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Gardner Minshew 2020 Outlook

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Minshew's dad was on 1010 earlier today.  The RV trip is a 30 day one and Gardner has plans to visit various friends (mostly ex-college teammates) along the way, hit some suggested stops, and do some hunting and fishing during the trip.  He mentioned Gardner does not own the RV, but is being given it to use for the period for doing some promotional stuff in return.

 

It's stuff like this that will make it impossible for the Jags to even entertain the thought of Foles starting next year. There would be a massive revolt.

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That guy is a living legend and hasn't even played a whole season. Will draft him as backup QB just for said legend status.

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Jags need to draft a QB, stick with Foles, or sign another QB to start. I thought Minshew peaked last season and showed he wasn't capable of being anything but a backup.

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21 minutes ago, devaster said:

I thought Minshew peaked last season

Peaked in his rookie season?! 

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21 hours ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Peaked in his rookie season?! 


I mean this is possible but I do think Minshew looked pretty solid overall. Would they just get rid of Foles though? Will be interesting to see what shakes out here.

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I think they'll stick with Minshew and (probably?) cut Foles. Not sure the cap ramifications of cutting Foles, I know they gave him a ton of guaranteed money but they will still probably save by cutting. Minshew could be decent value if you wait reallllly long on QB in the draft but I wouldn't be excited about it.

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2 minutes ago, bangarrang said:

I think they'll stick with Minshew and (probably?) cut Foles. Not sure the cap ramifications of cutting Foles, I know they gave him a ton of guaranteed money but they will still probably save by cutting. Minshew could be decent value if you wait reallllly long on QB in the draft but I wouldn't be excited about it.

It would cost them around $19M to let him walk.

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Just now, BMcP said:

It would cost them around $19M to let him walk.

 

Oh dang, yeah he'll probably stick around as a backup then right? $50 million guaranteed on that deal. Ouch.

 

Just googled and found this:

 

“They’d eat almost $34 million in 2020 dead money if they cut him and almost $19 million if they traded him,” ESPN’s Dan Graziano pointed out on Monday. “The offseason could bring about major changes on the coaching staff and in the front office in Jacksonville, and if that’s the case, the new administration there will have major decisions to make while dancing around a monster quarterback cap number.”

 

 

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1 minute ago, bangarrang said:

 

Oh dang, yeah he'll probably stick around as a backup then right? $50 million guaranteed on that deal. Ouch.

 

Just googled and found this:

 

“They’d eat almost $34 million in 2020 dead money if they cut him and almost $19 million if they traded him,” ESPN’s Dan Graziano pointed out on Monday. “The offseason could bring about major changes on the coaching staff and in the front office in Jacksonville, and if that’s the case, the new administration there will have major decisions to make while dancing around a monster quarterback cap number.”

 

 

Yep.  I imagine Foles remains the starter if he’s not traded.  I love Minshew (as a person and character) but I don’t foresee a starting role for him moving forward.

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2 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:


I mean this is possible but I do think Minshew looked pretty solid overall. Would they just get rid of Foles though? Will be interesting to see what shakes out here.

Same. To come in and play like he did as a sixth round pick that no one expected to see the field, I’d say he did a pretty good job. 

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1 hour ago, BMcP said:

Yep.  I imagine Foles remains the starter if he’s not traded.  I love Minshew (as a person and character) but I don’t foresee a starting role for him moving forward.

 

I dunno, this is the kind of mindset that prohibits NFL teams from getting out of perpetual mediocre (or worse) ruts, by taking the traditional/safe route or "doing what you're supposed to do"..

In reality Nick Foles likely isn't going to lead the Jaguars on a deep playoff run next year, so what's the upside to starting him over Minshew? There really isn't much because Foles is also at the point in his career where he's probably not developing a whole lot further, he's shown that he can absolutely get a hot streak going but at the end of the day he isn't a player most smart teams would feel great anchoring their offense to long term. 

Meanwhile Minshew has shown that he can win games in the NFL (which is obviously very difficult in its own right, especially as a rookie) and presumably has a lot of room to grow as a player, but he can't develop if he isn't starting.. The Jags don't fully know what they have in Minshew, could he end up being terrible? Maybe, maybe not. Could he end up being a great real-life QB? Again, maybe, maybe not. But Jacksonville would be wise to find this out themselves by letting him start next season.

