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Gohawks

Is fantasy football getting more and more luck based?

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Just now, dashoe said:

 

 

Honestly dude, i don't even know what your real point is and I'm almost convinced that you don't know what it is either. 😂

A concussion is an injury.

Injuries remove players from games or limit their production 

You still have not explained how the specific injury of a concussion has created "more" chance in fantasy vs turf toe or a broken finger or a hamstring or any other ills and ailments classified as injury,.

Honestly dude, I think your only point in this thread is to argue against a strawman and toot your own horn instead of discussing the points actually made.

I'm good here with your retirement.

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16 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 and you get those reports and u make an informed decision, so it doesnt affect the process of roster management does it?  The game continues with the next man up. NFL teams adjust. 

I for one don't spend draft capital on players like Jordan reed because of his concussion issues. So your point on concussions making the the game more random is irrelevant. a concussion is an injury and injuries are random. 

Again you are not making a convincing argument that shows a concussion fundamentally makes the overall NFL game and scoring 'more' random.  Every team has injuries and some more than others in any given year which is why injuries are a random factor.

Good teams score points, win games, make the playoffs and win super bowls.  

Are you saying good teams like the patriots, Sainst, GB,minn,dal etc have a competitive advantage because they may have players with zero concussions? 

Would you apply your theory to the Patriots dominance over decades and correlate it to concussions?

You are making zero sense with this concussions increase chance theory. I am sure it makes for a great 3 pints deep  'what if" barstool banter😂

 

 

Isn't his point simply that injuries are a (more or less) random or lucky factor, and so if injuries that take players out of the game are increasing, then one element of luck is increasing?

I'm interested about the suggestion that more inexperienced QBs are having to start, which is hitting the value of players like JuJu, Tyler Boyd, Golladay etc etc. No idea if this is more prevalent now than it's been in the past though.

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3 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

 

Isn't his point simply that injuries are a (more or less) random or lucky factor, and so if injuries that take players out of the game are increasing, then one element of luck is increasing?

I'm interested about the suggestion that more inexperienced QBs are having to start, which is hitting the value of players like JuJu, Tyler Boyd, Golladay etc etc. No idea if this is more prevalent now than it's been in the past though.

 

Injuries are random and they can happen to any player on any team in any year, so simply because it happens to players on your team means you are personally unlucky.  There are teams every year in your league that have injured players and no injured players.

This does not make fantasy football overall more lucky or less lucky overall vs "years ago" Every year someone in a league is going to complain about injuries to his team, last season i lost 3 players in 2 weeks this year i lost 1. i wouldnt extrapolate my personal experience to mean that everyone in fantasy is experiencing my personal luck or lack of it. 

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9 minutes ago, leffe186 said:

 

Isn't his point simply that injuries are a (more or less) random or lucky factor, and so if injuries that take players out of the game are increasing, then one element of luck is increasing?

Yes, that is my point - and given that we play a once weekly game, and that many of our goals include winning in the playoffs and not win just the largest amount of weeks, that just being able to make roster adjustments based on in season analysis gets trumped in those critical times by something we can't control.  And those incidents of times when those uncontrollables are rising by the data, lending itself to what I understand to be OP's point.

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2 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Injuries are random and they can happen to any player on any team in any year, so simply because it happens to players on your team means you are personally unlucky.  There are teams every year in your league that have injured players and no injured players.

This does not make fantasy football overall more lucky or less lucky overall vs "years ago" Every year someone in a league is going to complain about injuries to his team, last season i lost 3 players in 2 weeks this year i lost 1. i wouldnt extrapolate my personal experience to mean that everyone in fantasy is experiencing my personal luck or lack of it. 

 

OK we get all of that. I think you're missing the point.

Again, as you say, injuries are (more or less) random, and so luck plays a major part. The point is that if there is more playing time lost to injuries now than there was, say, five years ago, then there's more luck involved in FF. In this respect at least.

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A novice follower of the NFL can win a FF title. 

