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Matt Olson 2020 Outlook

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34 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Also, to the guy who drafted him, please stop quoting Matt Williams to me. This is argument isn't about Olson's floor or ceiling it's about you completely over reaching for him, which wouldn't be a big deal (in a mock) if you didn't keep trying (and failing) to defend the pick. What the majority of us are trying to tell you is that you can at least wait another round or two before you have to take him. That will only make your team better. If you don't want to listen to us or can't handle criticism then perhaps you shouldn't participate in a public mock draft. 

 

Apparently you're still struggling with reading comprehension, as Williams' tweets are not simply making an argument of Olson's floor or ceiling, nor have I been posting to that effect. If you want to just admit you're not paying attention to what is being shown in the data, that would helpful, so I could stop wasting my time. I'm not trying to change your mind, I'm just trying to show some of the thought process behind my pick and shine a brighter light on Olson for those who may still be sleeping on him. 

 

I am really blown away by the criticism of draft picks in a mock draft that are maybe 15-20 picks ahead of recent high stakes ADP. If the picks were all more or less in line with aggregate ADP from November - today what would we possibly learn from that mock? Why wouldn't we just read that stale, noisy ADP data and call it a day? Why do I even have to "defend the pick" in a throwaway mock draft that is designed to generate discussion and conversation and help people recognize trends for their own drafts? Don't you think there's value in people realizing that there are some people out there (such as myself) who are higher on Olson and willing to reach a round or two early? 


I have zero problem with criticism. I enjoy a good debate about the merits of different players, whether a player should be avoided completely, worth reaching for, or whether there's a comparable player available many rounds later. That sort of discussion helps me hone in on players I plan to target or avoid because frankly I don't have time to do deep dives on every player in the league. What I have a problem with is this herd mentality that there is some great wisdom in stale, watered down, aggregated ADP data. I also have a problem with people apparently choosing to ignore the pro arguments for a player, as @AnonymousRob said a few posts up. I thought higher of the people involved in this mock and on these boards, which is why I thought it would be worth planting my flag and stating my case for why I made the pick. You're free to feel it was a bad pick, and we can just leave it at that.  

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

Apparently you're still struggling with reading comprehension, as Williams' tweets are not simply making an argument of Olson's floor or ceiling, nor have I been posting to that effect. If you want to just admit you're not paying attention to what is being shown in the data, that would helpful, so I could stop wasting my time. I'm not trying to change your mind, I'm just trying to show some of the thought process behind my pick and shine a brighter light on Olson for those who may still be sleeping on him. 

 

I am really blown away by the criticism of draft picks in a mock draft that are maybe 15-20 picks ahead of recent high stakes ADP. If the picks were all more or less in line with aggregate ADP from November - today what would we possibly learn from that mock? Why wouldn't we just read that stale, noisy ADP data and call it a day? Why do I even have to "defend the pick" in a throwaway mock draft that is designed to generate discussion and conversation and help people recognize trends for their own drafts? Don't you think there's value in people realizing that there are some people out there (such as myself) who are higher on Olson and willing to reach a round or two early? 


I have zero problem with criticism. I enjoy a good debate about the merits of different players, whether a player should be avoided completely, worth reaching for, or whether there's a comparable player available many rounds later. That sort of discussion helps me hone in on players I plan to target or avoid because frankly I don't have time to do deep dives on every player in the league. What I have a problem with is this herd mentality that there is some great wisdom in stale, watered down, aggregated ADP data. I also have a problem with people apparently choosing to ignore the pro arguments for a player, as @AnonymousRob said a few posts up. I thought higher of the people involved in this mock and on these boards, which is why I thought it would be worth planting my flag and stating my case for why I made the pick. You're free to feel it was a bad pick, and we can just leave it at that.  

 

Nobody would have blinked if you switched Bogaerts and Olson at 31 & 40.   If you lost Olson to somebody else,  you would have been miffed.

If you love somebody,  grab 'em.  

