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Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

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I find it somewhat more predictable nowadays with many more stats like air yard targets, yards per route run, yards after contact, DVOA, etc...

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Your schedule also plays a huge role. Nothing more frustrating than leading the league in points by a good margin yet fighting for a playoff spot because you keep facing a blowup week by a scrub.

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2 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You can also get lucky in the sense that your childhood friends/work colleagues, etc are all "Tacos" and you are the only one chewing your fingernails at 3 AM waiting for the waiver wire to open up and have every beat writer on your twitter feed 🤣

That's my league!!!

8-team league, basically "friends & family" with two players who have never done fantasy football before. One of which is a huge Raiders fan and was drafting as many Raiders players as he could.

So what happened? Well, I'd like to think that "skill" is why I am the leading points scorer in the league by over 100 points, and have not had a single week this year that I've scored below the league average.

Of course, "luck" is why I'm only 6-4, and unless things go well tonight, will be in a 4-way tie for 1st place at 6-5 after this week. I've lost twice to the lowest-scoring team in the league, a team that I'm scoring on average 32 points per week higher. 

From top to bottom every single team in this league is between 6-4 and 4-6. Considering the variance between people who prepared for the draft, follow news/etc regarding waiver pickups/etc, and those who didn't, it's absolutely astounding that the league is this tight in W-L records...

 

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2 hours ago, Nap Time said:

The biggest change is that over the last 10 years good info has gradually been spreading to the masses.  It used to be mostly restricted to diehards.

In bars during draft season you have girls picking players based off of looks 

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6 minutes ago, phegotgame14 said:

In bars during draft season you have girls picking players based off of looks 

But I think per OP's contention, I'll bet a lot of those girls do better in FF than the folks who put in the time and research. I.e. luck is a HUGE factor.

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13 minutes ago, jkendrick2 said:

The initial draft can turn out to be lucky or unlucky depending on injuries throughout the season. To manage a good team requires research and looking weeks ahead to outsmart other managers. Looking for trends and watching games to see who passes the eye test for waiver pickups. I will admit that there is a lot of luck when it comes to drafting but you can manage your future the rest of the season.

This is a good thought and generally a great way to go about FF. Drafting well definitely gets you off to a hot start but playing the wire correctly throughout the year is the most important. I’ve won weeks this year with L.Murray going off for two games when Kamara was hurt. Without him my 10-1 roster would’ve lost with buy weeks. I’ve also won games by playing the correct streaming QB or DEF.

 

I started 0-5 in one league, but acquired Lamar early through a trade and had some decent wire pickups. Also, I didn’t blow up my team because I got unlucky and had the most points against. I knew I had good players and kept rolling them out there. Now I am 5-6 and on my way to the playoffs.

 

there is definitely luck involved but if you play in a league for 10+ years you will start to realize there are good and bad fantasy managers. 

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I think one of the most frustrating "bad luck" trends is to have your RB break a big play to get close to the goal line and then the coach runs in another "fresh" RB to vulture the TD. Same with WRs. If my WR breaks a big play to get close to the goal line throw it to him the next play instead of giving a RB the easy score he had nothing to do with.

 

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56 minutes ago, phegotgame14 said:

In bars during draft season you have girls picking players based off of looks 

That is in the later rounds for me after several beers. 😄

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1 hour ago, phegotgame14 said:

In bars during draft season you have girls picking players based off of looks 

Girls?

I took Barkley over CMC because of his thighs. Look who's laughing now...

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1 hour ago, bwarbiany said:

That's my league!!!

8-team league, basically "friends & family" with two players who have never done fantasy football before. One of which is a huge Raiders fan and was drafting as many Raiders players as he could.

So what happened? Well, I'd like to think that "skill" is why I am the leading points scorer in the league by over 100 points, and have not had a single week this year that I've scored below the league average.

Of course, "luck" is why I'm only 6-4, and unless things go well tonight, will be in a 4-way tie for 1st place at 6-5 after this week. I've lost twice to the lowest-scoring team in the league, a team that I'm scoring on average 32 points per week higher. 

From top to bottom every single team in this league is between 6-4 and 4-6. Considering the variance between people who prepared for the draft, follow news/etc regarding waiver pickups/etc, and those who didn't, it's absolutely astounding that the league is this tight in W-L records...

 

 

Over a long period of time in a league like this, you should have a pretty large advantage in W/L record and points scored.

 

IE:  I have a friends and family where I've won only one title over the past 11 years or so, but have made the playoffs every year but one and have like an 80-90% winning percentage.

 

Luck is basically measured in points against and in-game injuries.  Also to some extent turnovers on a game by game basis, but those are somewhat predictable. 

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I'm going to stop here  and not go down this mad hatter rabbit hole because it is clear people do not understand "luck", variance, chance etc if the correlation is being made to the concussion protocol . Basically many here have not taken a probability and Statistics 101 course at university😂

 

i'll just posit that people are not as good as they think they are in fantasy so would prefer to blame "luck" than accept that they probably suck. 😂

I will "retire" from this thread now🤣

I guess I'll just have to buy your book on "predicting concussions in the NFL" to learn more, it wasn't addressed in my stats class.  🤣

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

Play in an auction league and not snake and you minimize the 'Luck" factor. 

 

You own your pick based on how you value your pick, not the randomness of  a generic ADP where autipick can win the league.

Autopicks can't win auction leagues because smart players will send all the worst players to the  bot.

I agree that a lucky newbie can win a snake league but I have yet to see a lucky newbie win an auction league.

Sounds like the it's luck crowd plly in snake drafts 😂

 

Honestly snake leagues feel so Mickey Mouse once you've moved over to auction.  I understand having some cheap snake leagues online just to have more action but your serious league(s) should be auction.

