Under500Forever

Nolan Arenado 2020 Outlook

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I think people are expecting a trade too much here. I don’t see him going anywhere 

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15 minutes ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

I think people are expecting a trade too much here. I don’t see him going anywhere 

He definitely is at some point. He’s going to opt out after next season and they’ll get the least for him at the next trade deadline. They’ll get the most during this year’s deadline and if they’re not in playoff contention they will almost certainly be shopping him.

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10 hours ago, Michael Bluth said:

I can’t decide which side of this argument is right. I sway back and forth Between bargain and Bust (if he gets traded) with every post. Picking 8th and 13th puts him right in my wheelhouse too

I think he’s neither. If he gets traded he’s no longer a bargain though and closer to a bust. If he doesn’t get traded then you got a 4 cat 3B for a higher price than a 5 cat one in J-Ram.

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

He definitely is at some point. He’s going to opt out after next season and they’ll get the least for him at the next trade deadline. They’ll get the most during this year’s deadline and if they’re not in playoff contention they will almost certainly be shopping him.

I assumed we were speaking for redraft leagues

Edited by BxBOMBERs28

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He’s a bargain imo. This isn’t bench coach cause it already happened, but I flipped Corey seager and mike soroka for him in dynasty. Even if arenado goes to the the Giants Or whatever bad park factors stadium, I feel Great about the trade. He’s an elite hitter, coors or not.

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18 hours ago, turner46 said:

Arenado has played 1 more game at home, has had 10 more at bats and 19 more plate appearances yet here are the #'s.

.324 129 HR 446 RBI 373 Runs at home

.265 98 HR 288 RBI 253 Runs on the road.

#CoorsVirus

Getting Deja vu from djl 2019 thread. Coors boost also artificially deflates road numbers as you’re going back and forth between the climates. great hitters can still make it on the other side (Matt Holliday, DJL, and I’m sure others).

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The Coors hangover effect.

The baseball one, not the one you might be getting if you ran out of good beer while trying to drink your way through the pain of not having baseball right now.

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34 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

Looking at the 28 high stakes drafts on NFBC in the past 3 days looks like the sharks are higher on JoRam. Nolan A going pick 16 JoRam going pick 11. Speeds just so valuable these days. 

https://nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

 

Dont mind me I'm a noob who put in the search wrong. Only two drafts are showing and JoRam is at 9 Nolan A at 14. We shall see where it ends after today but I'm guessing the sharks are on JoRam.

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7 minutes ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

Dont mind me I'm a noob who put in the search wrong. Only two drafts are showing and JoRam is at 9 Nolan A at 14. We shall see where it ends after today but I'm guessing the sharks are on JoRam.

JoRam was gross last year

123/482
68
23
83
24
.255

 

Arenado beat him in every category by a long shot except sb's. People are really sleeping on Arenado this year and I love it.

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20 hours ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Ok, but what really drags him down on those numbers are road games in LA, SF and SD, notorious pitchers parks with some history of great pitching in the division.

That 181 of his career 509 road games or about 36 percent.

I'm not saying that Coors doesn't give him a lift, but there's some context to the road splits too.

Yeah, but landing spot is vital.  If he goes to say St Louis he’ll have 81 games in a neutral park.  Do the extra road games in Cinci and Mil make up for that?  Probably not a ton.  
 

But for 2020 he’s going too low.  As long as he’s in Coors he’s a top 10 player.  His contract is tough, those type of deals usually get dealt in offseason, not at deadline.  I think he’s safe for 2020.

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15 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Yeah, but landing spot is vital.  If he goes to say St Louis he’ll have 81 games in a neutral park.  Do the extra road games in Cinci and Mil make up for that?  Probably not a ton.  
 

But for 2020 he’s going too low.  As long as he’s in Coors he’s a top 10 player.  His contract is tough, those type of deals usually get dealt in offseason, not at deadline.  I think he’s safe for 2020.

Makes sense.

I wasn't comparing road divisional opponents, just saying if you are projecting a Coors-less Arenado using only his home-road splits, one should take in account that a significant portion of those road games thus far have taken place in less favorable conditions than he would likely find in a new home park with whoever that trading partner might be.

Home games at Busch Stadium (or wherever) may not be as favorable as home games at Coors, but they're likely more favorable than road games at Petco.

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10 hours ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

I assumed we were speaking for redraft leagues

Well if he’s traded at the deadline then it affects them too. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, sjs1890 said:

JoRam was gross last year

123/482
68
23
83
24
.255

 

Arenado beat him in every category by a long shot except sb's. People are really sleeping on Arenado this year and I love it.

 

50 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

Yeah, but landing spot is vital.  If he goes to say St Louis he’ll have 81 games in a neutral park.  Do the extra road games in Cinci and Mil make up for that?  Probably not a ton.  
 

But for 2020 he’s going too low.  As long as he’s in Coors he’s a top 10 player.  His contract is tough, those type of deals usually get dealt in offseason, not at deadline.  I think he’s safe for 2020.

Arenado doesn’t help in SB’s and power is no longer at a premium so that hurts his value. J-Ram has a low BABIP for half of last season, once he was fine he was a top 5 player like in 2018.

