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Gohawks

Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

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Maybe somebody already suggested this, but what about a format where you score in the top half of the league to get a win every week.  This doesn't happen every year, but in two of my leagues I am amongst the top in points scored but also points against.  It is aggravating to lose with the the third highest score in a fourteen team league while the fourth lowest gets a win.  I'm losing with a second or third high score more than ever while seeing bottom three or four scores get a win.  It is asinine and cannot be logically justified because it's not like a real life low scoring game where the opposing team's stellar defense is the cause for your low offensive output.  Teams are playing like dog crap and getting wins because their opponent scored even worse.

I kind of like the idea of having no head to head opponent and getting credited for a win by scoring in the top half.  Still lets you reset weekly and not have to do roto while not having the luck factor of going against random scores weekly that you have no control over.

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It is mostly luck, but it always seems like the more serious owners in both of my leagues finish in the money more often than not.

The game of football makes fantasy much more unpredictable in general. In baseball, you can still have a player hit 40+ homers on a bad offense/bad team, but in football a bad offense will significantly downgrade a talented player. Touchdowns, unlike home runs/RBIs, are a lot less consistent to predict year to year and that is fantasy football’s bread and butter. 

Some good points about less bellcow backs and spreading the ball around more. I will also add that it seems like offensive line play has degraded across football the past few years and bad offensive line play is a recipe for disaster in certain games. 

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

So right off the bat, I am formulating this as a question because while I suspect it is, I don't have 100% proof of this. While I have a strong hypotenus that it is, imput from others would be very much so welcome. Anyways, I have a few theories.

1) Injuries.

Now, this one is fact based. Football outsiders already did their research and injuries have gone up drastically. Now, the main issue isn't that players are really getting hurt more but rather identification and awareness is much better. The amount of games missed due to head injuries is nearly doubled and time missed has rose across the board. Again, this is likely due to the identification process of injuries and teams being more cautious with their players. Players also see the consequences and thus are more likely to sit out. Regardeless, when players are dropping like flies the last one standing may just be the one with the least injuries

2) Lack of bellcow backs

There are a lot less bellcow backs than there was. If you land one you have a massive advantage over other people automatically. It's that simple. It's like getting a 10% headstart in a race. The people behind may very well be better but because of this you win. Now, obviously there were guys like LT far ahead of other guys but there's just far less to pick from

3) Overall offenses spreading the ball around more

Now, this one is one that I really cannot prove. However, I do suspect that it seems like the inconsistency is higher than ever despite offenses producing better than ever. When you are playing a game that is based on one week and the deviation from standard can be damn near 300%-500% in either direction that's a massive difference. 

To me, it just seems like the direction the game is moving in it's becoming more and more erratic week to week and year to year.

 

 

1) Injuries

 

I'd believe this. Mostly due to the concussion protocol.   If we're basing it on this season, I feel like we've had an abnormally low amount of season ending RB injuries among the top RBs with an abnormally high number of season ending QB injuries.  

 

2) Lack of Bellcow backs

 

When are we comparing this to?   The game changed in 2006-2007 with the passing rules changes...or the "more strict" emphasis on pass interference.

 

Since then we have less running backs getting an abnormal number of carries.  Also coaches realized it's silly to give a running back 400 carries...which should have been obvious but...

 

If we're saying there are less Bellcow backs now than some other time after 2007, I'd disagree.  We have 9 guys near a pace for 300 carries: Cook, Chubb, Carson, McCaffrey, Elliot, Mack, Jacobs, Henry and Fournette.

 

3) Overall offenses spreading the ball around more

 

I'm not sure that's true, we're getting about 8ish WRs a year with 150+ targets.  There are up years and down years.  The only thing that may have changed is more teams game planning around taking a WR away with their best cornerback.  IE:  This week  Amari Cooper vs Slay, Allen Robinson vs Ramsey or just planning to take away the other teams best option (ie Hopkins vs the Ravens this week).  

 

I think these things can be predicted through research, but doing anything but "start your studs" is more difficult in season long leagues where you might have players on bye weeks or injured.  Even in DFS, you have to predict the correct players that will get volume instead of the stud WR (ie, Gallup/Cobb did well, No bears WR did well, but Gabriel got 14 targets, etc).  In season long 10 team leagues, maybe you can drop someone for one of those players but that might mean giving up a longer term asset.  

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2 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This thread is not intended to be "Is fantasy all luck". It's intended to be what the title says. It's two completely separate talking points. 

Anyways, funnily enough one of my leagues has been the complete opposite. 4/5 of the last years the winners have been absolutely clueless. During DJs breakout year the guy that took DJ he barely knew who he was. By far the worst player in our league and he won.. I'd say this league has 3 really bad guys at fantasy, 6 really good, and the rest in between. So the odds weren't even in their favor. Now, I am not using this to argue in the direction of luck rather that people tend to use anecdotal evidence based on a ridiculously small sample size when making claims especially reading through this thread. 

