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Way too early 2020 rankings

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13 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

LOL sure thing. An aspect of data science is to simplify things down to a practical and usable level. Stating 12.83 as a bust rate seems arbitrary. What's the difference between 12.7 and 12.9 for example ? One is a bust and one isn't ? 

In practical terms.....Hopkins provided 25 more points than did A Jones in their worst 5 games-- ~ 5 points a game and that can often be the difference in winning and losing. A guy like Fournette provided 30 more points than did A Jones in their worst 5 games ~ 6 points a game. 

Again a very practical way of understanding the difference in their floors.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It isn’t really arbitrary though. It’s years of data compiled to come up with statistical averages which allows us to then value player performances and create reference points. Using these these types of statistics is how you come up with 12.83 and such. In simpler terms, you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere don’t you? 

Now, if you choose to say 12.70 is close enough to not warrant a “bust” designation then that’s totally up to you. You can interpret the data any way you’d like. However the numbers are the numbers. They don’t lie. 

Furthermore, if you’d like to apply the same value of say 10 for a bust factor in PPR, to both RB’s and WR’s, even though WR’s actually catch passes and there are more of them, then that’s totally up to you as well. The fact of the matter is, using historical statistical data and analysis we can come up with exact numbers that help identify trends and production. You know, like the trends I provided for you in the Boone thread......😉

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19 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

In practical terms.....Hopkins provided 25 more points than did A Jones in their worst 5 games-- ~ 5 points a game and that can often be the difference in winning and losing. A guy like Fournette provided 30 more points than did A Jones in their worst 5 games ~ 6 points a game. 

 

I haven’t checked your numbers but I’ll assume they’re correct. So you’re going to argue that Hopkins had 25 more points (~5 per week) in their worst 5 WITHOUT acknowledging that Jones had 51 more points (~10 per week) in their best 5? And somehow that 10 points can’t be the difference between winning and losing? Lol. It just doesn’t work that way man. 

That’s why it is important, and why I provided an OVERALL consistency metric earlier, because we just don’t know what weeks guys will under perform or over perform. Analyzing the entire data set, however, is more important. 

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3 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

It isn’t really arbitrary though. It’s years of data compiled to come up with statistical averages which allows us to then value player performances and create reference points. Using these these types of statistics is how you come up with 12.83 and such. In simpler terms, you have to draw a line in the sand somewhere don’t you? 

Now, if you choose to say 12.70 is close enough to not warrant a “bust” designation then that’s totally up to you. You can interpret the data any way you’d like. However the numbers are the numbers. They don’t lie. 

Furthermore, if you’d like to apply the same value of say 10 for a bust factor in PPR, to both RB’s and WR’s, even though WR’s actually catch passes and there are more of them, then that’s totally up to you as well. The fact of the matter is, using historical statistical data and analysis we can come up with exact numbers that help identify trends and production. You know, like the trends I provided for you in the Boone thread......😉

 

Yeah in discussing this, rather than draw a line in the sand somewhere, I think looking at it the way I stated above is an easy way to understand the difference in floors, practically speaking.

A quick glance through the top 30 scorers (WR/RB/TE), I only see 2 players that had a worse bottom 5 than A Jones---T Lockett and A Cooper. All this to say what we all know---his upside is phenomenal and his downside sucks.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sonny_D said:

 

I haven’t checked your numbers but I’ll assume they’re correct. So you’re going to argue that Hopkins had 25 more points (~5 per week) in their worst 5 WITHOUT acknowledging that Jones had 51 more points (~10 per week) in their best 5? And somehow that 10 points can’t be the difference between winning and losing? Lol. It just doesn’t work that way man. 

That’s why it is important, and why I provided an OVERALL consistency metric earlier, because we just don’t know what weeks guys will under perform or over perform. Analyzing the entire data set, however, is more important. 

I have only been saying one thing this entire time---A Jones has no floor. That is the only point I've been making. 

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1 minute ago, ukdesi said:

 

Yeah in discussing this, rather than draw a line in the sand somewhere, I think looking at it the way I stated above is an easy way to understand the difference in floors, practically speaking.

