brockpapersizer

Yordan Alvarez 2020 Outlook

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16 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Khristopher Davis? Man that looks weird. 

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I expect that ADP to rise into the mid-20's or so. People absolutely love jumping on the next young superstar

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I feel like for players playing less than that a full year, the position eligibility should be prorated. So for Alvarez, he played 10/74 games in left field. Prorated to 162 games that is 22 games. 

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On 12/25/2019 at 1:53 AM, bluefrogguy said:

I feel like for players playing less than that a full year, the position eligibility should be prorated. So for Alvarez, he played 10/74 games in left field. Prorated to 162 games that is 22 games. 

That sounds very reasonable. But, you realize that probably makes too much sense for ESPN, and they may have trouble with the math too.

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On 12/24/2019 at 10:53 PM, bluefrogguy said:

I feel like for players playing less than that a full year, the position eligibility should be prorated. So for Alvarez, he played 10/74 games in left field. Prorated to 162 games that is 22 games. 

 

16 hours ago, BCMarch10 said:

That sounds very reasonable. But, you realize that probably makes too much sense for ESPN, and they may have trouble with the math too.

 

I disagree. You should have to earn the position by playing the games. If it's a position that the player will be playing primarily the next year, they will earn it quickly.

 

The one counter I do see is minor leaguers get position elliigiblilty   based on what they playedin the minors the previous year (different platform different minor league position rules). Anyway it might make sense to use minor league games combined with major leagues games for players who split their season in both. I only think this because all platforms give minor league players a position anyway. Why should Jo Addell or whoever start with OF elliigiblilty with 0 games played at the position in the majors and not Yordan, even though Yordan played a bunch of games at OF in AAA.

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On 12/27/2019 at 11:06 AM, brockpapersizer said:

The one counter I do see is minor leaguers get position eligiblilty based on what they played in the minors the previous year (different platform different minor league position rules). Anyway it might make sense to use minor league games combined with major leagues games for players who split their season in both. I only think this because all platforms give minor league players a position anyway. Why should Jo Addell or whoever start with OF elliigiblilty with 0 games played at the position in the majors and not Yordan, even though Yordan played a bunch of games at OF in AAA.

Yeah, there isn't enough consistency for first year players (or players with less than 1 year full service) on how eligibility is determined, and that's what we're talking about here. But, I don't have Alvarez on my team so it's no skin off my chin if he only gets UTIL to start next year. I just think bluefrogguy made a really good suggestion that makes some good sense. I think it would be better off having a hard n fast rule, rather than letting some administrator just making a decision in the backroom based on some subjective thinking.

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Yordan has a MLB track record of poor defense. God invented the Util spot for guys like Yordan and Ortiz who can't field a lick. I remember when Wil Myers had some catcher games in the minors and Yahoo had him with a Catcher tag in preseason. They took it away before the season started since he was an outfielder. I used to win leagues in the old days when josh Phelps and the Hammer had a Catching tag playing real positions.

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On 12/24/2019 at 12:33 PM, cs3 said:

I expect that ADP to rise into the mid-20's or so. People absolutely love jumping on the next young superstar

That's a bit rich for my taste. I've seen FTJ in that area and I wouldn't touch him there, despite the accepted notion that he's the higher value player this coming season. Both have sky-high ceilings but both are candidates to really slip production-wise in 2020. Half a season is not enough to convince me that anyone is a second round pick.

I have both dudes ranked in the 40s, FWIW. Guess I'll be missing out on the fun this year, unless there's a little adp course correction by the time I draft. I suspect there won't be with Tatis, but maybe with Yordan.

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so what kind of projections do we have for this guy in 2020?

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25 minutes ago, jimbo504 said:

so what kind of projections do we have for this guy in 2020?

 

fangraphs has projections from streamer and depth charts.39 HR each, 96/93 RBI.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yordan-alvarez/19556/stats?position=DH

 

baseball-reference has projections, 24 HR, 71 RBI.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvaryo01.shtml

 

rotochamp says 42 HR, 115 RBI.

https://www.rotochamp.com/Baseball/Player.aspx?MLBAMID=670541

 

 

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27 minutes ago, SpecialFNK said:

 

fangraphs has projections from streamer and depth charts.39 HR each, 96/93 RBI.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/yordan-alvarez/19556/stats?position=DH

 

baseball-reference has projections, 24 HR, 71 RBI.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alvaryo01.shtml

 

rotochamp says 42 HR, 115 RBI.

https://www.rotochamp.com/Baseball/Player.aspx?MLBAMID=670541

 

 

Wow...kind of all over the place. Were this a weather forecast for a major winter storm, could get anywhere from 2 to 24 inches of snow.😂

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2 hours ago, charger_ss24 said:

Wow...kind of all over the place. Were this a weather forecast for a major winter storm, could get anywhere from 2 to 24 inches of snow.😂


Nah, more like 16-24 inches of snow. Zips has him for .287/.370/.564 85/35/107. Baseball reference isn’t really in the forecasting business. 

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11 hours ago, Sonny_D said:


Nah, more like 16-24 inches of snow. Zips has him for .287/.370/.564 85/35/107. Baseball reference isn’t really in the forecasting business. 

This seems about right IMO

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On 1/11/2020 at 1:10 PM, Sonny_D said:


[...] 287/.370/.564 85/35/107. 

 

On 1/12/2020 at 12:57 AM, hockeyfan77 said:

This seems about right IMO

I'm curious about predictions for the entire season,  not just the first half.

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24 minutes ago, Overlord said:

 

I'm curious about predictions for the entire season,  not just the first half.

 

This guy gets it #AirYordan2k20

Edited by kmoore1521
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I can't help but wonder if his stats were effected by potentially having stolen pitcher/catcher signs. The Astros claimed to stop recording in 2019...but can you really believe that? 

 

Before someone jumps down my throat...I'm not taking anything away from Yordan and his talent. Just bringing up the question.

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2 minutes ago, blinkfan77 said:

I can't help but wonder if his stats were effected by potentially having stolen pitcher/catcher signs. The Astros claimed to stop recording in 2019...but can you really believe that? 

 

Before someone jumps down my throat...I'm not taking anything away from Yordan and his talent. Just bringing up the question.


Unless they were doing it in the minors as well, I wouldn’t worry about it. 

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28 minutes ago, blinkfan77 said:

I can't help but wonder if his stats were effected by potentially having stolen pitcher/catcher signs. The Astros claimed to stop recording in 2019...but can you really believe that? 

 

Before someone jumps down my throat...I'm not taking anything away from Yordan and his talent. Just bringing up the question.

 

Was slight better at home but had a near 1.000 road OPS

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Astro's sign stealing had diminished returns by 2019. Other teams had a clue by then.

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5 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Astro's sign stealing had diminished returns by 2019. Other teams had a clue by then.

 

I think MLB put an employee in their video room.  

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