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2ndCitySox

Jonathan Villar 2020 Outlook

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HR Park Factors (1.000 is neutral):

Camden Yards - 1.121

Marlins Park - 0.759

I hope Mattingly likes stealing bases!

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Well, the HR factor surely can't help, but what effect does playing in the NL East compared to the AL East have on his 2020 outlook?

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I guess Isan Diaz is now on the outside looking in for a roster spot.

My belief is that Villar will still be plenty valuable.  In that diamond, he can surely take advantage of his speed.  Not sure if Mattingly is a guy that usually gives his guys the green light.  Any Marlins fans know?  Given the O's lineup was rather terrible, I can't imagine he won't put up similar runs but the RBIs and HRs will decline, imo. but his other stats should remain relatively the same.  

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30 minutes ago, MSkibisky said:

Well, the HR factor surely can't help, but what effect does playing in the NL East compared to the AL East have on his 2020 outlook?

More chances to face Scherzer, Corbin, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Nola, Soroka, etc. The AL East is the best division to hit in and the NL East might be the worst.

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1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

More chances to face Scherzer, Corbin, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Nola, Soroka, etc. The AL East is the best division to hit in and the NL East might be the worst.

 

Well at least he'll have a lot more RBI and run scoring chances with the Marlins' potent offense.

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2 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

I guess Isan Diaz is now on the outside looking in for a roster spot.

My belief is that Villar will still be plenty valuable.  In that diamond, he can surely take advantage of his speed.  Not sure if Mattingly is a guy that usually gives his guys the green light.  Any Marlins fans know?  Given the O's lineup was rather terrible, I can't imagine he won't put up similar runs but the RBIs and HRs will decline, imo. but his other stats should remain relatively the same.  

 

Dee Gordon had 60 SB on 76 tries in 2017, and 30 SB on 37 tries in 2016 (played half the season). Both of those years he was managed by Mattingly. Maybe Villar doesn't have that type of speed but Mattingly was clearly comfortable running a ton with him.

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6 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Dee Gordon had 60 SB on 76 tries in 2017, and 30 SB on 37 tries in 2016 (played half the season). Both of those years he was managed by Mattingly. Maybe Villar doesn't have that type of speed but Mattingly was clearly comfortable running a ton with him.

Dee Gordon is also a one trick pony. If he couldn't run, he wouldn't be in the MLB. Villar has more weapons than just his speed. My guess is he will take 25-30 attempts. 

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1 hour ago, MSkibisky said:

Dee Gordon is also a one trick pony. If he couldn't run, he wouldn't be in the MLB. Villar has more weapons than just his speed. My guess is he will take 25-30 attempts. 

 

I'd be shocked if he attempted that few. He had 49 attempts last year, Mattingly is not known to not run, in fact the only examples where he had fast players he ran a lot. Not sure why you think he will have a decrease of about 50% in stolen bases. Jon Berti last year stole 17/20 in only 73 games. He's not a one trick pony. Even Miguel Rojas attempted 14 SB (9/14).

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3 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

More chances to face Scherzer, Corbin, DeGrom, Syndergaard, Nola, Soroka, etc. The AL East is the best division to hit in and the NL East might be the worst.

Good point.  However, IF Cole and/or Stras end up in the AL East, then while still not as strong as the NL East they do have some pretty good arms there too (Snell, Morton, Severino, Sale).

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10 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I'd be shocked if he attempted that few. He had 49 attempts last year, Mattingly is not known to not run, in fact the only examples where he had fast players he ran a lot. Not sure why you think he will have a decrease of about 50% in stolen bases. Jon Berti last year stole 17/20 in only 73 games. He's not a one trick pony. Even Miguel Rojas attempted 14 SB (9/14).

I'll be honest, I didn't look to see how many he attempted last year. I would not have guessed that he went 40/49.

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Per RW, it sounds like they will also try him in the Spring at 3B and OF.  If he could have position eligibility at 2B/SS/3B/OF (plus CI and MI if your league has those designations) that would be huge!

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Statistically, Villar was the best runner in baseball last year, with 10.5 base runs. Next closest were Mallex and Yelich with 8.5.

I’m not too worried about the steals, those will be there. It’s the power that’s really going to suffer in Miami.

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I can't speak for anyone else, but for me?  Villar isn't on my dynasty team for his power, so that's a non-factor in my eyes. As long as he stays atop that l/u, his runs/sb's should keep him fantasy relevant....

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34 minutes ago, FISH ON said:

I can't speak for anyone else, but for me?  Villar isn't on my dynasty team for his power, so that's a non-factor in my eyes. As long as he stays atop that l/u, his runs/sb's should keep him fantasy relevant....

