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Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

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1 minute ago, SmileyFace8 said:

I suppose you can call it skill, but for myself I don't see anything I do by googling something about a player and then taking a chance on a player because he performed well the week before skill. As for picking up those players that is pure luck in where your waiver pick stands. I do have to agree that there is some skill when it comes to drafting or draft strategy, although there has been just as many busts as many sleeper picks making it. Just look at David Johnson this season. How many people do you think picked him in the 1st round? Is that bad skill or bad luck? Then look at all the undrafted WW players that get snagged up in Week 2 like Terry McLaurin. Where was the skill in finding him? It is pure luck for the person who has the #1 WW  in week 2 to get him for the rest of the season. So maybe we are both correct, it isn't completely luck but it sure is a whole lot of it.

 

Or you have Desean Jackson who has a blow up Week 1 and you think you are sitting on a goldmine that you drafted in the 12th round so you bypass the McLaurin waiver wire pick up.  Desean gets an ab injury and is done for the year while McLaurin actually plays and does pretty decent.  Sometimes the timing of injuries and your needs just add up to great luck.  

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19 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Didn't know others were as salty as me over Kamara getting concussed in the fantasy playoffs in '17.  Screwed me out of a championship 

 

Yeah it was crushing. I started 1-4 and finished 8-5, gave me false hope I might make it through the playoffs. 

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The issue is the rule changes which have favored offenses, especially for more wide-open schemes. It was bad enough that RBBC came along, but now WR groups go 4 deep & TE’s have always been dicey. We’re all going to have to dig deeper & study harder than we did years ago

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5 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

 

Or you have Desean Jackson who has a blow up Week 1 and you think you are sitting on a goldmine that you drafted in the 12th round so you bypass the McLaurin waiver wire pick up.  Desean gets an ab injury and is done for the year while McLaurin actually plays and does pretty decent.  Sometimes the timing of injuries and your needs just add up to great luck.  

The luck of FFB is what makes it so much fun to play. That is why I was extremely sad when he retired right before the season started this year. 😁

Edited by SmileyFace8
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31 minutes ago, dashoe said:

it just sounds like many are not as good as they thought they were playing fantasy football or not acknowledging that others are better than them. 😂

 

There is no such thing as being "better" in fantasy football.

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4 minutes ago, SmileyFace8 said:

I suppose you can call it skill, but for myself I don't see anything I do by googling something about a player and then taking a chance on a player because he performed well the week before skill. As for picking up those players that is pure luck in where your waiver pick stands. I do have to agree that there is some skill when it comes to drafting or draft strategy, although there has been just as many busts as many sleeper picks making it. Just look at David Johnson this season. How many people do you think picked him in the 1st round? Is that bad skill or bad luck? Then look at all the undrafted WW players that get snagged up in Week 2 like Terry McLaurin. Where was the skill in finding him? It is pure luck for the person who has the #1 WW  in week 2 to get him for the rest of the season. So maybe we are both correct, it isn't completely luck but it sure is a whole lot of it.

 

I don't like the term "skill" to be honest.  I disagree with you regarding waiver wire pickups, depending on your league settings there may not be a chance for you to get McLaurin but that would also mean that your team either won or scored more than the team that picked him up did.  So that waiver system is set up to provide some sort of balance to even out the competition level. If you're playing in a move to last there is "skill" associated with waivers, even more in FAB leagues. 

I would say most leagues DJ went in the first round and him getting injured is "unlucky" but its not his first injury so some "skilled" managers might have decided to not use their 1st round pick on a back with injury history.  I took Hopkins in one league where DJ was still there, more because I thought Kyler would take away rushing TD's kind of like Watson has done to HOU backs but still you have to evaluate the risk with each pick, especially rounds 1-3. 

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I think it’s the death of the 30 touch RB and cuteness of offensive coordinators trying to be the most clever guy in the stadium.
My league started in 1998 and if you had Faulk, Holmes, Alexander yeah you had an advantage because those guys averaged 30 points a game. But you were also getting 20 from average guys because volume.
These days you get 40 from Aaron Jones one week then 7 the next. LT didn’t have Jamaal Williams and a clever coordinator. 

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Just now, Evincar said:

 

There is no such thing as being "better" in fantasy football.

I like to follow the accuracy of the experts on FantasyPros - particularly earlier on when you can compare them year over year.

It does not appear to me there is a whole lot of consistency.  Probably something to that.

