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Matt Olson 2020 Outlook

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4 hours ago, mjb03003 said:


I like those odds for sure. Olson absolutely smokes the ball. If he didn’t miss a month with a broken hand last year he probably hits 40+. If he gets a few more balls in the air he could make a run at 50 HR. This is assuming he carries over some of the gains/improvements he showed last year of course, but the sky is the limit in terms of his power potential. 

I‘d take Abreu, Rizzo, Goldy and Hoskins over Olson. When Olson’s final season BA is .284 or .275 then we can talk about him being a top 1B. A career .254 hitter projected to hit .256 by ATC and .255 from Steamer who doesn’t steal has minimal real fantasy value. Pretty amateurish to reach for a guy because you expect him to play like he never had before, because some of his advanced metrics say that he should’ve been better. 
 

Hoskins and Sano could easily be just as good if not better and are drafted well below him. It’s silly to ignore that. 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Thenewwildone8 said:

I‘d take Abreu, Rizzo, Goldy and Hoskins over Olson. When Olson’s final season BA is .284 or .275 then we can talk about him being a top 1B. A career .254 hitter projected to hit .256 by ATC and .255 from Steamer who doesn’t steal has minimal real fantasy value. Pretty amateurish to reach for a guy because you expect him to play like he never had before, because some of his advanced metrics say that he should’ve been better. 
 

Hoskins and Sano could easily be just as good if not better and are drafted well below him. It’s silly to ignore that. 



you realize Hoskins hit .226 last year and Miguel sano has never played more than 116 games and hit over 30 homers once right?  You’re getting what you pay for there.  ...and I don’t dislike either of Hoskins or Sano. 

If you don’t want Olson where he’s going that’s fine, but reaching on guys because you think they’ll do better is often times how you win leagues and not finish in the middle of the pack by drafting a “safe” roster.

Edited by kidtwentytwo
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And I guess it depends on reach?

Would I take him in the 2nd or 3rd round?  No.  Probably not.

pick 37 or 45 onward?  Sure 

 

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1 minute ago, GrapeJuice said:

 

Weird. I pulled my numbers from my active draft room, which is constantly in flux (Chris Sale is dropping by the hour).


i trust cbs’s adp as much as I trust my dog to guard my dinner while I run to the bathroom 

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Just now, kidtwentytwo said:


i trust cbs’s adp as much as I trust my dog to guard my dinner while I run to the bathroom 

 

I'm not going by ADP, I'm going by their rankings.

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On 3/8/2020 at 6:49 AM, kidtwentytwo said:



you realize Hoskins hit .226 last year and Miguel sano has never played more than 116 games and hit over 30 homers once right?  You’re getting what you pay for there.  ...and I don’t dislike either of Hoskins or Sano. 

If you don’t want Olson where he’s going that’s fine, but reaching on guys because you think they’ll do better is often times how you win leagues and not finish in the middle of the pack by drafting a “safe” roster.

See, to me. Olson is the "safe" pick. Not the bold one. De-jucied he will still get 30 HRs and that HR value will increase relative to his peers, but his BA is more HR dependent. So he will lose BA value relative to his peers on the other side.

BA being HR dependent due to the high LA and FB rate(on top GB shifts). 196 BA in 2018 minus HRs, .192 BA in 2019 minus HRs. Not a ton of fluctuation.

As for his "growth": He missed April last year. The least friendly month for hitting. A .282 2nd half BA that had a lot to do with hitting more singles thanks to IF hits in august.

Nothing has change about the dude besides the HR/FB rate and Barrel rate. Both metrics went up across the MLB last year.  He's pretty much a finished product. His approach gets the best out of his skill set. 

People see shiny stat cast numbers and just go nuts and assume everyone at X-age has growth left no matter where they actually are.  I'll be happy to eat my crow if i'm wrong here.

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On 3/8/2020 at 7:11 AM, Thenewwildone8 said:

I‘d take Abreu, Rizzo, Goldy and Hoskins over Olson. When Olson’s final season BA is .284 or .275 then we can talk about him being a top 1B. A career .254 hitter projected to hit .256 by ATC and .255 from Steamer who doesn’t steal has minimal real fantasy value. Pretty amateurish to reach for a guy because you expect him to play like he never had before, because some of his advanced metrics say that he should’ve been better. 
 

