Ecofolux

Matt Olson 2020 Outlook

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Entering age 26 season. .896 OPS last season, 36 bombs in just 127 games, 134 WrC+, 50.3 Hard Contact%, was very consistent month to month. Is there another gear to Olson's offense or are we just hoping for a full season of him? Something like .260  40  100?

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Last year’s numbers prorate to 45 HR/91 R/114 RBI over a full season. His ADP is around 66 and I feel like he’d be going higher than that if he didn’t get hurt. No reason to question his durability either - he recovered quicker than expected and with no ill effects from the much-feared hamate injury.

He’s a Statcast darling whose xwOBA (.386) was better than his wOBA (.368) for a 2nd straight season. The park probably has something to do with that, but his power is certainly very real. He turns 26 around the time the season starts, so really just entering his prime.

I see very little not to like here. I think he’s a safe pick at his current ADP who also has a high ceiling with 50 HR potential.

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He w

19 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Last year’s numbers prorate to 45 HR/91 R/114 RBI over a full season. His ADP is around 66 and I feel like he’d be going higher than that if he didn’t get hurt. No reason to question his durability either - he recovered quicker than expected and with no ill effects from the much-feared hamate injury.

He’s a Statcast darling whose xwOBA (.386) was better than his wOBA (.368) for a 2nd straight season. The park probably has something to do with that, but his power is certainly very real. He turns 26 around the time the season starts, so really just entering his prime.

I see very little not to like here. I think he’s a safe pick at his current ADP who also has a high ceiling with 50 HR potential.

Agreed, he will be a on lot of my teams for this very reason

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23 hours ago, SpartyOn4 said:

Last year’s numbers prorate to 45 HR/91 R/114 RBI over a full season. His ADP is around 66 and I feel like he’d be going higher than that if he didn’t get hurt. No reason to question his durability either - he recovered quicker than expected and with no ill effects from the much-feared hamate injury.

He’s a Statcast darling whose xwOBA (.386) was better than his wOBA (.368) for a 2nd straight season. The park probably has something to do with that, but his power is certainly very real. He turns 26 around the time the season starts, so really just entering his prime.

I see very little not to like here. I think he’s a safe pick at his current ADP who also has a high ceiling with 50 HR potential.

 

Agree with this. He played 162 games in 2018. Then had a freak injury due to hit by pitch and returned quicker than expected and stayed healthy. I was nervous last year because the hamate could linger but he put those worries to bed. There's really no reason to assign any injury risk to him. He's also a 2 time gold glove winner at first base, so he's likely rarely ever seeing the bench just due to his value in the field.

He made an effort last year to pull more and it led to a career high in hard hit percentage. Also had a career high in line drive and fly ball percentages, an elite combination. There's certainly some average risk but there is with any power hitter. He has the ability to hit 50 HR and that upside should more than offset that risk.

Another factor I also like is that he put 5 bunts in play in 2019, all of which went for hits. He hadn't had a bunt hit in his career prior to 2019. If he continues to show a willingness to drop down bunts it will help with the shift and bump up his average. Here's an article discussing his propensity to bunt: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/athletics/how-slugger-matt-olson-beating-shifts-bunting-ability

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First of all let me say I like Olson and really hope he has a monster year. Frankly, as one of my main keepers, he better!

Playing devil's advocate here though: Olson has always stunk against lefties and hasn't shown improvement at all against them since he's debuted. He's also not really that great at home. I think a repeat of his 2018 season is more possible than we think.

 

cbs article:

"Olson will still play his home games at Oakland Coliseum, where he hit .236 with a .777 OPS last year, and he'll still face lefties approximately one-third of the time after hitting .223 with a .767 against them. Those splits have never been in his favor, and both make too much sense to dismiss. It gives him a thin margin for error both on the road and against righties and may help explain why his numbers were suspiciously lacking in 2018."

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I feel like in a normal season I’d be all over Olson, but I’m getting a soft “so underrated he’s overrated” vibe.  Still, I think I’m mostly a buyer- his peripherals are dreamy and it’s not like a 250-35 HR season will ruin you. Upside 275-280 with 40 HR 

Edited by Fbaseballgod
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8 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

First of all let me say I like Olson and really hope he has a monster year. Frankly, as one of my main keepers, he better!

