Sign in to follow this  
2ndCitySox

Jonathan Villar 2020 Outlook

Recommended Posts

I see it as a lateral move.  You weren't counting on him for anything more than chip-in power anyway, and it's not like the Marlins are going to keep him from doing what he does best in the hopes of flipping him for prospects at the deadline.  Definite hold.  (I own no keeper/dynasty shares.)

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I don't trust him out of the AL East. We will see but not someone I will be actively looking at unless he comes at a decent price and i'm steals hunting. His numbers last year possibly have him being over drafted by many chasing those stats.

We saw this before with him re chasing steals.  He's great after pick 50 to account for his downside.  I'm completely out where he's out at pick 30ish esp when Mondesi is in the same area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Not trying to be too bench-forumish here, but for those of you that have him in a keeper or dynasty, what are you doing? Holding or selling?

I think holding might be best to see what he can do. I gotta think that the move to MIA would cut significantly into his current trade value 

Yeah, you really have no choice but to hold in dynasty IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, 2ndCitySox said:

Not trying to be too bench-forumish here, but for those of you that have him in a keeper or dynasty, what are you doing? Holding or selling?

I think holding might be best to see what he can do. I gotta think that the move to MIA would cut significantly into his current trade value 

In general, trading steals guys in dynasty is more about finding the right fit IMO.

If a contender in your league has a need for SB and an MI opening, the move to Miami probably won't deter them from paying a good price for Villar. But teams that feel like they're already balanced or rebuilding teams aren't going to trade for him unless they think they're clearly winning the deal, and they may value him a little less now.

I'd say sell if you can find that obvious trade match, otherwise hold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He went from a band box to a park that is difficult to hit home runs in.  Not to mention the number of ace like pitchers in the division.

He is going to be overvalued.

Edited by B&F
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, B&F said:

He went from a band box to a park that is difficult to hit home runs in.  Not to mention the number of ace like pitchers in the division.

He is going to be overvalued.

Meh.  Sure more homers, but a better average on the road by quite a margin, so not sure the home park was 'that' favourable overall.  Also, no homers in Yankee Stadium or Fenway. The Marlins just moved in their fences, which is not insignificant.  Also, Cole just got added to the AL East, but I agree there's still probably more talented pitching in the NL East.  Overall, maybe a slight downgrade but I see it more or less as a wash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

He's really not. That team is terrible and Villar will play everywhere. So even if the OF doesn't work out for him they'll find a way to get his bat in the lineup. And he's always been an accumulator. If he gets 600+ ABs he's going to be a 25 / 35 guy. He might not be the sexy pick, but he's a much safer pick than Mondesi. 

Don't want to derail this too much but (looking at projections avg) Mondesi has much more steal upside and similar power and ATC and Depth Charts have those numbers in about 100 so plus less PAs so clearly with health (of course that's the risk) good chance the power floor should be around 15 with upside for more.  

Where is Villar going to play back in the IF?  It's not going to be 2nd unless Diaz bombs and it definitely won't be short with how good Rojas is there.  Sure you can move Anderson to OF some but 3B is another position he sucks at and that doesn't factor in Berti competition since so many OF options already plus Harrison.  Mondesi has zero lineup concerns.  Villar's been tossed away by two teams now.  Also interesting that projections have him needing an extra 130+ ABs to even get to those same crappy 2018 numbers.   

Edited by tonycpsu
Moved from Mondesi thread

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Magoo said:

Don't want to derail this too much but (looking at projections avg) Mondesi has much more steal upside and similar power and ATC and Depth Charts have those numbers in about 100 so plus less PAs so clearly with health (of course that's the risk) good chance the power floor should be around 15 with upside for more.  

Where is Villar going to play back in the IF?  It's not going to be 2nd unless Diaz bombs and it definitely won't be short with how good Rojas is there.  Sure you can move Anderson to OF some but 3B is another position he sucks at and that doesn't factor in Berti competition since so many OF options already plus Harrison.  Mondesi has zero lineup concerns.  Villar's been tossed away by two teams now.  Also interesting that projections have him needing an extra 130+ ABs to even get to those same crappy 2018 numbers.   

 

They acquired him for his versatility and have said he's going to play everywhere. And according to the depth chart on marlins.com he's their starting third baseman. I think you're really overstating his lineup concerns. The Marlins wouldn't have traded for him if they didn't intend to play him. And projections are just educated guesses. I'm pretty confident that if Villar gets 600 ABs he can be a 25 / 40 guy. Can Mondesi steal more bases? Sure, but he also might hit 15 less HRs. We just don't know...

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

They acquired him for his versatility and have said he's going to play everywhere. And according to the depth chart on marlins.com he's their starting third baseman. I think you're really overstating his lineup concerns. The Marlins wouldn't have traded for him if they didn't intend to play him. And projections are just educated guesses. I'm pretty confident that if Villar gets 600 ABs he can be a 25 / 40 guy. Can Mondesi steal more bases? Sure, but he also might hit 15 less HRs. We just don't know...

 

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Magoo said:

Where is Villar going to play back in the IF?  It's not going to be 2nd unless Diaz bombs and it definitely won't be short with how good Rojas is there.  Sure you can move Anderson to OF some but 3B is another position he sucks at and that doesn't factor in Berti competition since so many OF options already plus Harrison.  Mondesi has zero lineup concerns.  Villar's been tossed away by two teams now.  Also interesting that projections have him needing an extra 130+ ABs to even get to those same crappy 2018 numbers.   

Villar produced 4 WAR last year. He was "tossed away" by the Orioles because they're tanking and didn't want to pay him.

