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Matt Olson 2020 Outlook

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1 minute ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

1) It's much more likely that Olson hits .250. 

2) Yes he probably has a bit more HR upside than the 1B that were drafted after him, but they all (Rizzo, Bell, Abreu, etc.) should all have a significantly better batting average so it's really a wash. 

3) Pete Alonso is also being drafted too soon so I'm not sure I'd use him as justification for drafting Olson so early. 

4) You didn't need to draft Olson in the third round. His Consensus ADP is 65. 

 

1) back that up with something. I just linked to a deep dive into his batted ball profile that suggests otherwise. He hit .267 last year and hit .282 over the 2nd half. The underlying metrics don't look like a .250 hitter. At all. 

2) until you back up why Olson is more likely to hit .250, you still haven't made a solid point. Olson's power advantage could be significant (he had more homers than all but Bell last year despite missing a month with a notoriously power-sapping hand injury) and the batting average difference might be negligible. 

3) I didn't mention Alonso's ADP, or use him as "justification for drafting Olson." Read the thread I linked to. It says his power upside is right there with a guy like Alonso who hit 53 homers last year. 

4) Not sure what ADP data you're relying on. I rely most heavily on NFCB where his ADP is 51 in all drafts since 2/1/2020, and 49 in drafts since 3/1/2020. Either way, if I didn't take him 33 I would have just taken him at 40, and I would have taken either Baez or Bogaerts at 33 (ended up with Bogaerts at 40 anyway, so kind of a moot point). But personally I was more concerned about not having a 1B I am confident in, so I took Olson first. 

 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, 6Kill said:

Based on the last 3 years, he really could hit a ton of bombs this year. 40+ is a real possibility.  It does also feel that he got a bit lucky to hit .267 last year (his BABIPs even in the minors were usually below .300, K rate went up, BB rate went down).  And then there's the fact that we only have a sss in '17, a full season of pretty crappiness in '18, and last year to base all this on.  Too many question marks for me to want to jump his ADP by 3 rounds and take him with my 3rd pick.  

 

Again, not sure what ADP data you all are relying on. In high stakes leagues he's going late 4th/early 5th (and rising) in 12 teamers. If you want to argue it was was one, maybe 2 rounds early that's fine and I'm comfortable with the fact that it was "early" based on the opinion of the masses. But since my 5th round pick was not until 57 overall, I would very likely have missed out on him if I didn't take him at 33 or 40. I'm okay with reaching for "my guys" and there's simply not a hitter that was available in that spot that I like more.

Also we're using Fantrax where he's ranked 45th overall. 

It will certainly be fun to revisit this down the road. I don't see anyone who I could have taken that I'm really going to regret passing up. 

Edit: also read the thread I posted from Twitter that does a deep dive into his batted ball data. I think people are completely overlooking his improvements as a hitter last year. 

Edited by mjb03003
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On 2/9/2020 at 9:58 PM, Slatykamora said:

He's still pull/FB heavy lefty. The way he murders the ball is what's keeping the BABIP touching .290+ range. What would otherwise be a lot worse for other left handed hitters with his profile.

Just as easy go backwards to .240. Not because he will be hitting balls any less hard or less often. Just that if its not a HR or LD, he's probably out. Doesn't get the margin of error that other hitters get for accumulating hits. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

1) back that up with something. I just linked to a deep dive into his batted ball profile that suggests otherwise. He hit .267 last year and hit .282 over the 2nd half. The underlying metrics don't look like a .250 hitter. At all. 

2) until you back up why Olson is more likely to hit .250, you still haven't made a solid point. Olson's power advantage could be significant (he had more homers than all but Bell last year despite missing a month with a notoriously power-sapping hand injury) and the batting average difference might be negligible. 

3) I didn't mention Alonso's ADP, or use him as "justification for drafting Olson." Read the thread I linked to. It says his power upside is right there with a guy like Alonso who hit 53 homers last year. 

4) Not sure what ADP data you're relying on. I rely most heavily on NFCB where his ADP is 51 in all drafts since 2/1/2020, and 49 in drafts since 3/1/2020. Either way, if I didn't take him 33 I would have just taken him at 40, and I would have taken either Baez or Bogaerts at 33 (ended up with Bogaerts at 40 anyway, so kind of a moot point). But personally I was more concerned about not having a 1B I am confident in, so I took Olson first. 

 

2nd half BA is not large enough sample size to buck conventional wisdom about dead pull lefties(who hit a lot of FBs) with mediocre speed.