 

You can draft players based on the pre-rankings and summaries for each player and get lucky if a majority of the players come through without suffering a major injury. One thing an average follower of football cannot do is get unlucky in the draft and still end up doing good. That's where the more 'experienced' owners can make up for the duds by drafting sleepers and making the right add/drops/trades. 

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1 hour ago, dashoe said:

I cab't help myself but to comment  🤣

 

No one has yet made a logical case as to how fantasy football has become "more" luck driven or chance based.

The following are elements of chance that exist in fantasy today and in my experience have always existed.

1. injuries are random

2. scoring is random(on field production)

3. Every season some aspect of rules are changed or interpreted (random)

4. officiating is random (some calls are made, some are not,some are mistakes)

5. Suspensions are random

6. organizational movement is random(ownership, coaches front office changes)

7. Trends in team schemes and player selection is random( west coast offense, air raid, spread, mobile QB's, , smaller/bigger linebackers, athleticism of safeties, running back skills and use, etc)

 

So I'm not sure how "more" luck or chance has been introduced to the NFL or the predominant fantasy format of redraft H2H play.

Vegas sportsbooks in a way have similarities to fantasy in that they are games of chance based on certain predictive/forecasting methods  affected by the randomness of NFL games and I have yet to read a single article about how their business model is "more" luck based than in previous years 🤔

Drafting and roster management(add/drops, waiver,weekly lineups) are not random, those are choices based on individual decision making.

 

All I am reading in this thread is that most are having a difficult time developing their process to make better decisions, don't like better competition or are stuck in the good old days. 😂

 

I'm just getting too old for the sport.  I'm actually performing much better today than I was in yesteryear when there was "less luck" involved. ha

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I think fantasy football is more unpredictable than it ever has been for sure.  With that said I think a savvy owner can take advantage of the chaos and actually excel on a more consistent basis.   

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Luck based completely. I have Julio, Godwin, Kupp, and had Lockett(up until this week when I traded him), all in my starting lineup all season(2wr spots and 2 flex spots PPR), and I'm 4-7 and in 8th place out of 10. Also have Russel Wilson as my qb

in no way should that team be in 2nd to last place

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6 minutes ago, OrangeCrush said:

Player matchups are key. 

I think this is overrated

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This game has gotten more luck driven a little due to various little things but it has always been a centered around timing and a flawed league system most people play in 
(which is a separate topic altogether and I'll add a little color at the bottom)

 

Even if you have the best team during the regular season and get week a 14 bye, that one week 15 decides your whole season because if you lose you play for 3rd and can't win it all. It's happened to me 6 or 7 times over the past 17 yrs doing this. Best team during the year, get the bye, lose week 15 due to bad timing of stats and the randomness of schedule, injuries or unexpected good play of a lesser player.

If you consistently make the playoffs over many years there is real skill in that, but all of us all subject to the randomness of the game boiled down into an extremely small time frame.

We also need to build better league structures to help remove luck.

Many of you determine standings purely by head to head wins and losses which is flawed in and of itself and introduces another layer of luck. A better way is a system that rewards points,10 point for a win (then a decreasing amount for each team's total points for that week)  and automatic 10 point for a W. So a week high man gets 20 points, and even if you get unlucky, play the high man, and have the second highest points for that week you would get 9 points for that week).

This is for everyone complaining their team with the 3rd highest point total for the year is 4-7. You're playing in flawed system that outside of injuries, randomness of stats and schedule, lack of bellcows etc your league is simply broken and allows weaker teams to sneak by based on luck on what team they played and the vaunted points against metric.

 

There's a lot to uncover here and many layers of luck involved.

 

 

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A few things that have leveled the playing field (which can certainly increase the percentage/impact of the luck factor):

1) the increase in team owners across the board (more people playing)

2) the extensive information readily available at the click of button for all those owners (not as many gullible owners and/or owners lacking pertinent FFBall knowledge) *fewer mistakes being made by our competition.

