Motown_Magic

Mike Boone 2019 Outlook

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1 hour ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Anyone else just sad about flexing this guy and needing points on Monday night football only to come up short, and painfully short, when the second half started and he was benched? I just want to know what was wrong with our process of expecting flex numbers 

I survived the Boone disaster despite sitting Diggs.  But I just needed a floor of 3 points, and luckily I scraped by.  My process for choosing Boone was that I needed guaranteed touches.  Diggs and Thielen could have busted given the fact that overrated Cousins never shows up when the lights come on.  And as it turns out, Thielen was a major bust, it's just likely that nobody was relying on him.

I think it's a cautionary tale.  3rd string RBs are 3rd string for a reason.  I think it's also a reminder that when everybody is so in agreement about a guy, that just maybe it might not turn out to be true.  Adam Schefter Matthew Berry, etc. - all those guys said that Boone was going to get workload touches and would be an easy RB2.  I remember asking about Abdullah earlier in the week somewhere and people were responding that he was a nobody and there as no need to worry.  Obviously the Vikings coaches saw it differently.

We all are looking for that Tim Hightower to win us the ship.  It would have been a great story.  But it doesn't happen more often than not.

I feel bad for those people that sat Aaron Jones for Mike Boone.  That will be tough to sit with for an entire offseason.

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11 minutes ago, CooL said:

I feel bad for those people that sat Aaron Jones for Mike Boone

Yikes. There’s no rational explanation anyone can make for doing that. 

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3 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Yikes. There’s no rational explanation anyone can make for doing that. 

Oh you’d be surprised. Listened for an hour yesterday to one of the fantasy shows and caller after caller was asking this question. Yes, ridiculous. Aaron Jones is set and forget.

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29 minutes ago, CooL said:

I survived the Boone disaster despite sitting Diggs.  But I just needed a floor of 3 points, and luckily I scraped by.  My process for choosing Boone was that I needed guaranteed touches.  Diggs and Thielen could have busted given the fact that overrated Cousins never shows up when the lights come on.  And as it turns out, Thielen was a major bust, it's just likely that nobody was relying on him.

I think it's a cautionary tale.  3rd string RBs are 3rd string for a reason.  I think it's also a reminder that when everybody is so in agreement about a guy, that just maybe it might not turn out to be true.  Adam Schefter Matthew Berry, etc. - all those guys said that Boone was going to get workload touches and would be an easy RB2.  I remember asking about Abdullah earlier in the week somewhere and people were responding that he was a nobody and there as no need to worry.  Obviously the Vikings coaches saw it differently.

We all are looking for that Tim Hightower to win us the ship.  It would have been a great story.  But it doesn't happen more often than not.

I feel bad for those people that sat Aaron Jones for Mike Boone.  That will be tough to sit with for an entire offseason.

 

Good perspective. Thanks. Doesn't make it any easier to lose by 3 points when all you needed were a few. But I can easily blame the rest of my team. These things that sting will ultimately make us better in the long run. Just wish it wasn't during week 16 when it matters the most. It's a long off-season- maybe need to stay away from the forums for a while

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38 minutes ago, CooL said:

Oh you’d be surprised. Listened for an hour yesterday to one of the fantasy shows and caller after caller was asking this question. Yes, ridiculous. Aaron Jones is set and forget.

I have no sympathy for anyone that actually did that lol. There’s cute, and then there’s idiotic. Benching a top 5 RB championship week for a largely unknown 3rd string rb falls into the latter category. 

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2 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I have no sympathy for anyone that actually did that lol. There’s cute, and then there’s idiotic. Benching a top 5 RB championship week for a largely unknown 3rd string rb falls into the latter category. 

 

Easy to say in hindsight, but the rationale isn't that hard to understand. 

A Jones has had multiple 4 point games this year, very TD dependent and had suspect usage going into the game, splitting a lot with J Williams. He was also playing a solid defense. Yeah he can blow up in any game too, but no floor. 

M Boone--or at least someone could have rationalized----had a higher floor----everyone was saying at least 70 yards and a TD. Lead back against a weak run defense in an offense that prioritizes the run, at least on paper. 

The floor is why that type of decision could easily have been rationalized.

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21 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

 

Easy to say in hindsight, but the rationale isn't that hard to understand. 