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1 minute ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Again, not sure what ADP data you all are relying on. In high stakes leagues he's going late 4th/early 5th (and rising) in 12 teamers. If you want to argue it was was one, maybe 2 rounds early that's fine and I'm comfortable with the fact that it was "early" based on the opinion of the masses. But since my 5th round pick was not until 57 overall, I would very likely have missed out on him if I didn't take him at 33 or 40. I'm okay with reaching for "my guys" and there's simply not a hitter that was available in that spot that I like more.

Also we're using Fantrax where he's ranked 45th overall. 

It will certainly be fun to revisit this down the road. I don't see anyone who I could have taken that I'm really going to regret passing up. 

Fantasypros ADP. Yes Fantrax has him 45th in ADP. NFBC has him 58th, ESPN, Yahoo, and RealTime Sports have him 69, 71, and 66 respectively for an average of 64. Bogey didn't go 34-39 but he easily could've and had you took Bogey 33, you would've been left with a much better chance of getting Olson at 40.  Not a big deal because this is a mock. But in a big money league it could cost you.

 

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4 minutes ago, 6Kill said:

Fantasypros ADP. Yes Fantrax has him 45th in ADP. NFBC has him 58th, ESPN, Yahoo, and RealTime Sports have him 69, 71, and 66 respectively for an average of 64. Bogey didn't go 34-39 but he easily could've and had you took Bogey 33, you would've been left with a much better chance of getting Olson at 40.  Not a big deal because this is a mock. But in a big money league it could cost you.

 

 

NFCB has this handy tool where you can change the date range of the ADP data. His ADP is 58 for all drafts since November 1, 2019. If you change the start date to February 1, 2020 his ADP is 51. If you change it to March 1, 2020 his ADP is 49. As I explained earlier. 

If we were drafting on a site where he was ranked in the 60s or if I was drafting with a group that I didn't think was sharp, I might have hoped to get Olson in the 5th (57 overall). But it was too big of a risk for me personally based on the fact that his ADP is rising into the 4th/5th turn in recent high stakes drafts, and the fact that he's ranked 45th overall IN THE DRAFT ROOM of the site we're using. 

If I took Olson at 40 instead of 33 are we not having this discussion? If it's really about taking him 3rd vs. 4th I think you're making too much of it. I already had a SS (Trea Turner) and Mondesi, Baez, and Bogaerts were all on the board when I picked at 33. I had a good feeling that one of them would fall to me in the 4th at 40 overall. Had i taken Bogaerts at 33 and Olson went before my pick at 40 I would have been more thrown off than if Bogaerts/Baez/Mondesi hadn't made it back to me at 40. I could have pivoted to an OF i liked (Meadows, Eloy, Blackmon) at 40 and still been happy with the build of my team. 

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41 minutes ago, 6Kill said:

Fantasypros ADP. Yes Fantrax has him 45th in ADP. NFBC has him 58th, ESPN, Yahoo, and RealTime Sports have him 69, 71, and 66 respectively for an average of 64. Bogey didn't go 34-39 but he easily could've and had you took Bogey 33, you would've been left with a much better chance of getting Olson at 40.  Not a big deal because this is a mock. But in a big money league it could cost you.

 

ESPN and Yahoo to me are way too low on him and I will likely take advantage. People are scared of the average but the guy mashes the ball when he makes contact. His power upside is also huge, he missed a month last year and still hit 36 HR. There's no reason he can't be right around Alonso in power with similar average. Olson also one of those guys who can play 162 games as he is a gold glove 1B.

1B is pretty shallow this year, Olson is definitely the top guy IMO after the top 3.

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48 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

 

2nd half BA is not large enough sample size to buck conventional wisdom about dead pull lefties(who hit a lot of FBs) with mediocre speed.

 

More from the tweet thread I linked to earlier, because the guy who did the digging deserves credit and I'm not sure people in this thread are taking the time to read the tweets:

 

 

 

 

 

2019 Expected Stats vs Actual

xBA .276 (.267)

xSLG .576 (.545)

xwOBA .386 (.368)

xwOBAcon .489 (.468)

xBarrels 15.2% (14.7%)

Like I said. Room for growth.

 
Eyes

There are no red flags in Olsen’s batted ball profile. Only green lights.

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15 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

NFCB has this handy tool where you can change the date range of the ADP data. His ADP is 58 for all drafts since November 1, 2019. If you change the start date to February 1, 2020 his ADP is 51. If you change it to March 1, 2020 his ADP is 49. As I explained earlier. 