He has his flaws, but the competition in Miami has way, way more of them. Diaz and Brinson have to improve a lot just to get to replacement level. Harrison had a wRC+ of 97 at AAA. Berti's line last year looks pretty fluky based on his extensive MiLB record. Rojas has a nice glove, but at 31 that could start decline and he has zero power.

Miami is still an awful offensive team and Villar is arguably their best position player now. He's going to play somewhere.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
53 minutes ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Villar produced 4 WAR last year. He was "tossed away" by the Orioles because they're tanking and didn't want to pay him.

He has his flaws, but the competition in Miami has way, way more of them. Diaz and Brinson have to improve a lot just to get to replacement level. Harrison had a wRC+ of 97 at AAA. Berti's line last year looks pretty fluky based on his extensive MiLB record. Rojas has a nice glove, but at 31 that could start decline and he has zero power.

Miami is still an awful offensive team and Villar is arguably their best position player now. He's going to play somewhere.

I agree that there a lots of reasons to play every day and that he won’t get a quick hook. But his value is tied to maxing ABs and there are more avenues to him losing PT than the other rabbits. It looks like they will try to give him CF based on speed. That was a disaster with Dee Gordon and they wouldn’t be doing that if they thought he was okay at some place in the IF. 
 

The fact that there are more OF options (including Cooper as a possible RF) than IF yet they still will start him at CF is unbelievably telling about wanting to keep him away from IF. Yes Sierra and Brinson also explain but you’ve got Berti and Ramirez still and Harrison coming. CF could get crowded fast.

Edited by Magoo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Could, but right now it doesn't appear Harrison and Brinson are anywhere near towards becoming viable hitters. Maybe you are more optimistic towards growth? Did you hear of any major swing changes for them/info that I haven't heard? Marlins are just full of a bunch of what shaky if's. So that doesn't worry me a ton as an established good LU would. Or a young LU with a lot of high upside hitters like the Blue Jays.

 

I'm not touching Mondesi or Villar at their ADP this year anyway. So this debate is whatever to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Could, but right now it doesn't appear Harrison and Brinson are anywhere near towards becoming viable hitters. Maybe you are more optimistic towards growth? Did you hear of any major swing changes for them/info that I haven't heard? Marlins are just full of a bunch of what shaky if's. So that doesn't worry me a ton as an established good LU would. Or a young LU with a lot of high upside hitters like the Blue Jays.

 

I'm not touching Mondesi or Villar at their ADP this year anyway. So this debate is whatever to me.

What about the revenge of Kemp? (KIDDING)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/4/2019 at 11:02 AM, Low and Away said:

Aren't the Marlins moving the fences in this year?

Yes. They are.  That should mitigate some of the potential damage.

 

not that it really matters, I don’t think anyone expects/ever expected villar to contribute in power.  If he WAS a 25/45 guy, he’d probably be a round 2 guy. Especially at 2b.  He’s not even being drafted close to that. I personally love the Miami scare.  He has the (unlikely) ceiling of a rd.1 player but i feel he’s getting drafted for his floor, which is pretty damn good.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Super value pick this year for around 20 auction bucks.. one of the few guys with unlimited upside for sbs that doesn’t kill you in other categories.

love how he stole 4 bases in roughly 30 PAs in spring which doesn’t count.  Seems the Marlins will let him run wild.

i don’t quite get how Trea Turner is worth double his price. Sure TT is younger and on a better team.  But a team that did lose a huge player in Rendon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So he's sitting opening day? His back is that bad?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Boo. 😡

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, Yahoo has everything screwed up tonight. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, swfcdan said:

Safe to start in weeklys? 

Not at all. They haven't even put those with Covid-19 on the IL yet. He may very well be one of those players.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone have high expectations for Villar? I scooped him up when someone dropped him when the original Marlins infestation news broke. I'm not really pumped on him and thinking about dropping. Here's why:

1) Super long layoff time, could be extra rusty

2) No guarantee he plays like he did last year, he could be the 2017-18 version of himself (which sucked)

3) Marlins stink and are basically a glorified minor league squad at this point, his overall #s will probably suffer

Can anyone say some positives to get me excited about him?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Ecofolux said:

Does anyone have high expectations for Villar? I scooped him up when someone dropped him when the original Marlins infestation news broke. I'm not really pumped on him and thinking about dropping. Here's why:

1) Super long layoff time, could be extra rusty

2) No guarantee he plays like he did last year, he could be the 2017-18 version of himself (which sucked)

3) Marlins stink and are basically a glorified minor league squad at this point, his overall #s will probably suffer

Can anyone say some positives to get me excited about him?

 

I don't have high expectations, but I'm holding and I will absolutely play him if he's in there.

1) If he's healthy he should be fine. A tune-up against Baltimore is just what the doctor ordered. Not like he was doing any good in the first few games anywyas

2) No, there's not, but he's still a pretty good MLB player and a guy that they need in there at the top to have any semblance of scoring runs. Opportunity + Talent here is still good enough

3) I think this is overblown. It's absolutely true, but I'm not going to worry about this except for against top pitching. AAA guys with a lot to prove are still going to be decent enough against decent MLB pitching in a short sample size.

I need steals. You probably need them too...and I'd expect the Marlins will be trying to manufacture runs any way possible. He's still a decent avg/ops guy with the chance for a few homers, but the stealing ability makes him a must hold and must start, at least until there's at least a week of him playing and not producing, imo.

That's my optimistic take. Honestly, I just hope he's not on the CV19 list...

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.