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Gerrit Cole 2020 Outlook

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48 minutes ago, Triple Short Of a Cycle said:

Is this a serious post?

Pitchers are volatile as hell to begin with and you just don’t love to see it. Granted it is spring training and all, but new team, NYY pressure, contract pressure, losing Severino must carry the load pressure are all factors that could be in his mind. He was also a part of the “cheater” Astros and doesn’t have his boy JV to push him to be the best anymore either. You just never know and spring training or not you don’t like to see a guy get shelled by a scrub team and an aging miggy. If he gets blasted next outing will it be time for concern then? Fantasy drafts are upon us and it’s never too early to reconsider players. 

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1 minute ago, bdawkins456 said:

Pitchers are volatile as hell to begin with and you just don’t love to see it. Granted it is spring training and all, but new team, NYY pressure, contract pressure, losing Severino must carry the load pressure are all factors that could be in his mind. He was also a part of the “cheater” Astros and doesn’t have his boy JV to push him to be the best anymore either. You just never know and spring training or not you don’t like to see a guy get shelled by a scrub team and an aging miggy. If he gets blasted next outing will it be time for concern then? Fantasy drafts are upon us and it’s never too early to reconsider players. 

 

its a few innings in spring training, relax.

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10 minutes ago, bdawkins456 said:

Pitchers are volatile as hell to begin with and you just don’t love to see it. Granted it is spring training and all, but new team, NYY pressure, contract pressure, losing Severino must carry the load pressure are all factors that could be in his mind. He was also a part of the “cheater” Astros and doesn’t have his boy JV to push him to be the best anymore either. You just never know and spring training or not you don’t like to see a guy get shelled by a scrub team and an aging miggy. If he gets blasted next outing will it be time for concern then? Fantasy drafts are upon us and it’s never too early to reconsider players. 

 

I think you're looking very hard for reasons to be concerned.

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16 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

 

I think you're looking very hard for reasons to be concerned.

You very well might be right and he might be an 18 game winner with 280k’s and a 3.00 ERA, but I just figured I’d bring it up since he’s a first round pick who was getting shelled.

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10 minutes ago, bdawkins456 said:

You very well might be right and he might be an 18 game winner with 280k’s and a 3.00 ERA, but I just figured I’d bring it up since he’s a first round pick who was getting shelled.

I would highly suggest just tuning out ST if I were you - it’s going to play tricks with your mind.

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33 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I would highly suggest just tuning out ST if I were you - it’s going to play tricks with your mind.

Miggy hit two HRs today off Cole. Is he a 1st rounder again? Discuss...

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Posted (edited)

I put zero stock in spring.  But DeGrom is my SP1 and it isn’t even close IMO.  Cole would be 2-4 somewhere in there. I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t skeptical somewhat of what will happen leaving the cheating bastard Astros.  I think Dawkins makes some fair points that are worth discussing.  Big contract players do have a tendency to carry some extra weight on their shoulders.

Edited by Cmilne23
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14 hours ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Miggy hit two HRs today off Cole. Is he a 1st rounder again? Discuss...

I understand the joke, but this isn’t what I am saying. Miggy IS irrelevant in fantasy terms now. He IS expected to be nothing special, so to see him dropping weight in the spring and cranking 2 bombs off the top rated pitcher in the universe makes you think hmm maybe I’ll see what he does the rest of the spring. It’s possible he outperforms his ADP. However, Cole IS the top ranked pitcher in baseball, he IS the top projected points leader in fantasy. He SHOULD be held to a higher standard in my opinion. Sure you can say spring is spring, but you can also just as easily say damn I should have seen this coming since spring training 3 months into the year if it goes badly. Spring training stats are a mystery, but at the same time it is the most up to date performance we get to evaluate. Therefore, it makes spring somewhat intriguing. I am by no means a nutcase and all of a sudden assuming the worst because of one spring training game, but it’s tough to COMPLETELY disregard current baseball. 

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It seems everybody in the fantasy world is IN on this guy.

The first drafted pitcher in mostly all leagues and ADPs.

I just accidently drafted him in one of my 8 leagues as I felt his value was solid.

Why should I NOT be worried about:

- A pitcher getting an insane contract going to a HR-friendly park. 

We've seen time and time again when SPs go get that mega contract often times their next year is just not nearly as good. Doesn't have to be a disaster, but it won't be AS good.

- His track record. Cole doesn't have a long track record like a DeGrom or Max or JV.

 

IDK. I mean this guy is THE top dog. You have to PAY UP for him. I don't feel confident. 

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The odds of 2019 being his career year are very, very high. He's still damn good, but there's plenty of reasons (all detailed throughout this thread) to believe he'll take a step back this season.

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There's definitely reasons he can take a step back, just don't confuse any of those reasons with his Spring Training performance which has no bearing on this season.

