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Vladimir Guerrero Jr 2020 Outlook

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He’s been a 115 wRC+ hitter (15% above average) as a 20 and 21 year-old. He seems to be holding his own very well, and I’m really not sure what the expectations are. Yes, he is not Juan Soto or Mike Trout. But those are the exceptions to the rule. No one is.

Based on his MiLB batting profile, I still expect some .310+/40+ HR in his future. Will that happen at 22? Not sure. But I’m fairly confident he will be a 140+ wRC+ hitter before long. 

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He cut down on the Ks but actually hit GBs at a higher clip this year.

 

Someone get this guy to talk to JD Martinez or Josh Donaldson so he can join the flyball revolution.

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I don’t know what you’re referencing, but the profile looks incredible to me. He’s one adjustment away (launch angle) from being a superstar bat. 

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He is a safe pick at his ADP whatever it will be.

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As another poster said - and many have said for some time now - if he can fix his launch angle he will unlock his potential. His launch angle was 4.6. While that's very low, some other interesting names nearby are: Soto (also 4.6), Eloy (5.7), Yelich (7.1), Tatis (8.7)

 

Positive signs (2020 compared to 2019):

  • K% down to 15.6% from 17.7%
  • ISO up to .199 from .162
  • Hard hit% up to 50.8% from 38.1%
  • Exit Velocity 92.5 mph (12th highest)
  • IFFB% 5.9% down from 14.5%

 

Negative signs:

  • Launch angle decreased 6.6 to 4.6
  • GB% up to 54.6% from 49.6%

 

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