A quick glance through the top 30 scorers (WR/RB/TE), I only see 2 players that had a worse bottom 5 than A Jones---T Lockett and A Cooper. All this to say what we all know---his upside is phenomenal and his downside sucks.

 

 

 

See my post just above regarding this. Anyway, funny thing is I won my championship with Lockett on my team. The guy I played against? Aaron Jones. Lol 

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2 minutes ago, ukdesi said:

I have only been saying one thing this entire time---A Jones has no floor. That is the only point I've been making. 

 

Like I said, everyone chooses to analyze data in different ways. Nothing wrong with that and to each his own. 

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Daniel Jones top 10 QB next year if giants poo poo defense does not improve.

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Full PPR

 

1. CMC- Has to be, I am weary of his touches and no clear handcuff, but he’s basically a rb1 and wr 1 and the offense will revolve around him. 

2. Saquon- Things started to click at the end,  I am a believer in the talent still will get tons of touches and this offense has talent with a great line. Slowed by injury. Big bounce back season.

3. Zeke- A warrior still ate, clear handcuff, great for ppr.

4. Thomas- As long as brees is back, consistent ppr beast.

5.  Kamara- Similar to saquon hobbled by injuries and he does lose touches to latavious, but the man would of caught 90-100 balls this year if he didn’t miss two games. Safe in full ppr, big upside and I think you can get him later due to a down year.

6. Hopkins-  decent year safe, Watson is a great qb and he is great.

7. Adams- Rodgers great qb, slowed down by injury, but dude is a stud on a great team huge upside. See last game for the norm for Adams.

8. Tyreek Hill- Number 1 option on a mahommes Reid team, little more boom or bust.

9. Julio- A bit inconsistent and injury to wrs gave him more targets at the end, but a week winner and safe.

10. Chubb- Only if hunt is gone

11. Cook- Only if he has a clear handcuff.

12. Fournette- Scares me a bit, will get a fat contract be sure to handcuff

13. Eckler- if rivers is back and no Gordon. Huge upside and at minimum 2019 Kamara if rivers is there, handcuff with Jackson. 

14. Kelce, huge position advantage gets you wr1 at your te spot and wrs are easy to find late.

15. Godwin- with Winston and arians.

16- Kittle- Was not a believer but the other wrs open things up for him. He’s basically Kelce all over.

17. Aarón Jones- Williams is a nuisance but he catches passes and is a red zone beast, may move him down because of likely to regression.

18. Amari Cooper- slowed down at the end but this guy is a beast.

19. Evans- weirdly inconsistent with the amount of targets he gets.

20. Sutton- Up and coming stud.

21.Keenan allen- basically a younger edelman.

22. Edelman- Getting old, but if healthy pencil in 100 catches.

23. Gurley- Solid player, but knee issues are scary handcuff.

24. Mixon- Turned a córner team should be better.

 

Just missed.

Boyd- I could see him doing well again, depends on the qb.

Lamar- QBs dime a dozen and running qbs don’t last see rg3, cam, etc. 

Devante- Depends on qb and on terrible team.

Ertz- Did well because eagles have no wrs.

Henry- Doesn’t catch passes

Mack- See Henry.

AJ Brown- Trendy pick, but tbh he looks slow to me and was shut down week 16.

 

Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell, AJ green, Melvin Gordon depend on situation.

 

 

 

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On 12/25/2019 at 8:20 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

Full PPR

 

1. CMC- Has to be, I am weary of his touches and no clear handcuff, but he’s basically a rb1 and wr 1 and the offense will revolve around him. 

2. Saquon- Things started to click at the end,  I am a believer in the talent still will get tons of touches and this offense has talent with a great line. Slowed by injury. Big bounce back season.

3. Zeke- A warrior still ate, clear handcuff, great for ppr.

4. Thomas- As long as brees is back, consistent ppr beast.

5.  Kamara- Similar to saquon hobbled by injuries and he does lose touches to latavious, but the man would of caught 90-100 balls this year if he didn’t miss two games. Safe in full ppr, big upside and I think you can get him later due to a down year.

6. Hopkins-  decent year safe, Watson is a great qb and he is great.

7. Adams- Rodgers great qb, slowed down by injury, but dude is a stud on a great team huge upside. See last game for the norm for Adams.

