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BigPapi44

Tommy Pham 2020 Outlook

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Per RW, Pham has been dealt from the Rays to Padres.

Not sure if this is a positive or negative.  Perhaps the Padres run more than the Rays and there is a better supporting cast around him. What do you guys think?

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15 minutes ago, BigPapi44 said:

Per RW, Pham has been dealt from the Rays to Padres.

Not sure if this is a positive or negative.  Perhaps the Padres run more than the Rays and there is a better supporting cast around him. What do you guys think?

 

I think it's a positive. I don't think the stadium change will be that big of a deal because it's not like Tropicana is a bastion of HRs. In fact, I think Tropicana and Petco are pretty close in terms of HRs, right? And now you're putting Pham in a lineup that will surround him with better player, offering more opportunities for R/RBI. I honestly see the opportunity for Pham be a more valuable fantasy OF in SD than he was in 2019. Good BA, ~20 SBs, chance for more than 145 R-RBI, and I still think he hits about 20 HRs. 

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5 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I think it's a positive. I don't think the stadium change will be that big of a deal because it's not like Tropicana is a bastion of HRs. In fact, I think Tropicana and Petco are pretty close in terms of HRs, right? And now you're putting Pham in a lineup that will surround him with better player, offering more opportunities for R/RBI. I honestly see the opportunity for Pham be a more valuable fantasy OF in SD than he was in 2019. Good BA, ~20 SBs, chance for more than 145 R-RBI, and I still think he hits about 20 HRs. 

Rays moved him around a bit in the lineup, all things being equal with the Pads present lineup as being the one that opens the 2020 season, where do you think he will bat in the order?

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I think its a slight negative. I think hitting in an AL lineup seems better and I'd say the home parks are similar enough but the opposing parks in the AL east seem tastier.  I'm not sure which team is more likely to let him run more, that seems like it could swing most of the value due to scarcity of steals. 

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20 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

I think it's a positive. I don't think the stadium change will be that big of a deal because it's not like Tropicana is a bastion of HRs. In fact, I think Tropicana and Petco are pretty close in terms of HRs, right? And now you're putting Pham in a lineup that will surround him with better player, offering more opportunities for R/RBI. I honestly see the opportunity for Pham be a more valuable fantasy OF in SD than he was in 2019. Good BA, ~20 SBs, chance for more than 145 R-RBI, and I still think he hits about 20 HRs. 

 

Tropicana was 19th in HR park factor last year, Petco was 22nd, so slight negative.

The Rays scored 87 more runs than the Padres and stole 24 more bases than the Padres.

Overall it looks like a negative to me.

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Yea not the greatest spot for him.  At least he should (probably) continue to run.  That’s what you want him for 

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1 hour ago, kenag122002 said:

Tropicana was 19th in HR park factor last year, Petco was 22nd, so slight negative.

The Rays scored 87 more runs than the Padres and stole 24 more bases than the Padres.

Overall it looks like a negative to me.

Definitely a negative given the other 4 parks in the AL East are built for hitters.

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I have to think it's a slight downgrade as well.  Despite park factors not being that much different, San Diego seems to take a chunk out of most bats that end up there.  Also keep in mind Pham bats right, and left field corner is only 315 feet at Tropicana, and 334 feet at Petco.  An extra 20 feet to clear the fence down the line is a big difference, especially for a hitter like Pham who doesn't put much loft on the ball.  

Obviously Camden / Orioles park is a much better hitters park, but Machado took a big hit going to SD from the AL East parks.  

And aside from the team change, you have a speed-dependent player on the wrong side of the 30.  Usually the burners decline much earlier and more steeply than other types of hitters.  I'd be weary of Pham this year, but I'd still definitely own him at the right price.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

I have to think it's a slight downgrade as well.  Despite park factors not being that much different, San Diego seems to take a chunk out of most bats that end up there.  Also keep in mind Pham bats right, and left field corner is only 315 feet at Tropicana, and 334 feet at Petco.  An extra 20 feet to clear the fence down the line is a big difference, especially for a hitter like Pham who doesn't put much loft on the ball.  

Obviously Camden / Orioles park is a much better hitters park, but Machado took a big hit going to SD from the AL East parks.  

And aside from the team change, you have a speed-dependent player on the wrong side of the 30.  Usually the burners decline much earlier and more steeply than other types of hitters.  I'd be weary of Pham this year, but I'd still definitely own him at the right price.

Whats the right price? What kind of return would you be looking for in a trade? What OF would you rank around him now that he is in SD? 

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Phan will likely get slightly less playing time in SD. His days off will be on the bench instead of at DH (21 games started last year at DH)

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6 hours ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

Whats the right price? What kind of return would you be looking for in a trade? What OF would you rank around him now that he is in SD? 

 

That's a bit of a tough question to answer because league types and settings can have a pretty big value swing on players.  In something like a 5x5 his value probably changes less because the new team likely doesn't affect his SB numbers much.  Points leagues really depends on how the scoring is set up.

I've been seeing him ranked around OF25 to the low 30's so far this off-season, and personally I think the rankings from about OF30 through OF45ish really comes down to preference.  The trade doesn't kill Pham's value for me, but it hurts it enough that I'd probably look at other options in that range in a draft.

