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brockpapersizer

Nelson Cruz 2020 Outlook

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I would like to take this quote from another thread

 

"If a UTIL-only player doesn't give you a headache, you clearly haven't played FBB for long. "

 

I couldn't disagree more with the notion, and the numbers back it up.  Unless youre in a very shallow league where there are great hitters on the waiver wire, there is nothing wrong with clogging up your UTL with an elite hitter.  Having someone who has OF ellig in your UT spot who is a worse hitter than Cruz is not helping you, it's hurting you. 

In a redraft league, the age isn't enough of a risk to take a worse player just because he won't lose it all.  As discussed in the Garrett Hampson thread, people underestimate the bust level of their own draft in redrafts. It's high after the first 3-5 rounds.  His production is quite similar to JD Martinez at a huge discount. I would bet on Nelson Cruz being a beast once again over someone breaking out who hasn't before. 

 

In a Dynasty startup, sure, his value should take a decent sized hit, but chances are his ADP is so much lower than his already undervalued ADP that at a certain point he becomes worth it even if you only get a year or two out of him.

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The position eligibility argument is overrated. If the player is elite, he can play anywhere. Getting bad players just because they have more positions is a complete waste of capital and defeats the purpose of getting the multi position players anyway.

As for Cruz, I think most of his value is underrated due to his age. People are waiting for the cliff season to happen but he just keeps producing. 6 straight seasons of 37+ HR. Last year was his career year, at age 38. 41 HR in only 120 games is hard to beat. Playing full time at the DH i have no concerns over him getting rested. Maybe he misses some inter-league games but that's it. Even if he declines a bit he should make up the production just from playing more games.

Last year his ADP ended at around 90, I'd expect a bump into high 70's to low 80's this year, but he will probably be able to beat that value pretty easily once again.

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30 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

The position eligibility argument is overrated. If the player is elite, he can play anywhere. Getting bad players just because they have more positions is a complete waste of capital and defeats the purpose of getting the multi position players anyway.

As for Cruz, I think most of his value is underrated due to his age. People are waiting for the cliff season to happen but he just keeps producing. 6 straight seasons of 37+ HR. Last year was his career year, at age 38. 41 HR in only 120 games is hard to beat. Playing full time at the DH i have no concerns over him getting rested. Maybe he misses some inter-league games but that's it. Even if he declines a bit he should make up the production just from playing more games.

Last year his ADP ended at around 90, I'd expect a bump into high 70's to low 80's this year, but he will probably be able to beat that value pretty easily once again.

Couldn't agree more!

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For the sixth year in a row I am going to pass due to age.  I fully anticipate another stellar year despite the age.

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As Brockpapersizer correctly pointed out, the market has been projecting the age related decline/death of Cruz for years now. For most of last decade honestly. And he’s been someone I’ve owned for something like 7 or 8 straight years.

One day Father Time will get Cruz, but it’s just as likely to be retirement as performance decline. He looks like the new Ortiz.

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On 1/3/2020 at 11:20 PM, B&F said:

For the sixth year in a row I am going to pass due to age.  I fully anticipate another stellar year despite the age.

Ha, same. I feel like I've never owned this guy and he's never not made me pay.

I was a Jorge Soler mark in 2015 and I remember touting him over Cruz. Ooff.

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5 hours ago, fletch44 said:

Ha, same. I feel like I've never owned this guy and he's never not made me pay.

I was a Jorge Soler mark in 2015 and I remember touting him over Cruz. Ooff.

 

Soler is a perfect example. He's had one good year ever ( and I've always liked him)

The chances of Nelson Cruz being an absolute bust this year is a lot less than a guy who isn't proven but young. 

 

Not sure what the worry is about Nelson Cruz, he's less risky than the hitters that go around him generally. 

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On 1/3/2020 at 10:32 PM, Sidearmer said:

The position eligibility argument is overrated. If the player is elite, he can play anywhere. Getting bad players just because they have more positions is a complete waste of capital and defeats the purpose of getting the multi position players anyway.

As for Cruz, I think most of his value is underrated due to his age. People are waiting for the cliff season to happen but he just keeps producing. 6 straight seasons of 37+ HR. Last year was his career year, at age 38. 41 HR in only 120 games is hard to beat. Playing full time at the DH i have no concerns over him getting rested. Maybe he misses some inter-league games but that's it. Even if he declines a bit he should make up the production just from playing more games.

Last year his ADP ended at around 90, I'd expect a bump into high 70's to low 80's this year, but he will probably be able to beat that value pretty easily once again.

 

Disagree. 

My general rule of thumb on how to prepare for auction/roto is to pay for position players, but not paying for C, Closers or Util.  Focus on Middle Infielders and at least 1 Elite SP and 2 top quality OF.  Especially important not to pay for Util in H2H.