 

 

EDIT:  it's actually 33 & 40.

Edited by Brooklyn Dude
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1 minute ago, Brooklyn Dude said:

 

Nobody would have blinked if you switched Bogaerts and Olson at 31 & 40.   If you lost Olson to somebody else,  you would have been miffed.

If you love somebody,  grab 'em.  

 

That's the second day in a row I've heard the word miffed. Prior to yesterday I've never heard the word in my life lol

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1 minute ago, 6Kill said:

That's the second day in a row I've heard the word miffed. Prior to yesterday I've never heard the word in my life lol

 

I wanted to say pissed but this is a family site.

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I checked the TGFBI site to see what Olson’s ADP was. TGFBI has 26 Fantasy writers/experts/high stakes players leagues and in 22 of those leagues, Olson was drafted at the end of the 4th or beginning of the 5th round. In the other 4 he was a 3rd round pick. TGFBI are 15-team leagues. So in those 22 leagues his ADP was around 60. I have no issues drafting him at that ADP. 

Also, in their leagues the run on 1B really started around the 5th and 6th round. Olson, Rizzo, Goldy, Abreu, Bell, Muncy, LeMahieu (he’s 1B eligible) all went quickly. Then it took several rounds before guys like Mancini, Hoskins and C.Santana went off the board. 
 

 

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16 hours ago, 6Kill said:

Based on the last 3 years, he really could hit a ton of bombs this year. 40+ is a real possibility.  It does also feel that he got a bit lucky to hit .267 last year (his BABIPs even in the minors were usually below .300, K rate went up, BB rate went down).  And then there's the fact that we only have a sss in '17, a full season of pretty crappiness in '18, and last year to base all this on.  Too many question marks for me to want to jump his ADP by 3 rounds and take him with my 3rd pick.  


It also depends on your league settings. You described his 2018 season as “a full season of pretty crappiness” yet in one of my leagues (14-team league) he was still the #55 ranked hitter, #92 player overall and the #8 1B that year. Rhys Hoskins was the #33 ranked hitter/#45 ranked overall/#4 ranked 1B in that specific league and he hit .246, 34 HR, 96 RBI and 89 R. All projections have Olson putting up better numbers than Hoskins in 2018 so taking Olson in the 3rd round this year wouldn’t necessarily be reaching. I’m not going to take him in the 3rd but based on projections, I wouldn’t fault another player for taking him in the 3rd in that league. 

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Olson feels like a guy someone in your draft will reach for and I think this thread demonstrates that.  No offense intended to @mjb03003.  I'm a believer in reaching a round it two for the guys you want.  I know there's, at least 1 guy in my league that will do the same.  If so, I've no issue waiting for a guy Hoskins, or even Voit.  If not, then I'm all over Olson around pick 55-60.

 

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I find it funny how much backlash this guy has gotten for taking him at 33 when guys like Starling Marte and Blackmon are going around the same time.  Power to anyone who’s smart enough to get on Olsons upside then take a proven veteran on the decline, it’s how you win leagues.

 

And FWIW I’m very pro-Olson and see him being the #3 1B in avg. leagues behind Bellinger and Freeman and #2 in Obp leagues behind only Bellinger.

 

Is it that crazy to think he’s gonna put up the following?  I mean this is pretty much exactly what he did last year if you stretch his season to ~160 games

 

.265 avg

.360 Obp

100 r

 45hr

120 rbi

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I find it funny how much backlash this guy has gotten for taking him at 33 when guys like Starling Marte and Blackmon are going around the same time.  Power to anyone who’s smart enough to get on Olsons upside then take a proven veteran on the decline, it’s how you win leagues.

 

And FWIW I’m very pro-Olson and see him being the #3 1B in avg. leagues behind Bellinger and Freeman and #2 in Obp leagues behind only Bellinger.