If we were drafting on a site where he was ranked in the 60s or if I was drafting with a group that I didn't think was sharp, I might have hoped to get Olson in the 5th (57 overall). But it was too big of a risk for me personally based on the fact that his ADP is rising into the 4th/5th turn in recent high stakes drafts, and the fact that he's ranked 45th overall IN THE DRAFT ROOM of the site we're using. 

If I took Olson at 40 instead of 33 are we not having this discussion? If it's really about taking him 3rd vs. 4th I think you're making too much of it. I already had a SS (Trea Turner) and Mondesi, Baez, and Bogaerts were all on the board when I picked at 33. I had a good feeling that one of them would fall to me in the 4th at 40 overall. Had i taken Bogaerts at 33 and Olson went before my pick at 40 I would have been more thrown off than if Bogaerts/Baez/Mondesi hadn't made it back to me at 40. I could have pivoted to an OF i liked (Meadows, Eloy, Blackmon) at 40 and still been happy with the build of my team. 

Fair enough.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

1) back that up with something. I just linked to a deep dive into his batted ball profile that suggests otherwise. He hit .267 last year and hit .282 over the 2nd half. The underlying metrics don't look like a .250 hitter. At all. 

2) until you back up why Olson is more likely to hit .250, you still haven't made a solid point. Olson's power advantage could be significant (he had more homers than all but Bell last year despite missing a month with a notoriously power-sapping hand injury) and the batting average difference might be negligible. 

3) I didn't mention Alonso's ADP, or use him as "justification for drafting Olson." Read the thread I linked to. It says his power upside is right there with a guy like Alonso who hit 53 homers last year. 

4) Not sure what ADP data you're relying on. I rely most heavily on NFCB where his ADP is 51 in all drafts since 2/1/2020, and 49 in drafts since 3/1/2020. Either way, if I didn't take him 33 I would have just taken him at 40, and I would have taken either Baez or Bogaerts at 33 (ended up with Bogaerts at 40 anyway, so kind of a moot point). But personally I was more concerned about not having a 1B I am confident in, so I took Olson first. 

 

 

I'm using fantasy pros ADP which is an aggregate of all the major sites. And no need to get defensive. If you like Olson that's great, I'm just pointing out that you can probably wait on him a bit longer in your "real" drafts. 

https://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/adp/overall.php

Edited by jmcampbe11
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1 hour ago, Sidearmer said:

 

ESPN and Yahoo to me are way too low on him and I will likely take advantage. People are scared of the average but the guy mashes the ball when he makes contact. His power upside is also huge, he missed a month last year and still hit 36 HR. There's no reason he can't be right around Alonso in power with similar average. Olson also one of those guys who can play 162 games as he is a gold glove 1B.

1B is pretty shallow this year, Olson is definitely the top guy IMO after the top 3.

 

So does Miguel Sano. Are you also going to draft him in the early 4th round too? And yes, I'm being somewhat sarcastic to make my point. The more you reach for a player the less of a value they become based on their draft position. There is zero room built in for failure when you draft Matt Olson 33rd overall.  

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2 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

 

2nd half BA is not large enough sample size to buck conventional wisdom about dead pull lefties(who hit a lot of FBs) with mediocre speed.

 

This is an excellent point as well. 

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5 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

So does Miguel Sano. Are you also going to draft him in the early 4th round too? And yes, I'm being somewhat sarcastic to make my point. The more you reach for a player the less of a value they become based on their draft position. There is zero room built in for failure when you draft Matt Olson 33rd overall.  

 

Completely different scenario, makes no sense to compare to Sano. The better comparison is Pete Alonso, who is going ahead of him. Both are average risks with monster power.

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2 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

1) back that up with something. I just linked to a deep dive into his batted ball profile that suggests otherwise. He hit .267 last year and hit .282 over the 2nd half. The underlying metrics don't look like a .250 hitter. At all. So you're putting all your stock on the fact that he hit .282 for 1/2 a season and ignoring the fact that he's a career .254 hitter? Because the odds certainly seem to favor me being more right then you. And in leagues where batting average counts the odds of him significantly outproducing (which is what he would have to do based on where you drafted him) players like Rizzo, Bell, and Abreu are not very good. 

2) until you back up why Olson is more likely to hit .250, you still haven't made a solid point. Olson's power advantage could be significant (he had more homers than all but Bell last year despite missing a month with a notoriously power-sapping hand injury) and the batting average difference might be negligible. Matt Olson's career batting average is .254...so there's that. 