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14 minutes ago, SmileyFace8 said:

I suppose you can call it skill, but for myself I don't see anything I do by googling something about a player and then taking a chance on a player because he performed well the week before skill. As for picking up those players that is pure luck in where your waiver pick stands. I do have to agree that there is some skill when it comes to drafting or draft strategy, although there has been just as many busts as many sleeper picks making it. Just look at David Johnson this season. How many people do you think picked him in the 1st round? Is that bad skill or bad luck? Then look at all the undrafted WW players that get snagged up in Week 2 like Terry McLaurin. Where was the skill in finding him? It is pure luck for the person who has the #1 WW  in week 2 to get him for the rest of the season. So maybe we are both correct, it isn't completely luck but it sure is a whole lot of it.

You are 100% correct. Even with FAAB, it is all luck. It's not skill to outbid someone else. With "transaction trends" everyone is targeting the same waiver adds of the week. There is strategy to trying to jump on a player before his stock rises. Other than that I don't see it not being purely luck. There are no secrets and everyone is getting fed the same information. Smartphone updates, fantasy experts, etc. There was skill involved when I started playing back in 2001. I can't say there is much, if any, now.

Edited by FitzMagic
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Throw in kickers and defenses with such wide variances and unpredictable performances.

Since many competitive leagues have virtually everyone has access to the same info.

Much more about random chance than it used to be.  At least it seems that way to me.

Although possibly I think this way because my teams have performed poorly this year.

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This thread TL;DR:

 

If you're doing well this year you think it's more skill based, I'd you're doing poorly you think it's more luck based.

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Just now, vercrazy said:

This thread TL;DR:

 

If you're doing well this year you think it's more skill based, I'd you're doing poorly you think it's more luck based.

I dunno what someone would be still doing here if they're not doing well, it's week 11.  🤣

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6 minutes ago, vercrazy said:

This thread TL;DR:

 

If you're doing well this year you think it's more skill based, I'd you're doing poorly you think it's more luck based.

I did well last year and was extremely lucky. The highest scoring team didn't even make the playoffs. I couldn't say I was a fantasy savant last year. I was lucky to be in the right spot to pull over to the side of the road and pick up Nick Chubb, after hearing Carlos Hyde was traded. I went to the championship. I was lucky. I was lucky I wasn't on the interstate. This year, my team is scoring points but I have a bad record and will likely miss the playoffs. I was unlucky to have DJ, DJax in Week 2, and Kupp throwing up zeros and eights.

Edited by FitzMagic

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The deeper your leagues the more skill based it is. Terry McLaurin wasn't on waivers week 2 in my league and someone held Chubb all season last year.

10 team leagues is basically roulette save from a couple awesome grabs IMO

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3 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

I did well last year and was extremely lucky. The highest scoring team didn't even make the playoffs. I couldn't say I was a fantasy savant last year. I was lucky to be in the right spot to pull over to the side of the road and pick up Nick Chubb, after hearing Carlos Hyde was traded. I went to the championship. I was lucky. I was lucky I wasn't on the interstate. This year, my team is scoring points but I have a bad record and will likely miss the playoffs.

 

How did you hear? 

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1 hour ago, fullonchubb said:

lol this gave me a great laugh, thank you.

I blame Key & Peele. Genuinely...

 

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Skill is important, and you can tell the "good owners" from the "bad owners" pretty easily.  But luck is a huge component of fantasy football - more so than any other fantasy sport - because of (1) the small sample (13 games in the regular season and that's it) and (2) the playoffs.  The best team in a 12-team league has no better than about a 40% chance of winning the title (assume s/he needs two playoff wins and is 65% to win each game - which is very high for any playoff matchup - that's 42% to win it all).  Drafts instead of auctions also add more "luck" to the game because you are literally drawing out of a hat for one of the most important things of the season: your draft position.

Much more skill is required to succeed in a 12-team NL-only or AL-only rotisserie baseball league, for instance.  In a league like that, you play say 14 position players, 9 pitchers, have 10+ man benches, etc.  There you need a massive amount of knowledge of players, teams' depth charts, minor league systems, platoon usage, etc.  Without head-to-head matchups or playoffs, you have much less variance.  That's probably 80% skill.

But, look at the bright side: The fact that fantasy football teams can win by "striking lucky" is the main reason fantasy football is so much more popular than the other fantasy sports.

 

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2 minutes ago, Flynfiesta6 said:

 

How did you hear? 

I was listening to sports talk radio on the way home and they mentioned it.

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Just now, FitzMagic said:

I was listening to sports talk radio on the way home and they mentioned it.

 

Making more of an effort to stay up on the news than your league-mates = skill! lol  

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It is mostly luck !   Last year i spent weeks getting ready for the draft... even took a sick day the day of my big money leagues draft.    I had everything broken down and a plan for the draft.   I made my first pick and suddenly bam.... internet froze.   I quick go to log on my iphone and the battery dies.   I am in a panic... plug my phone in and star at the black screen not loading.   I get back on in round 7.    I had drafted Barkley first.... then i honestly forget who else... but i know my 2nd and 3rd picks went out with injuries.   Yahoo autopicked me the vikings defense in round 5 and Greg the leg in round 6.    

