Sign in to follow this  
Gohawks

Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

Recommended Posts

There's certainly a lot of luck / unluck (variance) but it's definitely not "based" around it, as in it doesn't overtake good decision making on the path to success over the course of a full season.

Edited by yahyahtrick

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think in the more competitive leagues, luck is a big factor....but that's probably obvious.

I smoke my 8 team work league where my colleagues grab 2 defenses, 2 Qbs, etc.

My gut also says PPR leagues are more skill based than standard, but I have a small sample size. You can project targets pretty well.

My competitive 10 teamer is always a grind. I'm the dude always stocking my bench w/ lottery picks. Some season they hit and my team is money....sometimes they don't and I grind to be .500.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

when you lose, it's 100% luck. when you win, it's 100% skill. that seems to be the general feeling around these parts. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It has changed for sure. The biggest difference IMO is you have more guys having 30+ point weeks. That seems to be the difference a lot of the time, especially in matchups with pretty even teams. Those are total flukes obviously but can easily win/lose you a championship week. 

Someone else also mentioned it, but the info being so readily available factors in too. Not that that's unlucky, but guys who researched more in the past had an advantage, now you can not pay any attention and just wait for a real-time alert on your phone. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There's more luck than most care to admit. This will be my 22nd year playing. A lot has changed, but it's still better to be lucky than good. I think the "merely lucky" have come out ahead for a few reasons. 

 

 

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, BGDDYKWL said:

It has changed for sure. The biggest difference IMO is you have more guys having 30+ point weeks.

 

I went and took a look at guys who had 40+ point weeks over the past 29 seasons (going back to 1990).  I know you mentioned 30+ points and the number of players hitting that mark, but I was curious to see if there was any uptick in "huge" games in the past five years.  It doesn't look like it.  

 

spacer.png

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Luck is definitely part of the game, but successful players are process orientated and not results orientated and we will win more often that not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm 9-2 1st overall, 2nd in total points. 2nd overall is 8-3 10th in points, but has faced the fewest points by far, so yes luck plays a huge role. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It’s 100% luck now. Used to be those who put in more effort had more knowledge than their opponents in terms of drafting players, matchups, waiver wire, injuries, etc. Those days are gone. All of that information is literally given to all of us with zero effort required. Any extra time spent diving even deeper into stats, matchups, etc is simply time and effort wasted, as all of the relevant information is readily available and provided to all. 

If you’re playing against people who simply don’t care, pay attention, don’t add/drop, don’t trade, forget to set their lineup, etc then you can get a leg up obviously. But when playing among peers who pay attention and remain involved, there’s literally zero way to gain an advantage on your opponent, leaving luck as the only deciding factor.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My views on how to best enjoy fantasy.

Within a general range of ADP, pick players you like. Not just production wise, but guys you can root for. If you feel like you're reaching too far for someone, pick the best player around that ADP you can.

You're more forgiving of the guys you like when they don't produce and it feels much better when they do give you something.

Dynasty is more fun than redraft in this regard. Your guys are yours, you feel a genuine attachment and seeing them make progress and paying off down the stretch is great.

Don't take any of it too seriously. In much the same vein as fantasy players, real life NFL careers have been forged on the pure chance of a favourable dice roll.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, fjthegrey said:

My views on how to best enjoy fantasy.

Within a general range of ADP, pick players you like. Not just production wise, but guys you can root for. If you feel like you're reaching too far for someone, pick the best player around that ADP you can.

You're more forgiving of the guys you like when they don't produce and it feels much better when they do give you something.

Dynasty is more fun than redraft in this regard. Your guys are yours, you feel a genuine attachment and seeing them make progress and paying off down the stretch is great.

Don't take any of it too seriously. In much the same vein as fantasy players, real life NFL careers have been forged on the pure chance of a favourable dice roll.

 

F that.  I am not going to draft a guy cause "I want to root for him".  Whoever I draft I am rooting for.  What in the Sam Hell are you blabbering about boy?  This isn't some prissy little feel good competition.  THIS IS FANTASY FOOTBALL - blood, sweat, tears.....DEATH!!!!  Our egos are on the line year after year.  I can't be drafting players cause "I want to root for them".  pffffffttttttt. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

F that.  I am not going to draft a guy cause "I want to root for him".  Whoever I draft I am rooting for.  What in the Sam Hell are you blabbering about boy?  This isn't some prissy little feel good competition.  THIS IS FANTASY FOOTBALL - blood, sweat, tears.....DEATH!!!!  Our egos are on the line year after year.  I can't be drafting players cause "I want to root for them".  pffffffttttttt. 

🤣

Just in case anyone used "Sam Hill" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Hill_(euphemism)

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No one else has mentioned preseason. In the last 5-10 years...that has been one of the biggest changes of the NFL. 

You used to be able to actually watch teams and see how they will operate. It wasn’t as “close to the chest” that it is nowadays. 

Couple with sleeper article after sleeper article. I used to crush the later rounds. Now, not so much. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Okay okay.  So how do you change your leagues in order to make them more skill-based? 

  • Do you alter the scoring?.  
    •  

Depends on what you'd consider an important "skill" I guess.

To me the most glaring example that fantasy football is random and cruel is in game injuries.  I don't really know how you mitigate that to a controllable.  Allow for real time adjustments if a guy is injured during the game?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I cab't help myself but to comment  🤣

 

No one has yet made a logical case as to how fantasy football has become "more" luck driven or chance based.

The following are elements of chance that exist in fantasy today and in my experience have always existed.