 

Is it that crazy to think he’s gonna put up the following?  I mean this is pretty much exactly what he did last year if you stretch his season to ~160 games

 

.265 avg

.360 Obp

100 r

 45hr

120 rbi

 

 

 

 

 

I questioned the pick because none of the other players you mentioned will hurt you in any of the offensive categories. And I'm not counting SBs since that's really an outlier and not tied to the other offensive categories. Even in the rosiest scenario, Olson is going to hurt you in batting average. We also live in a time where everyone hits HRs. It's arguably the most prevalent and available offensive category. Guys like Sano, Reyes, and even Renfroe are available very late and have the potential to hit 40+ HRs. Do they have the same upside as Olson? No, but I'd much rather have a combo of something like Marte/Sano than Olson/Mercado or Blackmon/Voit as opposed to Olson/Eaton. And if you play in a OBP league there's absolutely no justification for drafting Olson over Rizzo. I really think that if you're going to reach this year it should be for starting pitching or stolen bases, not home runs. 

Also, I've noticed that many of you have said something to the equivalent of "I wouldn't fault someone for drafting him that high, but I wouldn't do it myself," which is pretty much on the same page as what I'm saying. In general, I don't believe it's a smart strategy to reach for Olson and in general HRs that early, but at the end of the day it's your team and you can draft whoever the heck you want. Expert analysis and industry cheat sheets are great, but no one can predict the future so ultimately you should just go with your gut. We won't know who's right or wrong until October. 

Edited by jmcampbe11

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1 minute ago, hangin n wangin said:

I want. I will have. He gon' bash. I may reach.

Please don't teach.

 

 

it's your team dude. do what you want. #hanginwangin&bangin

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1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

Even in the rosiest scenario, Olson is going to hurt you in batting average.

 

*completely done with the ADP conversation/debate, strictly talking about Matt Olson 2020 season outlook at this point*

I'm just kinda scratching my head on this quoted bit. Repeating it over and over doesn't make it true. You *believe* he will hurt you in batting average... he didn't really hurt anyone in batting average last year and there are signs that he has room for growth (including in the AVG department). Doesn't mean it WILL happen but it's certainly within the range of outcomes.  

Last season, of the 27 other hitters with 35 or more HR (and remember Olson hit 36 in just 127 games...), 11 had worse batting averages than Olson's .267 and two of them were within .004 (negligible difference). There's only a dozen or so power hitters who I would confidently project for similar or better HR and better AVG than Matt Olson. 

 

They are:

Trout

Bellinger (although even he is a career .278 hitter who hit .267 in 2017 and .260 in 2018)

Arenado

JD Martinez

Acuna 

Story

Yelich

Soto

Bregman

Lindor (although I think 38 in 2018 could be his career high, and he may be a 30-33 HR guy most years)

Freeman (although career high before last year was 34 HR, and he had just 23 in 162 games in 2018...)

 

Of course there are a dozen or so other names I could make the case might have similar HR total and similar or better batting average than Olson, but other than the guys I listed about I think it's easy to cast doubt or poke holes in the resume of just about any player. 

 

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7 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

*completely done with the ADP conversation/debate, strictly talking about Matt Olson 2020 season outlook at this point*

I'm just kinda scratching my head on this quoted bit. Repeating it over and over doesn't make it true. You *believe* he will hurt you in batting average... he didn't really hurt anyone in batting average last year and there are signs that he has room for growth (including in the AVG department). Doesn't mean it WILL happen but it's certainly within the range of outcomes.  

Last season, of the 27 other hitters with 35 or more HR (and remember Olson hit 36 in just 127 games...), 11 had worse batting averages than Olson's .267 and two of them were within .004 (negligible difference). There's only a dozen or so power hitters who I would confidently project for similar or better HR and better AVG than Matt Olson. 

 

They are:

Trout

Bellinger (although even he is a career .278 hitter who hit .267 in 2017 and .260 in 2018)

Arenado

JD Martinez

Acuna 

Story

Yelich

Soto

Bregman

Lindor (although I think 38 in 2018 could be his career high, and he may be a 30-33 HR guy most years)

Freeman (although career high before last year was 34 HR, and he had just 23 in 162 games in 2018...)