 

The season was a complete sht show !!  Every week i was dealing with injuries and was behind the 8 ball because of the draft.  I started 0-4 and continued to kill the waiver wire making quick pickups to try and compensate.   Around week 12 I was running out of moves... I went all out and depleted all my waiver wire moves hoping to win the consolation bracket and get some money back.    Week 13 I end up playing our number 1 player and was up by about 20 or so points  with no players going.   He had Goff, Reynolds,  The Rams defense and Kamara on Monday night.   The rams complete imploded that week and Kamara did nothing.   I somehow won that match... and limped into the playoffs with no waiver moves and a bench depleted by injuries.    I somehow made it to the championship game and ended up getting crushed but walked away with 1000 dollars.     You can say skill allowed me to make the waiver moves to put me in the position and allowed luck to help me out... But that was mostly luck.   

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I named a team "70% Luck" about 10 years ago, and I'd probably adjust that to 80% luck at this point. A huge factor for me is Wednesday through Friday injury reports, which were once a huge factor in the waiver process, but now have become basically useless.

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1 example, a NEW GUY to fantasy football in may big money league, drafted CMC and Cook, reading it out of his FF book.  The rest of his team is bad, rolled with Burton at TE all year lol.  BUT barring injury to either of these players, he's the favorite to win.  PS he didn't pickup Mattison.

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The guys claiming it’s all luck are most likely just not that good at fantasy football sorry to say. I only play in two serious leagues every year and it’s usually the same 3-4 people that are either on top or in contention and at least make the playoffs every single year. Even if you start off with a bad draft there’s a lot of things you can do to make your team better as the year goes on. One year I remember I won a championship and on that championship team I only had one player that I originally drafted. It was that bad at the start but great at the finish. Of course luck has some play here but it’s not nearly 100%. Also follow the points. If a team has the most total points scored for the year and is on top over a 16-17 game season how can you claim it’s all luck? Clearly that player has been out scoring everyone else over the course of the season. So they obviously have the best team.

Edited by StevenSC400
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57 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Also the premise of MORE luck based vs the past doesnt make sense. Luck is an outcome of success or failure

What fundamental element of fantasy was changed that would affect the randomness of luck?

Fantasy is a numerical product  based off of  NFL production. 

So I don't understand the premise that luck has been changed in the NFL or fantasy,

it just sounds like many are not as good as they thought they were playing fantasy football or not acknowledging that others are better than them. 😂

This is outlined in my initial post. The reason we are witnessing more luck is because the variables we cannot control are more prominent than before. The question is how much does skill increase your chance in winning?

For instance, let's say you are measuring who can make the most three pointers out of 10. Now, the best shooter will not win each time but you can be pretty sure that they will win most of the time. Furthermore, a guy that plays basketball all the time and understands mechanics vs a random guy will produce the same result damn near every time.  Now let's say you take the score of threes made from 10 attempts and then you roll a 8 sided dice which you add to your score. Now we are introducing the element of luck. With enough luck, a guy that has never picked up a ball can beat Steph Curry. 

My argument is that the sides to this dice are increasing. With a 12 sided dice you can make 0 out of 10 and Curry can make 10 out of 10 and you still will win 

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3 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

The guys claiming it’s all luck are most likely just not that good at fantasy football sorry to say. I only play in two serious leagues every year and it’s usually the same 3-4 people that are either on top or in contention and at least make the playoffs every single year. Even if you start off with a bad draft there’s a lot of things you can do to make your team better as the year goes on. One year I remember I won a championship and on that championship team I only had one player that I originally drafted. It was that bad at the start but great at the finish. Of course luck has some play here but it’s not nearly 100%. Also follow the points. If a team has the most total points scored for the year and is on top over a 16-17 game season how can you claim it’s all luck? Clearly that player has been out scoring everyone else over the course of the season. So they obviously have the best team.

This thread is not intended to be "Is fantasy all luck". It's intended to be what the title says. It's two completely separate talking points. 

Anyways, funnily enough one of my leagues has been the complete opposite. 4/5 of the last years the winners have been absolutely clueless. During DJs breakout year the guy that took DJ he barely knew who he was. By far the worst player in our league and he won.. I'd say this league has 3 really bad guys at fantasy, 6 really good, and the rest in between. So the odds weren't even in their favor. Now, I am not using this to argue in the direction of luck rather that people tend to use anecdotal evidence based on a ridiculously small sample size when making claims especially reading through this thread. 

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