3) I didn't mention Alonso's ADP, or use him as "justification for drafting Olson." Read the thread I linked to. It says his power upside is right there with a guy like Alonso who hit 53 homers last year. And I agreed with you and specifically said that Alonso was being overdrafted, because you drafted Olson near where he's typically going. 

4) Not sure what ADP data you're relying on. I rely most heavily on NFCB where his ADP is 51 in all drafts since 2/1/2020, and 49 in drafts since 3/1/2020. Either way, if I didn't take him 33 I would have just taken him at 40, and I would have taken either Baez or Bogaerts at 33 (ended up with Bogaerts at 40 anyway, so kind of a moot point). But personally I was more concerned about not having a 1B I am confident in, so I took Olson first. Fantasypros Consensus ADP which is an aggregate of all the major sites. You might not "like" ESPN and Yahoo, but where people are drafting players on these sites still matters and can't be discounted because it doesn't fit your narrative. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Completely different scenario, makes no sense to compare to Sano. The better comparison is Pete Alonso, who is going ahead of him. Both are average risks with monster power.

 

It's really not. Sano strikes out a bit more, but the profile as very similar hitters. And both have the potential to hit 50+ HRs. You'd be better off drafting Sano 50 picks later then wasting an early 4th round pick on Olson. You'd be getting a player with the same power potential who will have 1B eligibility a few weeks into the season. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

 

It's like you're not able to read my posts, or all of the tweets I have referenced that analyzed his batted ball data and showed major progression/improvement as a hitter and showed his .267 average in 2019 was not fluky. 

It's like you don't recognize that 25 (soon to be 26) year old players make improvements. 

It's like you don't recognize that Olson hit .229 in May when he first came back from a broken hamate and then hit .276 the rest of the season (and .262 or better every month the rest of the way). 

It's like you can't understand why stale ADP data aggregated from every major site is not a good indication of where players will go in any given draft room. 

 

I understand you think the pick was a reach. But clinging to career BA (which consists of about 2.5 seasons, and ages 23-25) and ignoring all of the other very relevant points that are being made here is not really advancing the conversation. 

Edited by mjb03003
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Fwiw that Matt Williams guy has been doing amazing deep dives on players all off-season. Great work and I highly recommend you read his work. If you don't want to that's fine. It's also fine if you have reasons to disagree with the data, as nobody is going to be right all the time. But it's hard to take opinions seriously if they clearly haven't read the pro arguments and are arguing from what seems to be nothing more than a gut hot take.

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3 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Olson's power advantage could be significant (he had more homers than all but Bell last year despite missing a month with a notoriously power-sapping hand injury) 

 

This appears to be more a myth than actually backed up by data, fwiw. There was a lot of debate about it last year, and several players both in the majors and minors have come back and shown no limitations in their power outburst. 

 

It's never *good* to see a hitter break a bone in their hand, but a broken hamate doesn't appear to offer any more power sapping risk than any other broken bone. Which is to say little to none.

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6 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Completely different scenario, makes no sense to compare to Sano. The better comparison is Pete Alonso, who is going ahead of him. Both are average risks with monster power.

Olson, Sano, Alonso are all in that same bucket. Olson's power is more dependent upon pull then Alonso. His raw power is not as great as Alonso or Sano, but Olson's more refined approach closes the raw power gap between the 3.

Really doesn't appear like Olson did anything different in 2018 to 2019 besides getting the benfit of the happy fun time ball and laying down bunts. While we don't have MLB data on Alonso pre-juiced ball. I trust his power to play more. The correct call is probably waiting on 1B once Bellinger/Freeman are gone.

 

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26 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

It's really not. Sano strikes out a bit more, but the profile as very similar hitters. And both have the potential to hit 50+ HRs. You'd be better off drafting Sano 50 picks later then wasting an early 4th round pick on Olson. You'd be getting a player with the same power potential who will have 1B eligibility a few weeks into the season. 

 

Sano has major health concerns, and will be starting at the bottom of his lineup. Olson is slated to play a full season and with his elite defense has a chance for 162. You can't look at just strikeouts for average. Olson murders the ball. As @mjb03003 has demonstrated when you look at the underlying numbers his average has plenty of room for improvement. The profile is similar but that's it. Olson will likely have a 30 point average advantage (at least), and play many more games and get more at bats in a premium lineup spot.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

More from the tweet thread I linked to earlier, because the guy who did the digging deserves credit and I'm not sure people in this thread are taking the time to read the tweets:

 

 

 

 

 

2019 Expected Stats vs Actual

xBA .276 (.267)

xSLG .576 (.545)

xwOBA .386 (.368)

xwOBAcon .489 (.468)

xBarrels 15.2% (14.7%)

Like I said. Room for growth.

