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Lord_Varys

2019 Lessons Learned

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Target guys who came up as big disappointments this year as they will be undervalued and chances are they will regress back to form because talent wins out in the end. Don’t be afraid of injury history, anyone can get injured (unless it’s will fuller he gets injured more then anyone).

 

I think next year Barkley Kamara and Beckham will be nice value picks considering the sentiment many have towards them after this year.

 

Last year it was guys like fournette, Dalvin and for most of the season Henry and Cooper who were the major busts. 

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Investing in a team coached by Gase is a minefield.

If you own Bell-Darnold-crowder-anderson you are probably are not doing as well or in the playoffs as the Drake-Tannehill-Parker owner

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I had been trying to sell Austin Ekeler, Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry all year long...

Yet, these cats are the ones that took me to the finals...

Sell high the "experts" claimed... Regression screams the next....

 

Edited by Szer0
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On 12/15/2019 at 9:48 AM, Sonny_D said:

Pick out of a hat, both at the draft and when setting your lineup. 

 

I really wouldn't. If you draft #1 I would recommend CMc.

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8 minutes ago, Szer0 said:

I had been trying to sell Austin Ekeler, Mark Ingram and Derrick Henry all year long...

Yet, these cats are the ones that took me to the finals...

Sell high the "experts" claimed... Regression screams the next....

 

 

Yeah, we are our own worst enemy sometimes. On the flipside, I had patience with Landry, Emmanuel Sanders, Ertz and Woods which got me to the semi-finals. Sometimes just letting things play out is the best policy. The problem is, there's no way of knowing which will work.

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On 12/16/2019 at 6:05 AM, Hacksawjimduggan said:

Mock drafts (computer Sims on sleeper) work. I never did them in the past, but this year I spammed them from my draft position. Had a monster draft because I could focus on key decisions each round beforehand and knew what was coming. 

 

Yeah, I had this in my lists. It makes the world of difference in snake drafts in particular. Depends upon how serious your league is, but people are definitely affected by where people are ranked on your platform. Know the bargains really well, and don't be afraid to jump in a little early on guys. It's how I got Lamar Jackson, John Brown, and Chris Godwin, who made a real difference this year.

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My lesson is don't go overboard on the QB devalue thing.

I mean, this year I absolutely wouldn't take a QB before like the 8th or 9th round in almost every draft and sometimes I was waiting later.

I don't know if I'll employ the same strategy again.  I mean, there a lot of bad picks in those 4th-6th rounds this year that never panned out.  I'd much rather have taken Lamar, R Wilson, etc in those rounds instead of like OJ Howard or whoever.

I get the whole supply and demand argument but many of those 4th=6th round picks are shot in the darks anyways and guys we're hoping might be good.  I'll have to think harder about just taking the best player and if it's a QB ,so be it.

All I know is the past two years now, the teams with the #1 QB have been the best teams in my fantasy leagues (Mahomes last year, Jackson this year).  Yeah, the tough thing is predicting who it will be but if Lamar is sitting there in the third round next year, I'll have a tough time passing on him. 

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On 12/16/2019 at 5:41 AM, fjthegrey said:

1 Best player available whilst drafting.

2 Don't bother with backup handcuffs whilst there are players getting regular snaps on the wire. Mostert a good example here. There's a reason they kept him involved and it wasn't just to piss Coleman and Breida owners off.

3 Respect the value of a solid floor. I don't play PPR, but my successful rosters this year were built around the solid base of players like DJ Moore and John Brown, paired with big hitter boom/bust guys like Mike Evans and Amari Cooper.

4 The tight end position is crap. Don't fret over it. 

5 Ignore everything Michael Fabiano says, particularly regarding which defense you should start or sit.

6 Check the weather in all your games prior to kick off. Fade everyone in inclement conditions no matter who they are.

7 Try to enjoy it. It's supposed to be fun.

 

Yeah, pretty much agree with all of that, put most of it down on my list. 1: for sure. 2: I went big on handcuffs this year and it didn't really work out at all, other than I managed to trade Latavius and Kamara away as a package. 3: got me to the semis in one league, but at least partly because I got lucky with matchups.