He's hit 21 HR's the past two seasons, but in SD I feel like 15-17 HR is a safer projection.  He stole 25 bases last year and 15 the year before, and I'd probably tend to think he's closer to the lower-middle between those two numbers in 2020, if for no other reason than he's not getting any younger.  So if you project 17 HR and 17 SB, along with a very good OBP, then you can figure out where you'd rank that in your scoring system.

 

4 hours ago, pan55 said:

Phan will likely get slightly less playing time in SD. His days off will be on the bench instead of at DH (21 games started last year at DH)

 

That's a good point as well.  Wrong side of 30, no DH spot to rest or nurse minor injuries from.  Unless SD makes more deals, they still have a pretty crowded corner OF with Pham, Grisham, Myers, Naylor, etc.  It will be a lot easier for the Padres to find excuses to give him days off.

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Im a guy who is betting on this ball to get a little unjuiced soon.  Between this trade and all its slight negatives that are listed above, and the ball possibly changing im fading pretty hard here.  

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19 hours ago, pan55 said:

Phan will likely get slightly less playing time in SD. His days off will be on the bench instead of at DH (21 games started last year at DH)

 

This is a good point and definitely something to watch. Pham has been prone to the minor nagging injuries the last few years.

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2 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

Im a guy who is betting on this ball to get a little unjuiced soon.  Between this trade and all its slight negatives that are listed above, and the ball possibly changing im fading pretty hard here.  

I think they will start de-juicing the ball this season too but it won't return entirely to pre-juiced levels either.  It's been juiced to various degrees for two and a half years now.  But last year the ball totally jumped the shark.  MLB knows now it screwed up going way too far and making last season one big damn asterisk.  But it won't be back to "normal" either.  Which makes it a pain for us fantasy managers trying to guess at performances going into this season. 

But regards Pham he will be 32 before the season starts so I'd stay away from him for just that reason alone add in the trade to SD and I wouldn't bother with him at all.

Edited by The Big Bat Theory

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On 12/6/2019 at 10:35 AM, brockpapersizer said:

I think its a slight negative. I think hitting in an AL lineup seems better and I'd say the home parks are similar enough but the opposing parks in the AL east seem tastier.  I'm not sure which team is more likely to let him run more, that seems like it could swing most of the value due to scarcity of steals. 

I would agree, give me Rogers Center, Yankee, Fenway and Camden vs ATT/oracle, Dodger, Chase and Coors.   Although whats kind of interesting is that he has more career HR as a guest at Petco (3) than he does at Yankee and Fenway combined (0)

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51 minutes ago, parrothead said:

I would agree, give me Rogers Center, Yankee, Fenway and Camden vs ATT/oracle, Dodger, Chase and Coors.   Although whats kind of interesting is that he has more career HR as a guest at Petco (3) than he does at Yankee and Fenway combined (0)

Part of the argument in favour of the move is that, outside of LA, that division's pitching is not very good or at least is comparable.  The Padres, arguably, have the best staff after the Dodgers, so looking at the Rockies, Giants (sans Bumgarner) and DBacks is not overly intimidating. 

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I dont think the move should be analyzed too much. He's basically the same guy. I also disagree that he should be avoided in a redraft league because he's 32.  Seems foolish, especially since his age gives you a good discount. If you're taking a worse player whose completely unproven but super young or just a worse player in his mid 20s, I don't think that's helping you. Tommy Pham isn't super elite, but he is a very good fantasy asset.

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17 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

I dont think the move should be analyzed too much. He's basically the same guy. I also disagree that he should be avoided in a redraft league because he's 32.  Seems foolish, especially since his age gives you a good discount. If you're taking a worse player whose completely unproven but super young or just a worse player in his mid 20s, I don't think that's helping you. Tommy Pham isn't super elite, but he is a very good fantasy asset.

 

I see no reason he can't be 20-20 again this year...that is really valuable in a roto league.  I think Pham is an underrated fantasy asset.

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don't see how it's a negative to go to a lineup with probably more R and RBI opportunities. Hearing some chatter about his elbow though, only thing to look out for. Was injured late last year and healing now.

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Hitting between Tatis and Machado puts him in the best situation he’s ever been in. He also gets 18 games in coors and az 

i think it’s a neutral shift

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5 hours ago, Golden Spikes said:

Hitting between Tatis and Machado puts him in the best situation he’s ever been in. He also gets 18 games in coors and az 

i think it’s a neutral shift

My only worry is will he play as much: 21 starts at DH...He can't get those in the NL

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26 minutes ago, hockeyfan77 said:

My only worry is will he play as much: 21 starts at DH...He can't get those in the NL

True but he could get 8 or so and get more games played as pinch hitting double switches albeit with less at bats. I’ve shifted to a weekly league but I can see the concern for dailies

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DH isn’t a real concern, he’s a fine defensive OF, not the best, but not gonna get sent to the bench for his fielding. The DH stuff was more related to his elbow injury I think.

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2 hours ago, fawkes_mulder said:

DH isn’t a real concern, he’s a fine defensive OF, not the best, but not gonna get sent to the bench for his fielding. The DH stuff was more related to his elbow injury I think.

No doubt he is a fine OF, but he isn't getting any younger and he tends to get nicked up more than the average player....

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