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Franmil Reyes 2020 Outlook

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On ‎1‎/‎23‎/‎2020 at 9:16 PM, BigPapi44 said:

I hope he gets 500+ABs this year.  IF so, I think he has a chance to lead the AL in home runs.

See mine from January.  He's giving every reason to believe this. 

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Spring training really hard to judge.  Lewis Brinson always looks like a power monster in the spring, and then last year he doesn't hit a single home-run during the regular season.

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10 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

Spring training really hard to judge.  Lewis Brinson always looks like a power monster in the spring, and then last year he doesn't hit a single home-run during the regular season.

That's fair, but at least with Reyes he has had big league success not just in ST.  The bigger issue is the average, if he hits .260+ he's a top 25 player, if he hits .230-.240, he drops significantly.

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On 1/25/2020 at 10:37 AM, Dislimb said:

With power becoming easier and easier to find, bad AVG and/or zero speed guys like this have almost no appeal to me anymore.

I know this is from a while back, but wanted to address. Anyone in roto, check your standings from last season. In mine, you needed to get 27 HR from EACH SPOT ON OFFENSE (14 starters) just to get 3rd place in HR. I’m betting all will find similar. 
It is likely you’re not going to get that from your C, maybe 2B...whatever. Meaning you NEED guys like this just to compete in the category. 
Just something to consider as you weigh pre-draft needs.

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Flashbacks to Franco’s 2016 (?) Spring Training.

 

Do not buy based on ST, guys. 

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1 hour ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Flashbacks to Franco’s 2016 (?) Spring Training.

 

Do not buy based on ST, guys. 

Franmil hit 37 homers as part of a major league baseball team last season. He was 23 years old and spent half the year in Petco Park.

 

This hype isnt just about his 2020 spring training, guys. 

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13 minutes ago, davidgoretiz said:

Franmil hit 37 homers as part of a major league baseball team last season. He was 23 years old and spent half the year in Petco Park.

 

This hype isnt just about his 2020 spring training, guys. 



That’s fair! What I said, simply, was: don’t buy based on ST. 
 

To your point, he’s young, he’s striking out less so far in ST, he’s eating and training better. All good things.
 

I hope he improves this year. I’m willing to roster him at the right price.

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He actually projected to hit for a very strong average when he came up. I owned him last year. His biggest fault was in high leverage situations. If it was a bases loaded or high pressure situation, he would strike out. Guaranteed. Like a big Labrador at the plate. If he was first up, zero issues. Felt like it was all solo HRs last year.

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8 hours ago, Meisce said:

He actually projected to hit for a very strong average when he came up. I owned him last year. His biggest fault was in high leverage situations. If it was a bases loaded or high pressure situation, he would strike out. Guaranteed. Like a big Labrador at the plate. If he was first up, zero issues. Felt like it was all solo HRs last year.

It was. I named him Fran-Solo. 

Probably just a statistical anomaly. But heres to some multiple run shots (assuming I get to draft him!)

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12 hours ago, Meisce said:

He actually projected to hit for a very strong average when he came up. I owned him last year. His biggest fault was in high leverage situations. If it was a bases loaded or high pressure situation, he would strike out. Guaranteed. Like a big Labrador at the plate. If he was first up, zero issues. Felt like it was all solo HRs last year.

 

His RBI numbers were definitely low for his production. That being said, that could be fluky in individual seasons, I wouldn't label him non-clutch yet.

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Much more valuable in 5x5 than points, but his RBI should be through the roof with Ramirez batting in front of him. 

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21 hours ago, davidgoretiz said:

Franmil hit 37 homers as part of a major league baseball team last season. He was 23 years old and spent half the year in Petco Park.

 

This hype isnt just about his 2020 spring training, guys. 

He also doesn’t help in SB’s or BA, is way overpriced and hit .237/.304/.468 for Cleveland last season. He actually hit better in Petco. He’s also terrible at drawing walks. Not that much to like here, you can get cheaper power in auctions and get much better deals with later picks.

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19 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Not that much to like here

 

Streamer has him projected for a .260 BA and a league average BB% of 9.

Combined with elite-elite raw power, AL for a full season opposed to Petco, proven 37 HR production, gets to bat behind Lindor/Mercado/Santana(.360+ OBP)/Ramirez (.360+OBP), changed approach has resulted in an improved end of 2019 and Spring Training, wont be limited to UTIL eligibility, still young at 24 maybe we havent seen his best season yet and he has colorful dreadlocks.

 

I like that

 

I dont like his Ks which does mean he is prone to streaks and the downside associated with that type of hitters profile. But youre either in a really shallow league or youre going to sell me on a power sleeper that will struggle with playing time and even the same exact lack of SBs that you mentioned. How many guys in the league hit 40 homers and steal bases anyways? Yes, custom league settings make some stat lines more valuable than others but in a MLB where no one steals its a bit strange to single him out for the lack of speed. Reyes seems like a pretty safe bet to provide great HR and RBI production all year and owners are hoping he has a league average BA. 

