Under500Forever

Nolan Arenado 2020 Outlook

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On 3/15/2020 at 10:57 AM, fawkes_mulder said:

He’s a bargain imo. This isn’t bench coach cause it already happened, but I flipped Corey seager and mike soroka for him in dynasty. Even if arenado goes to the the Giants Or whatever bad park factors stadium, I feel Great about the trade. He’s an elite hitter, coors or not.

 

I doubt they'd trade him in the division... So you can almost cancel out the two worst parks in SF & SD (I thought I heard Petco moved their fences in last year tho, fact check anyone?).

 

But Arenado loses so much fantasy value if he leaves Colorado.  Yes he still is likely to hit for a high average.  But the power numbers and run production likely take a hit.  Run production more dependent on the lineup he lands in.

 

Arenado's career splits:

514 home games:  .324 / .380 / .615

515 away games:  .265 / .322 / .477

 

That's a difference of 196 points in OPS from home to road games.  Last year it was a 193 drop in OPS from home to road games. 

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9 hours ago, FouLLine said:

 

I doubt they'd trade him in the division... So you can almost cancel out the two worst parks in SF & SD (I thought I heard Petco moved their fences in last year tho, fact check anyone?).

 

But Arenado loses so much fantasy value if he leaves Colorado.  Yes he still is likely to hit for a high average.  But the power numbers and run production likely take a hit.  Run production more dependent on the lineup he lands in.

 

Arenado's career splits:

514 home games:  .324 / .380 / .615

515 away games:  .265 / .322 / .477

 

That's a difference of 196 points in OPS from home to road games.  Last year it was a 193 drop in OPS from home to road games. 

You just cannot treat road numbers as an indicator for Rockies hitters due to the Coors effect. That is the problem. Risk is there, but everyone can look at the splits and over-react and depress his value too much.

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23 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

You just cannot treat road numbers as an indicator for Rockies hitters due to the Coors effect. That is the problem. Risk is there, but everyone can look at the splits and over-react and depress his value too much.

 

So you're saying it's more fair to assume he'll be just as valuable in fantasy when he's no longer a Rockie?  Cause I'm struggling with how that's a better avenue of analyzing this?

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3 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

You just cannot treat road numbers as an indicator for Rockies hitters due to the Coors effect. That is the problem. Risk is there, but everyone can look at the splits and over-react and depress his value too much.

Yes we can. What Coors effect are you talking about? He hits better at home due to the altitude. He’s not that good outside Coors. It’s a fact, not an opinion. 

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4 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Yes we can. What Coors effect are you talking about? He hits better at home due to the altitude. He’s not that good outside Coors. It’s a fact, not an opinion. 

Coors field hangover effect is also a fact, not an opinion. Research it not hard to find  

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While I think Arenado's fantasy value takes a hit from leaving Coors I don't think his ADP (say the first season where he's not starting the season in Colorado) will drop enough to net good value.  I'm thinking he probably only drops to the 2nd maybe 3rd round at the latest due to name recognition, still being relatively young, and just how elite he has been over his career so far.  Which I think his hitting profile he could maintain 2nd/3rd round value in another stadium (and again it really depends where he ends up).

 

I do want to remind though that when Matt Holliday left The Rockies he was a league winner the following year.  But he went from a fringe 1st/2nd rounder to like a 13th rounder (going off of memory so I'd invite a more accurate fact check).  I doubt we get anything close to this in the case of Arenado in future seasons to come (if he does in fact get shipped out).

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5 hours ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Coors field hangover effect is also a fact, not an opinion. Research it not hard to find  

Yeah the Coors effect is absolutely real I don't know why its so hard for people to comprehend. Arenado would do just fine if he got traded to a contender, most likely options would be the Braves or Phillies which would be great landing spots.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, FouLLine said:

While I think Arenado's fantasy value takes a hit from leaving Coors I don't think his ADP (say the first season where he's not starting the season in Colorado) will drop enough to net good value.  I'm thinking he probably only drops to the 2nd maybe 3rd round at the latest due to name recognition, still being relatively young, and just how elite he has been over his career so far.  Which I think his hitting profile he could maintain 2nd/3rd round value in another stadium (and again it really depends where he ends up).

