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Luis Robert 2020 Outlook

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On 1/19/2020 at 5:05 PM, Sidearmer said:

Given that the announcement was made on January 2, I ran the NFBC ADP from January 3 - today, and Robert is currently at an ADP of 88. Small sample size so should be interesting to see where he ends up, but this is the best guess as of now. If he ends around 88, it seems like very good value.

 

Another update on his ADP. Up to an ADP of 87 from January 3 - January 27 (today). Again, this seems like a really nice value. I would expect this to continue to rise slowly.

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2 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Another update on his ADP. Up to an ADP of 87 from January 3 - January 27 (today). Again, this seems like a really nice value. I would expect this to continue to rise slowly.

Wish I drafted now cause this is great value

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20 minutes ago, hockeyfan77 said:

Wish I drafted now cause this is great value

I just did my first money league draft last night and took him 90th overall. This is why I like drafting early. If he crushes against spring training pitching he’ll rise quickly.

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On 1/27/2020 at 12:32 PM, Sidearmer said:

Another update on his ADP. Up to an ADP of 87 from January 3 - January 27 (today). Again, this seems like a really nice value. I would expect this to continue to rise slowly.

 

Now up to 82. Going to continue to move up. I'd think by March it will settle into the mid to low 70's.

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24 minutes ago, MikeCat95 said:

Where would you draft this guy in a start up dynasty league?

I’d say around round 4 in a 10 teamer roughly 

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Already there if you start from Jan 12 to present.

21 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Now up to 82. Going to continue to move up. I'd think by March it will settle into the mid to low 70's.

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vlad was around 50 last year if i remember. seems like similar hype fantasy wise

4th rd in dynasty doesnt seem likely

Edited by colepenhagen

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Already there if you start from Jan 12 to present.

 

So essentially his ADP is kind of unreliable, and you probably have to reach to get him. Probably 5-6 rounds in 12 teamer sounds like is his actual price.

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23 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

So essentially his ADP is kind of unreliable, and you probably have to reach to get him. Probably 5-6 rounds in 12 teamer sounds like is his actual price.

Agree it settles around 60

 

Disagree on reliability. It’s consistently moving up since Jan. Lots of the NFBC DC data based reliability for news (long term K) is murky given so many week long drafts are going on with random finish dates 

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1 hour ago, colepenhagen said:

vlad was around 50 last year if i remember. seems like similar hype fantasy wise

4th rd in dynasty doesnt seem likely

Interesting analogy with Vlad. His seemed more frenzy and less FB based since he hadn’t hit HRs consistently yet and it was based on a batting title and crazy steamer.

Roberts offers 20 plus steals upside which is why even sharps are getting some shares.

 

interesting article this morning from NBC Sports about how it’s insanely rare to go 20-20 with no MLB experience. Definitely gives one pause.

 

Edited by Magoo

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1 hour ago, Magoo said:

Interesting analogy with Vlad. His seemed more frenzy and less FB based since he hadn’t hit HRs consistently yet and it was based on a batting title and crazy steamer.

Roberts offers 20 plus steals upside which is why even sharps are getting some shares.

 

interesting article this morning from NBC Sports about how it’s insanely rare to go 20-20 with no MLB experience. Definitely gives one pause.

 

probably has a good amount to do with not playing a full season as a rookie. dont think there are that many players that didnt get their feet wet the year prior to a promotion that get to break camp with the club for a full season.

tatis, acuna, both would of killed 20/20 and probably biggio if they got 150+ gp.

 

 

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Correct. Most Rookie years is not them starting on opening day + going 20/20 is very rare in comparison to the MLB player pool as a whole.

Technically Trea Turner didn't go 20/20 last year. Or Victor Robles, Puig, Merrifeld, Tim Anderson, etc etc. So you leave out things when you have a very specific cutoff like 20/20.

(Villar, Acuna, Yelich, Pham, Marte, JoRam, Story, Lindor, Santana) That is it. 9 players

That is only 4.3% of the player pool that had at least 400 PAs last year.

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22 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

probably has a good amount to do with not playing a full season as a rookie. dont think there are that many players that didnt get their feet wet the year prior to a promotion that get to break camp with the club for a full season.

tatis, acuna, both would of killed 20/20 and probably biggio if they got 150+ gp.

