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BrianM

Who are you buying/fading in 2020?

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Who won you over this year and is on your early list of guys to target?  

Who looks like a smokescreen to you that you're going to avoid next year?

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Targets:

  • Really hoping to see some reshuffling in KC and to see Hardman work into more snaps/targets.  He really did look the part of another Tyreek. I'm taking a swing here
  • DK Metcalf looked like the real deal to me.  Some missteps but this guy was supposed to be super raw, but turned in a pretty good season.  I'm in
  • A popular opinion i'm sure- but I want ALL the shares of Miles Sanders i can get, and i'll overpay.  
  • I fall hard for players that show speed and rushing ability, and Deebo Samuel is one.   Gimme gimme.

Fades:

  • Melvin Gordon:  Many, many people preached this past summer that he was only succeeding because of excellent usage.  He feels a lot more like a 2020 Tevin Coleman than a 2020 LeVeon Bell at this point.
  • Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams:  Price will matter here, but my early thought is that both are popular and Adams's injury is blamed for their production woes.  My thought is they'll be overdrafted expecting a bounceback, but the new way in GB is a running team.  Also, their defense had a great year- its hard to QB1 overall when you dont ever need to throw for 400 yards to win.  
  • Leonard Fournette:  It was a maybe if Marrone got let go, but we all know how this next Jags season is gonna go already.   At his best he was a hit or miss producer of yardage, but a TD magnet.   I can't imagine he gets only 3 again, but its a risky bet to assume he gets back up near double digits

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I'm worried about McCaffrey. He appears to be QB-proof and HC-proof, but how sure are we that an incoming new regime won't mess this up? 

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I think that Michael Gallup has the potential to level up, but I’m holding off proclaiming that until I see who is the coach. 

Devin Singletary will be a buy for me next year for sure and I’m sure I’ll go early for him.  Same with Drake if he stays  in Arizona. 
 

AJ Green will be off my radar no matter what his health is next year going into our draft season. 

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1 hour ago, bwarbiany said:

I'm worried about McCaffrey. He appears to be QB-proof and HC-proof, but how sure are we that an incoming new regime won't mess this up? 


Really? He’s number one pick no matter what, he’s a cheat code.

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I've seen a few folks wondering this same thing on CMC, but he just outscored the next closest RB in PPR by 150 points.  Even a 20% regression from that total puts him at around 370 points or so- a total only a few other backs have reached in the past 5 years.     Surely a new coach can disrupt things a bit there, but going anywhere else but him at first RB drafted is overthinking it.  

Singletary has to be Buffalo's feature back for sure.   My issue with him is Josh Allen's goal line TD prowess.   Devin's upside is capped a bit, despite his obvious talent.

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7 hours ago, bwarbiany said:

I'm worried about McCaffrey. He appears to be QB-proof and HC-proof, but how sure are we that an incoming new regime won't mess this up? 

HC-proof by your own admittance...

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9 hours ago, GreatScott! said:

I think that Michael Gallup has the potential to level up, but I’m holding off proclaiming that until I see who is the coach. 

Devin Singletary will be a buy for me next year for sure and I’m sure I’ll go early for him.  Same with Drake if he stays  in Arizona. 
 

AJ Green will be off my radar no matter what his health is next year going into our draft season. 

I agree with you for Singletary and Drake. Of course is dependant on what other backs are with them but will be on my watch lists on draft boards next season

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Would be surprising to see CMC replicate what he did this season but no way he goes anywhere but pick 1 next season barring an injury. 

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12 hours ago, BrianM said:

Targets:

  • Really hoping to see some reshuffling in KC and to see Hardman work into more snaps/targets.  He really did look the part of another Tyreek. I'm taking a swing here
  • DK Metcalf looked like the real deal to me.  Some missteps but this guy was supposed to be super raw, but turned in a pretty good season.  I'm in
  • A popular opinion i'm sure- but I want ALL the shares of Miles Sanders i can get, and i'll overpay.  
  • I fall hard for players that show speed and rushing ability, and Deebo Samuel is one.   Gimme gimme.

