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murraygd13

Blake Snell 2020 Outlook

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We will see how much he drops, but he's probably a DND for me. Even if he turns out fine he likely is going to start the season on the IL and miss some starts. He is already an injury risk even if he was full healthy.

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18 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Even deeper discount. 👍🏼

For those who haven’t drafted, paid keeper prices or traded for.

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Hope to hear more on the issue before draft days, was on the fence already.

From what I read the difference in results from the previous two seasons was luck. A little too lucky in 2018 and little too unlucky in 19. The Ray's should be good again, so wouldn't mind taking him if healthy. As of now, will wait and take Glasnow if available later in the draft.

 

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59 minutes ago, Members_Only_76 said:

Even deeper discount. 👍🏼

 

I wonder if that’s actually going to happen. There will always be people taking him close to his current ADP, willing to roll the dice. I can see a discount but not a huge discount.

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50 minutes ago, 2014olympicgold said:

Really curious how much of a discount this creates. 10spots? 15spots? Obvi it's league dependent but curious what happens.

I think it all depends how he fares rest of spring training. If there’s no setback, I think the discount is minimal, if any. And, as you stated, it’s league dependent.  

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I just can't do it. At some point, I have to look myself in the mirror and smash a paddle upside my head and say "STOP DRAFTING PITCHERS THAT ARE 'ONLY GOING TO BE OUT FOR THE FIRST MONTH.'" Every year I do it and every year my IL spot is backed up for 3 months while someone is juuuust about to return and then they have a setback. That's it, I'm done, no more, I'm out!

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Owners were burned with Severino this year and last.  
 

He might not fall enough for my liking.

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Yup.  The way I heard someone on a podcast say it was "injuries are going to find you during the season, you don't need to try to find them in the draft."  Obviously there comes a point where the value is worth the gamble, but with most leagues having 20+ active slots, anything fewer than 4 or 5 IL slots makes the needed discount much larger than most drafts are giving injured name brand starting pitchers.

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Posted (edited)
49 minutes ago, GrapeJuice said:

I just can't do it. At some point, I have to look myself in the mirror and smash a paddle upside my head and say "STOP DRAFTING PITCHERS THAT ARE 'ONLY GOING TO BE OUT FOR THE FIRST MONTH.'" Every year I do it and every year my IL spot is backed up for 3 months while someone is juuuust about to return and then they have a setback. That's it, I'm done, no more, I'm out!

 

You’re not alone there. I’ve maintained for years that the fantasy community as a whole consistently underestimates the impact starting the season with an injury or recovering from major offseason surgery has on a player’s performance that year.

Pitchers, especially, dealing with shoulder, elbow, or forearm injuries are generally a no-go for me during draft season. There’s always a point where I’d be comfortable drafting said injured player but I very rarely get to that point because there’s always someone else in the draft room who can’t resist the temptation. 

Edited by meh2

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7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

Yup.  The way I heard someone on a podcast say it was "injuries are going to find you during the season, you don't need to try to find them in the draft."  Obviously there comes a point where the value is worth the gamble, but with most leagues having 20+ active slots, anything fewer than 4 or 5 IL slots makes the needed discount much larger than most drafts are giving injured name brand starting pitchers.

 

Agree with this, although I think you can get away with it in some cases (i.e. a pitcher with an ankle injury).

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Said he played catch from 90 feet today with no discomfort. Positive sign of course but any elbow or forearm issues tend to make me nervous. Trying to package him as one of my keepers for darvish and a draft pick. What are others doing with this info thag he didn't have discomfort? Sell his good news or run with it? 

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2 minutes ago, Mrmann1 said:

Said he played catch from 90 feet today with no discomfort. Positive sign of course but any elbow or forearm issues tend to make me nervous. Trying to package him as one of my keepers for darvish and a draft pick. What are others doing with this info thag he didn't have discomfort? Sell his good news or run with it? 

I’m “stuck” with him. I traded Wheeler as part of a package two days before the news broke. I can’t drop him, because it’s an auction and I have a lack of funds to get him back. I can’t trade him for market value because everyone knows now about his elbow or will try to buy low. All I can do is hope for the best.🤷🏻‍♂️

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Man, I really would love to see what this guy can do if he would stop getting bit by the injury bug. I am still high on him this year and praying that the "discomfort" doesn't return.

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I'm high on him this year too but I have to admit the initial news had me very nervous. I get him in the 14th round as a keeper so the risk isn't as high but regardless if he misses time it's still a wasted keeper pick. I'm staying out for now and holding out hope that the news of no discomfort is a sign of good things. 

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He went in the 3rd round in Tout Wars Mixed Draft tonight (41st overall, #13 SP). So not much of a discount. 

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On 3/3/2020 at 2:35 PM, BostonCajun said:

I'm high on him this year too but I have to admit the initial news had me very nervous. I get him in the 14th round as a keeper so the risk isn't as high but regardless if he misses time it's still a wasted keeper pick. I'm staying out for now and holding out hope that the news of no discomfort is a sign of good things. 

This he’s playing catch again today so let’s see what happens 

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15 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

He went in the 3rd round in Tout Wars Mixed Draft tonight (41st overall, #13 SP). So not much of a discount. 

I suspect that will be the earliest he goes. The question will be how late will he go, although things seem to be looking a little more positive

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16 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

He went in the 3rd round in Tout Wars Mixed Draft tonight (41st overall, #13 SP). So not much of a discount. 

 

Speaking to Tout Wars, did you check out "DJ?" Short's team? Had a hard time believing an industry expert was making some of those picks...

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14 hours ago, MSkibisky said:

I suspect that will be the earliest he goes. The question will be how late will he go, although things seem to be looking a little more positive


Before he received his cortisone shot, his ADP was 35 and he was the #10 SP.

Since the beginning of this month his ADP is 50 and he has been the #14 SP. 

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The risk is real but the value is there if all things go his way. I got him last night in the 6th round of the forum mock at 67th overall. He was the 19th SP off the board. 

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21 minutes ago, BostonCajun said:

The risk is real but the value is there if all things go his way. I got him last night in the 6th round of the forum mock at 67th overall. He was the 19th SP off the board. 

Wow that's late, even with risk factored in, that's great value

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It’s a valid point

 

 
 
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One day after Blake Snell resumed throwing in #Rays camp, Kevin Cash says they’re “not overly concerned” that Snell’s elbow discomfort is a long-term worry. “If we were concerned, he would have been shut down for a (prolonged) time,” Cash said.
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Posted (edited)

This is the thing though, anything elbow = risk vs. reward. He may be fine now and without pain and everything is good but the human body is weird and it may have been an odd motion that hasn't been repeated since. I don't know. All I know is, every year, we read a lot of blurbs that include references to things that were mentioned earlier in the season that -- at that time -- were no big deal. "This is the same elbow that he tweaked in camp..." blah blah blah.

If I'm in a keeper league, I don't even bat an eye. Seriously. But if I'm redraft? I just have to ask myself is it worth the risk when you're spending that high of a pick (#10-15 SP) on him? Invariably my answer is no.

Edited by GrapeJuice
OCD

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