Playing devil's advocate here though: Olson has always stunk against lefties and hasn't shown improvement at all against them since he's debuted. He's also not really that great at home. I think a repeat of his 2018 season is more possible than we think.

 

cbs article:

"Olson will still play his home games at Oakland Coliseum, where he hit .236 with a .777 OPS last year, and he'll still face lefties approximately one-third of the time after hitting .223 with a .767 against them. Those splits have never been in his favor, and both make too much sense to dismiss. It gives him a thin margin for error both on the road and against righties and may help explain why his numbers were suspiciously lacking in 2018."


I don’t mind this in H2H because if you have decent depth. It makes it easier to know when to sit him and go with a more favorable matchup

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10 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

First of all let me say I like Olson and really hope he has a monster year. Frankly, as one of my main keepers, he better!

Playing devil's advocate here though: Olson has always stunk against lefties and hasn't shown improvement at all against them since he's debuted. He's also not really that great at home. I think a repeat of his 2018 season is more possible than we think.

 

You are somewhat incorrect.  He has shown he can hit around .250 around lefties.  Last year his BABIP against lefties was pretty low, but he showed an all time high in power metrics against LHP (with an insanely high ISO of .255 against lefties.)  He also started striking out less against LHP then RHP.

His Barrel % against lefties keeps going up, and while he will never be a .300 hitter, he might in aggregate get .280 45HR next year. His statcast says his LHP average should have been up (with an aggregate average of .280)

Nothing in his underlying numbers suggest he will be closer to 2018 then 2019.  If anything his metrics were even better than 2017!

 

Edited by Hellgrammite
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He's still pull/FB heavy lefty. The way he murders the ball is what's keeping the BABIP touching .290+ range. What would otherwise be a lot worse for other left handed hitters with his profile.

Just as easy go backwards to .240. Not because he will be hitting balls any less hard or less often. Just that if its not a HR or LD, he's probably out. Doesn't get the margin of error that other hitters get for accumulating hits. 

 

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20 hours ago, Hellgrammite said:

You are somewhat incorrect.  He has shown he can hit around .250 around lefties.  Last year his BABIP against lefties was pretty low, but he showed an all time high in power metrics against LHP (with an insanely high ISO of .255 against lefties.)  He also started striking out less against LHP then RHP.

His Barrel % against lefties keeps going up, and while he will never be a .300 hitter, he might in aggregate get .280 45HR next year. His statcast says his LHP average should have been up (with an aggregate average of .280)

Nothing in his underlying numbers suggest he will be closer to 2018 then 2019.  If anything his metrics were even better than 2017!

You are somewhat misleading.

AVG against Lefties     .196 (2017)             .251 (2018)        .223 (2019)          

 wRC+ against lefties    105 (2017)              99 (2018)          101 (2019)           

K% against lefties         26.4% (2017)       22.3% (2018)       23.7% (2019)      

BABIP against lefties     .179 (2017)           .314 (2018)         .226 (2019)         

 

I think it's fair to say he hasn't shown much improvement against lefties. Some would say his BABIP in 2018 was inflated, he looks like a low-mid 200's BABIP guy at this point. I'm not bashing Olson, he could make adjustments and improve against lefties. Yes his ISO was very good in 2019 (similar to his breakout debut). As I said, I really hope he has a monster year. I just see people almost guaranteeing .270, 40+ 100+, and I'm saying it's a little more risky than that. I don't think he will have a 2018-type season in 2020, I'm just saying it's more possible than people are giving credit for. 

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On 2/10/2020 at 8:54 AM, Ecofolux said:

I don't think he will have a 2018-type season in 2020, I'm just saying it's more possible than people are giving credit for. 

 

Anything is possible, but you note that while his batting average against lefties hasn't shown much improvement, he is crushing LHP far more than ever if he is making contact.  That is improvement, and should be recognized.

While his wRC+ was average against LHP, he was 8th last year in HRs against LHP as a LHH, which is pretty impressive considering he missed a month+.