1. injuries are random

2. scoring is random(on field production)

3. Every season some aspect of rules are changed or interpreted (random)

4. officiating is random (some calls are made, some are not,some are mistakes)

5. Suspensions are random

6. organizational movement is random(ownership, coaches front office changes)

7. Trends in team schemes and player selection is random( west coast offense, air raid, spread, mobile QB's, , smaller/bigger linebackers, athleticism of safeties, running back skills and use, etc)

 

So I'm not sure how "more" luck or chance has been introduced to the NFL or the predominant fantasy format of redraft H2H play.

Vegas sportsbooks in a way have similarities to fantasy in that they are games of chance based on certain predictive/forecasting methods  affected by the randomness of NFL games and I have yet to read a single article about how their business model is "more" luck based than in previous years 🤔

Drafting and roster management(add/drops, waiver,weekly lineups) are not random, those are choices based on individual decision making.

 

All I am reading in this thread is that most are having a difficult time developing their process to make better decisions, don't like better competition or are stuck in the good old days. 😂

Edited by dashoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, dashoe said:

No one has yet made a logical case as to how fantasy football has become "more" luck driven or chance based.

1. injuries are random

 

"Random" yes.

More common, or at least more commonly reported, leading to more absences?

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000911123/article/nfl-releases-injury-data-for-2017-season

"Data compiled by IQVIA, an independent third party retained by the league, showed a 13.5 percent increase in diagnosed concussions from 2016 to 2017 (243 to 281) over the preseason and regular season. The increase comes after 28 percent of concussion evaluations came following self-reported by players -- a nine-point increase over last year."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In my competitive money leagues the same good owners seem to be getting the same amount of "luck" today as they did 10 years ago. 

When injuries go up they generally go up across the board and the better owners are better at working the waiver wire/their benches and winning despite the injuries. It's the trash owners that seem to suffer the most from injuries. 

 So I don't think luck has any more of a role in deciding winners as it did 10-20 years ago. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

"Random" yes.

More common, or at least more commonly reported, leading to more absences?

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000911123/article/nfl-releases-injury-data-for-2017-season

"Data compiled by IQVIA, an independent third party retained by the league, showed a 13.5 percent increase in diagnosed concussions from 2016 to 2017 (243 to 281) over the preseason and regular season. The increase comes after 28 percent of concussion evaluations came following self-reported by players -- a nine-point increase over last year."

 

 and you get those reports and u make an informed decision, so it doesnt affect the process of roster management does it?  The game continues with the next man up. NFL teams adjust. 

I for one don't spend draft capital on players like Jordan reed because of his concussion issues. So your point on concussions making the the game more random is irrelevant. a concussion is an injury and injuries are random. 

Again you are not making a convincing argument that shows a concussion fundamentally makes the overall NFL game and scoring 'more' random.  Every team has injuries and some more than others in any given year which is why injuries are a random factor.

Good teams score points, win games, make the playoffs and win super bowls.  

Are you saying good teams like the patriots, Sainst, GB,minn,dal etc have a competitive advantage because they may have players with zero concussions? 

Would you apply your theory to the Patriots dominance over decades and correlate it to concussions?

You are making zero sense with this concussions increase chance theory. I am sure it makes for a great 3 pints deep  'what if" barstool banter😂

 

Edited by dashoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OP - here's my question, just for clarification's sake.

When the "luck v skill over time" issue - do we mean having success in the regular season, or winning the championship?

I feel like these are two separate issues.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 and you get those reports and u make an informed decision, so it doesnt affect the process of roster management does it?  The game continues with the next man up. NFL teams adjust. 

I for one don't spend draft capital on players like Jordan reed because of his concussion issues. So your point on concussions making the the game more random is irrelevant. a concussion is an injury and injuries are random. 

Again you are not making a convincing argument that shows a concussion fundamentally makes the overall NFL game and scoring 'more' random.  Every team has injuries and some more than others in any given year which is why injuries are a random factor.

Good teams score points, win games, make the playoffs and win super bowls.  

Are you saying good teams like the patriots, Sainst, GB,minn,dal etc have a competitive advantage because they may have players with zero concussions? 

Would you apply your theory to the Patriots dominance over decades and correlate it to concussions?

You are making zero sense with this concussions increase chance theory. I am sure it makes for a great 3 pints deep  'what if" barstool banter😂

 

NFL teams adjust.

But if you are playing fantasy football in week 15 and your player is concussed you do not.

That's my point.

You can avoid Jordan Reed all you want to.  But as evinced by the 2017 Alvin Kamara owners in this thread - being aware of a player's concussion history is a controllable, having a player with no such history getting one at a critical moment is not.

And incidents of these occurrences, going by the data, rose from 2016 to 2017.

To me that doesn't scream "skill."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

NFL teams adjust.

But if you are playing fantasy football in week 15 and your player is concussed you do not.

That's my point.

You can avoid Jordan Reed all you want to.  But as evinced by the 2017 Alvin Kamara owners in this thread - being aware of a player's concussion history is a controllable, having a player with no such history getting one at a critical moment is not.

And incidents of these occurrences, going by the data, rose from 2016 to 2017.

To me that doesn't scream "skill."

 

 

Honestly dude, i don't even know what your real point is and I'm almost convinced that you don't know what it is either. 😂

A concussion is an injury.

Injuries remove players from games or limit their production 

You still have not explained how the specific injury of a concussion has created "more" chance in fantasy vs turf toe or a broken finger or a hamstring or any other ills and ailments classified as injury,.

All injuries that take a player off the field require NFL and fantasy teams to make adjustments because they can't use that player. 

Edited by dashoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.