.  There are way more players on the playing surface than the other 3 major NA sports, which adds many variables.  Also, injuries are more common in football that any other sport.  I could keep going on but you get the idea.  It's much easier to predict outcomes of baseball and even hockey which are my two other favorite fantasy sports.  I win very consistently in fantasy baseball and hockey, not football.

Edited by Slimzy17

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5 hours ago, FlaccoMcOrangy said:

Yeah, there's definitely a lot of luck in fantasy football. If you think about it, it's 100% luck based just because I'm not controlling the players and their final stat lines. I'm essentially guessing which player will have. A bigger game/season. However, there is such a thing as an educated guess, and knowing the players leagues and matchups is more than just luck.    

 

I think of fantasy football as a form of video game with the genre being strategy and simulation. There's not a ton of skill used in those genres, just knowing how to manage. 

One could make the argument that this is more relevant in DFS than in season-long fantasy.

In DFS, you're analyzing each matchup and trying to maximize return on investment based on single-week matchups.

In season-long, you draft who you draft and you have to make it work. Usually your WR2 is better than your WR5 regardless of matchup, so it'd be VERY rare to not start the WR2 just because his matchup isn't choice. 

Now, fantasy is making pre-draft educated guesses about player value and who might have more/less upside than others. So it still exists. But week-to-week lineup variation is hard to be as matchup-dependent as you'd like because your studs are your studs regardless of matchup.

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1 hour ago, daguyondacouch8 said:

 

Fantasy has always been luck based, whether its matchup luck, injury luck, or lucky enough to have friends that are bad at fantasy.  Its luck, with about 10% knowing what you're doing.

 

I disagree. Anybody who has played for years can tell you that the NFL has changed significantly. And the changes in technology/offensive creativity/rules/players has had a impact on the amount of luck involved.  

Larger rosters, more skilled players on the field over the course of a game, and more imaginative offenses have all increased the pool of players who can have a big week.

Who is on the field when given the opportunity to make a big play is totally different than it used to be. The odds that you have this player on your roster and you have them active is another issue. Did you know who Bo Scarbrough was before last week?

I did a quick look at stats on NFL.com If their stats are right, around 360-375 players scored fantasy points in 2016. That went up to over 400 in 2017. It looks like it was closer to 500 in 2018. There is only one football in the game and more people are getting opportunities to do something with it.

 

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100% there is a decent chunk of luck involved with injury situations and late round gems.... having said that a great manager can get himself out of trouble with smart trades and being active on the waiver wire.

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3 hours ago, bwarbiany said:

One could make the argument that this is more relevant in DFS than in season-long fantasy.

In DFS, you're analyzing each matchup and trying to maximize return on investment based on single-week matchups.

In season-long, you draft who you draft and you have to make it work. Usually your WR2 is better than your WR5 regardless of matchup, so it'd be VERY rare to not start the WR2 just because his matchup isn't choice. 

Now, fantasy is making pre-draft educated guesses about player value and who might have more/less upside than others. So it still exists. But week-to-week lineup variation is hard to be as matchup-dependent as you'd like because your studs are your studs regardless of matchup.

That's all fine and dandy for the studs you have, but rarely teams will have all studs. Yeah, Michael Thomas will stay there and never move, but Tevin Coleman and Cortland Sutton have a tough matchup. You also have two stars on Bye, so you look to stream and your QB is hurt. Oh, and DJ Chark was a waiver wire add you guessed right on.     

There is definitely strength in evaluating, working the waiver wire, and watching matchups. Yeah, there's luck. Any player will admit that, but lucking into championships are not as common as some would lead you to believe. 

Edited by FlaccoMcOrangy

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2 hours ago, CountReeves said:

having said that a great manager can get himself out of trouble with smart trades and being active on the waiver wire.

While I don't disagree, the ability to do this successfully is heavily predicated on how competitive your league is. Just reference the TOP WAIVER ADDS, ASSISTANT COACH or DYNASTY TRADES threads; they are filled with people scratching their heads over the disparity in player valuations. 

If Michael Thomas goes on IR tomorrow, all of his owners are equally hurt by the bad luck, but the guy who plays in a league where Devante Parker is sitting on the WW is far more likely to "get himself out of trouble" than someone in a highly competitive league with multiple flexes and deep benches. Same with trading, obviously. 

I think the more competitive the league is, luck becomes  more difficult to overcome.  Benches are deeper, starting rosters are bigger and the owners are generally more shrewd. Just my experience. 

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I would also add that the overwhelming amount of fantasy experts and NFL analysis available on the web somewhat eliminates those more skilled at identifying breakout performances, rookies, sleepers etc. because they can be found with the click of a mouse by any geek off the street. Chris Godwin comes to mind this year as someone who in the past would have been identified by those skilled in player evaluation but was being pumped up on every single fantasy outlet before the season started.

Edited by paulwall29

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On 11/18/2019 at 2:12 PM, Gohawks said:

So right off the bat, I am formulating this as a question because while I suspect it is, I don't have 100% proof of this. While I have a strong hypotenus that it is, imput from others would be very much so welcome. Anyways, I have a few theories.

1) Injuries.

Now, this one is fact based. Football outsiders already did their research and injuries have gone up drastically. Now, the main issue isn't that players are really getting hurt more but rather identification and awareness is much better. The amount of games missed due to head injuries is nearly doubled and time missed has rose across the board. Again, this is likely due to the identification process of injuries and teams being more cautious with their players. Players also see the consequences and thus are more likely to sit out. Regardeless, when players are dropping like flies the last one standing may just be the one with the least injuries

2) Lack of bellcow backs

There are a lot less bellcow backs than there was. If you land one you have a massive advantage over other people automatically. It's that simple. It's like getting a 10% headstart in a race. The people behind may very well be better but because of this you win. Now, obviously there were guys like LT far ahead of other guys but there's just far less to pick from

3) Overall offenses spreading the ball around more

Now, this one is one that I really cannot prove. However, I do suspect that it seems like the inconsistency is higher than ever despite offenses producing better than ever. When you are playing a game that is based on one week and the deviation from standard can be damn near 300%-500% in either direction that's a massive difference. 

To me, it just seems like the direction the game is moving in it's becoming more and more erratic week to week and year to year.


 

Fully agree with all of this.

its always been luck based to a degree but it’s a lot more luck based now than it was 10 years ago.

remember when the first two rounds were almost entirely RBs? I feel like I’m lucky if I can find a consistent RB2 these days. 
 

Really frustrating. 

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