 

I do want to remind though that when Matt Holliday left The Rockies he was a league winner the following year.  But he went from a fringe 1st/2nd rounder to like a 13th rounder (going off of memory so I'd invite a more accurate fact check).  I doubt we get anything close to this in the case of Arenado in future seasons to come (if he does in fact get shipped out).

Holiday's OPS the first year he left Coors was actually higher than any year at Coors.

Edit: in STL, not OAK portion or whole season.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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18 hours ago, BxBOMBERs28 said:

Coors field hangover effect is also a fact, not an opinion. Research it not hard to find  

It’s not though. You’re really naive if you think that all those players who are significantly better in Coors, will be just as good on their new teams.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

It’s not though. You’re really naive if you think that all those players who are significantly better in Coors, will be just as good on their new teams.

It is though, don’t be naive to facts. Did you read it? Doubtful 

Edited by BxBOMBERs28
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Maybe Tulo and CarGo should be hall of famers. Just use their home field stats which are elite. And don't count their road stats or stats with other teams as they were by no fault of their own "hungover" from Coors.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Maybe Tulo and CarGo should be hall of famers. Just use their home field stats which are elite. And don't count their road stats or stats with other teams as they were by no fault of their own "hungover" from Coors.

Chalk up another one who can’t comprehend this study. READING COMPREHENSION!

Edited by BxBOMBERs28
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It's funny, and by funny I mean absurd, how many people don't even bother to engage with the ample literature, posted many times across so many Rockies player threads, that proves beyond any reasonable doubt that Rockies hitters maintain their overall production after leaving Colorado.  Tulo and CarGo were washed before they left.  Everyone else -- Holliday, Dickerson, LeMahieu, among others -- has maintained or improved on their overall production after leaving Coors, with the slide in their home numbers offset by improved results on the road.

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Why does Marquez pitch so well hungover or so poorly sober???

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8 minutes ago, turner46 said:

Why does Marquez pitch so well hungover or so poorly sober???

Ask Doc Ellis?

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On 3/16/2020 at 10:25 AM, FouLLine said:

 

I doubt they'd trade him in the division... So you can almost cancel out the two worst parks in SF & SD (I thought I heard Petco moved their fences in last year tho, fact check anyone?).

 

But Arenado loses so much fantasy value if he leaves Colorado.  Yes he still is likely to hit for a high average.  But the power numbers and run production likely take a hit.  Run production more dependent on the lineup he lands in.

 

Arenado's career splits:

514 home games:  .324 / .380 / .615

515 away games:  .265 / .322 / .477

 

That's a difference of 196 points in OPS from home to road games.  Last year it was a 193 drop in OPS from home to road games. 

I know the intradivision trades are rare, but imagine a scenario where he goes to the Dodgers and hits in the middle of that lineup...I think some of his stats might actually improve...and he'd probably gain some other positional eligibility.😂

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On 1/22/2020 at 2:12 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Always better to have a much worse player if there are savings involved. Winning championships are fun but have you ever experienced the joy of saving billionaires millions of dollars?

 

Yes, the Phillies would be a decent amount better with Arenado as would most (if not all) teams. 

 

 

I get your point, but what if Bohm ends up being better than Arenado out of Coors?

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

I get your point, but what if Bohm ends up being better than Arenado out of Coors?

 

I'm not sure you took the advice of other posters to actually dig into the analysis of what happens to hitters who leave Colorado.

Either way Arenado is a great hitter.  I think its not a sure thing Bohm will be an Arenado as a hitter.  It's possible, but I'd certainly bet against it at even odds. Secondly, Arenado is one of the best defensive 3rd basemen, that matters a lot too in the event they are closer to the same level hitter. Bohm will struggle to be an adequate 3b, let alone great.  Philly's window is now, the spent over 100 million for Wheeler they have Harper/Realmuto/Hoskins/Nola in their primes.  If the goal is to win a championship, I would rather have Arenado for 2 years with that squad than Bohm. I like Bohm as a prospect too, he could be a very good hitter.  I

Edited by brockpapersizer

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7 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I'm not sure you took the advice of other posters to actually dig into the analysis of what happens to hitters who leave Colorado.