 
Eyes

There are no red flags in Olsen’s batted ball profile. Only green lights.

Yes. He hits the ball very hard and very often. Like I acknowledged. Non of those stats refute my claim about low BABIP ranges for Fly-balls and pulled GBs for lefties. The way he murders the baseball allows those BABIP ranges to be closer to 290+ and not 250-260. 

Edited by Slatykamora

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11 minutes ago, Sidearmer said:

30 point average advantage (at least)

what???? FG projects Sano to be in the low to mid .240s and Olson to be in the low .250s

 

Why in the world would you project over a 30 point average advantage?

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Posted (edited)

Matt Olson 2018? 93.1 Exit Velo, 97.4 LD/HR Exit velo. 52% Hard hit rate(statcast), 12.2% Barrel. He improved the Barrel by 2%in 2019. So they gave a higher xBA. Which makes sense because the BA went up 20 points last year.

He's been the same player for 2 years now. He got some xSLUG and xBA bumps that had more to do with the environment then anything he did differently. I'm worried about where he goes if the ball is de-juiced(and there is hints that is going to be the case). His power is more dependent upon pull then Alonso. 

I'm personally not throwing my early picks on guys without a better track record of BA or SB with the yo-yoing ball changes. Wait later for a Sano feels better. To each their own though.

Edited by Slatykamora

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1 minute ago, 6Kill said:

what???? FG projects Sano to be in the low to mid .240s and Olson to be in the low .250s

 

Why in the world would you project over a 30 point average advantage?

 

Those projections seem high on Sano and low on Olson to me. Sano's average floor is also much lower than Olson's, he's a year removed from hitting under .200.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Sidearmer said:

 

Those projections seem high on Sano and low on Olson to me. Sano's average floor is also much lower than Olson's, he's a year removed from hitting under .200.

 

...in only 266 ABs. That's way too small of a sample size to think his batting average floor is that low. Sano's batting average profiles is almost exactly the same as Olson's. You're much more likely to win your league drafting Sano 125th overall (his consensus ADP) versus Olson 33rd overall. No savvy fantasy owner would ever draft him that early, even if you think he's worth the pick. The whole idea is to draft players later who you think will produce the same value as players who are drafted earlier. That allows you to stockpile talent at other positions. Overreaching for those players (like Olson) defeats the whole point of trying to get that type of advantage. 

Also, to the guy who drafted him, please stop quoting Matt Williams to me. This is argument isn't about Olson's floor or ceiling it's about you completely over reaching for him, which wouldn't be a big deal (in a mock) if you didn't keep trying (and failing) to defend the pick. What the majority of us are trying to tell you is that you can at least wait another round or two before you have to take him. That will only make your team better. [...]

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed ad hominem comment.
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16 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

...in only 266 ABs. That's way too small of a sample size to think his batting average floor is that low. Sano's batting average profiles is almost exactly the same as Olson's. You're much more likely to win your league drafting Sano 125th overall (his consensus ADP) versus Olson 33rd overall. No savvy fantasy owner would ever draft him that early, even if you think he's worth the pick. The whole idea is to draft players later who you think will produce the same value as players who are drafted earlier. That allows you to stockpile talent at other positions. Overreaching for those players (like Olson) defeats the whole point of trying to get that type of advantage.

 

Their profiles are not nearly the same. Sano's career strikeout rate is 36.3%, while Olson's is 25.2. That is a huge difference. Olson with a better lineup spot will get more runs and RBI as well. Also consider the big injury risk with Sano. He hasn't had a full MLB season in his career. All of this is why Sano is going much later than Olson. You can say they have similar profiles which is true, but Olson is slightly better in a better situation and better health.

As for the ADP, you do realize Olson is rated 45 on Fantrax, if he wanted to get him, it makes sense getting him around 33. If you are high on a guy, go get him. Consensus ADP can be overused at times, as its purely driven by the rankings on each site. Who are we to say Yahoo's ranking is better than Fantrax? If Olson realizes his potential he will pay that price anyway. If you love him you don't risk losing out just to save 1 round of players. ADP is important to consider but its not the end all be all.

Just for reference, as NFBC has the high and low pick on every player, the high on Olson is 31, so there are other players picking Olson that early. He also seems to be a "helium" guy as his ADP in recent weeks is much higher than his overall ADP (meaning the sites had him ranked low and players are correcting this). If you just look at straight ADP including November and make conclusions its not very effective.

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