murraygd13

Danny Santana 2020 Outlook

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Danny Santana should have a wide variability in where he is drafted or how much he costs at auction this year.  Could he be a steal and contribute 30 HR/30 SB? Will his poor plate discipline lead to a poor batting average and a benching.  He ended last season as the 14th most valuable hitter in the American League.

Edited by murraygd13

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Had him, dropped him, don't want to talk about it. Will say this, if the price is right, I'd love to own him this year.

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31 minutes ago, Topgun said:

Had him, dropped him, don't want to talk about it. Will say this, if the price is right, I'd love to own him this year.

 

what is the right price?  is he one of those guys who benefited greatly from juiced ball?

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

 

what is the right price?  is he one of those guys who benefited greatly from juiced ball?

Maybe, the ball isn't going to change in my opinion in 2020, maybe $5.

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Guy isn't new to the MLB and definitely had a breakout year this year, but many signs point to an anomaly season. 

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4 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

Guy isn't new to the MLB and definitely had a breakout year this year, but many signs point to an anomaly season. 

Eh as long as the ball is juiced he will be fine.  He is the type of guy who benefited most via the juicing. 

And all signs have already pointed to 1B/2B/3B/SS/(OF)/RF/CF/LF eligibility in 2020 on Yahoo.  I checked and he will retaining all 7 positions which is great in RF/CF/LF leagues especially.  Swiss army knife bench player.  Locked and loaded for all 7 positions in 2020 for sure.  Thank you Yahoo.

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Santana is going to be a difficult guy for me to rank in 2020. .283/.324/.534 with 28hr's and 21sb's in 2019 was undoubtably sexy, but it came with a 4.9% bb rate, 29.5% k rate, 41.9% chase rate, and 15.7% swinging strike rate. The poor plate discipline and high BABIP (.353) point to obvious regression in the batting average department, but his Statcast numbers were pretty solid. He finished in the top 10 percent in average exit velo and increased his launch angle to 13.5, up from 9.4 and 3.4 the previous years. His multi-position eligibility and 20/20 upside will have me owning some shares as long as his ADP, currently 121 in the NFBC, is reasonable.

Edited by meh2
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Unless I'm missing something,  not seeing him retaining SS elig in yahoo with only 9 starts/games played there in 2019. 5 is for in-season elig, 10 to carry over to the next season, and him retaining SS elig is the make or break, for my team anyway. But how realistic is it that he comes even close to what he did in '19? I mean, launch angle, exit velo all look good, is the breakout real? Or another juiced ball outlier?

Tough call in keeper/dynasty's where teams are set at those positions. He could be a nice bench bat, but again, roster construct will dictate...

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He has legitimate 30/30 potential, but could also be hitting .220  and find himself on the bench in June. I think there will be someone in every draft/auction that will reach for him, that won't be me. From 2015 to 2018 he has a putrid hitter, and this includes the minors. The tools look for real, and he did make improvements with launch angle and hard hit %, but those could only go so far with the swing and miss profile he also has. For what its worth Steamer has him and .248 AVG / .294 OBP, which looks fair to me.

While he does have utility to play multiple positions, he was overall a terrible defender in 2019, so its not like Rangers are forced to trot him out there. If he goes into a deep slump, he will start to lose playing time. The benching risk to me puts him out of the question in the top 10 or so rounds. On Fantrax he has an ADP of 110, so I'd definitely be out on that.

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3 hours ago, meh2 said:

Santana is going to be a difficult guy for me to rank in 2020. .283/.324/.534 with 28hr's and 21sb's in 2019 was undoubtably sexy, but it came with a 4.9% bb rate, 29.5% k rate, 41.9% chase rate, and 15.7% swinging strike rate. The poor plate discipline and high BABIP (.353) point to obvious regression in the batting average department, but his Statcast numbers were pretty solid. He finished in the top 10 percent in average exit velo and increased his launch angle to 13.5, up from 9.4 and 3.4 the previous years. His multi-position eligibility and 20/20 upside will have me owning some shares as long as his ADP, currently 121 in the NFBC, is reasonable.

 

121 seems very reasonable.  i though hed be more in that 75-100 range which i dont think i will do.

 

how would you guys rank him compared to say Jeff Mcniel who has multiple position elig

Edited by jfazz23

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5 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

121 seems very reasonable.  i though hed be more in that 75-100 range which i dont think i will do.

 

how would you guys rank him compared to say Jeff Mcniel who has multiple position elig

 

I would rate McNeil much higher. There's no risk of him being benched or basically being a non-MLB talent - which Santana has been over the last 4 years. McNeil is a virtual guarantee for elite average and runs, and he will throw in 20+ HR and occasional steal. I'll take the maybe 15 less SB from McNeil to get his potentially 50-100 points more in average.