A Jones has had multiple 4 point games this year, very TD dependent and had suspect usage going into the game, splitting a lot with J Williams. He was also playing a solid defense. Yeah he can blow up in any game too, but no floor. 

M Boone--or at least someone could have rationalized----had a higher floor----everyone was saying at least 70 yards and a TD. Lead back against a weak run defense in an offense that prioritizes the run, at least on paper. 

The floor is why that type of decision could easily have been rationalized.

 

So let me get this straight. We’re talking THE Aaron Jones that’s coming off 26 and 17 standard fantasy points in his last two games. THE Aaron Jones that was tied for the league lead in rushing TD’s. THE Aaron Jones that was going up a defense that has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to RB’s in the last 5 games. THE Aaron Jones for a 3rd string back making his first start against a Green Bay defense that is 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB’s in last 5 games. That guy???

 

Mmmmmmmm.....Ok. 

Edited by Sonny_D
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8 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

So let me get this straight. We’re talking THE Aaron Jones that’s coming off 26 and 17 standard fantasy points in his last two games. THE Aaron Jones that was tied for the league lead in rushing TD’s. THE Aaron Jones that was going up a defense that has given up the 3rd most fantasy points to RB’s in the last 5 games. THE Aaron Jones for a 3rd string back making his first start against a Green Bay defense that is 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB’s in last 5 games. That guy???

 

Mmmmmmmm.....Ok. 

 

MMMM ok ...spin the stats however you want. Does he have a floor or not ?

Same AJ that had one game above 5 points after week 8 going into the playoffs ?

Same AJ that hadn't had over 13 rushing attempts in a game since week 5? 

Same AJ that had one catch between weeks 9 and 12 and was losing passing share to J Williams ?

Same AJ that had played on the road 6 times going into the game and garnered 4 utter duds (less than 5 in ppr) ?

Yeah that AJ. What is his floor ? Again not hard to understand.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

 

MMMM ok ...spin the stats however you want. Does he have a floor or not ?

Same AJ that had one game above 5 points after week 8 going into the playoffs ?

Same AJ that hadn't had over 13 rushing attempts in a game since week 5? 

Same AJ that had one catch between weeks 9 and 12 and was losing passing share to J Williams ?

Same AJ that had played on the road 6 times going into the game and garnered 4 utter duds (less than 5 in ppr) ?

Yeah that AJ. What is his floor ? Again not hard to understand.

 

 

And what is Boone's floor? Jones was leading the league in rush TD's.

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LOL easy to ask what his floor was in hindsight (Boone). 

What did every expert under the sun say his floor was going into the game ??

Edited by ukdesi

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12 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

LOL easy to ask what his floor was in hindsight (Boone). 

What did every expert under the sun say his floor was going into the game ??

 

And there’s the problem. Some people follow the “experts”. 

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26 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

 

MMMM ok ...spin the stats however you want. Does he have a floor or not ?

Same AJ that had one game above 5 points after week 8 going into the playoffs ?

Same AJ that hadn't had over 13 rushing attempts in a game since week 5? 

Same AJ that had one catch between weeks 9 and 12 and was losing passing share to J Williams ?

Same AJ that had played on the road 6 times going into the game and garnered 4 utter duds (less than 5 in ppr) ?

Yeah that AJ. What is his floor ? Again not hard to understand.

 

 

 

Does he have a floor or not? Every player has a floor. Not sure how that factors into this. Especially when you’re trying to compare it to someone with an unknown floor. 

As far as your other stats, you have to factor in efficiency and what players do with the volume given. AJ obviously doesn’t need the volume to be a fantasy beast. Plus, I look at recency when I evaluate matchups/trends. For example,  I don’t care if a defense is ranked 6th in most fantasy points allowed when over the last 3-5 weeks they may be ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed. If they’re playing better recently, that’s what really matters. 

But hey, to each his own. I just don’t get how anyone can bench the #2 RB in standard, with the recent stats/trends I provided, for a complete unknown. 

Edited by Sonny_D
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Just now, Sonny_D said:

 

And there’s the problem. Some people follow the “experts”. 

 

You ever picked up a FA and just rolled with him after 1-2 game sample size ? Like say D. Washington.....who had a pretty good one game sample size from a couple weekends ago, not all that dissimilar to M Boone, and ended up with another good game this past weekend. Unless you have time to watch every single game and do your own evaluations, sometimes you go with experts. Upon watching the game last night, Boone didn't pass the eye test to me. I didn't see what he looked like in the prior game though.