 

Of course there are a dozen or so other names I could make the case might have similar HR total and similar or better batting average than Olson, but other than the guys I listed about I think it's easy to cast doubt or poke holes in the resume of just about any player. 

 

 

Matt Olson's career batting average is. .254. There is no stat or advanced metric that you can give me that trumps that stat until he actually does what you're saying he might do.And if your team batting average is .254 you're going to finish close to the bottom in a roto league. This article does an excellent job outlining the baselines you should be targeting for each of the offensive categories and a .254 batting average is at the very bottom. 

I also think you're list of similar players is VERY shallow. Everyone on that list has a shot to hit over .300 except Bellinger and Story. So you're basically saying that you project Olson to be a .300 batting average. So he's going to go from a career .254 hitter to a .300 hitter? 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2020-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-hitting-category-targets-to-win-your-rotisserie-league/

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30 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

*completely done with the ADP conversation/debate, strictly talking about Matt Olson 2020 season outlook at this point*

I'm just kinda scratching my head on this quoted bit. Repeating it over and over doesn't make it true. You *believe* he will hurt you in batting average... he didn't really hurt anyone in batting average last year and there are signs that he has room for growth (including in the AVG department). Doesn't mean it WILL happen but it's certainly within the range of outcomes.  

Last season, of the 27 other hitters with 35 or more HR (and remember Olson hit 36 in just 127 games...), 11 had worse batting averages than Olson's .267 and two of them were within .004 (negligible difference). There's only a dozen or so power hitters who I would confidently project for similar or better HR and better AVG than Matt Olson. 

 

They are:

Trout

Bellinger (although even he is a career .278 hitter who hit .267 in 2017 and .260 in 2018)

Arenado

JD Martinez

Acuna 

Story

Yelich

Soto

Bregman

Lindor (although I think 38 in 2018 could be his career high, and he may be a 30-33 HR guy most years)

Freeman (although career high before last year was 34 HR, and he had just 23 in 162 games in 2018...)

 

Of course there are a dozen or so other names I could make the case might have similar HR total and similar or better batting average than Olson, but other than the guys I listed about I think it's easy to cast doubt or poke holes in the resume of just about any player. 

 

 

Also, here's the actual list of players projected to have a similar batting average and homerun totals. It's more than twice as deep as your list of 11. 

 

     
Mike Trout 44 0.306
Pete Alonso 43 0.258
Cody Bellinger 41 0.294
Nolan Arenado 39 0.303
Giancarlo Stanton 39 0.268
Nelson Cruz 38 0.277
Yordan Alvarez 37 0.287
Bryce Harper 37 0.267
Matt Olson 37 0.26
Jorge Soler 37 0.26
Christian Yelich 36 0.313
J.D. Martinez 36 0.302
Ronald Acuna Jr. 36 0.285
Eugenio Suarez 36 0.266
Trevor Story 35 0.283
Aaron Judge 35 0.269
Khris Davis 35 0.239
Juan Soto 34 0.294
Alex Bregman 34 0.294
George Springer 34 0.28
Gleyber Torres 34 0.279
Mike Moustakas 34 0.261
Franmil Reyes 34 0.26

 

 

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Those rankings places must not include CBS. They have him as the 19th best 1B (~160 overall).

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38 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Matt Olson's career batting average is. .254. There is no stat or advanced metric that you can give me that trumps that stat until he actually does what you're saying he might do.And if your team batting average is .254 you're going to finish close to the bottom in a roto league. This article does an excellent job outlining the baselines you should be targeting for each of the offensive categories and a .254 batting average is at the very bottom. 

I also think you're list of similar players is VERY shallow. Everyone on that list has a shot to hit over .300 except Bellinger and Story. So you're basically saying that you project Olson to be a .300 batting average. So he's going to go from a career .254 hitter to a .300 hitter? 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2020-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-hitting-category-targets-to-win-your-rotisserie-league/

 

If you continue to draft with ADP as your sole compass, you are going to end up in the middle of the pack with everybody else.