All I am saying is if he doesn't improve his average against lefties, he still is one of the best power hitters as a lefty against lefties, which shows fantasy wise that the floor is higher than it appears.  I mean he had a 10.8% barrel against lefties last year.  That is better than most right-handed hitters.

 

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On 1/4/2020 at 7:16 PM, Ecofolux said:

Entering age 26 season. .896 OPS last season, 36 bombs in just 127 games, 134 WrC+, 50.3 Hard Contact%, was very consistent month to month. Is there another gear to Olson's offense or are we just hoping for a full season of him? Something like .260  40  100?

 

huge fan tbh.

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On 1/5/2020 at 8:30 PM, Sidearmer said:

 

Agree with this. He played 162 games in 2018. Then had a freak injury due to hit by pitch and returned quicker than expected and stayed healthy. I was nervous last year because the hamate could linger but he put those worries to bed. There's really no reason to assign any injury risk to him. He's also a 2 time gold glove winner at first base, so he's likely rarely ever seeing the bench just due to his value in the field.

He made an effort last year to pull more and it led to a career high in hard hit percentage. Also had a career high in line drive and fly ball percentages, an elite combination. There's certainly some average risk but there is with any power hitter. He has the ability to hit 50 HR and that upside should more than offset that risk.

Another factor I also like is that he put 5 bunts in play in 2019, all of which went for hits. He hadn't had a bunt hit in his career prior to 2019. If he continues to show a willingness to drop down bunts it will help with the shift and bump up his average. Here's an article discussing his propensity to bunt: https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/athletics/how-slugger-matt-olson-beating-shifts-bunting-ability

 

could honestly never understand why guys like Texiera wouldnt just lay down a bunt.  a mediocre bunt is a guarateed hit.  and about 10 of those in a year can bump your avg 15-20 points

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5 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

 

could honestly never understand why guys like Texiera wouldnt just lay down a bunt.  a mediocre bunt is a guarateed hit.  and about 10 of those in a year can bump your avg 15-20 points

 

There's so many guys like this, if more players figure it out they can basically eliminate a part of the shift and even if the bunts aren't overly succesful could have an effect on other balls in play.

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5 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

There's so many guys like this, if more players figure it out they can basically eliminate a part of the shift and even if the bunts aren't overly succesful could have an effect on other balls in play.

Cause they have probably never been asked to bunt...I do agree they should though

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6 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

could honestly never understand why guys like Texiera wouldnt just lay down a bunt.  a mediocre bunt is a guarateed hit.  and about 10 of those in a year can bump your avg 15-20 points

 

44 minutes ago, hockeyfan77 said:

Cause they have probably never been asked to bunt...I do agree they should though

Teixeira was a well-rounded player, he could bunt if needed to.  He was asked to but refused to adjust.  He said he was not paid to bunt he was paid to hit HR.


On topic of Olson, he's probably going to be undervalued a bit (I hope)  Will target him in a lot of drafts.

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1 hour ago, MrBrown said:

 

Teixeira was a well-rounded player, he could bunt if needed to.  He was asked to but refused to adjust.  He said he was not paid to bunt he was paid to hit HR.


On topic of Olson, he's probably going to be undervalued a bit (I hope)  Will target him in a lot of drafts.

Didn't know that about Teixeria, but I think he may have been in the minority of players knowing how to bunt...Love Olsen in my OBP, OPS league

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Oh gawd, it's the bloody bunt narrative again.  

Bunting is way harder than people give it credit.  I wouldn't expect him to bunt his way into BA glory

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You don't want power hitters to bunt very often. Bunting will never deter the shift because they WANT the guy who can crush with mediocre speed to try it. t's utility is simply the element of surprise which was used effectively last year. You don't want him to do in any more then that. He needed 5 successful bunts to pull off a .267 BA.

Teixeria Bunted? It says he's never bunted once in his entire career. 

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Against a nasty lefty that he doesn't feel like he can drive, no prob with laying one down to get on base. Otherwise, swing to do damage please.

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Posted (edited)

Can't figure out how to properly embed a tweet but this thread is worth a read. 