My post was referring to anyone who said it’s mostly all luck. Not to anyone in general. And of course on occasion some weird things will happen. I’ve been playing in these two leagues for probably 12-13 years. We still have a guy that’s never won it and is in last place this year without a win. And he tries. Starts his players does his draft etc. Some people just aren’t that good.

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Play in an auction league and not snake and you minimize the 'Luck" factor. 

 

You own your pick based on how you value your pick, not the randomness of  a generic ADP where autipick can win the league.

Autopicks can't win auction leagues because smart players will send all the worst players to the  bot.

I agree that a lucky newbie can win a snake league but I have yet to see a lucky newbie win an auction league.

Sounds like the it's luck crowd plly in snake drafts 😂

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15 minutes ago, KennyWoo said:

But, look at the bright side: The fact that fantasy football teams can win by "striking lucky" is the main reason fantasy football is so much more popular than the other fantasy sports.

 

That's one and probably the only thing I disagree with your post on. Fantasy Football is more popular IMO because the format just makes much more sense than any other sport, and has the least amount of headache when it comes to running a team. It's a short and sweet season, every player plays (1) game a week. There's no subbing players in and out every day, or trying to figure out what teams play 4 times instead of 2 times in the week, ect. It's both the convenience and the raw popularity of the real sport that propel FF IMO.

 

And even in Fantasy Baseball and Basketball, luck is a big factor. If you drafted Steph Curry this year, bad luck kicked you in the sack within the first week of the season. Baseball is a streaky sport, and being lucky enough to have all your players on a hitting tear or having your opponent's team coincidentally all go cold makes or breaks a lot of playoff runs. Injury frequency is probably the one thing that would separate how luck factors into FF over other fantasy sports. There's no avoiding injury in a sport where people are paid to run into each other, and injuries are pretty darn random (Outside of red flag injury prone players).

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1 minute ago, StevenSC400 said:

My post was referring to anyone who said it’s mostly all luck. Not to anyone in general. And of course on occasion some weird things will happen. I’ve been playing in these two leagues for probably 12-13 years. We still have a guy that’s never won it and is in last place this year without a win. And he tries. Starts his players does his draft etc. Some people just aren’t that good.

I'd agree with you that some people are always bad.

But when you have a group of people who know what they are doing, the differential between them is often luck, particularly in the playoffs.

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if it is all luck in a snake draft then how you draft should be irrelevant so you can take your QB-K-dst-TE and backup QB in the  1st 5 rounds because of the randomness that people here claim exists in the game and that team will have the same probability of winning a title as any other in the league.

Correct? 🤣

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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

if it is all luck in a snake draft then how you draft should be irrelevant so you can take your QB-K-dst-TE and backup QB in the  1st 5 rounds because of the randomness that people here claim exists in the game and that team will have the same probability of winning a title as any other in the league.

Correct? 🤣

That's like saying "if playing blackjack is all luck you should stay on 7, correct?"

Doesn't mean that plenty of "skilled" blackjack players haven't lost their house.

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Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

That's like saying "if playing blackjack is all luck you should stay on 7, correct?"

Doesn't mean that plenty of "skilled" blackjack players haven't lost their house.

 

 

Read the title the question posed is fantasy "more luck based" than before, not "if" it is luck based.

If it is "more" luck base then the the scenario I presented is "more" probable 😂

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everyone makes a good point in my experience the insights that everyone provides here does provide some kind of advantage sometimes it's all hype other times you struck gold and made that waiver add or trade ahead of everyone. 

no matter how much research you put in and go with matchups or weather conditions or predicting game scripts sometimes theres always that one or two players in your bench that happen to blow up and the one thing that annoys me the most from someone in your league who you know doesnt do as much research as you goes "dude you f**k up why didnt you start Diggs or C.Kirk they got 40pts you would of won" and your just looking at them like really did you really just ask me that?! 😒

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1 minute ago, dashoe said:

 

 

Read the title the question posed is fantasy "more luck based" than before, not "if" it is luck based.

If it is "more" luck base then the the scenario I presented is "more" probable 😂

Something something books and covers?

I mean the content of OP is discussing variance over time with respect to "more."  In other words, has injury awareness around things like concussions, leading to more missed time for players, led to a less predictable statistical output for our game?

I think that's possible.

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1 hour ago, Ryansm11 said:

Yupppp literally this. Alvin Kamara week 14 2017 I’ll never forget. Waiver pick up for the year, carried my sorry team to the playoffs on a 6 game win streak to end the season, knocked out of game on his first carry. Lost by 9 points in the first round. 

Happened to me too. The year before it was San Diego RB for me

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Skill will get you to the playoffs pretty consistently. It takes luck to win it. 

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If fantasy football was truly ALL luck, you could put the players on NFL rosters in a random generator to pick your lineup and it would have just as good a chance of winning as the next lineup.

I know that sounds like a silly point, but I think it’s an important point.