8. Tyreek Hill- Number 1 option on a mahommes Reid team, little more boom or bust.

9. Julio- A bit inconsistent and injury to wrs gave him more targets at the end, but a week winner and safe.

10. Chubb- Only if hunt is gone

11. Cook- Only if he has a clear handcuff.

12. Fournette- Scares me a bit, will get a fat contract be sure to handcuff

13. Eckler- if rivers is back and no Gordon. Huge upside and at minimum 2019 Kamara if rivers is there, handcuff with Jackson. 

14. Kelce, huge position advantage gets you wr1 at your te spot and wrs are easy to find late.

15. Godwin- with Winston and arians.

16- Kittle- Was not a believer but the other wrs open things up for him. He’s basically Kelce all over.

17. Aarón Jones- Williams is a nuisance but he catches passes and is a red zone beast, may move him down because of likely to regression.

18. Amari Cooper- slowed down at the end but this guy is a beast.

19. Evans- weirdly inconsistent with the amount of targets he gets.

20. Sutton- Up and coming stud.

21.Keenan allen- basically a younger edelman.

22. Edelman- Getting old, but if healthy pencil in 100 catches.

23. Gurley- Solid player, but knee issues are scary handcuff.

24. Mixon- Turned a córner team should be better.

 

Just missed.

Boyd- I could see him doing well again, depends on the qb.

Lamar- QBs dime a dozen and running qbs don’t last see rg3, cam, etc. 

Devante- Depends on qb and on terrible team.

Ertz- Did well because eagles have no wrs.

Henry- Doesn’t catch passes

Mack- See Henry.

AJ Brown- Trendy pick, but tbh he looks slow to me and was shut down week 16.

 

Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell, AJ green, Melvin Gordon depend on situation.

 

 

If Hunt goes somewhere else and grabs a starting gig , you can probably add him to this list

 

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On 12/25/2019 at 8:20 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

Full PPR

 

1. CMC- Has to be, I am weary of his touches and no clear handcuff, but he’s basically a rb1 and wr 1 and the offense will revolve around him. 

2. Saquon- Things started to click at the end,  I am a believer in the talent still will get tons of touches and this offense has talent with a great line. Slowed by injury. Big bounce back season.

3. Zeke- A warrior still ate, clear handcuff, great for ppr.

4. Thomas- As long as brees is back, consistent ppr beast.

5.  Kamara- Similar to saquon hobbled by injuries and he does lose touches to latavious, but the man would of caught 90-100 balls this year if he didn’t miss two games. Safe in full ppr, big upside and I think you can get him later due to a down year.

6. Hopkins-  decent year safe, Watson is a great qb and he is great.

7. Adams- Rodgers great qb, slowed down by injury, but dude is a stud on a great team huge upside. See last game for the norm for Adams.

8. Tyreek Hill- Number 1 option on a mahommes Reid team, little more boom or bust.

9. Julio- A bit inconsistent and injury to wrs gave him more targets at the end, but a week winner and safe.

10. Chubb- Only if hunt is gone

11. Cook- Only if he has a clear handcuff.

12. Fournette- Scares me a bit, will get a fat contract be sure to handcuff

13. Eckler- if rivers is back and no Gordon. Huge upside and at minimum 2019 Kamara if rivers is there, handcuff with Jackson. 

14. Kelce, huge position advantage gets you wr1 at your te spot and wrs are easy to find late.

15. Godwin- with Winston and arians.

16- Kittle- Was not a believer but the other wrs open things up for him. He’s basically Kelce all over.

17. Aarón Jones- Williams is a nuisance but he catches passes and is a red zone beast, may move him down because of likely to regression.

18. Amari Cooper- slowed down at the end but this guy is a beast.

19. Evans- weirdly inconsistent with the amount of targets he gets.

20. Sutton- Up and coming stud.

21.Keenan allen- basically a younger edelman.

22. Edelman- Getting old, but if healthy pencil in 100 catches.

23. Gurley- Solid player, but knee issues are scary handcuff.

24. Mixon- Turned a córner team should be better.

 

Just missed.

