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Corleone

Calvin Ridley 2020 Outlook

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Posted (edited)

Calvin Ridley had an impressive Year 2 in 2019. Despite an injury in Week 14 and missing the final 3 games, he had 63 catches, 866 receiving yards, and 7 TD's. 

How impressive were those numbers? Well, I took a look at how Ridley compared to Julio Jones through Week 14.
Ridley actually was the higher-ranked WR...in every fantasy format:

image.png.309a2d7b1563d76a5da2bba2b7cdf849.pngimage.png.b33e4fcfffb6a862ecf95f977000ad2b.png

Some will point out that Ridley is higher only because he scored more TD's, and that TD's can fluctuate.
But keep in mind that in two seasons, Ridley has been pretty good at getting in the end zone, with 10 and 7 TD's (in 13 games) so far.
On the flip side, Julio had 8 and 6 TD's in the two seasons Ridley has been on the team. And 8 and 6 are common totals for him...
Julio has played 8 full seasons (plus one year of 5 games). He's had 6 TD's three times. And 8 TD's three times. Plus a 10 TD year, and a 3 TD year.
Anything can happen in a given year, but we have a good idea of who Julio is as far as getting TD's.

With that, we know Julio's big thing is his consistency getting catches and receiving yards.
What's interesting is through Week 14 2019, Ridley had essentially the same yards per target that Julio did. Julio won by .01, 9.32 YPT to Ridley's 9.31.
And looking at catch percentage, Ridley had a 67.7% on his targets. Julio was at 63.3% through Week 14.
So we can't say that Julio was more efficient than Ridley despite the fewer TD's. Ridley scored more touchdowns AND was more efficient.

With Ridley out for the final 3 games of 2019, Julio went off and put up big stats (in Week 15 & 16 in particular). With that, he zoomed up the fantasy leaderboard amongst WR's. Just looking up the raw stats as people get ready to draft during spring and summer 2020, it will appear that Julio was way better than Ridley. But while they were both active, the above stats show that wasn't the case.

Edited by Corleone

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Posted (edited)

Despite Ridley having higher fantasy ranks than Julio, across all fantasy formats before his season-ending abdomen injury, Julio is ranked significantly higher than Ridley in early 2020 rankings. I looked up some early rankings and here's what I've seen...

--PFF: Julio WR #6; Ridley WR #21 https://www.pff.com/news/fantasy-football-top-150-rankings-2020
--Fantasy Pros: Julio WR #4; Ridley WR #32 https://www.fantasypros.com/2020/01/2020-early-fantasy-football-draft-rankings/
--ESPN: Julio WR #4; Ridley WR #31 https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/id/28378586/the-192-christian-mccaffrey-top-pick-2020-fantasy-football-drafts

I'm NOT saying that Ridley should be ranked above Julio. Julio's consistency is being a WR1 by end of season is outstanding and he should certainly be ranked higher. But I find the difference between them in early rankings to be eye-opening.

IMO, Ridley should be ranked higher amongst WR's overall...at least close to the #20 range if not a bit higher (with ranks in the 30's way too low). Having to compete with Julio for targets and not being the #1 WR on his own team, that's certainly a mark against Ridley in fantasy. But he's shown what he can do despite being in that situation...and with raw stats depressed because of how 2019 ended, Ridley is someone that might be able to be drafted at a discount in 2020. We shall see.

Edited by Corleone

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I believe in Ridley’s talent, but he has only had 2 good games when Hooper was in the lineup. It was frustrating to see Ryan constantly overlook Ridley.

if Hooper signs someplace else, Ridley could be a huge asset.

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2 minutes ago, Steve gar said:

I believe in Ridley’s talent, but he has only had 2 good games when Hooper was in the lineup. It was frustrating to see Ryan constantly overlook Ridley.

if Hooper signs someplace else, Ridley could be a huge asset.

I feel he had more than 2 good games with Hooper in the lineup...but on the flip side, all 4 of his bad games were with Hooper in there. And in those games, it definitely was frustrating to see Ridley overlooked. Heck, even in some of Ridley's better games, it was still frustrating. So I agree with you there. And it will be very interesting to see what happens with Hooper in free agency. That and whatever they do with their running game are two big offseason question marks that will impact Ridley for sure.

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One final thing while it's fresh in my head from the 2019 season...

Calvin Ridley has played 29 career games.
He's received 8 or more targets in 8 of 29 games (27.6%).
He's had a good game in all 8 of those 8-target games (100%).

image.png.7c2c1890bfe8610ae5f780b1d9c2883e.png

If Atlanta does more of a concerted effort to get the ball to Ridley, look out.

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Have him in dynasty, helped lead me to the title two years in a row...Great WR 2/Flex with room for improvement 

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1 hour ago, hockeyfan77 said:

Have him in dynasty, helped lead me to the title two years in a row...Great WR 2/Flex with room for improvement 

Yup, I see him as at least a mid-range WR2 for 2020, with potential to threaten as a WR1, and hopefully can be drafted like a WR3/Flex.

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Posted (edited)

Something like WR19 last year as a rookie, and when he got shut down for the Ab injury late this year he was around WR13.

 

Hes basically a rock solid WR2 with upside going forward. Year 3 is historically the biggest jump/breakout season for WRs, so I’d project him to finish as a low WR1 to high WR2 this year, WR9-12. In the same tier as Julio.
 

This situation reminds me a lot of the Evans/Godwin receiver room going into this last season, except Julio is of an advanced age and should be ceding more and more work to Ridley each year for the rest of his career now. 
 

My prediction next year:

80/1000/10, WR10 overall.

