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oswald737

Luis Robert 2020 Outlook

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9 hours ago, UberRebel said:


This is why it’s important to understand the distinction. Tatis for all his contact issues last year wasn’t nearly as bad as Robert this year. That’s why Robert’s profile is worrisome despite all of the HRs and exit velocities

 

Analysis such as this always fails to take into account the human factor. Robert is a rookie and is obviously going to be adapting and attempting to improve upon his flaws as a rookie. His K% could easily improve next year with a few minor tweaks. 

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On 9/5/2020 at 6:37 AM, 2ndCitySox said:

you could probably find a wide range of players that have a similar stat line. Some guys are more successful swinging a lot than others. 

Not really, pretty narrow i'd bet.

He's an exceptional talent, though. So I wouldn't worry about it as much with him as with many others.

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4 hours ago, Willsea33 said:

 

Analysis such as this always fails to take into account the human factor. Robert is a rookie and is obviously going to be adapting and attempting to improve upon his flaws as a rookie. His K% could easily improve next year with a few minor tweaks. 


Who here has said that Robert can’t or won’t improve? The point is he has some red flags that get masked because of his physical gifts. It hasn’t been 60 games yet and over the course of 162 games we’ve seen players look invincible and then get exposed by pitchers and scouts. Those hitters may or may not adjust and that’s how the game goes. Maybe it happens to Luis, maybe it doesn’t.


I don’t see much bashing of Robert here yet people are already getting defensive when people point out that his plate approach more often than not leads to serious struggles. 

 

We could sit here and just pump sunshine and salivate over every Robert HR without ever talking anything negative. But that doesn’t help us get a better understanding of his true skills and value. Don’t you want to hear a different perspective other than he’s the best thing since sliced bread?

 

Edited by UberRebel
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14 hours ago, UberRebel said:


This is why it’s important to understand the distinction. Tatis for all his contact issues last year wasn’t nearly as bad as Robert this year. That’s why Robert’s profile is worrisome despite all of the HRs and exit velocities

 

We're seeing more of these guys with ugly profiles: (Tatis, Baez, Anderson, Hiura, Robert) still produce.

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Tatis's big rookie year came with a lot of extreme luck. He outperformed the under-the-hood numbers by a fair margin. That's the biggest reason he was red-flagged. There was no reason to expect a repeat, much less an improvement over 2019. If anything a course-correction was in order.

Robert is a different case. He has not been the recipient of the same sort of luck. His xSLG is actually 50 points higher than his actual slugging %. He's also already making adjustments month to month. Just 8 BB vs 39 SO in his first 27 games; 6 and 10 in the 12 games since. He's gotten his O-Swing % below 50%, finally. He doesn't have to improve to be an absolute stud bc his current numbers are very real, but he's already showing signs that he's adjusting. He could do nothing different and put up .265/35/25 seasons over the next decade with no trouble. He could to no one's surprise also become the CF version of Tatis. You can make that statement about maybe a handful of players.

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Not surprising what's happening now. Growing pains.

I was looking at his FG batted ball log, it's pretty depressing lol.

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The worst part is that he isn't even hitting mistake pitches, hangers, middle-middle fastballs. He's even making defensive blunders now. Why he hasn't been given a day or two off to reset his mind, I have no idea.

Oh wait, I do have an idea. Rick Renteria. Same dude that is still batting Encarnacion in the middle of the lineup every day.

Obviously Robert is clearly a drop at this point. Find someone that's hot to hopefully ride the last 5 games and and get you an extra roto point rather than cost you one.

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This dude couldn’t even get a hit in a slow pitch, beer league softball game right about now. What a brutal time to go ice cold. Take the rest of the season off, please, and spare my lineups from the inevitable 0 for 16 with 10k’s.

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We knew this would happen eventually. The plate discipline just isn't there yet. His BB% is fine, but that K% just isn't going to fly. If he can eventually get that number in the 20-25% range, watch out.

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I did find one article regarding the slump that thinks that's all it really is. Obviously, there are still things for him to improve on, but this doesn't look like it's driven by some major flaw. In a normal season, my inclination would be to hold him through the slump, but obviously this is happening at a bad time with the short season wrapping up.

https://www.si.com/mlb/whitesox/features/a-dive-into-luis-roberts-september-slump

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He's gonna be just fine fellas. For 2021 anyway. His biggest foe is his own hack manager, known idiot, Rick Renteria. And albeit Renteria is quite the formidable opponent, I think Luis is talented enough to overcome and succeed in spite his manager's moronism. That moronism mainly being, where the Renteria continues to allow Robert to sink from where he bats him within the Sox lineup. This is not a 7-hitter, Rick. How about try moving him up in the order and protecting him with one or two of the bevy of big bats you have behind him in the lineup, as opposed to the black-holes who you've had immediately succeeding him in the lineup (ahem...Nomar Mazara) for where Robert's gone something like 4 for his 90 over the past month??  How about that there, Rick?....You bag of suck you.

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