Hoskins and Sano could easily be just as good if not better and are drafted well below him. It’s silly to ignore that. 


Wrong. That honestly depends on league settings. Hoskins was the #42 overall player in one of my leagues two seasons ago and he had a .246 AVG. E5 was the #78 overall player that year and he also batted .246. Even Gallo was a Top 100 player that year and he batted .206 and so was Olson and his .247 AVG. You can have plenty of Fantasy value despite a low average as long as your other counting stats are there (HR, RBI, R).  

 

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He went for $27 in our home league auction.  I was shocked. Was thinking $17-$20. 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Chadgo1 said:

He went for $27 in our home league auction.  I was shocked. Was thinking $17-$20. 

 

He's only 25 yrs old so I think its normal to see a larger delta in value with a guy like this. I don't think its fair to say we all know what he is at this point so I can see some people paying more expecting a 4th year breakout for a player with his skills, or the other side who think they know what we have here.

I'm of the camp that we haven't seen the best of him yet and I am expecting bigger things to come.

The kid is only entering his 4th year and despite missing 30+ games last year, he mashed 36 HR's, while back in his rookie at age 22 year he hit 24 HRs in only 59 games. He is only now entering his prime years at age 26. He could mash 45 HR's and slug 600 and it wouldn't surprise me at all. His batted ball profile looks tasty, and absolutely he kills the ball.

I see this a lot where people in general don't give enough time to fully evaluate a player's value. I don't care where the puck was I'm trying to make a better guess as to where its going. Writing could be on the wall here.

Edited by roadawg
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17 minutes ago, roadawg said:

 

He's only 25 yrs old so I think its normal to see a larger delta in value with a guy like this. I don't think its fair to say we all know what he is at this point so I can see some people paying more expecting a 4th year breakout for a player with his skills, or the other side who think they know what we have here.

I'm of the camp that we haven't seen the best of him yet and I am expecting bigger things to come.

The kid is only entering his 4th year and despite missing 30+ games last year, he mashed 36 HR's, while back in his rookie at age 22 year he hit 24 HRs in only 59 games. He is only now entering his prime years at age 26. He could mash 45 HR's and slug 600 and it wouldn't surprise me at all. His batted ball profile looks tasty, and absolutely he kills the ball.

I see this a lot where people in general don't give enough time to fully evaluate a player's value. I don't care where the puck was I'm trying to make a better guess as to where its going. Writing could be on the wall here.

I agree with all of this. My shock was moreso that a lot of owners were thinking the same way and that drove his price up beyond some of the other players ranked ahead of him at 1B (Abreu went for $22) I was very excited to try to get Olsen in that $15 to $20 range. I saw a potential huge value play there. Was a big part of my plan going in... (of course, I blew that up in the first twenty minutes by grabbing Freeman at $37. lol)

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At the risk of curbing the Olson enthusiasm check out his projections compared to that of Mike Moustakas. It's almost like looking in a mirror and Moustakas plays a much shallower position...

MIKE MOUSTAKAS 

                           
Composite CIN 2B 558 81 35 96 3 0.262 0.326 0.505 0.831 50 104 $12.90
RotoChamp CIN 2B 553 77 34 90 3 0.257 0.321 0.499 0.820 49 100 $7.49
Steamer CIN 2B 556 82 36 97 3 0.257 0.323 0.504 0.827 50 109 $10.13
ZiPS CIN 2B 512 72 33 95 3 0.270 0.332 0.521 0.853 45 95 $15.66
ATC CIN 2B 556 81 34 96 3 0.259 0.324 0.495 0.819 50 104 $13.64
THE BAT CIN 2B 562 83 36 97 2 0.258 0.328 0.504 0.832 53 106 $14.73
2019 CIN 2B 523 80 35 87 3 0.254 0.329 0.516 0.845 53 98 $9.80

 