Edited by LostAtSea
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Love Ridley this year .  Im drafting in auction and would gladly take him as my WR1 if i spend on kelce or a Barkley / cook combo 

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Love him as my WR2 but not 1. I think he can be a decent value because a lot of people shy away because Julio is still there.

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Not sure what’s funny about those posts?
 

I went back and in 0.5ppr Ridley was WR20 not WR19 over 16 games in 2018 and he was WR13 when his season ended after 13 games in 2019.

 

Here are his stats:

 

2018 - 64 receptions/821 yards/12.8ypr/10TD

2019 - 63/866/13.7/7TD, but that was in only 13 games. Extrapolated to all 16 at that pace is 78/1066/13.7/8.6TD. That would have been good for WR12 overall.

 

One prediction above is 80/1000/10 and WR10 overall next year. Very reasonable, at or even below expectations a bit for Ridley’s expected career arc as Julio ages. I’m sticking with that prediction. 80/1000/10. WR10.

 

Another prediction is he’ll be a WR1 in fantasy next year. Also seems very reasonable. He was right on the edge of finishing as a WR1 this last, his sophomore, year. And, as a rookie in 2018, he was already a mid WR2 on much lower target volume. 92 targets in 2018 vs finishing 13 games with 93 in 2019 - on pace for 115 total.

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3rd year next season, kid will be a monster.

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Still looking for a 3rd year leap? Thoughts?

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Ridley is the guy that falls in draft because he’s not the sexy pick.

That being said Ridley is a nice late third early 4th pick. Julio is 31 which isn’t too old for WRs but he’s likely not going to be a target hog forever. Even then, Ryan can support two WRs and Ridley is for sure talented enough.

The problem is his upside is somewhat capped with Julio. That being said, he’s also going in the Boyd, Samuel, DK, Chark, Gallup, and Hilton range. I rather have Ridley than all those other than Hilton 10/10. 

 

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Been beating this drum since before the end of last season: Ridley is going to be a WR1. His outlook just keeps getting better and better.

 

https://www.al.com/sports/2020/06/falcons-think-calvin-ridley-could-explode-in-2020-nfl-season.html

 

That is not just positive coach speak from Koetter. That is also Matt Ryan saying that he and Ridley got to work together on the "little nuances that are going to make us better. That's the development you can get with a guy now going into year 3. But you can only really get there if you have this extended amount of time and this one-on-one venue to work at. He's a guy I think could explode going into a year like this. He's in phenomenal shape. He's been running great, and I think his grasp of the offense and his mastery of our system is just so much further along than last year."

 

I feel like raising my conservative January projection of 80/1000/8 for him up to 90/1150/9. That would have been tied for WR8 I believe overall and ppg last year, 0.5ppr. With upside. I'll say it again: WITH UPSIDE. If Julio goes down, gets banged up, or regresses significantly at all at his age, Ridley will get 10+ targets per game, compared to his current 6-7.

 

I'm glad the public and the analysts are catching on to the Ridley situation because I already own him in every league I am in and don't mind his value skyrocketing everywhere.

 

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Posted (edited)

Love every faucet of his game & with Julio pulling coverage, Ridley is going absolutely nuclear this year. He’s really special and will be the pack master in a few years, once #11 is officially out his dominant days.

Edited by RunCMC
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41 minutes ago, LostAtSea said:

Been beating this drum since before the end of last season: Ridley is going to be a WR1. His outlook just keeps getting better and better.

 

https://www.al.com/sports/2020/06/falcons-think-calvin-ridley-could-explode-in-2020-nfl-season.html

 

That is not just positive coach speak from Koetter. That is also Matt Ryan saying that he and Ridley got to work together on the "little nuances that are going to make us better. That's the development you can get with a guy now going into year 3. But you can only really get there if you have this extended amount of time and this one-on-one venue to work at. He's a guy I think could explode going into a year like this. He's in phenomenal shape. He's been running great, and I think his grasp of the offense and his mastery of our system is just so much further along than last year."

 

I feel like raising my conservative January projection of 80/1000/8 for him up to 90/1150/9. That would have been tied for WR8 I believe overall and ppg last year, 0.5ppr. With upside. I'll say it again: WITH UPSIDE. If Julio goes down, gets banged up, or regresses significantly at all at his age, Ridley will get 10+ targets per game, compared to his current 6-7.

 

I'm glad the public and the analysts are catching on to the Ridley situation because I already own him in every league I am in and don't mind his value skyrocketing everywhere.

 

 

So basically like Devanta Parker?

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Ridley will be a beast yet again in 2020. Julio is getting much older and those bones are hurting more & more. 

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16 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

So basically like Devanta Parker?

She sounds hot

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  • Calvin Ridley said he spent the offseason doing more leg workouts.

    Ridley's goal is to "easily" be a 1,000-yard receiver this season alongside Julio Jones, and he believes getting his legs stronger is the way he'll be able to break that threshold. Last season, Ridley fell just shy of that number with 866 yards across 13 games, which equates to a 1,065-yard 16-game pace. With a league-leading number of available targets in Atlanta, Ridley is expected to take a leap into the high-end WR2 conversation in 2020, perhaps even higher. Those extra offseason squats should help his shockingly poor yards after the catch totals from a season ago. 

    Aug 20, 2020, 7:05 PM ET
     

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I think he is one of those high upside guys you can get in the 5th. While you load up on backs.

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Debated for a couple hours between him and Woods (slow draft), took Ridley. I'm buying the vacated targets and year 3 breakout.

Edited by young dude
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1 hour ago, young dude said:

Debated for a couple hours between him and Woods (slow draft), took Ridley. I'm buying the vacated targets and year 3 breakout.

 

I like that, either way you know you're getting a good player, almost surely, but Ridley has the chance to take a bigger jump than Woods does.

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