 

What if 2018 was his breakout year?

 

In 2018 he hit .324 in AAA with 16 homers, and then pushed to the majors where he finished with 16 more HRs while hitting .280. And youre going to single out 50 games in CLE where he batted .237? I made an earlier post about how Franmil struggled with the trade and switching teams. But after making an adjustment with Carlos Santana he finished the season on a .270 hitting clip. 

 

People are hoping that adjustment sticks and that he can even add to a pretty impressive stat line from 2019. He was still very unknown and unproven last year in drafts and finishing with 37 homers actually got him close to finishing top 150 in value for my league. 

 

spacer.png

 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, davidgoretiz said:

 

Streamer has him projected for a .260 BA and a league average BB% of 9.

Combined with elite-elite raw power, AL for a full season opposed to Petco, proven 37 HR production, gets to bat behind Lindor/Mercado/Santana(.360+ OBP)/Ramirez (.360+OBP), changed approach has resulted in an improved end of 2019 and Spring Training, wont be limited to UTIL eligibility, still young at 24 maybe we havent seen his best season yet and he has colorful dreadlocks.

 

I like that

 

I dont like his Ks which does mean he is prone to streaks and the downside associated with that type of hitters profile. But youre either in a really shallow league or youre going to sell me on a power sleeper that will struggle with playing time and even the same exact lack of SBs that you mentioned. How many guys in the league hit 40 homers and steal bases anyways? Yes, custom league settings make some stat lines more valuable than others but in a MLB where no one steals its a bit strange to single him out for the lack of speed. Reyes seems like a pretty safe bet to provide great HR and RBI production all year and owners are hoping he has a league average BA. 

 

What if 2018 was his breakout year?

 

In 2018 he hit .324 in AAA with 16 homers, and then pushed to the majors where he finished with 16 more HRs while hitting .280. And youre going to single out 50 games in CLE where he batted .237? I made an earlier post about how Franmil struggled with the trade and switching teams. But after making an adjustment with Carlos Santana he finished the season on a .270 hitting clip. 

 

People are hoping that adjustment sticks and that he can even add to a pretty impressive stat line from 2019. He was still very unknown and unproven last year in drafts and finishing with 37 homers actually got him close to finishing top 150 in value for my league. 

 

spacer.png

 

 

ST stats are notoriously silly to care about. Lewis Brinson typically has good ST stats for example. 

Will he steal bases? Nope. Can he hit a lot of homers? Sure, but with a juiced ball so can a lot of players. His stats in Cleveland do matter and they’re bad. He’s still not walking and he’s still pretty one dimensional.

 

Streamer has him hitting .260 with 37 HR 81 RBI 67 R 0 SB. I think they’re spot on here. Can he do better? Sure, but this is a realistic expectation and there are simply better options going cheaper than him. He’s just a bad value at his current ADP. Going below him are Khris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Upton and Miguel Sano for example. I’m talking about standard redraft leagues by the way. In a dynasty, he has a bit more value but what happens if the ball is unjuiced? 

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

ST stats are notoriously silly to care about. Lewis Brinson typically has good ST stats for example. 

Will he steal bases? Nope. Can he hit a lot of homers? Sure, but with a juiced ball so can a lot of players. His stats in Cleveland do matter and they’re bad. He’s still not walking and he’s still pretty one dimensional.

 

Streamer has him hitting .260 with 37 HR 81 RBI 67 R 0 SB. I think they’re spot on here. Can he do better? Sure, but this is a realistic expectation and there are simply better options going cheaper than him. He’s just a bad value at his current ADP. Going below him are Khris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, Justin Upton and Miguel Sano for example. I’m talking about standard redraft leagues by the way. In a dynasty, he has a bit more value but what happens if the ball is unjuiced? 

 

You asked what was there to like, and that projection is actually what he finished with last season playing half of his games as a semi-reserve OF and without Lindor/Ramirez/Santana. The upside is that he improves on his numbers from last year. For as devalued as you say power is, only 10 guys in the entire league went 40/90 last year. Sure we are gambling a bit on upside at his ADP but I dont mind him versus the players you mentioned. 

 

Sano ADP 124 Actually more expensive than Reyes and yes I would say he is similar type of player. Where are his SBs? He's played 486 games with 2 career SBs. 

 

Franmil ADP 140

 

Edwin ADP 152 Age 37 and is descending as a professional baseball player. Also plays a different position, where are his SBs? Hasnt chipped in more than 3 SBs in 7 years and hes a pretty solid bet for zero in 2020. 

 

Khris Davis ADP 169 Good value but youre also betting on a big time bounce back after last season. Prime Khris Davis (what youre chasing when you buy off of a down year) is actually similar to Franmil Reyes type of dream season with average walks and no SBs. And Khris Davis was an early round draft staple for years. Where are his SBs?

