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Sidearmer

Tommy Edman 2020 Outlook

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Edman quietly had a very solid season, posting a line of .304 / 11 HR / 15 SB / 59 R / 36 RBI in only 349 plate appearances. He posted very similar numbers in AAA the first half of the season, and similar numbers in the minors in 2018 as well (with less power, but juiced ball in 2019). Edman is one of those nice players that could really benefit from the juiced ball. If you extrapolate his numbers over the past 2 years over a full season of appearances you are looking at something like .300 / 18 HR / 25 SB / 90 R / 60 RBI being attainable. Those would be top 50 numbers. Big question this year will be the playing time, but I think that will work itself out. Edman can play at 2B, 3B, or anywhere in the OF - they'll find time for him. Not to mention he will be eligible at all 3 positions in most formats. Last year he essentially took Matt Carpenter's starting job toward the end of the year. As it stands now, Edman is on outside looking in, but there is a bunch of mediocrity in front of him: Carpenter and Wong in the infield; Fowler, Bader, O'Neill, and Martinez in the outfield. If Edman produces like he has the last 2 years he will get a shot and stick, providing fantasy players with elite value.

It is also important to note the scarcity of speed this year, and more importantly how a majority of the speed guys are one dimensional. Edman has a chance to be a legit 4-5 category player and has multi-positional eligibility.

He's still relatively young - this will be his age 25 season. There's no reason why he can't continue to improve. He may not have the elite prospect hype but this is a guy who's produced in the minors for two years then at 24 continued to produce at the major league level. I will gladly take a chance on him.

Edited by Sidearmer
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I like his tool set but he's going at #132 while a guy like Kevin Newman (2B/SS - PIT) will be leading off, has a secure job, has a similar skill set, and can be had at #213.  Even Hampson is going at #167 and has much more upside.  Nothing against Edman, I'd happily draft him if he came later, but he seems too pricey at the moment.

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Edman is gona play a ton. He's slated for a super utility role and I think the cardinals no better then then to keep one of their better hitters on the bench for too many games. Muti eligible, high BA and steaks 20+ bags. His run totals will be damn solid imo and I'm willing to trade the rbi total for BA and the SB. This is a kid I'll be targeting for sure and will be ecstatic to obtain his services late in my draft. 

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If Carpenter can't figure out his 2019 problems after the first month or two Edman could be finding his way into the lineup at 3B more often than not.  As of now the OF offensively is a bunch of question marks so there should be ample opportunity there as well, however I assume at some point they will be forced to move Carlson up to the big squad...and you have to assume he won't be sitting too terribly often once he arrives.  But as Mrmann1 mentioned, I think the Cards currently are wanting him to be an everyday player all over giving everyone rest rather than slotting in everyday at the same position.  He's the type of player that's going to be gold in daily leagues with the multi position eligibility.  

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Edman could be Marwin Gonzalez 2.0, just with a lot more speed.  That is a very good utility player and a borderline starter for fantasy.

Marwin showed near zero power in the minors, and then started hitting 15-25HR after a couple of seasons in the majors.

If the ball is still juiced, I think 15HR/20SB with a .280avg is a reasonable outcome for Edman this year if he can get 500ABs.

Edman showed an excellent contact rate last year, so if he can increase his BB% even a little bit, I like his chances to being top 10 in SBs.

Edited by Hellgrammite
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1 hour ago, Hellgrammite said:

Edman could be Marwin Gonzalez 2.0, just with a lot more speed.  That is a very good utility player and a borderline starter for fantasy.

Marwin showed near zero power in the minors, and then started hitting 15-25HR after a couple of seasons in the majors.

If the ball is still juiced, I think 15HR/20SB with a .280avg is a reasonable outcome for Edman this year if he can get 500ABs.

Edman showed an excellent contact rate last year, so if he can increase his BB% even a little bit, I like his chances to being top 10 in SBs.


Marwin Gonzalez has been pretty mediocre other than the two years he cheated - his BB/K rate pretty much doubled those years.  Maybe not the best comp, ha. 

Edited by OaksterDan
forgot to finish my thought
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On 2/20/2020 at 7:22 PM, Hellgrammite said:

Edman could be Marwin Gonzalez 2.0, just with a lot more speed.  That is a very good utility player and a borderline starter for fantasy.