Of course he'll still be fantasy relevant. He was a top 20 roto player this past season. His early NFBC ADP is 31. He's not going to lose all his value, but he likely does take a significant hit.

You can say he's not on your team for power, but his homers and RBIs still count. If he hits 10 less HRs and drives in 20 fewer runs, that affects your team the same as if your best power hitter hits 10 less HRs and drives in 20 fewer runs.

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This is indicative of what type of responses you can expect here at Rotoworld...

I mean, I did state that I'm not speaking for anyone else but for me, no? You do not know my roster construct, my league size nor the format...his hrs are a bonus, so him losing 10 hrs is not equal to my best power hitter hitting 10 less hrs, by saying that, you just compared Villar to my best power hitter...SMH.....

Not worth it....carry on...

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3 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Statistically, Villar was the best runner in baseball last year, with 10.5 base runs. Next closest were Mallex and Yelich with 8.5.

I’m not too worried about the steals, those will be there. It’s the power that’s really going to suffer in Miami.

 

The power may suffer but realistically how bad could it be. Maybe he loses 5-8 HR that he would've had? The Orioles didn't score runs so its not like he's going to a worse offense that will hurt his R or RBI based on last year.

 

3 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

Per RW, it sounds like they will also try him in the Spring at 3B and OF.  If he could have position eligibility at 2B/SS/3B/OF (plus CI and MI if your league has those designations) that would be huge!

 

This would be clutch. Assuming Aguilar gets full playing time, there are a lot of mediocre middle infield players that will get time to give Villar a chance to move around.

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24 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

The power may suffer but realistically how bad could it be. Maybe he loses 5-8 HR that he would've had? The Orioles didn't score runs so its not like he's going to a worse offense that will hurt his R or RBI based on last year.

The Orioles scored 114 more runs than the Marlins last year (729 to 615). The Marlins should close that gap some this year with their new acquisitions, but it's still a bad team, a bad park and ultimately a worse situation for Villar.

 

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1 hour ago, SpartyOn4 said:

The Orioles scored 114 more runs than the Marlins last year (729 to 615). The Marlins should close that gap some this year with their new acquisitions, but it's still a bad team, a bad park and ultimately a worse situation for Villar.

 

Aren't the Orioles also in full tank mode though?  I'm not sure until seeing what each lineup looks like heading into the season we will be in any position to comment on 2020 runs.  Arguably, Villar was one of the reasons they scored that many (more) runs!

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1 minute ago, BigPapi44 said:

Aren't the Orioles also in full tank mode though?  I'm not sure until seeing what each lineup looks like heading into the season we will be in any position to comment on 2020 runs.  Arguably, Villar was one of the reasons they scored that many (more) runs!

I agree, the Marlins may outscore the Orioles now, largely because they have Villar and Baltimore doesn't. It's still a downgrade for his fantasy situation though IMO.

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As a dynasty owner, I'm a bit relieved with Villar's landing spot. I'm less concerned with park factors and more concerned with playing time. Barring a total relapse on Villar's part, the Marlins offer a full time gig.

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11 hours ago, pan55 said:

As a dynasty owner, I'm a bit relieved with Villar's landing spot. I'm less concerned with park factors and more concerned with playing time. Barring a total relapse on Villar's part, the Marlins offer a full time gig.

 

I wouldn't celebrate yet, he will be a prime trade candidate at the deadline and could fall into partial time if traded.

 

14 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

The Orioles scored 114 more runs than the Marlins last year (729 to 615). The Marlins should close that gap some this year with their new acquisitions, but it's still a bad team, a bad park and ultimately a worse situation for Villar.

 

I did not realize there was that big of a difference. I do think Marlins should be a little better than last year (partly due to Villar) so hopefully that will improve, but hard to see them closing a 114 run gap in one year.

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"For the second straight year, Marlins Park will receive a makeover — this time to the benefit of hitters.

Playing in one of the least-friendly offensive venues in MLB, the Miami Marlins announced they’ll be moving in the fences for the start of next season. The dimensions in center field and right-center will be reduced by 12 feet, placing deep-center at 400 feet and right-center at 387."

 

Full article here - https://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-marlins/fl-sp-marlins-park-fences-20191204-74kljt46framdibhw7d2zlhope-story.html

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I don't trust him out of the AL East. We will see but not someone I will be actively looking at unless he comes at a decent price and i'm steals hunting. His numbers last year possibly have him being over drafted by many chasing those stats.

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Not trying to be too bench-forumish here, but for those of you that have him in a keeper or dynasty, what are you doing? Holding or selling?

I think holding might be best to see what he can do. I gotta think that the move to MIA would cut significantly into his current trade value 

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