Generally when we say “fantasy football is luck”, what we mean is that the average joe can go based of consensus draft rankings or consensus weekly projections to set their lineup and have a great chance of beating someone who puts in a ton more time. And that is absolutely true. And I believe that’s because the fantasy football community’s combined SKILL and the Information Age have combined to make rankings, projections, and waiver wire analysis significantly more accurate and readily available than in the past. It makes it a lot more difficult for an individual fantasy team manager to gain a significant advantage over another by investing more time into research and analysis. The fantasy community is already doing it and publishing the results on the internet in real-time for anyone to access. I believe it’s still possible to gain an advantage, but the margins are much slimmer than in the past. An individual’s ability to process information, recognize patterns, and make decisions is still a driver of success in fantasy football, but it’s more difficult for an individual to gain an advantage. Same as poker or any game that combines vast amounts of information processing and luck.

The amount and quality of information available in real-time today vs. 10 years ago is a much bigger driver of the increase in “luck” in fantasy football than anything that’s actually occurred in the game of football. In my opinion. 

With machine learning and artificial intelligence making rapid gains, it will be interesting to see what happens in the fantasy football world over the next 10 years. 

Edited by gufomel
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19 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Something something books and covers?

I mean the content of OP is discussing variance over time with respect to "more."  In other words, has injury awareness around things like concussions, leading to more missed time for players, led to a less predictable statistical output for our game?

I think that's possible.

 

I'm going to stop here  and not go down this mad hatter rabbit hole because it is clear people do not understand "luck", variance, chance etc if the correlation is being made to the concussion protocol . Basically many here have not taken a probability and Statistics 101 course at university😂

 

i'll just posit that people are not as good as they think they are in fantasy so would prefer to blame "luck" than accept that they probably suck. 😂

I will "retire" from this thread now🤣

Edited by dashoe
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Absolutely. 

1) Less preseason to scout

2) More information is available online 

3) RB by committees are increasing

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I won’t guess at percentages but it’s mainly luck. It’s like poker where any given hand mainly comes down to luck. Over time in poker and over many hands, skill wins out. I suppose if you have the due diligence to own 10,000 teams, skill will show more against that population but that’s obviously unrealistic. Given that most people have only a few teams at most, it’s going to be mostly luck.

Edited by jsch08

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47 minutes ago, dashoe said:

Play in an auction league and not snake and you minimize the 'Luck" factor. 

 

You own your pick based on how you value your pick, not the randomness of  a generic ADP where autipick can win the league.

Autopicks can't win auction leagues because smart players will send all the worst players to the  bot.

I agree that a lucky newbie can win a snake league but I have yet to see a lucky newbie win an auction league.

Sounds like the it's luck crowd plly in snake drafts 😂

Man auction is so much better than snake. It’s just more time consuming which can be an issue 

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I tend to think FF has always been at least 50% luck.  Another huge factor, is coaches/coaching, and the game being so specialized.   Years ago, teams would play 2 RB's at most.  Now, teams have 3rd down backs.  2nd and long backs, 3rd and medium backs.  Also, when a team had 1st and goal the 1, they'd just plow their workhorse RB up the middle, at least twice.  Now, like yesterday in the Falcons game, 1st and goal at 1.  The most logical and expected call, would've been Brian Hill (do not own) up the middle.  But, no.  They bring in Javarius Jerkweed off the sideline, for his first touch of the game. That's enough to piss off the pope.  Then you have teams that like to throw two fades minimum from the goal line.  And don't even get me started on that stupid @ss shotgun, jet sweep, tap pass nonsense.  I tend to think coaches (I'm looking at you, Nagy) are the main culprit, of effing with the fun factor.  No longer is their priority, getting in the end zone.  It's proving their genius and creativity to all onlookers, with some 7 wide set, where they run a counter to their 3rd string OT.  Drives me nuts.

Edited by Goatstain3
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its really luck based...u have no control or idea about what is going on behind the scenes...add fake coach speak and you are literally guessing on how a team will use XYZ player....not many belll cow backs...if everyone could draft a mccafrey you may be able to say there is some skill because now everyone has an equal playing field....any given sunday random wr 3 player can have a monster game that a team started out of desperation...also player XYZ can have a terrible matchup and somehow perform well in it...the only thing that is skill based is focusing on where the targets go and the ability to make the tough decisions (guess correctly) and pray you dont have a bunch of injuries

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IMO - Yes! Years ago you could out research other players to gain an edge. Now a guy can do little preparation, join one of a thousand available pay sites, grab their cheatsheet on the way to the draft and come out of the draft with a better team than a guy that researched his butt off for weeks. Anyone that still thinks that fantasy football is almost skill is way over estimating their ability. 

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It's mostly luck but there is a reason why some owners finish near the bottom every year. Draft preparation and good in-season management can make you an above .500 player.

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The initial draft can turn out to be lucky or unlucky depending on injuries throughout the season. To manage a good team requires research and looking weeks ahead to outsmart other managers. Looking for trends and watching games to see who passes the eye test for waiver pickups. I will admit that there is a lot of luck when it comes to drafting but you can manage your future the rest of the season.

Edited by jkendrick2

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