Ecofolux

Matt Olson 2020 Outlook

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5 hours ago, mjb03003 said:

 

I realize this. It's why batted ball data matters. If you consistently hit the ball hard, and/or hit line drives, and/or hit the ball on the barrel, and/or have a certain launch angle... you can start to predict a few more batted balls becoming hits vs. someone who does less of these things. 

Lol,  to the exact tune of 3 more hits over 482 AB?

Man alive,  i need access to that system! To think,  all these years ive been doing it wrong...

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On 2/9/2020 at 2:54 AM, Fbaseballgod said:

I feel like in a normal season I’d be all over Olson, but I’m getting a soft “so underrated he’s overrated” vibe.  Still, I think I’m mostly a buyer- his peripherals are dreamy and it’s not like a 250-35 HR season will ruin you. Upside 275-280 with 40 HR 

 

1 month later and my analysis is the same.  Soft buyer but think he's getting a little overrated at this point by the ~analytics~ community

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1 hour ago, Fbaseballgod said:

 

1 month later and my analysis is the same.  Soft buyer but think he's getting a little overrated at this point by the ~analytics~ community

I think that’s fair, I mean I feel like that the crux of the other poster’s argument about Moustakas and Olson.  Specifically in Roto, you can acquire HR later.

I often roll my eyes and the recent bias that exists from the talking heads, and I think they see the HR count coming off an injury they said would impact his power.  So you get the pendulum swinging the other direction now and the approach becomes “imagine what that could look like over a full season”.  I don’t know how I would approach Olson in a redraft format, but I know I’m a believer in his ability and have been actively trying to acquire shares.

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On 3/11/2020 at 5:12 PM, WahooManiac said:

Lol,  to the exact tune of 3 more hits over 482 AB?

Man alive,  i need access to that system! To think,  all these years ive been doing it wrong...

 

I don't really know what you're referring to with the 3 more hits over 482 AB line. Maybe I missed a post somewhere. I don't think it's entirely quantifiable, how much better your stats will be based on how the ball comes off your bat, but since we're all in the business/hobby of projecting I don't see how it isn't relevant information that can help separate otherwise similar players.

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2 bombs.  Hopefully he gets on track.

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