 

 

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1 minute ago, ukdesi said:

 

You ever picked up a FA and just rolled with him after 1-2 game sample size ? Like say D. Washington.....who had a pretty good one game sample size from a couple weekends ago, not all that dissimilar to M Boone, and ended up with another good game this past weekend. Unless you have time to watch every single game and do your own evaluations, sometimes you go with experts. Upon watching the game last night, Boone didn't pass the eye test to me. I didn't see what he looked like in the prior game though.

 

 

 

I picked up D. Washington and he helped with the Chip. I picked up AJ Brown later in the season for his playoff matchups and he was THE reason I won. I also picked up Higbee who was also a HUGE factor. But I’d like to think I had some sort of plan. Now, Washington I liked b/c for one, he did it once already filling in for Jacobs. And two, he was going up against a team that’s mailed it in. I had my choice between Washington and Boone. I chose the former. 

Anyway, I don’t want to turn this into a class about FF. A lot of it is definitely luck. But this isn’t a debate of Washington or Boone. This was a debate of Boone or Aaron Jones. Again, makes absolutely no sense to me. 

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6 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

 

You ever picked up a FA and just rolled with him after 1-2 game sample size ? Like say D. Washington.....who had a pretty good one game sample size from a couple weekends ago, not all that dissimilar to M Boone, and ended up with another good game this past weekend. Unless you have time to watch every single game and do your own evaluations, sometimes you go with experts. Upon watching the game last night, Boone didn't pass the eye test to me. I didn't see what he looked like in the prior game though.

 

 

 

Oh and another thing I didn’t mention. I look at game situation when I analyze results. I don’t just look at the boxscore. While Boone’s small sample size was good, he did it against a defense and a team that already mailed it in for the day and the year. Abdullah isn’t very good. But even he had a 5 YPC against the Chargers that game. 

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16 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

Does he have a floor or not? Every player has a floor. Not sure how that factors into this. Especially when you’re trying to compare it to someone with an unknown floor. 

As far as your other stats, you have to factor in efficiency and what players do with the volume given. AJ obviously doesn’t need the volume to be a fantasy beast. Plus, I look at recency when I evaluate matchups/trends. For example,  I don’t care if a defense is ranked 6th in most fantasy points allowed when over the last 3-5 weeks they may be ranked 25th in fantasy points allowed. If they’re playing better recently, that’s what really matters. 

But hey, to each his own. I just don’t get how anyone can bench the #2 RB in standard, with the recent stats/trends for a complete unknown. 

 

It factors into it....if you are trying to make a decision based on a floor.

Boone conceivably had a higher floor because he was the lead back for a strong rushing team with a better matchup. And A Jones has proven time and time again that he is very capable of < 5 point games. The expert consensus seemed to be that Boone was a really good back, as many experts had him finishing as a top 15 back or higher.

Regarding recency, I don't disagree with anything you're saying--I'm just pointing out the rationale that could have been used to play Boone over Jones. And to the point of recency, the Vikings defense did hold M Gordon and A Ekeler combined to under 15 points just the prior week.

If you want to get into the nuances of analyzing a one game sample size and determining its worth, fair enough. Sounds like you've never made a bad decision--so good on ya for that.

Edited by ukdesi

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2 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

 

It factors into it....if you are trying to make a decision based on a floor.

Boone conceivably had a higher floor because he was the lead back for a strong rushing team with a better matchup. The expert consensus seemed to be that Boone was a really good back, as many experts had him finishing as a top 15 back or higher.

Regarding recency, I don't disagree with anything you're saying--I'm just pointing out the rationale that could have been used to play Boone over Jones. And to the point of recency, the Vikings defense did hold M Gordon and A Ekeler combined to under 15 points just the prior week.

 

But Boone didn’t have a better matchup. I’ve provided recent stats for both defenses over the last 5. For one, the Chargers are garbage, already mailed it in. Even so, the fact that they held Gordon/Eckler to pedestrian production yet have STILL allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to RB’s over the last 5 is even more reason to know they’re trending downward in a bad way. Then you factor in the whole Cousins on Monday night narrative and they were destined to fail. 

Anyway, won an additional 3 units on Green Bay last night. I thought +4.5 was absurd considering the stats I analyzed. 

