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BigPapi44

Tommy Pham 2020 Outlook

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On 12/11/2019 at 3:47 AM, hockeyfan77 said:

No doubt he is a fine OF, but he isn't getting any younger and he tends to get nicked up more than the average player....

Having been a Pham owner the past few years, I agree with this.  I've found the same with Starling Marte.  That said, if you can get 135-145 games out of Pham his stats more then make up for it.  It's more a concern in 'weekly' lineups then daily where you can sub him out, imo.  That SD lineup is looking pretty good right now, with a full season of Tatis Jr., Machado more comfortable in the NL and Hosmer's OBP, I think Pham can put up just as good numbers (and possibly even better counting stats).

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On 12/11/2019 at 12:47 AM, hockeyfan77 said:

No doubt he is a fine OF, but he isn't getting any younger and he tends to get nicked up more than the average player....

 

This can be true and he can still be a value at his ADP, particularly in 5 OF leagues.  

 

Nobody is getting any younger (last I  checked), but 25-30 threat with a solid average hitting in a good part of a lineup probably goes in round 2 of a draft if he's 24 years old, maybe round 3.   He's currently going in round 7 per NFBC ADP and assuming a 12 team league. So, while I agree he has some age and injury downside, you're still paying a discounted rate.

 

Pham has averaged 20-20 over the last 3 years. Not sure how many people that applies to, but I'm guessing not a ton. 

 

Anyway bottom line, I like the player and I like the value. 

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

This can be true and he can still be a value at his ADP, particularly in 5 OF leagues.  

 

Nobody is getting any younger (last I  checked), but 25-30 threat with a solid average hitting in a good part of a lineup probably goes in round 2 of a draft if he's 24 years old, maybe round 3.   He's currently going in round 7 per NFBC ADP and assuming a 12 team league. So, while I agree he has some age and injury downside, you're still paying a discounted rate.

 

Pham has averaged 20-20 over the last 3 years. Not sure how many people that applies to, but I'm guessing not a ton. 

 

Anyway bottom line, I like the player and I like the value. 

Agreed, my real concern was that I play in a keeper league where you keep 5 hitters and 5 pitchers....The trade really put a cramp in my decision keep him....

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I’m just curious. Has there ever been a player who got traded to the Padres or signed as a FA within  say the last 10 years.. who went on to have better offensive numbers?

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33 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

I’m just curious. Has there ever been a player who got traded to the Padres or signed as a FA within  say the last 10 years.. who went on to have better offensive numbers?

 

Well the ballpark has played a lot better for hitters only in recent years so not the fairest question. Wil Myers is one and he came from TB coincidental enough.

 

Point is he doesnt need to be better and he's a value where he's drafted.  He was a value last year too and it looks like his ADP has moved down.

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12 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Well the ballpark has played a lot better for hitters only in recent years so not the fairest question. Wil Myers is one and he came from TB coincidental enough.

 

Point is he doesnt need to be better and he's a value where he's drafted.  He was a value last year too and it looks like his ADP has moved down.

 

Has the ballpark improved? A quick glance shows that Petco finished near last for offense park factors.

Wil Myers is not a fair comparison because he was basically hurt all year before he came over.

Look at Eric Homser, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp Justin Upton.  I'm pretty sure the list goes on.  There may be an exception or 2.  But the evidence is pretty overwhelming.

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9 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Has the ballpark improved? A quick glance shows that Petco finished near last for offense park factors.

Wil Myers is not a fair comparison because he was basically hurt all year before he came over.

Look at Eric Homser, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp Justin Upton.  I'm pretty sure the list goes on.  There may be an exception or 2.  But the evidence is pretty overwhelming.

Disagree and those examples can be distinguished especially a way past his prime Kemp.  Those players saw a down-tick in power and some were pre-moving the fences in I think  Pham has been borderline elite fantasy-wise since he came into the league and provides significantly more SB which shouldn't be affected by Petco. He's also produced power in two relatively neutral parks (which Petco essentially is now)  It's a lateral move imo.

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10 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

 

Has the ballpark improved? A quick glance shows that Petco finished near last for offense park factors.

Wil Myers is not a fair comparison because he was basically hurt all year before he came over.

Look at Eric Homser, Manny Machado, Matt Kemp Justin Upton.  I'm pretty sure the list goes on.  There may be an exception or 2.  But the evidence is pretty overwhelming.

 

You asked for one player that was better in SD and I gave you an example. Will Meyers was really good for a couple years in fantasy after being traded to SD.  I guess you weren't sincere when you were asking, you just wanted to push your narrative. Listing 4 other players is still a small sample and not remotely  overwhelming as well as ignoring other factors.