I will say that the best way to not fret over TE is to draft one of the top guys. I had Kelce and Ertz. Thought I might regret Ertz for a while, but talent will out. Didn't really worry about TE at all.

Also 7 is clearly easier said than done! I really enjoy shooting the **** on here though, which helps.

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8 minutes ago, tts42572 said:

My lesson is don't go overboard on the QB devalue thing.

I mean, this year I absolutely wouldn't take a QB before like the 8th or 9th round in almost every draft and sometimes I was waiting later.


It’s a tough balance for sure. I mean, you could argue that since those mid round picks are shots in the dark that it’s more important to have more shots on ones that hit. Guys like KG, Godwin, Ingram, Henry, etc really made your team. Sure hard to predict, but do you think the guys that chased Mahommes 2018 season were happy this year? Sure injury had some to do with that, but he just hasn’t been the same. There are always late round qbs that produce. Lamar being one of them this year. Brees and Winston owners are probably happy they waited.  Of course there are a lot that don’t either. But it’s easier to hit on one at the end or get one on the ww during the season than it is to get a top producing wr/rb.

 

There are just no guarantees. I always say any strategy works as long as you pick the right players, unfortunately I did not do that this year in my main league 😄

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1 hour ago, leffe186 said:

 

I really wouldn't. If you draft #1 I would recommend CMc.

 

You mean the same way ADP this year for Barkley was 1.01? Got it. We’ll remember that. 

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10 hours ago, tts42572 said:

My lesson is don't go overboard on the QB devalue thing.

I mean, this year I absolutely wouldn't take a QB before like the 8th or 9th round in almost every draft and sometimes I was waiting later.

I don't know if I'll employ the same strategy again.  I mean, there a lot of bad picks in those 4th-6th rounds this year that never panned out.  I'd much rather have taken Lamar, R Wilson, etc in those rounds instead of like OJ Howard or whoever.

I get the whole supply and demand argument but many of those 4th=6th round picks are shot in the darks anyways and guys we're hoping might be good.  I'll have to think harder about just taking the best player and if it's a QB ,so be it.

All I know is the past two years now, the teams with the #1 QB have been the best teams in my fantasy leagues (Mahomes last year, Jackson this year).  Yeah, the tough thing is predicting who it will be but if Lamar is sitting there in the third round next year, I'll have a tough time passing on him. 


I’m never picking a QB early again. It always blows up in my face. Last time it was Cam Newton after his monster season.

I tried to get Lamar this year but he went way before I expected. I picked Josh Allen in all my leagues super late and he was great all year. He’s had a terrible playoff schedule which was unlucky but I just dropped him for Fitzmagic. I beat the team with Lamar last week with Fitz, felt pretty good. There are always decent QBs to stream. 

Drew Lock and Daniel Jones are gonna be my picks next year, they will go late. 

I can also guarantee Lamar will be going round 2 next year, way too risky for me but I can see why people would do it. I do think he’s gonna be battling injuries at some point and just want to avoid that possibility in round 2.

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On 12/14/2019 at 5:27 PM, Lord_Varys said:

My biggest takeaways this year:

 

- Finding the right late round quarterback is the skeleton key to fantasy success.  SMART owners make playoffs and win leagues because they grab Lamar


 

ftfy

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Drafted QB last, late in my 12 team league and got Dak and Winston. Sweet, still playing!

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One thing that stands out to me is don’t play guys going into the weekend with an illness. They are dehydrated and weak. Evans in week 1, Lockett in week 13. Dude was throwing up on the sideline. Pats defense had the flu and got wasted in Houston. 

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11 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

 

You mean the same way ADP this year for Barkley was 1.01? Got it. We’ll remember that. 

 

No, I mean that you've got a better chance if you play the odds and go with who you think is best than picking it out of a hat - which was your plan. It's not 100% luck, just 80 or so.

(Saquon just got me to the final 😀)

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will only play in superflex leagues with 6 pt pass td, full ppr.  a lot better balanced scoring with more skill involved. takes the luck of the one guy hitting on lamar or mahomes last year or cmc out of it. if you hit on one of those guys in standard sized rosters you basically win the league.

continue to draft nuk.

