Sidearmer

Tommy La Stella 2020 Outlook

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Tommy had a legitimate breakout in 2019: .295 / 49 R / 44 RBI 16 HR - All career highs, and he only played 80 games. He played half the year, I don't have to tell anyone what those numbers look like extrapolated. This came from nowhere, but many of the saber metric and advanced stats fully supported this breakout. He changed his approach and it paid huge dividends.

Looking toward this season, he looks like the clear favorite to lead off in a lineup with Trout and Rendon batting 2 and 3. Could be a prime spot to rack up runs during the year while producing average and power.

His current ADP on Fantrax is 294, which is grossly low. I will be looking at La Stella in the early teen rounds, before pick 200. His breakout was real, there's no reason to not think he won't repeat what he did last year or at least be close.

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28 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

Tommy had a legitimate breakout in 2019: .295 / 49 R / 44 RBI 16 HR - All career highs, and he only played 80 games. He played half the year, I don't have to tell anyone what those numbers look like extrapolated. This came from nowhere, but many of the saber metric and advanced stats fully supported this breakout. He changed his approach and it paid huge dividends.

Looking toward this season, he looks like the clear favorite to lead off in a lineup with Trout and Rendon batting 2 and 3. Could be a prime spot to rack up runs during the year while producing average and power.

His current ADP on Fantrax is 294, which is grossly low. I will be looking at La Stella in the early teen rounds, before pick 200. His breakout was real, there's no reason to not think he won't repeat what he did last year or at least be close.

What position will he play in 2020?

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16 minutes ago, Topgun said:

What position will he play in 2020?

 

I'd assume he will play second and first base. Fletcher will be moved back into a utility role. On days Ohtani is pitching or getting a day off Pujols will kick to DH and La Stella could play first. There will also be plenty of days Pujols will get the day off where La Stella can kick over to 1B. I don't think playing time will be an issue. If he produces he won't lose any playing time.

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7 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

I'd assume he will play second and first base. Fletcher will be moved back into a utility role. On days Ohtani is pitching or getting a day off Pujols will kick to DH and La Stella could play first. There will also be plenty of days Pujols will get the day off where La Stella can kick over to 1B. I don't think playing time will be an issue. If he produces he won't lose any playing time.

☝️

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As the people mentioned above, playing time could be the big issue. Fletcher will be out there everyday because of his glove and bat. Simmons has SS locked down, Rendon at 3rd. Sure, when Ohtani pitches Pujols can slide over to DH and La Stella can play 1st. Or if they give Pujols the day off. But Pujols has still averaged out 130+ games the past 5 seasons believe it or not, so it's not like he's resting all the time. It's also hard to bench him when he still provides some production and he happens to be making 25 million dollars still I believe. Playing time seems to be a real issue to me. Good problem for the Angels but bad for us fantasy owners.

Edited by RedRaider27

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Roster Resource has La Stella as the strong side of a platoon with David Fletcher. If that comes to be, I would think he will play virtually every day, with starts 75% of the time plus rest days for Pujols at DH, days for Ohtani pitching, and rest days for Ohtani. Any injury in the infield would also lock in La Stella for an every day role. His ADP is still around 280 on NFBC which to me seems ridiculous. He will be on all my teams at this rate.

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9 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Roster Resource has La Stella as the strong side of a platoon with David Fletcher. If that comes to be, I would think he will play virtually every day, with starts 75% of the time plus rest days for Pujols at DH, days for Ohtani pitching, and rest days for Ohtani. Any injury in the infield would also lock in La Stella for an every day role. His ADP is still around 280 on NFBC which to me seems ridiculous. He will be on all my teams at this rate.

I agree, he’s a great bargain right now. I’m also buying Justin Upton for a bounce back year this year. He might come to bat with runners on base more than anyone in baseball this year. Here’s a decent breakdown on La Stella:

 

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15 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

Roster Resource has La Stella as the strong side of a platoon with David Fletcher. If that comes to be, I would think he will play virtually every day, with starts 75% of the time plus rest days for Pujols at DH, days for Ohtani pitching, and rest days for Ohtani. Any injury in the infield would also lock in La Stella for an every day role. His ADP is still around 280 on NFBC which to me seems ridiculous. He will be on all my teams at this rate.

At that price, I'm buying as well

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Don’t think PT will be a huge issue if he resembles anything like last year in spring training. Seems like a bargain right now and I expect his ADP to rise big time if he performs in spring training.

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In regards to playing time I can assure you of one thing:  the Angels will continue to trot what's left of Albert Pujols out there on a regular basis no matter how much worse he gets.  