 

I took Olson #33 overall in the RW Mock #4 and it was pretty widely criticized as a major reach, but I think there's a huge grouping of hitters that go anywhere from late 3rd to the end of the 5th who I have a hard time separating. I think Olson is  *safe* for 30 HR, but more likely 40+ if he stays healthy (he hit 36 in 127 games last year after suffering a hamate injury in March). He showed real progress as a hitter, to the point where I think he could actually be a .270-.275 hitter. He hit .282 in 266 AB after the ASB last season. He hits in the middle of a very good offense (#8 in runs scored last year) and there could be improvement from Laureano and a bounce back year from Khris Davis. His counting stats should be strong (and remember he drove in 91 runs in 127 games played last year). 1B is surprisingly shallow this year, and I don't like the build of my teams if I don't have a top option there. After Bellinger, Freeman, and Alonso are off the board, Olson is the best available in my eyes. 

 

 

Edited by mjb03003
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21 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

Can't figure out how to properly embed a tweet but this thread is worth a read. 

 

I took Olson #33 overall in the RW Mock #4 and it was pretty widely criticized as a major reach, but I think there's a huge grouping of hitters that go anywhere from late 3rd to the end of the 5th who I have a hard time separating. I think Olson is  *safe* for 30 HR, but more likely 40+ if he stays healthy (he hit 36 in 127 games last year after suffering a hamate injury in March). He showed real progress as a hitter, to the point where I think he could actually be a .270-.275 hitter. He hit .282 in 266 AB after the ASB last season. He hits in the middle of a very good offense (#8 in runs scored last year) and there could be improvement from Laureano and a bounce back year from Khris Davis. His counting stats should be strong (and remember he drove in 91 runs in 127 games played last year). 1B is surprisingly shallow this year, and I don't like the build of my teams if I don't have a top option there. After Bellinger, Freeman, and Alonso are off the board, Olson is the best available in my eyes. 

 

 

Agreed...I like him there although 4th round is better if he is ranked low in your draft

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41 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

Can't figure out how to properly embed a tweet but this thread is worth a read. 

 

I took Olson #33 overall in the RW Mock #4 and it was pretty widely criticized as a major reach, but I think there's a huge grouping of hitters that go anywhere from late 3rd to the end of the 5th who I have a hard time separating. I think Olson is  *safe* for 30 HR, but more likely 40+ if he stays healthy (he hit 36 in 127 games last year after suffering a hamate injury in March). He showed real progress as a hitter, to the point where I think he could actually be a .270-.275 hitter. He hit .282 in 266 AB after the ASB last season. He hits in the middle of a very good offense (#8 in runs scored last year) and there could be improvement from Laureano and a bounce back year from Khris Davis. His counting stats should be strong (and remember he drove in 91 runs in 127 games played last year). 1B is surprisingly shallow this year, and I don't like the build of my teams if I don't have a top option there. After Bellinger, Freeman, and Alonso are off the board, Olson is the best available in my eyes. 

 

 

 

1) It's much more likely that Olson hits .250. 

2) Yes he probably has a bit more HR upside than the 1B that were drafted after him, but they all (Rizzo, Bell, Abreu, etc.) should all have a significantly better batting average so it's really a wash. 

3) Pete Alonso is also being drafted too soon so I'm not sure I'd use him as justification for drafting Olson so early. 

4) You didn't need to draft Olson in the third round. His Consensus ADP is 65. 

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He may be the 4th best 1B option, but that means you should probably avoid the middle round 1B this year. Do no like his BA ranges. 3 Cat guy that early is only works if you are expecting him to lead the league in HRs (or come very close to it). Like Alonso.

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Based on the last 3 years, he really could hit a ton of bombs this year. 40+ is a real possibility.  It does also feel that he got a bit lucky to hit .267 last year (his BABIPs even in the minors were usually below .300, K rate went up, BB rate went down).  And then there's the fact that we only have a sss in '17, a full season of pretty crappiness in '18, and last year to base all this on.  Too many question marks for me to want to jump his ADP by 3 rounds and take him with my 3rd pick.  

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