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Lord_Varys

2019 Lessons Learned

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My biggest takeaways this year:

 

- Finding the right late round quarterback is the skeleton key to fantasy success.  Bad owners make playoffs and win leagues because they grab Lamar, or Mahomes last year, or Ryan the year before, or Wilson his 2nd year, etc etc etc.  Every year.  This is the secret.  They key to money.  Find and pick the right late round qb.  I'll probably wait next year then spam the position with like 3 picks in 4 late rounds.   Potential targets: Kyler, Danny Dimes, Tannehill, Burrow.  Maybe Wentz if they get some stud receivers in the draft.  All those guys can add rushing, which is huge. 

 

- Fade any player who gets a high ankle sprain.  I tried to buy low on Saquon and Kamara thru their byes and injuries and it was not worth it.  They never come back full strength. Better to try and sell low immediately, or hold them a couple weeks and sell to an owner who is interested at closer to full price, because they're not gonna return that full value upon return. 

 

What did you learn this year? 

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i pimped Mahomes all summer of '18 - called him a no brainer choice for both magick foosball and NFL MVP as early as July. 

it was met with much derision and push back ... a few believers in there with me, who also advocated riding the kid bareback - but it waz mostly folks casting doubts. 

he goes out in week one and rips the Chargers to shreds ... and away we went ✌

 

then i scoffed at those pimping Lamar the same way this exhibition season ...

LESSON. LEARNED. 

 

 

i could use to listen to others more often 🚉

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Be more mindful of good players who are on bad offensives and offensive lines, like for Mixon.  I know Mixon has been doing great lately, but the first half of the year was pretty rough.

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Go against common sense. The good matchups rarely workout. The tough matchups are blow up games. 

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1. Just draft the BPA (I've done 0RB in the past, didn't this year, and thank goodness for that).

2. Do the pre-season research, and as many practice drafts as you can.

3. Don't follow live scores (struggled to stick to this one).

4. Take the Rotoworld forums with an enormous pinch of salt.

5. Take it seriously up to a point. So much of this game is based on luck with matchups and injuries. You can't affect it. Try to accept it!

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4 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

Find and pick the right late round qb.

Easier said than done. It always seems obvious in hindsight. Don't think we're seeing another Lamar or Mahomes any time soon. Just because it's happened the past two seasons doesn't mean it's happening next year or the year after.

 

3 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

Go against common sense. The good matchups rarely workout. The tough matchups are blow up games. 

Man ain't this the sad truth. Don't remember a fantasy season that had so many contrarian outcomes.

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Pick out of a hat, both at the draft and when setting your lineup. 

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Never draft a Bruce Arians player unless their name is Evans or Godwin.

QUIT being swayed by all these so called experts.

Last minute line-up changes are not good unless it involves one of your players being deactivated.

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Do enough homework to identify the best Late round QB which I did this year with Lamar.  

Try to take 4+ RBs by round 6-7.

Beside the Top 5 WRs , you can find similar talent later or FA.

Trust your gut

Always be on the trade hunt. 

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Dropped Pitt defense weeks ago for philly and their potentially amazing schedule down the stretch.

 

Lesson learned- don’t bail on a top tier D prematurely for a lesser one with good matchups. 
 

Don’t be afraid to roll the dice on the hot hand players peaking at the right time (AJ Brown, Higbee) over more known quantities (OBJ, H Henry)

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One handcuff is not enough. :D 

Drafted Cook, drafted Mattison late and now I will be spectator in the first row when Mike Boone will be picked beore I can because of waiver priority.

"League winner"!

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I thought this game is luck related but I was wrong. It's very luck related. I thought I drafted good stable players in the first 4 rounds

+ Saquon, Mixon, Thielen, Woods - all busted the first I don't know 6 weeks or so (besides Thielen)

+ drafted Lamar in the fifth (2QB league) and (nearly) he alone carried me to a 10-3 record

So I was lucky drafting the MIP and MVP of this game otherwise my season would be like 6-7 or so.

Same luck with CMC and Pats Def. These three are (or were) just cheat codes.

It was said at the beginning of the season, no matter if you draft Saquon, Kamara, Zeke or CMC you most likely get the same production - wrong. Lucky you if you choose Zeke or even CMC, otherwise you're screwed.

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No matter where he ends up, no matter who his QB is, no matter how prolific the offense is, unless there’s a big time drop (round 5+), don’t draft Odell Beckham highly, you can find his production much cheaper in the later rounds.

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Need luck, bottom line. Opponent picked up Perriman/Miller this week and flexed them for over 60. You can study all day and night, have the #1 seed/most points, but luck is needed to win the championship, lots of it.

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Best player available whilst drafting.

Don't bother with backup handcuffs whilst there are players getting regular snaps on the wire. Mostert a good example here. There's a reason they kept him involved and it wasn't just to piss Coleman and Breida owners off.

Respect the value of a solid floor. I don't play PPR, but my successful rosters this year were built around the solid base of players like DJ Moore and John Brown, paired with big hitter boom/bust guys like Mike Evans and Amari Cooper.

The tight end position is crap. Don't fret over it. 

Ignore everything Michael Fabiano says, particularly regarding which defense you should start or sit.

Check the weather in all your games prior to kick off. Fade everyone in inclement conditions no matter who they are.

Try to enjoy it. It's supposed to be fun.

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Mock drafts (computer Sims on sleeper) work. I never did them in the past, but this year I spammed them from my draft position. Had a monster draft because I could focus on key decisions each round beforehand and knew what was coming. 

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You still need good RBs to win your league. Plenty of good WR can be had late in drafts or plucked off the waiver wire.

Edited by ponchsox

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1.  Trust my picks.  In hind sight I drafted insanely well.   I started 0-3 and started to panic.   Dropped  DJ Moore,  Gallup and traded Waller.....  My path to the championship would have been much easier had I not panicked  !

 

2.  Like others have said watch out and adjust accordingly for great players on horrible teams or with bad schemes.  

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Don’t play FF in 2020 lmao. Best record, most points. Doesn’t matter. I’m getting bounced by Julio Winston and drake this week unless MT13 and Doyle combine for around 50. 

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1. Focus less on the HC personality and focus more on the guy calling the offensive plays unless it's both or his name is John Gruden

2. Avoid players who are unhealthy in pre-season

3. Schemes matter

4. You don't win your league on draft day, don't fall in love with your picks

Edited by dashoe
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4 hours ago, mjb said:

Need luck, bottom line. Opponent picked up Perriman/Miller this week and flexed them for over 60. You can study all day and night, have the #1 seed/most points, but luck is needed to win the championship, lots of it.

 

Sounds like your opponent did his homework, understood the probable outcomes  and put them in their lineup. So his process was not luck or random. The point production was but not his process, specifically if he selected both and played them

So not so much luck as you passed on  the same opportunity he had 😂

Edited by dashoe
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