Boyd- I could see him doing well again, depends on the qb.

Lamar- QBs dime a dozen and running qbs don’t last see rg3, cam, etc. 

Devante- Depends on qb and on terrible team.

Ertz- Did well because eagles have no wrs.

Henry- Doesn’t catch passes

Mack- See Henry.

AJ Brown- Trendy pick, but tbh he looks slow to me and was shut down week 16.

 

Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell, AJ green, Melvin Gordon depend on situation.

 

 

 

Excellent post !!!!!

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On 12/24/2019 at 9:19 AM, FavreCo said:

PPR:

1. CMC - Is there any even doubt?  Guy is ridiculous and is a cheat code.

Yeah, there is a lot of doubt. New HC and QB issues. A stupid HC can ruin a player. See Mixon -change in blocking scheme from what worked in 2018 because of stupid coaches. Only recently did they go back to the old scheme and wala.

Would not surprise me if last year was his peak year. I would not want pick #1 in 2020.

No S*** this year is probably his peak year, almost nobody in nfl history put up a year like this scrimmagewise.

80-90% of this year is still a #1 pick though.

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These rankings are making me feel pretty good about my keeper league. Can keep CMC for a 1st, Chubb for a 2nd, or Lamar for a 4th (max keeper round) 

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On 12/25/2019 at 7:20 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

Full PPR

 

1. CMC- Has to be, I am weary of his touches and no clear handcuff, but he’s basically a rb1 and wr 1 and the offense will revolve around him. 

2. Saquon- Things started to click at the end,  I am a believer in the talent still will get tons of touches and this offense has talent with a great line. Slowed by injury. Big bounce back season.

3. Zeke- A warrior still ate, clear handcuff, great for ppr.

4. Thomas- As long as brees is back, consistent ppr beast.

5.  Kamara- Similar to saquon hobbled by injuries and he does lose touches to latavious, but the man would of caught 90-100 balls this year if he didn’t miss two games. Safe in full ppr, big upside and I think you can get him later due to a down year.

6. Hopkins-  decent year safe, Watson is a great qb and he is great.

7. Adams- Rodgers great qb, slowed down by injury, but dude is a stud on a great team huge upside. See last game for the norm for Adams.

8. Tyreek Hill- Number 1 option on a mahommes Reid team, little more boom or bust.

9. Julio- A bit inconsistent and injury to wrs gave him more targets at the end, but a week winner and safe.

10. Chubb- Only if hunt is gone

11. Cook- Only if he has a clear handcuff.

12. Fournette- Scares me a bit, will get a fat contract be sure to handcuff

13. Eckler- if rivers is back and no Gordon. Huge upside and at minimum 2019 Kamara if rivers is there, handcuff with Jackson. 

14. Kelce, huge position advantage gets you wr1 at your te spot and wrs are easy to find late.

15. Godwin- with Winston and arians.

16- Kittle- Was not a believer but the other wrs open things up for him. He’s basically Kelce all over.

17. Aarón Jones- Williams is a nuisance but he catches passes and is a red zone beast, may move him down because of likely to regression.

18. Amari Cooper- slowed down at the end but this guy is a beast.

19. Evans- weirdly inconsistent with the amount of targets he gets.

20. Sutton- Up and coming stud.

21.Keenan allen- basically a younger edelman.

22. Edelman- Getting old, but if healthy pencil in 100 catches.

23. Gurley- Solid player, but knee issues are scary handcuff.

24. Mixon- Turned a córner team should be better.

 

Just missed.

Boyd- I could see him doing well again, depends on the qb.

Lamar- QBs dime a dozen and running qbs don’t last see rg3, cam, etc. 

Devante- Depends on qb and on terrible team.

Ertz- Did well because eagles have no wrs.

Henry- Doesn’t catch passes

Mack- See Henry.

AJ Brown- Trendy pick, but tbh he looks slow to me and was shut down week 16.

 

Antonio Brown, Leveon Bell, AJ green, Melvin Gordon depend on situation.

 

 

 

I appreciate the list and anyone who attempts to put something like this together. Not easy and leaves you open for criticism... so here goes. Ha.