 

Edited by colepenhagen

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3 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

will only play in superflex leagues with 6 pt pass td, full ppr.  a lot better balanced scoring with more skill involved. takes the luck of the one guy hitting on lamar or mahomes last year or cmc out of it. if you hit on one of those guys in standard sized rosters you basically win the league.

continue to draft nuk.

 

 

the guy who took CMC in our league only got to the playoffs because of him, and he gets a top 3 pick every year. it's beyond frustrating.

also, the Lamar owner had a top 3-4 team in a 12 teamer, but Lamar just made him unstoppable.

 

as for what i'm going on next year. i'm streaming defenses. I drafted the Bears late and stuck with them because it's the Bears, and it cost me a playoff spot. every time i've streamed a defense this year (3 times), they outscored the Bears, and i'm betting Denver will this week as well.

 

also going to be very weary of coaching staffs. Jake Ciely (who is the "#1" guy for RB's) had Montgomery over Henry preseason, and I moved Henry for Montgomery straight up. Nagy just never got him a chance to get him going. this along with the Bears D and s---y luck with matchups put me in the losers bracket, where i'm averaging 143 points in .5 PPR and would be cruising into the championship if I had one more regular season win.

Edited by axiom20XX

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Avoid using high draft capital on RBs that emerge late in the season will continue to be something I follow. Damien Williams again proved that. Thinking of guys like Drake or Mostert this year that may fool people again.

 

Hammer young second and third year WRs. Avoid high pedigree WRs in their first year on a new team.

Edited by kidsgotsoul
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1.

Its better to save the risky plays for the second half of the draft. There is no true safety but play the odds as you understand them and go as safe as possible early.

 

2.

Don't be too attached to your end of bench guys. The first month is about WW diamond mining so make sure you are in on that. Its like the second draft, the supplemental draft, only you have better information.

 

3.

Its just a game and you can be the best at it and still lose because regardless of what anyone says, there is an element of luck to it and well all see this every year. Make sure you're having fun and if it doesn't work out go ahead and create a thread on Rotoworld to get the disappointment out of your system. Better luck next year, you deserve a Chip and I'm rooting for you all the way!

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7 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

1.

Its better to save the risky plays for the second half of the draft. There is no true safety but play the odds as you understand them and go as safe as possible early.

 

2.

Don't be too attached to your end of bench guys. The first month is about WW diamond mining so make sure you are in on that. Its like the second draft, the supplemental draft, only you have better information.

 

3.

Its just a game and you can be the best at it and still lose because regardless of what anyone says, there is an element of luck to it and well all see this every year. Make sure you're having fun and if it doesn't work out go ahead and create a thread on Rotoworld to get the disappointment out of your system. Better luck next year, you deserve a Chip and I'm rooting for you all the way!

I’ll give the rest of my football thumbs up in this great post. Well said!! 👍👍

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Stick to your plan. I was going to draft a QB and TE late. I had Waller and Andrews in mind at TE and about 5 late round QBs I would be targeting, one being Jackson. I walked out of the draft with Henry at TE and Cam at QB. They fell to me considering where I thought they should go but only by a round each. 

Stock up on RBs. They're the most important position and the hardest to replace. I'm in a standard league with 2 RB spots and a flex spot. I almost always come away from the draft with 3 RBs in the first 4 rounds. Even in PPR I would most likely do the same. I've never had all 3 of my RBs hit as well as they did this year though. I also have bench RBs that have done well. 

Stay on top of the waiver wire. I'm going into the finals with only 3 players I drafted as my starting team. The 3 are my RBs. The rest of the starting lineup are players I picked up. It's crazy to think I'm in the finals with a team like that but my pickups have done well and RBs are the best in my league. 

Don't trade too early on in the season. I had 2 trades fall through because I was trying to shake things up for the sake of it and make a trade. If either trade went through I would have probably not even made the finals. 

Don't draft a defense with your last pick. I see this every year and I always fall for it. I end up scrambling around for a defense each week. The WRs I could get a few rounds earlier are no better than the last round Wars. However a reliable defense can go a long way. I may even say draft two of them with one being the last pick of the draft or second to last pick. 

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