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Just now, Sidearmer said:

 

I would rate McNeil much higher. There's no risk of him being benched or basically being a non-MLB talent - which Santana has been over the last 4 years. McNeil is a virtual guarantee for elite average and runs, and he will throw in 20+ HR and occasional steal. I'll take the maybe 15 less SB from McNeil to get his potentially 50-100 points more in average.

 

yea i was thinking along the same lines.  MAYBE santana has more upside, but McNeil is a legit hitter in an above avg lineup now. plus i think McNeil, if Healthy, can do something like 315-325 with 25 (maybe more with the juiced ball) HRs.  not sure hell steal, but 10 SB would be icing on the cake.

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7 hours ago, FISH ON said:

Unless I'm missing something,  not seeing him retaining SS elig in yahoo with only 9 starts/games played there in 2019. 5 is for in-season elig, 10 to carry over to the next season, and him retaining SS elig is the make or break, for my team anyway. But how realistic is it that he comes even close to what he did in '19? I mean, launch angle, exit velo all look good, is the breakout real? Or another juiced ball outlier?

Tough call in keeper/dynasty's where teams are set at those positions. He could be a nice bench bat, but again, roster construct will dictate...

No.  For Yahoo eligibility it is 5 games started for BOTH in season eligibility AND the following season.  Also has been. 

ESPN has some sort of in games in season quantity vs eligible for next season quantity differences but Yahoo has always always been straight up 5 starts means they are eligible for next year as well. 

Or 10 "appearances" if that gets you there easier but 9 times out of 10 the "starts" is good enough.  Maybe you somehow got the "or appearances" at 10 being starts at ten for next year.  And it is "or" and not "and".  You just have to meet the eligibility requirements on one or the other category (games started or game appearances) to get eligibility for next year.  Most times a player will meet both but they do NOT have to.  Just one is enough.  Because, again, it is an "OR" things and not an "AND" thing.

Now if you are in a private Yahoo league where somehow you have separate rules written out then maybe but I don't think you can change Yahoo's eligibility rules at all as a commish.  I mean I just went and checked and didn't see anyway to change the eligibility rules on the Yahoo platform at all.

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Wasn't it 2 seasons ago that Rizzo gained 2b elig on yahoo with 10 due soley to the shift? There was some grumblings about that that I remember, both here and in my league..so while I may be mistaken, not trying to start anything with you, but I think that you sir are mistaken, less than 10 games started/appeared at any given fielding position will not carry over to the next season. 

I pointed out that the number is 5 games in season to gain elig at fielding positions for that current season, but the site is vague about the carry over number, it actually does not address what is needed to carry over, only addresses the current season requirements....read it again to see if you can see anything that I missed....meaning, find where it states what is needed for next season, not the current one, and I will gladly admit my mistake...

thank you....

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@FISH ON bbt has it right.  Yahoo makes no distinction between carry over eligibility.  If you acquired it last year,  you have it the next.  Either by 5 starts or 10 appearances.  

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1 hour ago, FISH ON said:

Wasn't it 2 seasons ago that Rizzo gained 2b elig on yahoo with 10 due soley to the shift? There was some grumblings about that that I remember, both here and in my league..so while I may be mistaken, not trying to start anything with you, but I think that you sir are mistaken, less than 10 games started/appeared at any given fielding position will not carry over to the next season. 

I pointed out that the number is 5 games in season to gain elig at fielding positions for that current season, but the site is vague about the carry over number, it actually does not address what is needed to carry over, only addresses the current season requirements....read it again to see if you can see anything that I missed....meaning, find where it states what is needed for next season, not the current one, and I will gladly admit my mistake...

thank you....

That was because Rizzo had 10 appearances at 2b. If he had 5 starts there, that would've been moot. 

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6 hours ago, FISH ON said:

Wasn't it 2 seasons ago that Rizzo gained 2b elig on yahoo with 10 due soley to the shift? There was some grumblings about that that I remember, both here and in my league..so while I may be mistaken, not trying to start anything with you, but I think that you sir are mistaken, less than 10 games started/appeared at any given fielding position will not carry over to the next season. 

I pointed out that the number is 5 games in season to gain elig at fielding positions for that current season, but the site is vague about the carry over number, it actually does not address what is needed to carry over, only addresses the current season requirements....read it again to see if you can see anything that I missed....meaning, find where it states what is needed for next season, not the current one, and I will gladly admit my mistake...

thank you....

What the two posters -- WahooManiac and OaksterDan -- above said.  It is either 5 starts OR 10 appearances.  Rizzo had 10 "appearances" but not 5 "starts" so he met one of the two possible ways to re-qualify which was all he needed.  Trust me.  I've been on Yahoo for over 10 years.  Five starts in a season carries over even if there are no 10 "appearances."  I have had many many dynasty players meet the 5 "starts" but not the 10 "appearances" requirement over the years there at some position and they remained eligible the following season.  Yahoo is pretty clear about that.  "Starts" have always been 5 and "appearances" have always been 10 and meeting just one of those requirements carries that position over to the next season.  Danny Santana WILL have SS eligibility again this coming season on Yahoo.  You can bank on it.  So no worries, you  can celebrate.