MATT OLSON 

                           
Composite OAK 1B 548 85 37 98 1 0.254 0.339 0.513 0.852 65 159 $10.68
RotoChamp OAK 1B 543 82 37 94 1 0.254 0.339 0.508 0.847 60 154 $7.95
Steamer OAK 1B 548 89 37 101 1 0.255 0.344 0.515 0.859 67 155 $9.90
ZiPS OAK 1B 514 80 35 98 1 0.253 0.339 0.512 0.851 60 152 $15.46
ATC OAK 1B 548 84 38 100 0 0.256 0.343 0.520 0.863 65 158 $14.31
THE BAT OAK 1B 545 84 36 93 1 0.246 0.337 0.503 0.840 69 161 $10.35
2019 OAK 1B 483 73 36 91 0 0.267 0.351 0.545 0.896 51 138 $10.89
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6 hours ago, jmcampbe11 said:

At the risk of curbing the Olson enthusiasm check out his projections compared to that of Mike Moustakas. It's almost like looking in a mirror and Moustakas plays a much shallower position...

MIKE MOUSTAKAS 

                           
Composite CIN 2B 558 81 35 96 3 0.262 0.326 0.505 0.831 50 104 $12.90
RotoChamp CIN 2B 553 77 34 90 3 0.257 0.321 0.499 0.820 49 100 $7.49
Steamer CIN 2B 556 82 36 97 3 0.257 0.323 0.504 0.827 50 109 $10.13
ZiPS CIN 2B 512 72 33 95 3 0.270 0.332 0.521 0.853 45 95 $15.66
ATC CIN 2B 556 81 34 96 3 0.259 0.324 0.495 0.819 50 104 $13.64
THE BAT CIN 2B 562 83 36 97 2 0.258 0.328 0.504 0.832 53 106 $14.73
2019 CIN 2B 523 80 35 87 3 0.254 0.329 0.516 0.845 53 98 $9.80

 

MATT OLSON 

                           
Composite OAK 1B 548 85 37 98 1 0.254 0.339 0.513 0.852 65 159 $10.68
RotoChamp OAK 1B 543 82 37 94 1 0.254 0.339 0.508 0.847 60 154 $7.95
Steamer OAK 1B 548 89 37 101 1 0.255 0.344 0.515 0.859 67 155 $9.90
ZiPS OAK 1B 514 80 35 98 1 0.253 0.339 0.512 0.851 60 152 $15.46
ATC OAK 1B 548 84 38 100 0 0.256 0.343 0.520 0.863 65 158 $14.31
THE BAT OAK 1B 545 84 36 93 1 0.246 0.337 0.503 0.840 69 161 $10.35
2019 OAK 1B 483 73 36 91 0 0.267 0.351 0.545 0.896 51 138 $10.89


See this is interesting because there are a few things here:

1) Moustakas is 31 and those projections have him performing at near career highs in HR and RBI.

2) Olson is 25 entering his third full season and those projections assume no real growth, if anything regression.

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11 hours ago, twelve20 said:


See this is interesting because there are a few things here:

1) Moustakas is 31 and those projections have him performing at near career highs in HR and RBI.

2) Olson is 25 entering his third full season and those projections assume no real growth, if anything regression.

 

...maybe the underlying numbers don't support growth? It's not like it's just one site, all of them are projecting him to basically equal last years numbers. 

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47 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

...maybe the underlying numbers don't support growth? It's not like it's just one site, all of them are projecting him to basically equal last years numbers. 

 

If you look at the 10-90% percentile of outcomes with these two guys Olson has a 45+ HR/100/115 potential and Moustakas does not.

 

If you think Mouse will hit his 50% projections and Olson too, then yeah I can see them ending up similar but I'm trying to win my league and catch something more special opposed to projecting out stats this way, its a shallow way to do it IMO and missing the point of catching upside. None of those projections (they way they are listed above) is looking at it the right way.

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6 minutes ago, roadawg said:

 

If you look at the 10-90% percentile of outcomes with these two guys Olson has a 45+ HR/100/115 potential and Moustakas does not.