 

 

Good point. Soriano come to mind as an upside comp. Wonder how much the cups of coffee helped.

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On 1/27/2020 at 12:20 PM, hockeyfan77 said:

Wish I drafted now cause this is great value

How can you say a top 90 pick is "great value" for a guy with zero MLB experience who had a 5:1 K:BB ratio at AAA? 

Yes, the upside is enormous, but the hype is out of control. Everyone keeps saying how his price could skyrocket if he has a big spring, but nobody wants to admit that it works both ways. If he has a terrible spring his price will fall.

Edited by cs3
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1 hour ago, cs3 said:

How can you say a top 90 pick is "great value" for a guy with zero MLB experience who had a 5:1 K:BB ratio at AAA? 

Yes, the upside is enormous, but the hype is out of control. Everyone keeps saying how his price could skyrocket if he has a big spring, but nobody wants to admit that it works both ways. If he has a terrible spring his price will fall.

with the recent prospect hits. acuna, alonso, soto, gleyber,bellinger, tatitis, robles, keston, bichette, ohtani, biggio,  (not really hyped) senzel (great pre inj.) eloy,

vlad was the probably the biggest bust

which bat was drafted as a massive bust recently that costed a premium top 100 top 75 pick? dont think moncada costed that

 

dont see how you can say that any players 75-100 are any safer or have that upside

all projections have him around 25/25 270 with under 150 games. so robert really does have 1st rd upside. correa, benintendi, muncy, soler, brantely castellanos, mcneil, laureano, ozuna. all consensus rank above robert. dont see how any of those names are sure things or dont already have durability concerns.

 

dont think the hype is out of control but im sure some of those names listed above will have good/great years just hard to know which ones will.

personally dont see a bad spring as anything that will affect a high ranking prospect much. not like hes going to drop to 125-150 with bad spring

Edited by colepenhagen

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5 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

with the recent prospect hits. acuna, alonso, soto, gleyber,bellinger, tatitis, robles, keston, bichette, ohtani, biggio,  (not really hyped) senzel (great pre inj.) eloy,

None of those guys had K:BB ratios as poor as Robert in the minors. In fact, most of those guys were so hyped in part because they showed great plate discipline. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, cs3 said:

None of those guys had K:BB ratios as poor as Robert in the minors. In fact, most of those guys were so hyped in part because they showed great plate discipline. 

 

 

sample size hes cuban. moncada, cespedes, puig, even cuban babe has over 3 k/bb in his mlb career

 

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7 hours ago, cs3 said:

How can you say a top 90 pick is "great value" for a guy with zero MLB experience who had a 5:1 K:BB ratio at AAA? 

Yes, the upside is enormous, but the hype is out of control. Everyone keeps saying how his price could skyrocket if he has a big spring, but nobody wants to admit that it works both ways. If he has a terrible spring his price will fall.

Cause I'm high on the guy...I own him in dynasty and keeper...Am I not allowed to have an opinion....Also, I did post that a week ago, I like him a lot at 90 obviously not as much as 70 or wherever his is going right now...

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In keeper leagues I would definitely try to get him.

In redraft leagues I dunno. I feel like he's either going to fly out the gate or start off with a .165 April. Could have a stint in the minors if he struggles.

 

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I really doubt the White Sox will send him to the minors since his pay will be the same regardless. His defense in centre will keep him in the bigs even if his struggles push him down to 7 in the lineup during a slump. Make no mistake after the slump ends he will be back in the 1 slot ahead of Moncado, Abreu Eloy.

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2 hours ago, papasmurf said:

 

In redraft leagues I dunno. I feel like he's either going to fly out the gate or start off with a .165 April. Could have a stint in the minors if he struggles.

 

 

That's what your bench is for. I understand not reaching for him in redraft, but I think this is a guy I want on my teams.

.

Edited by Members_Only_76
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For deep leagues, it would be tough to recover if you bypass a surer guy for the high prospect and he bombs.

Also, do we know where he is gonna start in the lineup. He might hit 7 or lower to start couldn't he?

Just things to consider for early drafters - like me.

I am eying him, but haven't decided yet.

(To reiterate, I am not bearish, I am just trying to pull away from the hype to get a realistic assessment.)

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