 

You don't have to draft Pham if you don't want to, he's not a lock to be a stud. He's going after round 7 or later in 12 team leagues. Guys at this point of the draft are by no means locks. But in 5 OF leagues I think OF gets shallow quick and currently where Pham is being drafted he's a good value. 

I also think Machado will have a very good bounce back this year and is a good value where he is going too.

If Tommy Pham was going higher than he did last year, I'd be more bearish on him but he's not. A good fantasy asset like Pham has value at some point and it's dumb to just ignore guys because they got traded to the Padres without ADP as context.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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Just looked at Upton's numbers too, he stole 19 bags in his year in SD (over double what he did in ATL in each of the previous years). His two years in ATL prior were basically on the same level as his one SD year fantasy wise, and he got even worse when he went to DET the year after SD. I'm not sure he's a good example of someone who did so much worse when he went to SD. His 2015 season in SD >>>> than his 2013 season in ATL, but his 2014 season in ATL may be slightly better than his his 2015 season, mostly because of RBIS/Runs, which a lot had to do with SD having a horrible lineup IMO.

If you have someone going from a great hitters park to Petco, sure it's a downgrade. No different than going to a  handful of places, and SD has played a lot closer to neutral than it did hen it was a pitcher's haven for a number of years.

 

 

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On 12/15/2019 at 12:08 PM, brockpapersizer said:

DVLocq5.png

 

The one thing missing from that graphic is Pham's terrible launch angle. Averaged 5.1 degrees on balls in play last year, compared to a league average over 11. GB rate over 50%. Pham hits the ball hard, but hard right at the ground. Which puts a much bigger emphasis on his sprint speed to get on base than a lot of hitters. 

I don't necessarily think he turns into a pumpkin in 2020, but that reliance on speed will make his decline steep when it happens. A good comparable is Lorenzo Cain in terms of batted ball and player profile. Hits the ball in the upper percentiles for hard hit rate, high end sprint speed, but LA around 5 degrees and high GB rate. Already last year at age 33 we saw a pretty steep decline. Slowed down just a bit, and went from 30 SB to 18 SB, and being a .300 hitter to .260. The difference between fantasy useful and being a fantasy bench player. 

And although park factors aren't hugely different overall, I think Petco is much worse for RH hitters. Left field corner is 19 feet deeper, so chip shots down the line turn into outs. Plus leaving the AL East, where every visiting park is a hitters park. 

I do agree though he's a buy at the right price in redraft. But I'm definitely not reaching for him, and in dynasty I think the sell high window is open now. 

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There's really no narrative.  I like Tommy Pham.  I like players that take their walks.  Especially ones that steal bases and provide some kind of floor.

However, I think it's crazy to not expect some kind of decline in Petco.  

They moved the fences in, back in 2013.  If you look at the figures, Petco still finished near the bottom in park factors.  There were a few exceptional years where it placed slightly above league average.  The most recent year should be given the greatest weighting and it was lousy last year.

 

 

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On 12/17/2019 at 9:37 AM, KingJoffrey said:

There's really no narrative.  I like Tommy Pham.  I like players that take their walks.  Especially ones that steal bases and provide some kind of floor.

However, I think it's crazy to not expect some kind of decline in Petco.  

They moved the fences in, back in 2013.  If you look at the figures, Petco still finished near the bottom in park factors.  There were a few exceptional years where it placed slightly above league average.  The most recent year should be given the greatest weighting and it was lousy last year.

 

 

 

the lineup was also ATROCIOUS last year, that doesn't help the stats at all.

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On 12/19/2019 at 3:46 PM, axiom20XX said:

 

the lineup was also ATROCIOUS last year, that doesn't help the stats at all.

 

San Diego Away OPS was around .740, home .680 something.  That's huge.   The lineup is not terrible when FTJ is in it.  But the park still is overall terrible and Pham's ADP needs to adjust.  Sorry I love to bust up the status quo but a Pham downgrade is merited.

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The thing about Pham is, your not drafting him for his Hrs. In today's league everyone hits 20 hrs so finding the long ball for your team hasn't been as tough as years past. If you take Pham it's because you believe he can still steal 20+ bags and has the potential to have solid counting stats squished somewhere in with tatis machado and Hosmer. You have to believe a partially torn UCL had to hinder him in the batting box too. A fully healthy Pham I think returns solid value, even if he only host 17-20 hr. 

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