 

Justin Upton ADP 202 Agreed. I love Upton this year in drafts

 

 

 

 

Edited by davidgoretiz

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My bone with him is you can't trust him to get healthy R's fpr a guy with 30+ HR power. So he's really there as a 2 cat guy. One of those "puzzle piece" players. You draft to help HRs like you draft Mallex Smith to help SBs.

No way i'm taking him before L. Gurriel if both players are still there.

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2 hours ago, davidgoretiz said:

 

You asked what was there to like, and that projection is actually what he finished with last season playing half of his games as a semi-reserve OF and without Lindor/Ramirez/Santana. The upside is that he improves on his numbers from last year. For as devalued as you say power is, only 10 guys in the entire league went 40/90 last year. Sure we are gambling a bit on upside at his ADP but I dont mind him versus the players you mentioned. 

 

Sano ADP 124 Actually more expensive than Reyes and yes I would say he is similar type of player. Where are his SBs? He's played 486 games with 2 career SBs. 

 

Franmil ADP 140

 

Edwin ADP 152 Age 37 and is descending as a professional baseball player. Also plays a different position, where are his SBs? Hasnt chipped in more than 3 SBs in 7 years and hes a pretty solid bet for zero in 2020. 

 

Khris Davis ADP 169 Good value but youre also betting on a big time bounce back after last season. Prime Khris Davis (what youre chasing when you buy off of a down year) is actually similar to Franmil Reyes type of dream season with average walks and no SBs. And Khris Davis was an early round draft staple for years. Where are his SBs?

 

Justin Upton ADP 202 Agreed. I love Upton this year in drafts

 

 

 

 


I think you misunderstood me, the players I put as examples aren’t SB threats necessarily, I meant similar players to Reyes who are better and cheaper. I also didn’t mean the same position. If we’re talking the same position though:, Upton, Davis, Renfroe (I think he’ll have a breakout year and actually steals some bases), Schwarber (slightly cheaper), are all OF’s who I see as better values. 

In auctions that I’ve been doing, Franmil typically goes before Sano.

Both Davis and Encarnacion are projected to be better by Steamer. I think Edwin can have one more solid year and Davis is too young to decline, he was playing through injury last year.

Glad we agree on Upton.

 

My point is Reyes is a one-dimensional player who is yet to really put it all together when he struggles in Cleveland last season. I ignore ST stats as players experiment, the competition is weak... there’s a reason why experts say to generally ignore them. 

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1 hour ago, Slatykamora said:

My bone with him is you can't trust him to get healthy R's fpr a guy with 30+ HR power. So he's really there as a 2 cat guy. One of those "puzzle piece" players. You draft to help HRs like you draft Mallex Smith to help SBs.

No way i'm taking him before L. Gurriel if both players are still there.

This sums it up perfectly and Gurriel goes after him so again better value.

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Posted (edited)
On 3/12/2020 at 1:49 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

This sums it up perfectly and Gurriel goes after him so again better value.

[...]

Just can’t quit the franimal, I think he’s primed for a big season. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed Cool Story
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On 3/11/2020 at 9:19 PM, Thenewwildone8 said:

He also doesn’t help in SB’s or BA, is way overpriced and hit .237/.304/.468 for Cleveland last season. He actually hit better in Petco. He’s also terrible at drawing walks. Not that much to like here, you can get cheaper power in auctions and get much better deals with later picks.

so this post makes no sense.....

 

his BA is above league average. 

 

keep up this attitude and the loser bracket is what you will be competing in. 

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Franmil Reyes has crunched the ball in Cactus League play, slashing .337/.370/.779 with five homers and 11 RBI in 10 games.

Advice: He leads all of spring training with those five bombs, although he is tied with three other players -- Orlando Arcia, Ryan O'Hearn and Dodgers prospect Cody Thomas. Of those four players, Reyes is by far the most likely to carry that level of power-hitting prowess into the regular season. The 24-year-old designated hitter bashed 37 dingers last year while playing for the Padres and Indians. Unlike many oversized sluggers, Reyes isn't a drain in the batting average category -- he has a career .260 AVG, which is better than last year's .252 league average. He is a four-category player only and has yet to even attempt a stolen base in his career. Rotoworld.com Saturday, 10:02 am

 

if you don't think he is going to have a monster year, just hand your money to the other players right  now. 

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I can not wait til i get tons! of Franmil delivered every single day!

More ABs

More experience

Better lineup

Lookout world a 4 Cat Monster is comin for you all! Glad hes on my team...

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This guy is hitting 300 this year. Where the hell did this come from? And has 5 bombs, so it's not like he's lost all his power.

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40 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

This guy is hitting 300 this year. Where the hell did this come from? And has 5 bombs, so it's not like he's lost all his power.

The guy hits the ball as hard as anyone in baseball, so if he gets some babip luck like is he is now it’s not overly surprising. I doubt he carries a .300avg over a longer period of time, but could easily see him in the .275-.285 range. He’s as streaky as they come so let’s just hope he rides it all season. 

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