 

If you think Mouse will hit his 50% projections and Olson too, then yeah I can see them ending up similar but I'm trying to win my league and catch something more special opposed to projecting out stats this way, its a shallow way to do it IMO and missing the point of catching upside. None of those projections (they way they are listed above) is looking at it the right way.

 

That's fine, but his previous high in HRs was 29 (over a full season) so I can understand their hesitancy to project him for 40+. Even if he does hit 40+ is it really that big of a difference? You could conceivable pick up 5-8 extra HRs by just streaming offensive players, during off days, throughout the year. What else does Matt Olson do, other than hit HRs, that's exceptional? That's what I'm struggling with. In an era of inflated power I don't quite understand why everyone is so high on this guy. Again, I'm no talking about his ADP, I'm talking about the justification for reaching him in like the early 4th round. 

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1 minute ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

That's fine, but his previous high in HRs was 29 (over a full season) so I can understand their hesitancy to project him for 40+. Even if he does hit 40+ is it really that big of a difference? You could conceivable pick up 5-8 extra HRs by just streaming offensive players, during off days, throughout the year. What else does Matt Olson do, other than hit HRs, that's exceptional? That's what I'm struggling with. In an era of inflated power I don't quite understand why everyone is so high on this guy. Again, I'm no talking about his ADP, I'm talking about the justification for reaching him in like the early 4th round. 

 
2018 was his only previous full season in the majors. He had a cup of coffee in 2016, and in 2017 he hit 24 HR in just 59 games played. So far, in terms of power potential, 2018 is the outlier.
from 2017-2019, in 348 career games, Olson has 89 homers. That's a per-162 game pace of 41.4 HRs. 
No, we don't bank on 162 games played for players anymore. But clearly he's demonstrated the power to pop 40 bombs in a healthy season. 
And all of the stats we have on Olson have come as a 23, 24, and 25 year old player. So he's not yet in his prime/peak years, and we really don't know whether he can make improvements to his game to 1) hit for higher average, 2) hit even more HRs. There are signs that he could do both (that you've seemed content to ignore throughout this thread). 
What can he do exceptionally other than hit homers? Well, he has 220 RBI in those same 348 games played since 2017. That's 102 RBI per 162 games played. He drove in 91 last year in just 127 games played. That's a pace of 116 over a full season. 102 RBI would have put him in the top 20 in RBI in all of baseball last season. 116 RBI would have put him top 10. And that was with Khris Davis having an abysmal season and Laureano missing a chunk of time (and many expect continued growth from him).
The A's were 9th in runs scored last year. Olson projects to bat cleanup for them.
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44 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

That's fine, but his previous high in HRs was 29 (over a full season) so I can understand their hesitancy to project him for 40+. Even if he does hit 40+ is it really that big of a difference? You could conceivable pick up 5-8 extra HRs by just streaming offensive players, during off days, throughout the year. What else does Matt Olson do, other than hit HRs, that's exceptional? That's what I'm struggling with. In an era of inflated power I don't quite understand why everyone is so high on this guy. Again, I'm no talking about his ADP, I'm talking about the justification for reaching him in like the early 4th round. 

The upside is a season similar to what Pete Alonso just put up. It's up to you if you don't want a piece of that.

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It’s amazing how little support he has had from day one simply because he wasn’t a top prospect when he broke out in the majors.  I mean it’s pathetic that Aristedes Aquino has more support for his “breakout” last year than olson has had for his career.  

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:
 
2018 was his only previous full season in the majors. He had a cup of coffee in 2016, and in 2017 he hit 24 HR in just 59 games played. So far, in terms of power potential, 2018 is the outlier.
from 2017-2019, in 348 career games, Olson has 89 homers. That's a per-162 game pace of 41.4 HRs. 
No, we don't bank on 162 games played for players anymore. But clearly he's demonstrated the power to pop 40 bombs in a healthy season. 
And all of the stats we have on Olson have come as a 23, 24, and 25 year old player. So he's not yet in his prime/peak years, and we really don't know whether he can make improvements to his game to 1) hit for higher average, 2) hit even more HRs. There are signs that he could do both (that you've seemed content to ignore throughout this thread). 
What can he do exceptionally other than hit homers? Well, he has 220 RBI in those same 348 games played since 2017. That's 102 RBI per 162 games played. He drove in 91 last year in just 127 games played. That's a pace of 116 over a full season. 102 RBI would have put him in the top 20 in RBI in all of baseball last season. 116 RBI would have put him top 10. And that was with Khris Davis having an abysmal season and Laureano missing a chunk of time (and many expect continued growth from him).
The A's were 9th in runs scored last year. Olson projects to bat cleanup for them.

