murraygd13

2020 Offseason Closer Thread

Recommended Posts

9 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

Everyone is betting on Nick Anderson but despite his amazing performance he got zero (0) save chances last year.  On the other hand, Castillo and Alvarado both got many opps and both have filthy stuff.  I love Anderson as a guy to add Ks and bring down ratios, but betting on him being the closer in TB is the definition of chasing saves.  A guy like Betances could return Anderson K/ERA/WHIP and is basically free in almost all leagues.

I kind of get the opposite feeling that everyone is expecting committee..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Behold! Wade Davis has been named closer!

 
(4 mins ago) Davis will be the Rockies' closer to start the year, Nick Groke of The Athletic reports.

Nearly every dedicated closer is at least a moderately valuable fantasy asset, but Davis has a good case to be the worst bet out there. The 34-year-old deservedly lost his closing job last season as his ERA ballooned to 8.65. There's undoubtedly some bad luck in that figure, but his 5.56 FIP suggests his season was indeed quite poor, as his strikeout rate plummeted to 20.4 percent while his walk rate soared to 14.1 percent. Scott Oberg, who took over the role in the second half before suffering a season-ending injury, will be the primary setup man for now but has a good chance of returning to the ninth inning unless Davis experiences a major turnaround.

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Oberg is much better, but not shockingly Black gonna stick with the cagey vet as long as he can

 

Davis shouldn't even be playing baseball. He's going to get absolutely hammered... again. The dude had a 5.56 FIP and a 1.875 WHIP last season. Horrendously bad. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Oberg is much better, but not shockingly Black gonna stick with the cagey vet as long as he can

 

And people expect Hilliard to start over Ian Desmond in this organization?

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Davis shouldn't even be playing baseball. He's going to get absolutely hammered... again. The dude had a 5.56 FIP and a 1.875 WHIP last season. Horrendously bad. 

Are they trying to build up his trade value?  See no other reason for them to name him closer, he's horrible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, svdude said:

Are they trying to build up his trade value?  See no other reason for them to name him closer, he's horrible.


Accumulating saves isn’t going to increase his trade value by itself. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's hard to believe that Davis was 3.65/1.05 in Coors and led the league in saves just two years ago. I'm sure he will be a catastrophe, but maybe he'll start hot/lucky out of the gate like Holland last year and you can deal him to some poor bastard before he torches your ratios

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, JameisofThrones said:

It's hard to believe that Davis was 3.65/1.05 in Coors and led the league in saves just two years ago. I'm sure he will be a catastrophe, but maybe he'll start hot/lucky out of the gate like Holland last year and you can deal him to some poor bastard before he torches your ratios

 

E4EE345F-CEA7-4BAD-BD5E-18DAE2A2125E.jpeg

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Accumulating saves isn’t going to increase his trade value by itself. 

I agree, but teams seem to think it does.  I can't think of any other reason why they would put him in that position (unless they are trying to outright tank!  =))

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, svdude said:

I agree, but teams seem to think it does.  I can't think of any other reason why they would put him in that position (unless they are trying to outright tank!  =))


Maybe they are, lol. Sure feels like a trainwreck a-comin. Lol. 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's as simple as Davis making $17M this season and they have no choice but to throw him out there. Obviously the odds of it ending well are very long.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How often does a non Fernando Rodney older reliever get drilled one year only to come back and do a solid job the next?

I want to say Davis was playing hurt last season.  He could also just be cooked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, kidtwentytwo said:

How often does a non Fernando Rodney older reliever get drilled one year only to come back and do a solid job the next?

I want to say Davis was playing hurt last season.  He could also just be cooked.

Jim Johnson 2017 to 2018?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/11/2020 at 2:49 AM, kidtwentytwo said:

So...

Giants, Marlins, Orioles, Mariners, and ill throw in the pirates.

any guesses there?  

KELA Just named Pirates closer.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Workman really scares me. He walked way too many batters and has been mediocre his whole career until last year. There's no way he keeps up that hit rate he had last year. And the Red Sox have multiple internal options that could step up, so I doubt there's a long leash here.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kela's been good every year when he's been on the field. Of course, injuries and off the field probs are baggage. Might be good for 25+ saves with good ratios. Higher upside than most bottom tier closers and at least he starts out as the guy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

Workman really scares me. He walked way too many batters and has been mediocre his whole career until last year. There's no way he keeps up that hit rate he had last year. And the Red Sox have multiple internal options that could step up, so I doubt there's a long leash here.

Multiple internal options? Really?  Who?  And please don't say Barnes.  He is way better in the set-up role.  Doesn't have the make-up to be a closer.

Workman had 104 K's in 71.2 innings with a 1.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP last season.  He isn't going to lose his job any time soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Multiple internal options? Really?  Who?  And please don't say Barnes.  He is way better in the set-up role.  Doesn't have the make-up to be a closer.

Workman had 104 K's in 71.2 innings with a 1.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP last season.  He isn't going to lose his job any time soon.

Josh Taylor?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Multiple internal options? Really?  Who?  And please don't say Barnes.  He is way better in the set-up role.  Doesn't have the make-up to be a closer.

Workman had 104 K's in 71.2 innings with a 1.88 ERA and a 1.03 WHIP last season.  He isn't going to lose his job any time soon.

 

They have plenty of guys with potential that could step up is what I'm saying. If Barnes makes some improvements he can easily be an average MLB closer. Same with guys like Walden, Brasier, and Taylor. Workman is the clear favorite but I could easily see a scenario where one or two of those guys get off to a nice start and put pressure on Workman.

But my concerns are more with Workman rather than the competition. There's essentially no chance he can repeat his 2019 numbers. He was insanely lucky. He registered a .209 BABIP against and a 2.6% HR / FB. This is not supported by the quality of contact, has he actually registered his highest percentage of hard hit % in his career in 2019. He also had a 9% decrease in soft hit % from 2018. Career lows in IFH% and IFFB% as well. All of this along with career high in walk rate of 15.7% (!). Its honestly amazing he had his best year when under the hood he had a pretty dreadful year. The main improvements he made were inducing more ground balls and increasing his strikeout percentages, which are nice improvements, but in no way offset all of the other luck he enjoyed.

Steamer projects him for a 1.32 WHIP and 3.90 ERA, which is exactly where I'd put him. On Yahoo he's being selected as the #10 closer which seems ridiculous to me.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Workman's contact rate on pitches inside the zone(83.9) and SwStr(12.7) are rather mediocre and close to league average. He had an elevated K% by willing to waste pitches until he got them to chase. Letting them walk. Don't get me wrong, his approach was very savy with his pitch mix. Sometimes sneaking in a fastball after throwing lots of curves. It worked wonders last year. Made him un-hitable so the walks didn't matter. 

I just come away wondering what the shelf life is this type of approach. When you don't really have the elite stuff to challenge hitters. As they get better at figuring out your game plan.

Edited by Slatykamora

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Workman is currently being drafted in the middle of a big clump of closers from ~#130 to ~#170.  In forty picks we see the likes of Giles, Kimbrel, Smith, Iglesias, Colome, Robles, Workman, and Leclerc go off the board.  Pagan, Bradley, Cmart, Kennedy, and Doolittle go in the next thirty picks.  (Doolittle looks like good value here btw).

I think Workman belongs in the latter bunch alongside a guy like Bradley or Kennedy.  As others have mentioned he has a ton of issues that make me very unconvinced he will repeat.  I'd much rather grab Giles, Kimbrel, Robles, or Leclerc.  If I missed on all these guys I'd go for super secure mid-RPs (N Anderson, Gallegos, Pressly, Lugo) instead of chasing saves with crappy ratios.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...