But ultimately we're talking about the NFL where bad decisions flow like wine so I would not be at all surprised to see the Jags start Foles in 2020 which will probably eventually lead way to Minshew starting games later in the season.

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3 minutes ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

I dunno, this is the kind of mindset that prohibits NFL teams from getting out of perpetual mediocre (or worse) ruts, by taking the traditional/safe route or "doing what you're supposed to do"..

In reality Nick Foles likely isn't going to lead the Jaguars on a deep playoff run next year, so what's the upside to starting him over Minshew? There really isn't much because Foles is also at the point in his career where he's probably not developing a whole lot further, he's shown that he can absolutely get a hot streak going but at the end of the day he isn't a player most smart teams would feel great anchoring their offense to long term. 

Meanwhile Minshew has shown that he can win games in the NFL (which is obviously very difficult in its own right, especially as a rookie) and presumably has a lot of room to grow as a player, but he can't develop if he isn't starting.. The Jags don't fully know what they have in Minshew, could he end up being terrible? Maybe, maybe not. Could he end up being a great real-life QB? Again, maybe, maybe not. But Jacksonville would be wise to find this out themselves by letting him start next season.

But ultimately we're talking about the NFL where bad decisions flow like wine so I would not be at all surprised to see the Jags start Foles in 2020 which will probably eventually lead way to Minshew starting games later in the season.

Good points all around.  The monetary commitment to Foles is immense, and potentially crippling to roster construction if they get rid of him.  Minshew did demonstrate less of a proclivity to turning the ball over after his brief benching.  Maybe they decide it’s worth developing him?  Regardless, not going the Foles route will cost this team a lot in 2020.

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5 hours ago, MoonBlaster said:

 

I dunno, this is the kind of mindset that prohibits NFL teams from getting out of perpetual mediocre (or worse) ruts, by taking the traditional/safe route or "doing what you're supposed to do"..

In reality Nick Foles likely isn't going to lead the Jaguars on a deep playoff run next year, so what's the upside to starting him over Minshew? There really isn't much because Foles is also at the point in his career where he's probably not developing a whole lot further, he's shown that he can absolutely get a hot streak going but at the end of the day he isn't a player most smart teams would feel great anchoring their offense to long term. 

Meanwhile Minshew has shown that he can win games in the NFL (which is obviously very difficult in its own right, especially as a rookie) and presumably has a lot of room to grow as a player, but he can't develop if he isn't starting.. The Jags don't fully know what they have in Minshew, could he end up being terrible? Maybe, maybe not. Could he end up being a great real-life QB? Again, maybe, maybe not. But Jacksonville would be wise to find this out themselves by letting him start next season.

But ultimately we're talking about the NFL where bad decisions flow like wine so I would not be at all surprised to see the Jags start Foles in 2020 which will probably eventually lead way to Minshew starting games later in the season.

I agree with you and here's an added way the Jags can look at it if both QB's are on the team.
If they start Foles and have Minshew as the backup, they're spending X money. 
But if they instead start Minshew and have Foles as the backup, well they're still spending X money. X doesn't become Y if Foles is on the bench.

Minshew may not have the ceiling of the other rookie QB's...but he was the highest-rated rookie QB per PFF, over the likes of Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, and Dwayne Haskins (granted, it wasn't difficult to beat Haskins):

"The highest-graded rookie quarterback in the NFL wasn’t Kyler Murray, Dwayne Haskins or Daniel Jones; it was the sixth-round pick, Gardner Minshew. His 70.3 overall grade on the season ranked 20th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. Despite some concerns over his arm strength coming into the NFL, Minshew was one of the top deep-ball passers in the league this season. His 129.0 passer rating on passes 20 or more yards downfield was the highest mark in the league, and his PFF grade on those throws trailed only Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson."

 

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At the very least he has shown he deserves to at least compete for a starting spot. Foles isn't going anywhere with that fat contract and with that money the people signing the checks will almost certainly want to try to get the most out of that and let Foles take the job. I'm hopeful Minshew can make strides this offseason to be more consistent and put Foles in the rearview more permanently.