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2 hours ago, ukdesi said:

LOL easy to ask what his floor was in hindsight (Boone). 

What did every expert under the sun say his floor was going into the game ??

If experts were telling you to start Boone over AJ this week, I'd find a different podcast.  

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18 hours ago, devaster said:

I don't think you are keeping it 100 though...


How so? MIN offensive game plan was horrible. And their offensive line play was atrocious.

not going to get many great runs when GB is literally running through Vikings OL. 

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Boone should have been seen exclusively as a desperation play. I can't deny being tempted to bench Ekeler for him and was wishing I had after Ekeler only put up 6 and change in standard. Then Boone actually played and once again reinforced the basic fantasy axiom: dance with who brung you.

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8 hours ago, CooL said:

I survived the Boone disaster despite sitting Diggs.  But I just needed a floor of 3 points, and luckily I scraped by.  My process for choosing Boone was that I needed guaranteed touches.  Diggs and Thielen could have busted given the fact that overrated Cousins never shows up when the lights come on.  And as it turns out, Thielen was a major bust, it's just likely that nobody was relying on him.

I think it's a cautionary tale.  3rd string RBs are 3rd string for a reason.  I think it's also a reminder that when everybody is so in agreement about a guy, that just maybe it might not turn out to be true.  Adam Schefter Matthew Berry, etc. - all those guys said that Boone was going to get workload touches and would be an easy RB2.  I remember asking about Abdullah earlier in the week somewhere and people were responding that he was a nobody and there as no need to worry.  Obviously the Vikings coaches saw it differently.

We all are looking for that Tim Hightower to win us the ship.  It would have been a great story.  But it doesn't happen more often than not.

I feel bad for those people that sat Aaron Jones for Mike Boone.  That will be tough to sit with for an entire offseason.

Anyone that sat Jones deserves to lose. Anyone starting Boone should of been in RB trouble not have superstar options

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1 hour ago, JoeJoe88 said:

If experts were telling you to start Boone over AJ this week, I'd find a different podcast.  

Lol sure thing — tons of experts had him in the top 15 - what was jones top 12 or so ? Pretty similar 

 

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I won even though I started him so this isn't just me complaining about him. He simply did not look good. When there was a hole he ran into a defender that was being blocked. Then when there was nothing he tried to force it. Good reminder that a 3rd string running back is probably a 3rd string running back for a reason. Hopefully we all learned our lesson getting cute in the finals.

Footballguys.com was hyping this guy up all week. At one point on the weekly Audible podcast the two hosts started to attack other fantasy analysts and they said that this is why you have to listen to Footballguys because they know about people like Mike Boone and they know for a fact he's a league winner because they watch the preseason and they watch the college tape. Tough look for them for sure.

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1 hour ago, mattlol said:

I won even though I started him so this isn't just me complaining about him. He simply did not look good. When there was a hole he ran into a defender that was being blocked. Then when there was nothing he tried to force it. Good reminder that a 3rd string running back is probably a 3rd string running back for a reason. Hopefully we all learned our lesson getting cute in the finals.

Footballguys.com was hyping this guy up all week. At one point on the weekly Audible podcast the two hosts started to attack other fantasy analysts and they said that this is why you have to listen to Footballguys because they know about people like Mike Boone and they know for a fact he's a league winner because they watch the preseason and they watch the college tape. Tough look for them for sure.

I can understand the hype. He just scored 17 points standard just last week against a comparable defense. Obviously the Vikes were on the wrong side of the blowout this time. I do think a lot of that is attributable to their own crappy game plan offensively. They didn't look like they knew quite what to do against a team they allegedly know quite well. 

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2 hours ago, Eaglesflyhigh11 said:

Anyone that sat Jones deserves to lose. Anyone starting Boone should of been in RB trouble not have superstar options

On this show, the expert said Jones very time. Yet people kept calling and asking. But you have to remember that Jones season, although remarkable, wasn’t consistent. We aren’t the ones who owned him and had to sit through his disastrous weeks. So it’s the actual Jones owners that are calling in for advice, not us sitting from the outside. Easy for us to laugh at even raising the question but again we are not walking in those guys’ shoes.

Was it Evan Silva that tweeted something like “this is why we watch preseason tape...it’s to win yiu championships”. If it wasn’t Silva, it was some well know fantasy expert. 

Im going to try to do a better job of tuning out the noise next season and listen to my own gut. 

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