 

If you take Edelman before Henry you are making a grave mistake. Henry was the 5th ranked RB in PPR I do believe and you can say he doesn't catch passes but he produces and it doesn't matter how you get your points.

 

As for Lamar Jackson I'm definitely curious to see where his ADP goes. I have an option to keep him in one league but I hate keeping QBs. But how do you not keep Lamar? I think he got lucky staying healthy this year but with his rushing stats his numbers are insane.  Most QBs who have monster years end up regressing... will it happen again?

 

As for Mixon I'm hoping I can start buying him up again and hopefully he's not too expensive. Trade him away 2 years ago in a keeper league and I'm regretting it.

 

Evan - what a monster, but his games where he doesn't get a lot of targets is concerning and hurts bigtime. I've kept him for the last 4-5 years and I may try to trade him off.... The big weeks are amazing, and there is no reason he can't do it every week. I just don't understand with that offense what is going on week to week.

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8 hours ago, fredth3cat said:

Kareem Hunt #1 overall RB in 2020 PPR. screenshot this

On what team 

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2 hours ago, Big Nate said:

I appreciate the list and anyone who attempts to put something like this together. Not easy and leaves you open for criticism... so here goes. Ha.

 

If you take Edelman before Henry you are making a grave mistake. Henry was the 5th ranked RB in PPR I do believe and you can say he doesn't catch passes but he produces and it doesn't matter how you get your points.

 

As for Lamar Jackson I'm definitely curious to see where his ADP goes. I have an option to keep him in one league but I hate keeping QBs. But how do you not keep Lamar? I think he got lucky staying healthy this year but with his rushing stats his numbers are insane.  Most QBs who have monster years end up regressing... will it happen again?

 

As for Mixon I'm hoping I can start buying him up again and hopefully he's not too expensive. Trade him away 2 years ago in a keeper league and I'm regretting it.

 

Evan - what a monster, but his games where he doesn't get a lot of targets is concerning and hurts bigtime. I've kept him for the last 4-5 years and I may try to trade him off.... The big weeks are amazing, and there is no reason he can't do it every week. I just don't understand with that offense what is going on week to week.

I could see it in regards to henry, but in every game you are praying for a td in full ppr. Banking on 16 tds again is a risk, but with Edelman you know your getting 90 catches and about 1,100 yards and 5-7 tds. Hes been doing it on a per game basis for years now. Health is an issue for both of them. 

100 catches , 1100 yards rec , 6 td = 246 pts for Edelman in 2019.

 

1,500, 16 tds, 18 catches = 264 points for Henry in 2019.

 

So even in a career year Henry barely outproduced Edelman.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I could see it in regards to henry, but in every game you are praying for a td in full ppr. Banking on 16 tds again is a risk, but with Edelman you know your getting 90 catches and about 1,100 yards and 5-7 tds. Hes been doing it on a per game basis for years now. Health is an issue for both of them. 

100 catches , 1100 yards rec , 6 td = 246 pts for Edelman in 2019.

 

1,500, 16 tds, 18 catches = 264 points for Henry in 2019.

 

So even in a career year Henry barely outproduced Edelman.

 

 

 

We have to start two running backs. At least as I am prepping for next year, I can't imagine not starting RB/RB in most of my drafts. There are oodles of WR that I can make a top-12 case for in 2020 and I can pluck 3 or even 4 of my favorites from rounds 3-7. Here's a standard list of 38 that I could see having a top 12 season. Edelman is on it but there are plenty of other fish in the WR sea.

AFC East: Edelman, Brown, Parker

AFC North: JuJu, Landry, OBJ, Boyd, Green, Marquise

AFC South: Hilton, Hopkins, Fuller, Chark, AJ Brown

AFC West: Keenan, Sutton, Tyreek  (17)

NFC East: Shepherd, Gallup, Cooper, McLaurin

NFC South: Julio, Moore, Ridley, Godwin, Evans, Thomas

NFC North: Adams, Robinson, Thielen, Diggs, Golladay, Jones

NFC West: Lockett, Deebo, Metcalf, Woods, Kupp (21)

Others that are match-up dependent starters at a minimum: Sanders, Jeffery, Miller, Crowder, Anderson, Renfroe, Mike Williams, Perriman, Dionte, Preston Williams, Cooks, Ross, Pascal, DeDe, Tyrell, Slayton, Tate, Kirk....

