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BigPapi44

Oscar Mercado 2020 Outlook

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Wondering what the Deshields trade means for OM.  Was really surprised they dealt for Deshields given that Mercado was really good and seems to be a solid defender.  What do you guys think the trade means to his value?

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How does the arrival of Delino DeShields Jr. impact Oscar Mercado’s playing time in center field for the Cleveland Indians?

 

Quote

Indians president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said the club expects Mercado, the breakout rookie star of the club’s 2019 campaign, to get everyday at-bats, whether that means he’s in center field, left or even right. Antonetti would not commit to a specific plan that includes Mercado or DeShields opening the 2020 season in center.

 

Even if Mercado hadn't received this vote of confidence, I see DeShields as no threat whatsoever to his PT.  Roster Resource has Greg Allen listed in RF, and if anything he'd be the one squeezed into a short side platoon role opposite DeShields.  A lot would have to break wrong for Mercado for him to lose time to both of those guys.

Oscar looks like a great buy to me at his current ~120ish ADP.  He doesn't have a headline-grabbing SB season yet, but he went 15/15 in about 3/4 of a season with a solid AVG.  I'll be happy to pull the trigger anywhere toward the 90-110 range, or maybe earlier if I'm lagging on SB.

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22 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

How does the arrival of Delino DeShields Jr. impact Oscar Mercado’s playing time in center field for the Cleveland Indians?

 

 

Even if Mercado hadn't received this vote of confidence, I see DeShields as no threat whatsoever to his PT.  Roster Resource has Greg Allen listed in RF, and if anything he'd be the one squeezed into a short side platoon role opposite DeShields.  A lot would have to break wrong for Mercado for him to lose time to both of those guys.

Oscar looks like a great buy to me at his current ~120ish ADP.  He doesn't have a headline-grabbing SB season yet, but he went 15/15 in about 3/4 of a season with a solid AVG.  I'll be happy to pull the trigger anywhere toward the 90-110 range, or maybe earlier if I'm lagging on SB.

Thanks Tony.  As a Mercado owner, this has me feeling much better.  I suspect that Mercado may play both CF and RF and that Reyes will DH almost exclusively.

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37 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

How does the arrival of Delino DeShields Jr. impact Oscar Mercado’s playing time in center field for the Cleveland Indians?

 

 

Even if Mercado hadn't received this vote of confidence, I see DeShields as no threat whatsoever to his PT.  Roster Resource has Greg Allen listed in RF, and if anything he'd be the one squeezed into a short side platoon role opposite DeShields.  A lot would have to break wrong for Mercado for him to lose time to both of those guys.

Oscar looks like a great buy to me at his current ~120ish ADP.  He doesn't have a headline-grabbing SB season yet, but he went 15/15 in about 3/4 of a season with a solid AVG.  I'll be happy to pull the trigger anywhere toward the 90-110 range, or maybe earlier if I'm lagging on SB.

 

I agree with this on both fronts. Oscar has the potential to become a really good player. While the Cleveland OF is crowded, its crowded with a lot of mediocrity: Jake Bauers, Bradley Zimmer, Jordan Luplow, Delino DeShields himself, Greg Allen, Tyler Naquin (out for a while with injury) and Franmil Reyes (an every day player but likely will be at DH majority of time, therefore won't be a huge factor in OF). None of these guys are playing ahead of Mercado.

I also do think there is some untapped SB upside here just based off his minor league numbers:

2015 (Low A): 50 SB

2016 (High A): 33 SB

2017 (AA): 38 SB

2018 (AAA): 37 SB

2019 (AAA + MLB): 29 SB

He can definitely hit 30 SB if they unleash him. The conservative Steamer has him projected at 21 SB. While its a good baseline the potential for 30+ is a good reason for many to pick him a round or 2 above his price.

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Oscar Mercado pretty much has a starting job here, unless he completely loses the ability to hit.

 

Deshields arguably is an upgrade over Greg Allen, though they both are poor hitters.  I think the Indians have a lot of 'meh' outfielders, so they are just seeing who takes off in spring-training to not get sent down to AAA.

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On 12/15/2019 at 10:38 PM, Sidearmer said:

 

I agree with this on both fronts. Oscar has the potential to become a really good player. While the Cleveland OF is crowded, its crowded with a lot of mediocrity: Jake Bauers, Bradley Zimmer, Jordan Luplow, Delino DeShields himself, Greg Allen, Tyler Naquin (out for a while with injury) and Franmil Reyes (an every day player but likely will be at DH majority of time, therefore won't be a huge factor in OF). None of these guys are playing ahead of Mercado.

 

Mediocrity is too kind of a word. This outfield is crap. I'm not sure there's a worse outfield in baseball. That being said I'm in on Mercado and it's possible one or two of these other guys emerge with fantasy value.

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I'll be main-lining vodka if they platoon Mercado. He's the only bright spot in that hideous outfield.

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

20/30 potential

 

draft him!

Love him this year as well.  Currently has ADP of 115.  How early are you looking to grab him to make sure you get him?

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2 hours ago, svdude said:

Love him this year as well.  Currently has ADP of 115.  How early are you looking to grab him to make sure you get him?

Wow, @ 115, I'm grabbing him around pick 90

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7 hours ago, svdude said:

Love him this year as well.  Currently has ADP of 115.  How early are you looking to grab him to make sure you get him?

