Ecofolux

Bo Bichette 2020 Outlook

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Entering age 22 season, was really good in his debut, 46 games played 142WrC+   .311/.358/.571...11HRs. Looking at his minor league stats he has considerably more speed than he showed with his 4SBs in 2019. He has a ground-ball tilt (43.8%) in his hitting profile with only a 32.7 Hard Contact%, also a 22.4 HR/FlyBall%..which is way higher than he's ever shown in the minors and screams regression....not sure what to think about this guy

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I just like that Grey from Razzball called him Boba Chet

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What does everyone think his final line will be? Can he steal 20 bases? Hit 20 HR?

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I get a Whit Merrifield vibe, with more power.  He hit 11 HRs in 212 PAs last season, with a freakish 18 doubles.

Steamer has him at .275/.328 with 22 HR, 74 RBI, 93 R, 24 SB.

I think Steamer is generally pretty conservative and Bo is leading off for TOR with Biggio, Vlad Jr, and Gurriel Jr behind him.  Barring injury, 100 runs seems like a lock and he showed 30+ SB speed pretty regularly in the minors so I'll say: .275/.330 - 20 - 65 - 110 - 30 with room in the HRs. 

I feel like he's oddly underrated right now being drafted at #74 after Machado and right near Semien.  Curiously, Hiura is at #43 and it looks like Bo will outperform him overall pretty easily.

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He stole 22 in 2017 and 19 last year. One year does not equate 30+ SB speed regularly

See way too many players never sniff their MILB SB numbers. He could make improvements, but if i'm drafting him. Expecting around 10+ SBs, anything after is a bonus. There is more then raw speed to getting bags off MLB pitchers and catchers. He did not flash great base running skills in his 200 PA sample. 

 

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

He stole 22 in 2017 and 19 last year. One year does not equate 30+ SB speed regularly

See way too many players never sniff their MILB SB numbers. He could make improvements, but if i'm drafting him. Expecting around 10+ SBs, anything after is a bonus. There is more then raw speed to getting bags off MLB pitchers and catchers. He did not flash great base running skills in his 200 PA sample. 

 

Very possible that he doesn't hit 30 steals, and I agree that expecting less is probably wisest.  This said, even at last season's pace he projects to 12 SBs.  The year before in the minors he stole 15 in a mere 244 PA.  In 2018 he stole 32 in almost 600 PAs.  But you're right, minor numbers often don't translate, even with talents like this.

So cut the steals in half, and give him .275/.330 - 20 - 65 - 110 - 15.

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14 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

He stole 22 in 2017 and 19 last year. One year does not equate 30+ SB speed regularly

See way too many players never sniff their MILB SB numbers. He could make improvements, but if i'm drafting him. Expecting around 10+ SBs, anything after is a bonus. There is more then raw speed to getting bags off MLB pitchers and catchers. He did not flash great base running skills in his 200 PA sample. 

 

Yeah no doubt.  Minor league catchers are still learning whereas MLB catchers are an entirely different animal.  MLB pitchers have better moves and know how to vary looks to throw off the run game.  Plus with how much more power is at the major league level there is a much less willingness to run into an out.  Every season especially since to be more and more prevalent.

 

SBs continue to become more and more of a rarity.

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I'm kinda bullish on him...Saw him play a lot in the Eastern League and I love his potential...I have him in dynasty but I may just reach a little in redraft... 

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On 1/6/2020 at 9:08 AM, Slatykamora said:

He stole 22 in 2017 and 19 last year. One year does not equate 30+ SB speed regularly

See way too many players never sniff their MILB SB numbers. He could make improvements, but if i'm drafting him. Expecting around 10+ SBs, anything after is a bonus. There is more then raw speed to getting bags off MLB pitchers and catchers. He did not flash great base running skills in his 200 PA sample. 

 

 

 

 

 

This is kind of splitting hairs, but he had 22 SB in 499 PA in 2017, 32 SB in 595 PA in 2018, and 15 SB in 244 PA before his call-up in 2019. If you look at pace of SB per 600 PA, it's works out to about a 26 SB pace in 2017, the 32 in 2018, and 37 SB pace in 2019. 

So you can see a clear progression in his base stealing getting stronger every year, and that's all while steadily moving up levels in MiLB and being consistently young for every level he played in. He's also only graded out as having 45/50 Speed on the standard scouting 80 scale, so it isn't like he's got tons of raw speed but doesn't know how to steal. Rather he shows a very advanced approach to stealing and knowing when to go. 

As @En Votto Veritas pointed out, Steamer has him projected at 24 SB, and they are usually very conservative, so I feel like that's a fairly safe number. Of course anything could happen, but Steamer has done their research and arrived at that number. 

Also I can say from watching almost every Jays game that Bo didn't have a ton of opportunities to steal bases in his taste of MLB because all he did was mash the ball! Pretty hard to steal bases when you're consistently hitting doubles and singers. Over the ups and downs of a full year, I think the HR rate and doubles level off, but that will also lead to more opportunities to steal. 

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On 1/7/2020 at 10:41 AM, hockeyfan77 said:

I'm kinda bullish on him...Saw him play a lot in the Eastern League and I love his potential...I have him in dynasty but I may just reach a little in redraft... 

Same.  Watching him and Vlad destroy things in low A Lansing was awesome,  for the brief stint they were together there.  