While, "luck favors the prepared"...it's just that, more owners are prepared :shrug:

 

Edited by FollowTheLeader

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20 hours ago, Gohawks said:

I have a strong hypotenus that it is

So would you say that your shorter sides of the triangle are weaker?

 

Fwiw I'm going with FFB is 70% luck and 30% paying attention

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Absolutely it is. With RBBC and stupid coaches/OCs, the stud RBs are hard to come by. 5 years ago, Bell doesn't come out inside the 5 for a hack backup. Ingram scores the inside 5 yard TDs, not Gus Edwards. In dynasty, it's way harder to field a powerhouse team.

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Finding Ryan Griffin on the waiver wire in place of an injured Hooper is what takes skill. That still exists.

Edited by FavreCo

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7 minutes ago, FavreCo said:

Finding Ryan Griffin on the waiver wire in place of an injured Hooper is what takes skill. That still exists.

Or, you were lucky that Hooper's injury came at just the moment before Griffin really took off. Because if you hadn't needed a TE at that precise moment, someone else would have scooped him up after the blowup?

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43 minutes ago, fjthegrey said:

Or, you were lucky that Hooper's injury came at just the moment before Griffin really took off. Because if you hadn't needed a TE at that precise moment, someone else would have scooped him up after the blowup?

No, it's scooping him up BEFORE the big game and looking at the schedule. Knowing who he is and what he can do, paired with a QB that throws to the TE. THAT is skill. The luck part is the Herndon injury that allowed this guy to become the starter. Skill is seeing the potential in HOU but knowing he had a hack OC and QB holding him back.

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17 minutes ago, FavreCo said:

No, it's scooping him up BEFORE the big game and looking at the schedule. Knowing who he is and what he can do, paired with a QB that throws to the TE. THAT is skill. The luck part is the Herndon injury that allowed this guy to become the starter. Skill is seeing the potential in HOU but knowing he had a hack OC and QB holding him back.

Can't wait what you say when he loses you your week by posting 0.5 points.

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1 hour ago, roadawg said:

This game has gotten more luck driven a little due to various little things but it has always been a centered around timing and a flawed league system most people play in 
(which is a separate topic altogether and I'll add a little color at the bottom)

 

Even if you have the best team during the regular season and get week a 14 bye, that one week 15 decides your whole season because if you lose you play for 3rd and can't win it all. It's happened to me 6 or 7 times over the past 17 yrs doing this. Best team during the year, get the bye, lose week 15 due to bad timing of stats and the randomness of schedule, injuries or unexpected good play of a lesser player.

If you consistently make the playoffs over many years there is real skill in that, but all of us all subject to the randomness of the game boiled down into an extremely small time frame.

We also need to build better league structures to help remove luck.

Many of you determine standings purely by head to head wins and losses which is flawed in and of itself and introduces another layer of luck. A better way is a system that rewards points,10 point for a win (then a decreasing amount for each team's total points for that week)  and automatic 10 point for a W. So a week high man gets 20 points, and even if you get unlucky, play the high man, and have the second highest points for that week you would get 9 points for that week).

This is for everyone complaining their team with the 3rd highest point total for the year is 4-7. You're playing in flawed system that outside of injuries, randomness of stats and schedule, lack of bellcows etc your league is simply broken and allows weaker teams to sneak by based on luck on what team they played and the vaunted points against metric.

 

There's a lot to uncover here and many layers of luck involved.

 

 

 

Can we stop saying "flawed" or "better" in this context? It's just different. I think it's more fun having head-to-head, and would be more boring having the overall points stuff involved. There's more potential for banter in my leagues. I don't think it's better or worse, it's just my personal preference.

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Head to head is mostly just luck.  You have no control over your opponents schedule.  3 out of the top 5 scoring teams in my league have losing records.  That makes no sense, just randomness.  

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If you're in a league where all 10-12 owners care enough to do basic research you're not winning s--- without luck playing a huge role in it.

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