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It would be nearly impossible to improve on last season. That was one of the best seasons in recent memory, especially with the ball that was being used. However, I still expect him to post absolutely elite numbers in 2020.

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I think he had the batter's signs last year guys. Something to think about.

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5 hours ago, bdawkins456 said:

Spring training stats are a mystery, but at the same time it is the most up to date performance we get to evaluate. Therefore, it makes spring somewhat intriguing. I am by no means a nutcase and all of a sudden assuming the worst because of one spring training game, but it’s tough to COMPLETELY disregard current baseball. 

Ok, fair enough.  I guess I’d just ask: how much did your evaluation of him change after previously making two ST starts and allowing no runs in 3 2/3 innings?

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, bdawkins456 said:

I understand the joke, but this isn’t what I am saying. Miggy IS irrelevant in fantasy terms now. He IS expected to be nothing special, so to see him dropping weight in the spring and cranking 2 bombs off the top rated pitcher in the universe makes you think hmm maybe I’ll see what he does the rest of the spring. It’s possible he outperforms his ADP. However, Cole IS the top ranked pitcher in baseball, he IS the top projected points leader in fantasy. He SHOULD be held to a higher standard in my opinion. Sure you can say spring is spring, but you can also just as easily say damn I should have seen this coming since spring training 3 months into the year if it goes badly. Spring training stats are a mystery, but at the same time it is the most up to date performance we get to evaluate. Therefore, it makes spring somewhat intriguing. I am by no means a nutcase and all of a sudden assuming the worst because of one spring training game, but it’s tough to COMPLETELY disregard current baseball. 

 

Spring training for established stars such as Cole is all about preparation for the start of the season; conditioning, working on new stuff. Highly doubt there are serious game plans and scouting reports on attacking hitters. Up to date performances in spring is for evaluating players fighting for jobs. Cole is not fighting for a job.

If this was in April/May, sure, you have a reason to start worrying.

Edited by Gryfter

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6 hours ago, bdawkins456 said:

I understand the joke, but this isn’t what I am saying. Miggy IS irrelevant in fantasy terms now. He IS expected to be nothing special, so to see him dropping weight in the spring and cranking 2 bombs off the top rated pitcher in the universe makes you think hmm maybe I’ll see what he does the rest of the spring. It’s possible he outperforms his ADP. However, Cole IS the top ranked pitcher in baseball, he IS the top projected points leader in fantasy. He SHOULD be held to a higher standard in my opinion. Sure you can say spring is spring, but you can also just as easily say damn I should have seen this coming since spring training 3 months into the year if it goes badly. Spring training stats are a mystery, but at the same time it is the most up to date performance we get to evaluate. Therefore, it makes spring somewhat intriguing. I am by no means a nutcase and all of a sudden assuming the worst because of one spring training game, but it’s tough to COMPLETELY disregard current baseball. 

I actually pay more attention to spring training than the average fantasy baseball player, but I don’t just look at stat lines in a vacuum, it’s all about context. There was a significant amount of wind blowing out to centerfield in yesterday’s game leading to 11 home runs. The prior Tigers/Red Sox game in this same stadium ended in an 11-11 tie. This was fluky and related to weather and stadium factors. Yesterday’s performance in no way changes my valuation of Cole, Miggy, or Demirettte. I mean, Kyle Higashioka also hit two home runs in that game!

The things I’m looking for in spring training games are how are players looking coming off of injuries, pitchers’ velocity readings, new pitches, swing changes and that sort of thing. There was a study that I read last year that said the most relevant stat to keep an eye on was hitters’ k and bb rates after 40 plate appearances. A specific example is a player like Travis Shaw. Was last year’s disaster just a bad year and is a rebound coming this year? Well, so far he’s batting.118 with a 11/1 k/bb ratio in just 17 at bats so I’m not betting on it, but I’ll keep tracking him.

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9 hours ago, bdawkins456 said:

I understand the joke, but this isn’t what I am saying. Miggy IS irrelevant in fantasy terms now. He IS expected to be nothing special, so to see him dropping weight in the spring and cranking 2 bombs off the top rated pitcher in the universe makes you think hmm maybe I’ll see what he does the rest of the spring. It’s possible he outperforms his ADP. However, Cole IS the top ranked pitcher in baseball, he IS the top projected points leader in fantasy. He SHOULD be held to a higher standard in my opinion. Sure you can say spring is spring, but you can also just as easily say damn I should have seen this coming since spring training 3 months into the year if it goes badly. Spring training stats are a mystery, but at the same time it is the most up to date performance we get to evaluate. Therefore, it makes spring somewhat intriguing. I am by no means a nutcase and all of a sudden assuming the worst because of one spring training game, but it’s tough to COMPLETELY disregard current baseball. 

 

The game was absurdly windy. Everybody was hitting HR's. No point in overreacting to a spring training game. 

Cole will good. He just wont be good on my team since he seems to be going top 8 in every draft! 

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