Marwin showed near zero power in the minors, and then started hitting 15-25HR after a couple of seasons in the majors.

If the ball is still juiced, I think 15HR/20SB with a .280avg is a reasonable outcome for Edman this year if he can get 500ABs.

Edman showed an excellent contact rate last year, so if he can increase his BB% even a little bit, I like his chances to being top 10 in SBs.

He stole 15 in 325 abs. I personally see 25ish in his profile this season. 

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On 2/20/2020 at 8:30 PM, OaksterDan said:


Marwin Gonzalez has been pretty mediocre other than the two years he cheated - his BB/K rate pretty much doubled those years.  Maybe not the best comp, ha. 

I think he's more alluding to the very position eligibility.  

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Matt Carpenter is already having back issues.  I think even if he is ready for opening day, Carpenter is probably going to be benched 2-3 days a week unless he is knocking the cover off the ball.

Edman def. is going to get a lot of 3B and OF appearances this season in my mind.

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So does Edman open the season as a starter?  Or does he need an injury or downturn in performance to get in the lineup everyday?

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High risk, high reward. He could be the next Whit Merrifield from 2018 or he could be a utility hitter with little value other than the SB’s you could’ve gotten cheaper elsewhere. 

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5 hours ago, Magnus88 said:

So does Edman open the season as a starter?  Or does he need an injury or downturn in performance to get in the lineup everyday?

He should start in right field much of the time and fill in enough in other places to keep his multi-position mojo going.  IF there is a season they intend to play a couple of double headers a week so he would probably be playing every single day either both games or at least one under that scenario.

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Cardinals seem to want to play him everywhere but not be a dedicated starter anywhere. I think his talent will win out and he will play every day. If basically any player needs an off day or gets hurt, he is the back up at every position so he will get in.

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18 minutes ago, street sharks said:

Is he going to stick in the #2 spot?

That was the plan Shildt went to by the end of camp. If it’s working, as it has so far, it will stick. He’s been one of the team’s best three hitters since last July.

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16 game sample size.  His 2019 season between the minors & majors:

.305 AVG, 98 runs, 18 HR, 24 SB

He hits in the #2 slot in front of Goldschmidt.  And there are plenty of doubleheaders yet to come. 

 

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He was never really much of a prospect, topping out around a #20 rank in a below average farm system before he was called up.  His bat was just a bit above average throughout the minors, making his success in 2019 a surprise to everyone, probably including the St. Louis brass.  I don't know why we should assume his 2019 performance in just ~350 PA is the norm -- maybe he's just kind of in between what we're seeing now and what we saw last year, in which case moving on in redraft with just a month to go is perfectly defensible.

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It looks like he developed some power last year, though.  In 2018, he was a .300 hitter with 30 SB, but only 7 HR.  And then he posted a .500 slugging percentage across the minors & majors last year - a 100 point increase over the previous year.  Was it a fluke, or did he just make a quantum leap?  

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3 minutes ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

And then he posted a .500 slugging percentage across the minors & majors last year - a 100 point increase over the previous year.  Was it a fluke, or did he just make a quantum leap?  

 

Slugging percentage counts doubles and triples that don't help roto players much, but even if you're thinking more in a points league context, the 2019 statcast numbers were pretty uninspiring:

image.png.2723a62824faca0dabb9441e69936597.png

 

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4 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

Slugging percentage counts doubles and triples that don't help roto players much, but even if you're thinking more in a points league context, the 2019 statcast numbers were pretty uninspiring:

image.png.2723a62824faca0dabb9441e69936597.png

 


I hear you, the ball isn’t exactly exploding off of his bat.  But damn near 60 extra-base hits from a table setter is pretty nice.  He’s an asset in AVG, runs, and SB first and foremost.  

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1 minute ago, Tommy Lee Jones said:

 He’s an asset in AVG, runs, and SB first and foremost.  

 

Well, he was, in about a half a season.  I get that SB are hard to find without dragging you down everywhere else, but maybe we're seeing the downside we didn't get a chance to see last year.  That's all I was really getting at.

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