Fades:

  • Melvin Gordon:  Many, many people preached this past summer that he was only succeeding because of excellent usage.  He feels a lot more like a 2020 Tevin Coleman than a 2020 LeVeon Bell at this point.
  • Aaron Rodgers/Davante Adams:  Price will matter here, but my early thought is that both are popular and Adams's injury is blamed for their production woes.  My thought is they'll be overdrafted expecting a bounceback, but the new way in GB is a running team.  Also, their defense had a great year- its hard to QB1 overall when you dont ever need to throw for 400 yards to win.  
  • Leonard Fournette:  It was a maybe if Marrone got let go, but we all know how this next Jags season is gonna go already.   At his best he was a hit or miss producer of yardage, but a TD magnet.   I can't imagine he gets only 3 again, but its a risky bet to assume he gets back up near double digits

Deebo and Metcalf have looked fantastic. Wilson as the season wore on looked Metcalfs way so much. Same for Deebo.

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I’m personally not likely to invest in anything Vikings related next season unless they fall way down the board. Dalvin Cook looking like a top 3-5 pick next season and I won’t buy there despite his talent. Injured far too often. Diggs and Thielen as well have typically been selected in the 3rd round last few years but no way will I consider them unless it’s like round 5-6. Thielen especially has had a tough year will be hard to trust unless he has a clean preseason.

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Buying:

QB: Josh Allen, great floor for those of us who like to wait on QB

RB: Philip Lindsay, proved he wasn't a one year wonder, and Freeman didn't make any substantial progress as his 1B. Plus he's on a contract year if they don't get a deal done before then. 

WR: Chris Godwin, I didn't like him at his cost this year and was dead wrong. 

TE: Tyler Higbee, they'd have to be complete morons to not try to feature him next season. He's a solid blocker from what i understands as well which could benefit a run game that needs all the help it can get, theoretically keeping him on the field in most all situations. 

Fading:

QB: Sam Darnold, thought he and the whole Jets team would take a nice step forward, but nothing about the Jets offense showed great improvement. They had as soft of a schedule as you could get and he still underwhelmed as he played behind a bad oline. Doesn't get to play the NFC east next year either.

RB: Josh Jacobs, his usage in the passing game was maddening and I'm not confident that will change next year. I think he'll be overdrafted and a better real life RB than fantasy.

WR: Devante Parker, not buying it. 56% catch rate, 7 drops, on a team that had no other choice but to target him. Plus he got paid. I'll pass.

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I'm all in on AJ Brown. Guy just looks like varsity vs JV every time he gets the ball. He stands out. I'm not touching any player for the Bears. I will also continue to stay away from Pats and KC RBs. 

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Not saying I would pass on cmc but the 400 touches is a huge concern.  Him or the team didn’t do themselves any favors by riding him so hard in a lost season.  It’ll be interesting to see how much decline there will be.  

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Passing hard on Kenyan Drake. He was putting up 7 points every week until he exploded in the fantasy playoffs. I can see him having a 2019-Damien Williams season. Last year’s playoff studs are often a risk to be overdrafted. Plus if DJ sticks around it’s possible he’s not done-done and it was just a lingering injury that needed time to heal.

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Buying:

Mike Williams (dynasty truthers understand the importance of waiting for elite talent highlighted by Devante Parker) , Dallas Godert, Hunter Henry (at the right price), Michael Gallup (at the right price), most the 2nd year TEs, OJ Howard (an elite talent), & all top notch rookies with talent regardless of situation

 

Fading:

Alvin Kamara, Bears players minus D Montgomery after round 6, Zach Ertz, good players in bad situations (JuJu can't trust him with 3rd string Qbs and Big Ben who needs TJ surgery), and generally players over age 28+ since they have already broken out

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Posted (edited)

Super hot QB take ahead


Fade: Kyler because his ADP is going to be hyped up way too high due to people expecting a Lamar-esque year 2 leap and their line is trash

 

Buy: Dwayne Haskins because he has good arm talent, is throwing to Terry McLaurin, has a competent new HC, and is going to be a much cheaper QB lotto ticket

Edited by sSektor
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Joe Mixon will be a top 5 RB that you will probably be able to get in the 2nd round.

Nick Chubb had bad touchdown luck, and if Hunt is gone and they add OL, he'll also be top 5.

If Kansas City drafts Taylor, Swift, Etienne, or Dobbins, they are worth a late 1st / early 2nd pick.

 

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1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

Joe Mixon will be a top 5 RB that you will probably be able to get in the 2nd round.