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On 12/3/2019 at 11:53 PM, The Big Bat Theory said:

What the two posters -- WahooManiac and OaksterDan -- above said.  It is either 5 starts OR 10 appearances.  Rizzo had 10 "appearances" but not 5 "starts" so he met one of the two possible ways to re-qualify which was all he needed.  Trust me.  I've been on Yahoo for over 10 years.  Five starts in a season carries over even if there are no 10 "appearances."  I have had many many dynasty players meet the 5 "starts" but not the 10 "appearances" requirement over the years there at some position and they remained eligible the following season.  Yahoo is pretty clear about that.  "Starts" have always been 5 and "appearances" have always been 10 and meeting just one of those requirements carries that position over to the next season.  Danny Santana WILL have SS eligibility again this coming season on Yahoo.  You can bank on it.  So no worries, you  can celebrate.

Agree with the other.  Have been in Yahoo for over 15 years, and for sure, as stated these are the position eligibility requirements.  One caveat, if they start 2 games at SS and 3 games at 2B, for instance, then they would qualify for MI and NOT either of the positions if your league has the MI/CI designations.

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Starting CF now...

Regression is coming. How much I dunno. I would be shocked if he takes up another level.

I would imagine mediocre BA/OBP with 20-20 possibility.

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, papasmurf said:

Starting CF now...

Regression is coming. How much I dunno. I would be shocked if he takes up another level.

I would imagine mediocre BA/OBP with 20-20 possibility.

 

He was a pretty bad defender last year, I'd imagine he will have trouble in CF. Getting rid of DeShields does limit some of the bench risk, however, if he regresses to his career norms he will still likely find the bench.

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I would expect the Rangers to be making some more moves. Now they're projected to be starting Santana in CF, and a Ronald Guzman / Heineman platoon at 1B. For a team looking to take a big leap forward in 2020, seems like they would address at least one of these spots. 

From a defensive perspective I would think Santana is better hidden at 1B than out in CF. And whatever happens he's versatile enough he should see regular ABs somewhere. 

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16 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

I would expect the Rangers to be making some more moves. Now they're projected to be starting Santana in CF, and a Ronald Guzman / Heineman platoon at 1B. For a team looking to take a big leap forward in 2020, seems like they would address at least one of these spots. 

From a defensive perspective I would think Santana is better hidden at 1B than out in CF. And whatever happens he's versatile enough he should see regular ABs somewhere. 

 

i could see rangers going for EE on a 1 year deal for 1b/dh

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8 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

i could see rangers going for EE on a 1 year deal for 1b/dh

 

I wouldn't be surprised at all, but that would really create some fielding issues with Santana in CF and EE at 1B. Plus they also project Nick Solak at 3B, who isn't used to that spot and has always definitely been a bat first prospect. 

Choo is still on the roster and likely to DH most of the time since he is a defensive liability as well. If they signed EE they'd have about 3-4 players who should all realistically be DH's but most of whom will have to find spots in the field. With the money they've sunk into pitching, you'd think they'd work harder at giving them some defense to get the outs. 

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Eno Sarris, The Athletic: Sarris: Does WAR matter for fantasy baseball?

Some Danny Santana-relevant excerpts for the paywall-challenged:

Quote

One of these projections will probably be wrong in 2020. If Santana is that bad, he won’t get 588 plate appearances. Or he’ll be better than his projection, and so then he’ll play. Of the six qualified batters who were below replacement last year, five were veterans on guaranteed contracts with long track records, and the other was Orlando Arcia, a supposedly good defender at a premium position.

So, should we use Santana’s bad WAR projection to rethink his decent fantasy projection? How much should a player’s WAR projection matter? [...]

Ah! So, generally bad players are a bad investment. Phew. Those low WAR players are generally not productive in fantasy, it’s just that some are productive enough to make the return slightly better than the projected cost. [...]

What you might notice are some players where defensive numbers have had differing opinions on their production. Dickerson was supposedly a butcher in the outfield, but Statcast’s Outs Above Average said he was league average last year. Rajai Davis was in the 45th percentile in 2016 by OAA, maybe UZR had it wrong. Santana? 193rd out of 218 qualified infielders last year in the new infield OAA. Not good.

So, instead, Santana belongs in something like the DH bin. And analysts often point to recent DH-only successes, players like Nelson Cruz and Shohei Ohtani, in order to say that this class of players are undervalued assets, that people are too concerned with locking up their utility slot that they’re missing out on good bats on cheap prices. And, sure, if you get a DH-only with a low WAR projection and a double-digit fantasy projection for three or four dollars next year, you’ve baked in the risk and you’re paying the right price. Miguel Andújar (0.6 WAR projection) carries this risk.

But, even for position players, it’s probably worth letting your eyes wander over to the WAR projection — the worse it gets, the less likely the team is going to play him. The median number of actual plate appearances played on this list was a hair over 400.

 

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