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This season has been out of control, way more so than previous years. It's become too situational now where any random player can pop off depending on the matchups. Guys go for 30 pts 1 week and 0 the next. There's no more reliability and consistency. My opponent plugs in Dwelly this week...2 f'ing TDs and almost had a 3rd. Like wtf. I'm in 3 leagues (1 is dynasty) and I'm leaving the other 2 which I've been in for years after this season. No more joy in it. Dynasty is at least somewhat fun even though all my players are dying this year. 

Edited by LeeVanCleef

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Its always been total luck for the most part, but it used to be more concrete with RBs and order of WRs getting the ball. Now it's just a total free for all ,spread the ball around,  guessing game. There were just more constants back in the previous years .

What is mind blowing is looking at the stats of the older guys like Tomlinson, smith , alexander, etc...go take a look at those stats and your mind will be blown especially the games missed in their careers, its insane how many games tomlinson played season after season with that many carries. I miss those days so badly

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4 hours ago, pushaZ said:

The deeper your leagues the more skill based it is. Terry McLaurin wasn't on waivers week 2 in my league and someone held Chubb all season last year.

10 team leagues is basically roulette save from a couple awesome grabs IMO

Well yes and no. In deeper leagues, one injury can completely derail your season because there's nobody on the wire. In 10 team leagues everybody has good players, and you make your money on the fringes with clever analysis of matchups etc.

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29 minutes ago, LeeVanCleef said:

This season has been out of control, way more so than previous years. It's become too situational now where any random player can pop off depending on the matchups. Guys go for 30 pts 1 week and 0 the next. There's no more reliability and consistency. My opponent plugs in Dwelly this week...2 f'ing TDs and almost had a 3rd. Like wtf. I'm in 3 leagues (1 is dynasty) and I'm leaving the other 2 which I've been in for years after this season. No more joy in it. Dynasty is at least somewhat fun even though all my players are dying this year. 

 

Yeah, but again, he plugs in Dwelley because he knows Kittle is injured and likely to miss out, Sanders is going to be limited, Breida is out, and it's Arizona, who are absolutely shocking against TEs. Was he really lucky? On the CBS podcast they fielded a question about Dwelley vs OJ Howard and went for Dwelley.

It's unlucky that you happened to be facing that guy this week of course, but at that point it's just FF.

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4 hours ago, FitzMagic said:

You are 100% correct. Even with FAAB, it is all luck. It's not skill to outbid someone else. With "transaction trends" everyone is targeting the same waiver adds of the week. There is strategy to trying to jump on a player before his stock rises. Other than that I don't see it not being purely luck. There are no secrets and everyone is getting fed the same information. Smartphone updates, fantasy experts, etc. There was skill involved when I started playing back in 2001. I can't say there is much, if any, now.

 

It's really not all luck with FAAB though, is it? I mean, who was the guy who brought up the analogy with poker earlier? That's neatly applicable to FAAB. You're playing the other guys in your league, just as you're playing the other guys at the table. Even if you all have the same amount of money left, you know the guys who like to splurge early, the guys who like to hold back, the guys who won't realize that somebody dropped Jaylen Samuels, whatever. You can make an educated guess on how much you need to grab DJ Chark, or whoever, and then just let the luck take over.

 

To go back to the original question, I wonder if in at least one way it's become less dependent on luck. Aren't more of us playing PPR or 0.5PPR nowadays?

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16 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

 

Yeah, but again, he plugs in Dwelley because he knows Kittle is injured and likely to miss out, Sanders is going to be limited, Breida is out, and it's Arizona, who are absolutely shocking against TEs. Was he really lucky? On the CBS podcast they fielded a question about Dwelley vs OJ Howard and went for Dwelley.

It's unlucky that you happened to be facing that guy this week of course, but at that point it's just FF.

Yeah but almost 3 TDs? gimme a f'ing break. There are countless other examples. Amendola week 1 (13 targets, 7/114/1). Next game 1 target and a goose egg is one I remember. It just seems like this year compared to others has more star players injured/suspended, random players going off, multiple rookie QBs ruining guys, and tried and true players aren't just plug and forget anymore as only a handful fit that bill now. It's becoming too much of a guessing game. I'm 10-0, 6-4, 6-4 but this has been one of my least favorite years. Idk, maybe im just getting old and jaded.   

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1 minute ago, LeeVanCleef said:

Yeah but almost 3 TDs? gimme a f'ing break. There are countless other examples. Amendola week 1 (13 targets, 7/114/1). Next game 1 target and a goose egg is one I remember. It just seems like this year compared to others has more star players injured/suspended, random players going off, multiple rookie QBs ruining guys, and tried and true players aren't just plug and forget anymore as only a handful fit that bill now. It's becoming too much of a guessing game. I'm 10-0, 6-4, 6-4 but this has been one of my least favorite years. Idk, maybe im just getting old and jaded.   

 

There are a couple of guys who are definitely getting old and jaded in my main league.  I think the rookie QB thing is a really intriguing factor. I do agree to a point, but we'd definitely have to look at a bigger sample size. That said, I'd feel safe in suggesting you're not 10-0, 6-4, and 6-4 because of blind luck.

 

I'm probably just about to go 8-3 in both of my leagues, and there's a significant amount of luck in both, but in different ways. Ultimately you put the work in to give yourself the best chance, and then roll the dice. This week I'm about to win one game despite not realizing Robert Woods was out. I'm up against the previous league leader, who is about to follow scores of 163, 149 and 142 with one that might not break 70. That's a ton of luck right there, and part of the fun.

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