Either way Arenado is a great hitter.  I think its not a sure thing Bohm will be an Arenado as a hitter.  It's possible, but I'd certainly bet against it at even odds. Secondly, Arenado is one of the best defensive 3rd basemen, that matters a lot too in the event they are closer to the same level hitter. Bohm will struggle to be an adequate 3b, let alone great.  Philly's window is now, the spent over 100 million for Wheeler they have Harper/Realmuto/Hoskins/Nola in their primes.  If the goal is to win a championship, I would rather have Arenado for 2 years with that squad than Bohm. I like Bohm as a prospect too, he could be a very good hitter.  I

Maybe you’re right. I still want to see how Arenado does outside Coors, where he’s a career 109 WRC+ hitter, compared to 130 WRC+ at home. .265 BA compared to .324. I just think it’s better to save money and roll with Bohm.

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1 hour ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Maybe you’re right. I still want to see how Arenado does outside Coors, where he’s a career 109 WRC+ hitter, compared to 130 WRC+ at home. .265 BA compared to .324. I just think it’s better to save money and roll with Bohm.

If the point is to save money and not try to win a championship , sure. Can't argue one is cheaper.

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Posted (edited)

In fairness @Thenewwildone8, with the uncertainty fo a 2020 season, Arenado's trade value does plummet (as does Bryant's). My original suggestion was well before a pandemic broke out and the 2020 season was in jeopardy. Arenado has an opt out after next season, so if you're paying for just 1 year, the price does drop pretty drastically, at this point Bohm might be an overpay if you're getting 7 cost controlled years of him. For 2 years of peak Arenado in your championship window I think thats more palatable.  1? Considering their other expensive contracts? Doesn't seem as good, and if the Phillies didn't do the deal when we thought it was 2 years, the deal is probably dead by now.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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11 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

Maybe you’re right. I still want to see how Arenado does outside Coors, where he’s a career 109 WRC+ hitter, compared to 130 WRC+ at home. .265 BA compared to .324. I just think it’s better to save money and roll with Bohm.

You're struggling with this idea only because you refuse to read.  

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

In fairness @Thenewwildone8, with the uncertainty fo a 2020 season, Arenado's trade value does plummet (as does Bryant's). My original suggestion was well before a pandemic broke out and the 2020 season was in jeopardy. Arenado has an opt out after next season, so if you're paying for just 1 year, the price does drop pretty drastically, at this point Bohm might be an overpay if you're getting 7 cost controlled years of him. For 2 years of peak Arenado in your championship window I think thats more palatable.  1? Considering their other expensive contracts? Doesn't seem as good, and if the Phillies didn't do the deal when we thought it was 2 years, the deal is probably dead by now.

Exactly, will Arenado agree to waive his opt-out? Bohm could be a star on his own for all we know. I get what you mean, but suppose the Phillies pursue bullpen help or another starter instead? 

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, WahooManiac said:

You're struggling with this idea only because you refuse to read.  

No I just have data and statistics to prove my point while you have an article stating some guy‘s opinion. He‘s significantly worse on the road. That’s a fact with a large sample size. 
 

Your article is actually a Reddit repost of a fan article on an FG blog. How about you post an article by a respected analyst saying that Arenado is as good outside of Coors, because your article is neither from a reliable source nor is it convincing.  
 

Furthermore this is what that same article states as its conclusion:

While we can’t definitively prove the absence of presence of a Coors Field Hangover, there is some evidence that it exists and may cause us to slightly underestimate Rockies hitters while helping to explain the team’s difficulty on the road.

In other words he couldn’t find proof this exists and at best it just barely affects their stats.

Edited by Thenewwildone8

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