Trying to find players that will outperform their ADP and getting them as late as possible is a good route to go for most.  But reaching for a player you think will outperform his ADP a bit early will not hurt as much as you think and might even win you a championship if you are correct. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Matt Olson's career batting average is. .254. There is no stat or advanced metric that you can give me that trumps that stat until he actually does what you're saying he might do.And if your team batting average is .254 you're going to finish close to the bottom in a roto league. This article does an excellent job outlining the baselines you should be targeting for each of the offensive categories and a .254 batting average is at the very bottom. 

I also think you're list of similar players is VERY shallow. Everyone on that list has a shot to hit over .300 except Bellinger and Story. So you're basically saying that you project Olson to be a .300 batting average. So he's going to go from a career .254 hitter to a .300 hitter? 

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/2020-fantasy-baseball-draft-prep-hitting-category-targets-to-win-your-rotisserie-league/

 

Olson hit .267 last year. Full stop. He also hit .276 from June on (after missing all of April with a broken hand). Using .254 as the definitive projection for his average is suspect. He could hit .240. He could hit .280. Chances are he will hit somewhere in between. But please at least acknowledge that he's fully capable of batting well over .254, because he already has and it was a 483 AB sample size and the underlying metrics do not scream fluke. 

 

How valuable is career batting average for a 25/26 year old player who has played a total of ~2.5 seasons in the league? The book is not written on Olson yet. This is why people with more time on their hands than me do deep dives into advanced metrics to try to predict whether a player will revert back to previous levels, repeat their performance from the previous year, or continue to improve into an even better hitter. And this is why I shared that information in his player thread. So people could see perspectives beyond some generic computer projection from CBS. 

 

I did not make a list of similar players. I made a list of players I would *confidently* project for roughly the same or more HR and better AVG. Batting average is notoriously volatile year to year. The difference between hitting .267 and .277 over 483 ABs is exactly 5 hits. Established hitters have down years in terms of BA. Lesser hitters have surprisingly good years in terms of BA. I'm really only confident projecting batting average within a  + or - 20 points range.  Bellinger hit .305 last year and was hitting .330 in August. You're saying he's a guy with no shot to hit over .300. I wouldn't PROJECT him to hit .300 or better, but he clearly CAN hit .300 or better. There's a difference. 

 

On that note, what gives you the impression I'm projecting Olson to hit .300? What makes you think I am building a roster around a target of a .254 batting average, thinking that will win me the category? Seriously, I have no idea where this stuff is coming from. It's truly baffling some of the conclusions you are taking away from my posts. Before you respond please try to carefully read the words I'm typing and don't twist them around or create a strawman argument. 

Edited by mjb03003

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15 hours ago, Sine_cera said:


It also depends on your league settings. You described his 2018 season as “a full season of pretty crappiness” yet in one of my leagues (14-team league) he was still the #55 ranked hitter, #92 player overall and the #8 1B that year. Rhys Hoskins was the #33 ranked hitter/#45 ranked overall/#4 ranked 1B in that specific league and he hit .246, 34 HR, 96 RBI and 89 R. All projections have Olson putting up better numbers than Hoskins in 2018 so taking Olson in the 3rd round this year wouldn’t necessarily be reaching. I’m not going to take him in the 3rd but based on projections, I wouldn’t fault another player for taking him in the 3rd in that league. 

Of course. BA/SB is the only stats he does not have a healthy proficiency in. So any sort of OBP/OPS 5x5 or 6x6. Or Points, etc. He should get a bump.

I thought Hoskins was way over-drafted last year. 5X5 ESPN had him ranked in the 90's for 2018.  As those types of hitters, their BA is more dependent upon HR rate then other players. He's fine in the 60's ADP with the HR/RBI/R Upside.