 

4 hours ago, hockeyfan77 said:

Wow, @ 115, I'm grabbing him around pick 90

 

ya what hockeyfan said.  15-20 spots early.  so like 95 ish.  i find outfield to be very deep this year.  im perfectly fine with an outfield of something like Laureano, Soler, Mercado even ozuna and conforto as a 3 or 4.  all of them have great ADP imo.  ill prob draft dave dahl again too.  

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Mercado's 2019 statcast is nearly identical to Ozzie Albies in 2018.  One thing of note is Mercado is a bigger human and faster.

If he can make some slight improvements, he might not quite be Albies of 2019, but 20HR/25SB, .275AVG,.340OBP is the upside I can see for Mercado over the next few years.

Edited by Hellgrammite
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Extremely fast. Good in the field. Will keep him in the lineup every day. But... I'm betting on regression. His SB/CS % hasn't been very good at any level and he hit only 33 HR in over 2600 AB in the minors. His 15 HR last year in the majors were a career high for a season. 

.265/.320 12 hr 22 sb 130 runs&rbi - 5th outfielder in a 5 team roto

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36 minutes ago, Chadgo1 said:

Extremely fast. Good in the field. Will keep him in the lineup every day. But... I'm betting on regression. His SB/CS % hasn't been very good at any level and he hit only 33 HR in over 2600 AB in the minors. His 15 HR last year in the majors were a career high for a season. 

.265/.320 12 hr 22 sb 130 runs&rbi - 5th outfielder in a 5 team roto

 

Albies also did not hit for really any power in the minors, and was graded to have not much power, but still hit 25HR last year.

Mercado hasn't show me anything yet that says he can't be a 20HR guy.  That is how prospects often work out.  You have to see their potential and build, and can they reach it.  I don't see why Mercado can't reach his power potential.  His hit tool might never be as good as Albies, but his power may be greater.

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7 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

 

Albies also did not hit for really any power in the minors, and was graded to have not much power, but still hit 25HR last year.

Mercado hasn't show me anything yet that says he can't be a 20HR guy.  That is how prospects often work out.  You have to see their potential and build, and can they reach it.  I don't see why Mercado can't reach his power potential.  His hit tool might never be as good as Albies, but his power may be greater.

You may be right and it's not out of the realm of possibility as the trend seems to be players developing more power after they get into the majors.  I certainly hope so as Im a Tribe fan. I'm just concerned about his age and lengthy track record in the minors. Watching him play every day last year, he was a nice surprise and then he tailed off... but he seemed to adjust the last month. I'm not avoiding him in fantasy, my expectations are just lower than others in this thread.

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19 minutes ago, Hellgrammite said:

 

Albies also did not hit for really any power in the minors, and was graded to have not much power, but still hit 25HR last year.

Mercado hasn't show me anything yet that says he can't be a 20HR guy.  That is how prospects often work out.  You have to see their potential and build, and can they reach it.  I don't see why Mercado can't reach his power potential.  His hit tool might never be as good as Albies, but his power may be greater.

Albies was 20 when he made the majors and is currently 23.  Mercado 25, he's actually older today then Albies. You don't usually hold it against a teenage prospect not translating power as they are soo young.

I'm not dismissing power potential in him BTW. He's 6'2, after all. This example just makes no sense. These guys are completely different types of ball players. Albies feel to hit is what helps him play up his fringe power. I don't think Mercado has that type of hit tool, but I do think he has a taller frame to gain leverage.

 

 

Edited by Slatykamora
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17 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Going for an MRI on the wrist 

Why, HBP?

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Just now, 2ndCitySox said:

Why, HBP?

Jammed it diving for a ball a few days ago. 

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23 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Going for an MRI on the wrist 

He noted that it was feeling better today.  Hopefully just a sprain.  As mentioned going for an MRI, but he is also going to visit a hand specialist per Cleveland.com article.  Supposed to have an update tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Big League Choo said:

C'mon Oscar, [...] Pulling for you champ

Hey guys... just saw the following:

 
Follow-up imaging on Oscar Mercado’s wrist confirmed a mild sprain. He remains day to day.
9:59 AM · Mar 7, 2020·Twitter for iPhone
Edited by BigPapi44
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This might not drive down the price much but every little but helps. I’m all in at his adp of 128. He’s a legit threat for 20/20 and then some hitting between Lindor and Santana with Ramirez to follow. He should be in line for a good season. 

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3 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

This might not drive down the price much but every little but helps. I’m all in at his adp of 128. He’s a legit threat for 20/20 and then some hitting between Lindor and Santana with Ramirez to follow. He should be in line for a good season. 

Is he hitting there though? Every time I've been looking at ST boxscores, I see him batting 7th a lot with Cesar Hernandez usually hitting 2nd between Lindor/Ramirez

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6 minutes ago, Blood Brother said:

Is he hitting there though? Every time I've been looking at ST boxscores, I see him batting 7th a lot with Cesar Hernandez usually hitting 2nd between Lindor/Ramirez


Weird. I hadn’t noticed that. Rotochamp has him hitting 2nd but they’re not always on point. It’s telling that he’s hitting 6th or 7th in the spring. Hopefully if that sticks to begin the year he can work his way up. I definitely like his speed more than Cesar at the top of that lineup but Cesar has a better obp throughout his career than what Mercado displayed at times last year. 

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