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Opposite field dinger yesterday. Got me looking into his projections. The projection systems really hate him:

image.thumb.png.5347a1face28732a90a36d391fa1c29b.png

 

I find this semi-surprising given his breakout is supported solidly with his underlying metrics. I get he came out of no where, but there was tangible improvement, so to compare his prior years isn't a fair comparison IMO. I also get the playing time considerations but these systems all have him at a pretty weak level on a per PA level. Maybe I'm just much higher on him than I should be. Composite ADP of 270 per Fantasy Pros, so he's virtually free. Looks like he will be on every one of my teams.

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Maybe this is why:

 

Maddon said. "I’ve never seen Tommy play a whole lot of first base. I’m not saying it’s impossible. It’s just not a high priority yet, but it could be. It could be." There was some thought that La Stella could slide to first base, pushing an aging Albert Pujols to the bench, with Anthony Rendon now at third base and David Fletcher being able to man the keystone, but Maddon's comments suggest Pujols isn't going anywhere yet. The manager instead said the plan is likely to have two of La Stella, Fletcher and right fielder Brian Goodwin in the lineup on a given day, depending on the opposing pitcher. That could cut into La Stella's at-bats, but against right-handers he should regularly be in the lineup and should be productive after a breakout 2019 season.

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17 hours ago, rabaak said:

Maybe this is why:

 

Maddon said. "I’ve never seen Tommy play a whole lot of first base. I’m not saying it’s impossible. It’s just not a high priority yet, but it could be. It could be." There was some thought that La Stella could slide to first base, pushing an aging Albert Pujols to the bench, with Anthony Rendon now at third base and David Fletcher being able to man the keystone, but Maddon's comments suggest Pujols isn't going anywhere yet. The manager instead said the plan is likely to have two of La Stella, Fletcher and right fielder Brian Goodwin in the lineup on a given day, depending on the opposing pitcher. That could cut into La Stella's at-bats, but against right-handers he should regularly be in the lineup and should be productive after a breakout 2019 season.

 

If he starts the season only playing against RHP he's still a pretty nice value IMO. And I just don't see how Pujols is going to play 150 + games at 1B. Ohtani will also not play every day either, opening up the DH heavily during the year. Angels have no other options at 1B on the roster, so I just don't see how their hand isn't forced here.

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On 12/12/2019 at 2:16 PM, Sidearmer said:

His breakout was real, there's no reason to not think he won't repeat what he did last year or at least be close.

 

English may not be my second language but I can't tell what you've said or haven't said here.

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I'm trying to flesh that out... so, no reason exists, that would convince you to not hold the belief, that he will not repeat. 

spacer.png

 

 

Well, anyway, thanks for making this joint a little better. 

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Great season going in 2019 until injured, does he play like an All-star or does he regress in this Covid shortened season?

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23 minutes ago, MonsterMan said:

Great season going in 2019 until injured, does he play like an All-star or does he regress in this Covid shortened season?

 

I have some shares. I think he's projected to bat leadoff vs righties. Underrated asset in daily points leagues.

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Batting 5th opening day vs. righty Montas.

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6 minutes ago, tristan0823 said:

Do we think he assumes an everyday role with the As? 

I would think so.

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6 minutes ago, tristan0823 said:

Do we think he assumes an everyday role with the As? 

According to the Rotoworld blurb above your post he may end up as the A's 2B.

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As an A’s fan, I think he’ll be split time btw 2B & DH with Pinder, with Kemp getting an occassional start to spell either.  TLS will be an every day player — they need his consistent bat.  Khris Davis is not going to see a lot of AB’s RoS.  With the A’s in the hunt for the #1 seed, I do not foresee them giving KD more time to figure things out this season.  
 
My biggest question is whether Melvin bats TLS 2nd with Lazer being ice cold ever since the suspension.  

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4 hours ago, 80version said:

As an A’s fan, I think he’ll be split time btw 2B & DH with Pinder, with Kemp getting an occassional start to spell either.  TLS will be an every day player — they need his consistent bat.  Khris Davis is not going to see a lot of AB’s RoS.  With the A’s in the hunt for the #1 seed, I do not foresee them giving KD more time to figure things out this season.  
 
My biggest question is whether Melvin bats TLS 2nd with Lazer being ice cold ever since the suspension.  

 

Makes sense to me. Good trade. He's such a solid hitter...good contact rate, super low strikeout rate, walks a good amount, he should be a good compliment to all those bangers.

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