 

He's never done it (hit 40+ HRs) before. We can project out his numbers all we want, but until it happens it's not a reality and I think that's accurately reflected in his projections from just about all of the fantasy sites. I also think 102 RBIs is on the low end for a guy that hits 40+ HRs. For context, Pete Alonso, a better version of Olson, drove in 120 RBI last season. I agree that he has some good players / solid OBP guys hitting in front of him so maybe there might be an uptick in his RBIs. I think where we really differ the most is batting average. I can live with you saying he might hit 40 bombs and drive in 100+ runs, but I can't live with the idea that he's anymore than a .260 hitter. For me, that will always limit his upside. He's basically Mike Stanton without the demonstrated history of having done it before. Maybe he makes the jump to the next level this season...and maybe he reverts back to his 2018 season performance. We're all just looking in our crystal balls and guessing at this point. 

Edited by jmcampbe11
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13 minutes ago, DConny1 said:

The upside is a season similar to what Pete Alonso just put up. It's up to you if you don't want a piece of that.

 

I agree with this. That's his ceiling. And, for now, his floor is probably his 2018 ceiling. 

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, jmcampbe11 said:

 

He's never done it (hit 40+ HRs) before. We can project out his numbers all we want, but until it happens it's not a reality and I think that's accurately reflected in his projections from just about all of the fantasy sites. I also think 102 RBIs is on the low end for a guy that hits 40+ HRs. For context, Pete Alonso, a better version of Olson drove in 120 RBI last season. I agree that he has some good players / solid OBP guys hitting in front of him so maybe there's an uptick in RBIs. I think where we really differ the most is batting average. I can live with you saying he'll hit 40 bombs and drive in 100 runs, but I can't live with the idea that he's anymore than a .260 hitter. For me, that will always limit his upside. He's basically Mike Stanton without the demonstrated history of having done it before. Maybe he makes the jump to the next level this season...and maybe he doesn't. 

 

this is rich coming from the guy who earlier in this thread kept repeating that Olson's career average is .254 and ignoring his .267 average last year (or his .276 from June on, or his .282 in the 2nd half). 

 

So with his batting average, the fact that he's done it (hit over .260) means nothing. 

But with his home run hitting, the fact that he hasn't done it (hit 40 homers) means EVERYTHING. 

 

BE. CONSISTENT.

Edited by mjb03003

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11 minutes ago, DConny1 said:

The upside is a season similar to what Pete Alonso just put up. It's up to you if you don't want a piece of that.

That's just not happening(or less then 1 percent). He doesn't have the same all fields power Alonso has.

He can reach the 40s.. 50+ takes the guys who can spray their power better.

Oslon hits as many as he does because his approach is near maxed towards his raw power already. Hes s tick below the Alonso, Judge, Stanton, Gallo, Sano terms of raw power. Better hit tool helps play better then Sano.

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14 minutes ago, mjb03003 said:

 

this is rich coming from the guy who earlier in this thread kept repeating that Olson's career average is .254 and ignoring his .267 average last year (or his .276 from June on, or his .282 in the 2nd half). 

 

So with his batting average, the fact that he's done it (hit over .260) means nothing. 

But with his home run hitting, the fact that he hasn't done it (hit 40 homers) means EVERYTHING. 

 

BE. CONSISTENT.

 

You're quoting a VERY small sample size (post all-star break) when you speak of his batting average. I think his CEILING is .260, but I'm expecting him to be much closer to his .254 career batting average. 

Also, you might want to dial back the arrogance / underlying condescension in your replies. You can't predict the future and neither can I. You're opinion is no more educated or valuable than mine or anyone else's for that matter.

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