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4 hours ago, BackyardBaseball said:

I find it funny how much backlash this guy has gotten for taking him at 33 when guys like Starling Marte and Blackmon are going around the same time.  Power to anyone who’s smart enough to get on Olsons upside then take a proven veteran on the decline, it’s how you win leagues.

 

And FWIW I’m very pro-Olson and see him being the #3 1B in avg. leagues behind Bellinger and Freeman and #2 in Obp leagues behind only Bellinger.

 

Is it that crazy to think he’s gonna put up the following?  I mean this is pretty much exactly what he did last year if you stretch his season to ~160 games

 

.265 avg

.360 Obp

100 r

 45hr

120 rbi

 

 

 

 

Juiced ball continuation? I can see it. Not sure why you have that ranked over Alonso in 5X5 BA, and Freeman OBP though.

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11 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

Also, here's the actual list of players projected to have a similar batting average and homerun totals. It's more than twice as deep as your list of 11. 

 

     
Mike Trout 44 0.306
Pete Alonso 43 0.258
Cody Bellinger 41 0.294
Nolan Arenado 39 0.303
Giancarlo Stanton 39 0.268
Nelson Cruz 38 0.277
Yordan Alvarez 37 0.287
Bryce Harper 37 0.267
Matt Olson 37 0.26
Jorge Soler 37 0.26
Christian Yelich 36 0.313
J.D. Martinez 36 0.302
Ronald Acuna Jr. 36 0.285
Eugenio Suarez 36 0.266
Trevor Story 35 0.283
Aaron Judge 35 0.269
Khris Davis 35 0.239
Juan Soto 34 0.294
Alex Bregman 34 0.294
George Springer 34 0.28
Gleyber Torres 34 0.279
Mike Moustakas 34 0.261
Franmil Reyes 34 0.26

 

 

 

I see only 5, maybe 6, players who will go after Olson in a draft. So even though there are more players projected to hit 34+ HR, most of them are going early. It's harder to find them after Round 5. And some of those late guys are guys most people will be targeting (Reyes, Moose). Also, the Judge and `Stanton injuries will impact the drafting of certain power hitters.

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@mjb03003what are the chances your boy leads the MLB in HR's, I've yet to truly dig into him and I've never bet on baseball player props/futures but I did today when digging into Jose Abreu then seeing he is 51-1 to lead the MLB in RBI's. Your boy Olson is 34-1 to lead MLB in HR's

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2 hours ago, turner46 said:

@mjb03003what are the chances your boy leads the MLB in HR's, I've yet to truly dig into him and I've never bet on baseball player props/futures but I did today when digging into Jose Abreu then seeing he is 51-1 to lead the MLB in RBI's. Your boy Olson is 34-1 to lead MLB in HR's


I like those odds for sure. Olson absolutely smokes the ball. If he didn’t miss a month with a broken hand last year he probably hits 40+. If he gets a few more balls in the air he could make a run at 50 HR. This is assuming he carries over some of the gains/improvements he showed last year of course, but the sky is the limit in terms of his power potential. 

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Posted (edited)

I don’t see much difference between him and Alonso
 

.

Edited by kidtwentytwo

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On 3/6/2020 at 12:43 PM, BackyardBaseball said:

I find it funny how much backlash this guy has gotten for taking him at 33 when guys like Starling Marte and Blackmon are going around the same time.  Power to anyone who’s smart enough to get on Olsons upside then take a proven veteran on the decline, it’s how you win leagues.

 

And FWIW I’m very pro-Olson and see him being the #3 1B in avg. leagues behind Bellinger and Freeman and #2 in Obp leagues behind only Bellinger.

 

Is it that crazy to think he’s gonna put up the following?  I mean this is pretty much exactly what he did last year if you stretch his season to ~160 games

 

.265 avg

.360 Obp

100 r

 45hr

120 rbi

 

 

 

 

If you think that Olson is better than Marte then I have a hand sanitizer to sell you at a bargain price of $100.

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