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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Posted (edited)

arenado standard 5x5 rank. last 5 years

9, 13, 10, 5, 8

 

pretty much says it all. you want floor, you want health, you want consistency

you could realistically get the highest floor 1st rder and the highest celing 1st rder around the turn. arenado and trea

 

 

 

Edited by colepenhagen
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29 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

arenado standard 5x5 rank. last 5 years

9, 13, 10, 5, 8

 

pretty much says it all. you want floor, you want health, you want consistency

you could realistically get the highest floor 1st rder and the highest celing 1st rder around the turn. arenado and trea

 

 

 

Yeah if you can get Arenado and Turner at the turn that's a massive start and set up to do really well.

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2 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Well if he’s traded at the deadline then it affects them too. 

Not happening. I’ll gladly take him round 1 in redrafts 

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

 

Arenado doesn’t help in SB’s and power is no longer at a premium so that hurts his value. J-Ram has a low BABIP for half of last season, once he was fine he was a top 5 player like in 2018.

What if the ball goes back to normal? Then power is at a premium again. 

Edited by BxBOMBERs28

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

arenado standard 5x5 rank. last 5 years

9, 13, 10, 5, 8

 

pretty much says it all. you want floor, you want health, you want consistency

you could realistically get the highest floor 1st rder and the highest celing 1st rder around the turn. arenado and trea

 

 

 

 

 

got the 11th pick in the first round and second pick in the second round. if they both are still available, definitely taking them and getting two SP the next two.

Edited by The_Real_Deal

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12 hours ago, sjs1890 said:

JoRam was gross last year

123/482
68
23
83
24
.255

 

Arenado beat him in every category by a long shot except sb's. People are really sleeping on Arenado this year and I love it.

 

JoRam missed nearly a 1/5th of the season and had a awful start. Still finished with 23hrs 24sb. Look the season before to see what his upside is. 

Arenado has no speed whatsoever and could get traded lowering his value. 

So actually doing this right today looking at high stakes NFBC drafts from 3/1-3/16 which is 11 drafts:

Jose R. going 11adp

Nolan A- going 15th adp

I think what this says is high stakes players are valuing the ceiling and sbs of Jo-Ram over the safety of Arenado.  

What can we take from this? If you're in a soft league it may make more sense to take Arenado because you will get a bigger edge over others with smart waiver moves and just drafting better since the league is spot. In a tougher league it makes sense to go for ceiling. 

Personally I'm always taking Jo-ram over Arenado. I feel like I can find the cats Arenado offers easier throughout the draft. I dont want to be forced into grabbing a one dimensional SB later.  I believe in Ramirez continuing what he showed in the second half. 

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1 hour ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

JoRam missed nearly a 1/5th of the season and had a awful start. Still finished with 23hrs 24sb. Look the season before to see what his upside is. 

Arenado has no speed whatsoever and could get traded lowering his value. 

So actually doing this right today looking at high stakes NFBC drafts from 3/1-3/16 which is 11 drafts:

Jose R. going 11adp

Nolan A- going 15th adp

I think what this says is high stakes players are valuing the ceiling and sbs of Jo-Ram over the safety of Arenado.  

What can we take from this? If you're in a soft league it may make more sense to take Arenado because you will get a bigger edge over others with smart waiver moves and just drafting better since the league is spot. In a tougher league it makes sense to go for ceiling. 

Personally I'm always taking Jo-ram over Arenado. I feel like I can find the cats Arenado offers easier throughout the draft. I dont want to be forced into grabbing a one dimensional SB later.  I believe in Ramirez continuing what he showed in the second half. 

Who knows quite possibly could be that 2018 was an outlier year for JoRam. I prefer the pure consistency that Arenado provides in elite 4 cats. Its not like Arenado has no ceiling lol hes been a stud 5 consecutive years.

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After his start last season, I have no issue with some taking Ramirez over Arenado.  Leaves me more Arenado.

Steals are great, but Ramirez has had one full season where he hit over .270, one season where he hit more than 100 RBIs, one season where he hit more than 30 homers and one season where he scored more than 100 runs, and those numbers are split over two seasons, neither of which were last year.

Arenado's done all of that 4 years in a row.

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39 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

After his start last season, I have no issue with some taking Ramirez over Arenado.  Leaves me more Arenado.

Steals are great, but Ramirez has had one full season where he hit over .270, one season where he hit more than 100 RBIs, one season where he hit more than 30 homers and one season where he scored more than 100 runs, and those numbers are split over two seasons, neither of which were last year.

Arenado's done all of that 4 years in a row.

 

Wrong, hit 312 in 2016 (645 PA's at 23 years old) and 318 in 2017 (618 PA's with 107 runs and 29 hrs at 24 years old) before having the full breakout in 2018 at the age of 25 which seems about right for guys to breakout

 

its splitting hairs between who guys should draft as both are nice picks but needed to mention the correct stats

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18 minutes ago, kmoore1521 said:

 

Wrong, hit 312 in 2016 (645 PA's at 23 years old) and 318 in 2017 (618 PA's with 107 runs and 29 hrs at 24 years old) before having the full breakout in 2018 at the age of 25 which seems about right for guys to breakout

 

its splitting hairs between who guys should draft as both are nice picks but needed to mention the correct stats

You're right.  Although I'm not sure many had him for the 2016 season when he had 11 HRs and 7 SBs.

2017 and 2018 were beautiful.  Last year was terrifying in the first half.  Arenado has been hands down the more consistent player over the past four years.

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10 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

You're right.  Although I'm not sure many had him for the 2016 season when he had 11 HRs and 7 SBs.

2017 and 2018 were beautiful.  Last year was terrifying in the first half.  Arenado has been hands down the more consistent player over the past four years.

 

Yea no doubt, if you want safe, Arenado is about as safe as they come, even with the trade risks n such

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