Cruz's value is simply because people write him off every year due to age but he performs like a stud 28 year old.  The Util is a hindrance just not one that offsets his discounted elite bat.  

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Problem is there’s good power guys being drafted where he is who can actually play a position.  Donaldson, Mancini, grandal, Soler.  Cruz was banged up in the second half last year and played through it.  Scalded the ball at that.  He’s a guy who really benefited from the juiced ball.  Basically had a career year at age 39. 
 

We all know the risks and he’s kinda defied logic to this point.    If someone wanted to dump him in dynasty I’d be all over it.

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Nelson Cruz is UTIL only and oooold old old, due to break down... He's an easy do not draft.

Now if you excuse me I'll take him for a massive discount for his annual elite power production.

Am I doing this right? Let's keep that price down as usual no need to get too rosy in this thread. 😄😄

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On 1/7/2020 at 11:49 PM, KingJoffrey said:

 

Disagree. 

My general rule of thumb on how to prepare for auction/roto is to pay for position players, but not paying for C, Closers or Util.  Focus on Middle Infielders and at least 1 Elite SP and 2 top quality OF.  Especially important not to pay for Util in H2H.

Cruz's value is simply because people write him off every year due to age but he performs like a stud 28 year old.  The Util is a hindrance just not one that offsets his discounted elite bat.  

 

Yes that is what I said, he is cheap because of his age not UTIL only.

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His Steamer projection is .282/38 HR/109 RBI/93 R. That would make him the #16 ranked hitter according to their projections. 

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36 minutes ago, Sine_cera said:

His Steamer projection is .282/38 HR/109 RBI/93 R. That would make him the #16 ranked hitter according to their projections. 

Another year of undervalued Nellie. I’ll keep adding shares. I’m as big of a fan of Yordan as anyone but I’m passing on him in the late 3rd/early 4th and scooping up Nellie in the 8th all day.

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Posted (edited)

spacer.png

 

Old man Cruz? His legs are gone? Sign me up again.

Edited by Evincar
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Had wrist issues(ruptured tendon) Didn't need surgery so would assume it's completely healed and won't be an issue this season. The addition of Donaldson to an already solid lineup is a plus. 

At the moment on CBS his ADP is in the 50's. Not sure if I will end up owning this season, but enjoyed owning him last season. He had a few monstrous weeks where he carried my team.

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Posted (edited)
On 1/7/2020 at 1:00 AM, fawkes_mulder said:

 

One day Father Time will get Cruz, but it’s just as likely to be retirement as performance decline. He looks like the new Ortiz.

 

Much like Ortiz, Cruz's ability to continue to not just avoid declining, but actually enhance his performance (despite his age), is really amazing.

Edited by Overlord

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He’s the new David Ortiz for me.  I will say to the OP, a UTIL player is a little bit annoying.  For guys like Ortiz or Cruz I’d say it makes them a $10-$13 discount in auction drafts and it’s about a $3-$5 inconvenience in my opinion 

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14 hours ago, merlin401 said:

He’s the new David Ortiz for me.  I will say to the OP, a UTIL player is a little bit annoying.  For guys like Ortiz or Cruz I’d say it makes them a $10-$13 discount in auction drafts and it’s about a $3-$5 inconvenience in my opinion 

And that's just for redraft...consider the dynasty discount for cruz. If your team has a chance of winning you're almost crazy NOT to target cruz in dynasties

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, merlin401 said:

He’s the new David Ortiz for me.  I will say to the OP, a UTIL player is a little bit annoying.  For guys like Ortiz or Cruz I’d say it makes them a $10-$13 discount in auction drafts and it’s about a $3-$5 inconvenience in my opinion 

 

A UTIL-only player is essentially a gamble on the health of your team and a calculated risk depending on how shallow your league is.

Your team stays relatively healthy all year and you play in a relatively shallow league?  The risk of having a UTIL-only player is overblown.  

Your team has myriad significant injuries and you play in a relatively deep league?  A UTIL-only player is going to feel like a goddamn anchor and will represent a constant headache in terms of roster management.

YMMV

Edited by Overlord

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Model of consitency. Means a lot in this shortened season, which apparently isn’t the year father time catches up to him. 

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Another season of outperforming his ADP is likely at this point.  Without looking, I assume he's close to a decade of doing that and nobody else is really that close.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Chest-Rockwell said:

When discussing Nelson Cruz, one must understand that he is not human, he is a machine. That is all.

Like I was saying, he is not human. Yet another dong. 4 for 5, 2 HR, 4 runs, 7 RBI on this lazy Sunday afternoon. Ho-hum. This machine is still fully operational and requires no maintenance.

Edited by Chest-Rockwell

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