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

This is kind of splitting hairs, but he had 22 SB in 499 PA in 2017, 32 SB in 595 PA in 2018, and 15 SB in 244 PA before his call-up in 2019. If you look at pace of SB per 600 PA, it's works out to about a 26 SB pace in 2017, the 32 in 2018, and 37 SB pace in 2019. 

So you can see a clear progression in his base stealing getting stronger every year, and that's all while steadily moving up levels in MiLB and being consistently young for every level he played in. He's also only graded out as having 45/50 Speed on the standard scouting 80 scale, so it isn't like he's got tons of raw speed but doesn't know how to steal. Rather he shows a very advanced approach to stealing and knowing when to go. 

As @En Votto Veritas pointed out, Steamer has him projected at 24 SB, and they are usually very conservative, so I feel like that's a fairly safe number. Of course anything could happen, but Steamer has done their research and arrived at that number. 

Also I can say from watching almost every Jays game that Bo didn't have a ton of opportunities to steal bases in his taste of MLB because all he did was mash the ball! Pretty hard to steal bases when you're consistently hitting doubles and singers. Over the ups and downs of a full year, I think the HR rate and doubles level off, but that will also lead to more opportunities to steal. 

You realize he was caught 4 times, right? 4/8. He was trying to Steal last year. He does have 20+ SB upside. I'm just very cautious about it

 

Upper Minor SB totals: (Of players who've had starting MLB gigs)

2015: Mallex Smith (57), Tim Anderson (49) Keon Broxton (39) Teoscar Hernandez (33) Jose Peraza (33) Whit Merrifeld (32), Trea Turner (29), O. Arcia(25)

2016: Adam Engal (39), Teoscar Hernadnez (34), Manuel Margot (30), Ozzie Albies (30)

2017: Oscar Mercado (38), Ronald Acuna (30), Scott Kingry (29), Ramon Lauerano (24)

2018: Oscar Mercado (37), Garrett Hampson (36), Bo Bichette (32), Tommy Edman (30), Kevin Newman (29), Richie Martin (25)

 

MLB SBs totals of those players  (3 reached 40+)  (4 reached 30+)  (8 reached 20+)

Turner 46, 43, 35, 33

Smith 46, 40

Merrifeld 40, 34, 20

Acuna 37, 16

Anderson 26, 17, 15, 10

Peraza 23, 23, 21, 7

Broxton 23, 21

Margot  20, 17, 11

Newman 16,

Mercado 15,

Edman 15,

Hampson 15,

Kingrey 15, 10

Albies 15, 14, 8

Arcia 14, 8, 8, 7

Martin 10,

Laureano 1

Teoscar  6, 5

 

SBs are the hardest to predict. So you never see me deny someone young/athletic has SB upside. Guys who stole less in the minors can suddenly steal more. It happens. I just don't find SB's to be very predictable based off what they stole in the minors. What makes him any better runner then Albies, or Kingrey or Newman? That doesn't mean he is barred from being a Whit Merrifeld in the right situation. Just not as likely

Edited by Slatykamora
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we have seen yoan steal 49, 44 in minors, seen springer steal 45, 32 in minors,

 low/mid teens would be nice where he is getting dratfed and if you are looking for higher sb guy at the spot in the draft i would look elsewhere. robles/roberts. (have seen this plan backfire by passing on a better player for certain stats like sb)

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Steamer is usually very conservative but they’re actually the most optimistic when it comes to his number of SB (24). THE BAT and ATC have him at 17. 

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trying to find a major flaw in his game and I don't really see any. He could be one of the rare players who hit for average and provide solid power and speed. A true 5 cat guy who may not stand out in any one area (except runs, since he's slated to leadoff for the Jays) but he will provide a ton of value overall. 

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On 2/20/2020 at 7:13 AM, mjb03003 said:

trying to find a major flaw in his game and I don't really see any.


Yea his peripherals all seem to be at least league average. One thing he can work on is his GB% - 44%. Yet he still managed to hit 11 HRs in only 200 ABs

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Does anyone not like this guy and his draft price lol

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10 hours ago, Magoo said:

Does anyone not like this guy and his draft price lol

The only knock against Bichette is the position he plays at. SS is sooo deep I might not spend that 60-70 pick on him and wait for Seager/Polanco/Andrus/Anderson way later, depends on the flow of the draft.

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24 minutes ago, Ecofolux said:

The only knock against Bichette is the position he plays at. SS is sooo deep I might not spend that 60-70 pick on him and wait for Seager/Polanco/Andrus/Anderson way later, depends on the flow of the draft.

Seager for sure. Anderson too.

there is downside for sure imo. Swing still a tad long and we haven’t see pitchers adjust. The steal projections are nvts nuts 🥜 aggressive. Can he do it sure? Sure but stealing at MLB level is one of the biggest leaps and there is no track record whatsoever at MLB level.

 

Id buy in the 70s but I get the feeling I’ll never get him there. 

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40 minutes ago, DConny1 said:

His skillset reminds me of Ozzie. 20-25HR, 15-25SB, good average and on-base skills.

I think the steal totals will be most likely in the 20s, since he’ll be leading off

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1 hour ago, FrankReynolds said:

Having a great spring again. Im seeing 30hr 40 doubles 20sb 100+runs.

So is the guy who took him 4th round In our 12 team draft. I was so upset. 

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