Even in PPR, Derrick Henry should be a first round pick and I wouldn't let him get past 5 (CMac, Saquon, Thomas, Cook). Once August rolls around, I expect a lot of drafters will agree with me and push the RB up so that there are 16-17 RB going in the first two rounds. That said, my crystal ball wasn't so great last August if I am being honest. .  

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1 hour ago, Div1726 said:

We have to start two running backs. At least as I am prepping for next year, I can't imagine not starting RB/RB in most of my drafts. There are oodles of WR that I can make a top-12 case for in 2020 and I can pluck 3 or even 4 of my favorites from rounds 3-7. Here's a standard list of 38 that I could see having a top 12 season. Edelman is on it but there are plenty of other fish in the WR sea.

AFC East: Edelman, Brown, Parker

AFC North: JuJu, Landry, OBJ, Boyd, Green, Marquise

AFC South: Hilton, Hopkins, Fuller, Chark, AJ Brown

AFC West: Keenan, Sutton, Tyreek  (17)

NFC East: Shepherd, Gallup, Cooper, McLaurin

NFC South: Julio, Moore, Ridley, Godwin, Evans, Thomas

NFC North: Adams, Robinson, Thielen, Diggs, Golladay, Jones

NFC West: Lockett, Deebo, Metcalf, Woods, Kupp (21)

Others that are match-up dependent starters at a minimum: Sanders, Jeffery, Miller, Crowder, Anderson, Renfroe, Mike Williams, Perriman, Dionte, Preston Williams, Cooks, Ross, Pascal, DeDe, Tyrell, Slayton, Tate, Kirk....

Even in PPR, Derrick Henry should be a first round pick and I wouldn't let him get past 5 (CMac, Saquon, Thomas, Cook). Once August rolls around, I expect a lot of drafters will agree with me and push the RB up so that there are 16-17 RB going in the first two rounds. That said, my crystal ball wasn't so great last August if I am being honest. .  

Well said and I agree.  Henry is only 25 and as it stands now, is the bell cow in TEN an their offense runs around him.  He's going to get most of the GL carries and not only that is he can literally score from anywhere on the field. Lead the league in rushing yards this year.  He's going to be taken in the first 2 rounds FOR SURE and will likely even creep close to the first round in PPR leagues.  

 

To leave him out of the top 25 is an error.

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Mixon is the guy I'm hoping to get if I'm 8-12 next year. That offense has no where to go but up and he balled out at the end of the year. Everything is there for him to have his breakout. MG3 was that guy for me 2 years ago, Cook this year, I think he's next!

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1 hour ago, aapox said:

Mixon is the guy I'm hoping to get if I'm 8-12 next year. That offense has no where to go but up and he balled out at the end of the year. Everything is there for him to have his breakout. MG3 was that guy for me 2 years ago, Cook this year, I think he's next!

 

I didn't follow him much this year.  How did he do in the passing game?  I know he can catch but will Gio still be around to dampen his upside?

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9 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

 

I didn't follow him much this year.  How did he do in the passing game?  I know he can catch but will Gio still be around to dampen his upside?

Gio has two years left but can easily be cut next year with little dead cap. His contact is reasonable so I doubt this happens 

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14 hours ago, aapox said:

Mixon is the guy I'm hoping to get if I'm 8-12 next year. That offense has no where to go but up and he balled out at the end of the year. Everything is there for him to have his breakout. MG3 was that guy for me 2 years ago, Cook this year, I think he's next!

Man, every year Nixon gets hyped and every year I don't see it. He was probably your RB2 (or RB1 if you went WR/RB) and he was nothing short of a total anchor and probably a huge part of why teams missed finals. The Bengals are absolute garbage and there is no indication that their PPG will be any better next year, especially with Dalton and AJG out the door. Maybe Boy Wonder from LSU is going to rescue the franchise but next year they'll be a heavy favourite to be bottom of the AFCN and Mixon is gonna be a pretty heavy DND for me.

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