Tell me what on earth you see in Joe Mixon that you think he'll be top 5. I see a guy who right now isn't top 5 in the AFC. 

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1 minute ago, DeliciousGravy said:

Tell me what on earth you see in Joe Mixon that you think he'll be top 5. I see a guy who right now isn't top 5 in the AFC. 

I'd buy him the same as this year's ADP which was 2nd rd. And with a rookie QB, I'd feel very confident about his outlook.

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1 minute ago, FitzMagic said:

I'd buy him the same as this year's ADP which was 2nd rd. And with a rookie QB, I'd feel very confident about his outlook.

At his ADP this year you could have waited a whole round and taken Chris Carson or Mark Ingram - guys who actually had a chance of sniffing the end zone week to week. Or heck even Fournette is now adding a dumpoff floor. Mixon has to be the most perennially overdrafted RB each year and just sinks teams year after year but is hyped up every off-season. I'll buy in when I see any suggestion the Bengals get 5 guys in front of him better than high-school tackle bags.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, DeliciousGravy said:

At his ADP this year you could have waited a whole round and taken Chris Carson or Mark Ingram - guys who actually had a chance of sniffing the end zone week to week. Or heck even Fournette is now adding a dumpoff floor. Mixon has to be the most perennially overdrafted RB each year and just sinks teams year after year but is hyped up every off-season. I'll buy in when I see any suggestion the Bengals get 5 guys in front of him better than high-school tackle bags.

I didn't draft him last year and wouldn't have. I liked what I saw though to close out the season. I had him the prior year and wasn't impressed even though he led the AFC in rushing. I do like what is ahead in 2020.

Edited by FitzMagic

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53 minutes ago, DeliciousGravy said:

Tell me what on earth you see in Joe Mixon that you think he'll be top 5. I see a guy who right now isn't top 5 in the AFC. 

 

He finished RB12 this year after the terrible start, with a terrible OL, swapping QBs back and forth, and a first-time-HC-and-playcaller.  AJG was out.

He's getting Joe Burrow next year.  OL will be healthy, and they'll probably add more to it.  2nd year of a new offense is typically better than the 1st.  Taylor appears to have learned to feature Mixon.  AJG may be back.

 

He's a top 3 talent at the position right now, in my opinion.  I think CMC and Saquon finish ahead of him, then I could see a number of guys like Mixon, Zeke, Dalvin, Kamara, Chubb, Henry, or Jones vying for top 5 overall finishes.  I'll take Mixon, assuming his cost will be lower than all of them.

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Mixon talent is elite. 

Situation cannot be worse than it was this season and he still performed fairly well stats wise.

Guy pretty much matched his ADP having had a woeful start to the year.

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On 1/1/2020 at 6:12 AM, Nickmo said:

Buying:

QB: Josh Allen, great floor for those of us who like to wait on QB

RB: Philip Lindsay, proved he wasn't a one year wonder, and Freeman didn't make any substantial progress as his 1B. Plus he's on a contract year if they don't get a deal done before then. 

WR: Chris Godwin, I didn't like him at his cost this year and was dead wrong. 

TE: Tyler Higbee, they'd have to be complete morons to not try to feature him next season. He's a solid blocker from what i understands as well which could benefit a run game that needs all the help it can get, theoretically keeping him on the field in most all situations. 

Fading:

QB: Sam Darnold, thought he and the whole Jets team would take a nice step forward, but nothing about the Jets offense showed great improvement. They had as soft of a schedule as you could get and he still underwhelmed as he played behind a bad oline. Doesn't get to play the NFC east next year either.

RB: Josh Jacobs, his usage in the passing game was maddening and I'm not confident that will change next year. I think he'll be overdrafted and a better real life RB than fantasy.

WR: Devante Parker, not buying it. 56% catch rate, 7 drops, on a team that had no other choice but to target him. Plus he got paid. I'll pass.

Regarding Jacobs, it was really confusing why they weren't using him in the passing game.  After hearing about his injury, and seeing some videos, I believe this (the shoulder) is the reason he wasn't getting many targets.  If you saw any of the videos, it looked like he had trouble raising his arm much more than enough to take a carry.   He'd drop it back down almost immediately after the play.  

Maybe this is a case or rationalization but he looked very limited in movement.  

That being said, Richardson is a pretty good 3rd down back.  But it won't back me off Jacobs.

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