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People are and will sleep about this kid,just for example,take Kyle Murray numbers,the QB that won ROY

Minshew: 14 games,3,271 yds,21 TDS and 6 INTS

Murray: 16 games,3,722,20 TDS and 12 INTS

 

Gardner could realistically be the ROY with two more games and seeing Kyle hype being a first round fantasy pick and Gardner not even been quoted makes no sense,he doesnt need to prove anything to be Jaguars QB and seeing Foles trade just shows that the Jaguars front office trust the guy, forget about the memes and jokes,if you actually watch his tape u can see what Im talking about,mark my words,he will be a TOP 5 this season

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5 minutes ago, MarielJr said:

People are and will sleep about this kid,just for example,take Kyle Murray numbers,the QB that won ROY

Minshew: 14 games,3,271 yds,21 TDS and 6 INTS

Murray: 16 games,3,722,20 TDS and 12 INTS

 

Gardner could realistically be the ROY with two more games and seeing Kyle hype being a first round fantasy pick and Gardner not even been quoted makes no sense,he doesnt need to prove anything to be Jaguars QB and seeing Foles trade just shows that the Jaguars front office trust the guy, forget about the memes and jokes,if you actually watch his tape u can see what Im talking about,mark my words,he will be a TOP 5 this season

 

Rushing  
     
Attempts 67 93
Yards 344 544
Yds/Att 5.1 5.8
Long 21 35
20+ 2 7
TD 0 4

 

You forgot the rushing stats , which is a big part of Kyler's game .... I'm sure you can guess who's in the green .   And not a chance Minshew will finish top5 , that's just crazy talk. 

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Posted (edited)

I think the way Minshew faded as the season wore on is gonna be fresh on people's minds and keep him firmly planted as a QB3.   I suppose there's some potential there for him to overperform though.  In a 2 QB league he makes sense as a 3 with upside, but as of right now i want Bridgewater or Burrow for that spot more than him.  

Edited by BrianM

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Posted (edited)

Anyone think the Jags go WR/TE with one of their early picks?

R1 P9

R1 P20

R2 P42

R3 P74

Edited by bhawks489

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Lots of holes there so they could reasonably go any direction with those picks i guess.   I'm expecting this to be the GM's last crack at it so he could do just about anything here.  

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14 hours ago, BrianM said:

I think the way Minshew faded as the season wore on is gonna be fresh on people's minds and keep him firmly planted as a QB3.   I suppose there's some potential there for him to overperform though.  In a 2 QB league he makes sense as a 3 with upside, but as of right now i want Bridgewater or Burrow for that spot more than him.  

 

i vote overperform! 

in november, the pressure was on, jacksonville creating a QB question with foles now healthy: minshew played against houston with his job on the line and he choked. no TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks. more than the stats, it was ugly to watch, especially after seeing some great QB play in previous months. minshew was great to watch, fun to watch, and he truly netted some great passes and moves. foles comes in for three weeks, sucks ugly, loses each game. would minshew have choked if the jaguars didn’t create a QB controversy in november, who knows.

 

but beyond mustaches, minshew played great. it was his rookie year. i’m a believer that minshew will take a step forward as a sophomore. i’m excited to see him play, and happy to see foles shipped off. in two-QB leagues, i see minshew as a no-brainer. in dynasty, i vote stash.

OptimalIdioticAustraliancurlew-size_rest

 

14 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

Anyone think the Jags go WR/TE with one of their early picks? R1 P9 R1 P20 R2 P42 R3 P74

 

13 hours ago, BrianM said:

Lots of holes there so they could reasonably go any direction with those picks i guess.   I'm expecting this to be the GM's last crack at it so he could do just about anything here.  

 

my 2 cents, kristian fulton (CB, LSU) may be their #1 pick. the jaguars defense went from great to rot fast. they also need S and DL. offensive line is an absolute must (ravens knocked minshew’s helmet off three times in one game). can’t see a WR or TE going with the first three picks. they took josh oliver round 3 last year, now pairing youth with rickety eifert. DJ chark will be 24 this coming season (chris conley, dede, marquis lee, and kcole all 26-28 range)

sack #3, watch how kenny young takes a peek in the helmet to see if minshew's head is still inside

BogusComplicatedJaguar-size_restricted.g

 

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When fantasy season rolls around guys like Minshew will become more appealing. Last year as a rookie he was having 250 yard and 2 TD games. Not bad from a fantasy perspective but he would need to show improvement and consistency to be drafted higher 

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17 hours ago, RunCMC said:

 

Rushing  
     
Attempts 67 93
Yards 344 544
Yds/Att 5.1 5.8
Long 21 35
20+ 2 7
TD 0 4

 

You forgot the rushing stats , which is a big part of Kyler's game .... I'm sure you can guess who's in the green .   And not a chance Minshew will finish top5 , that's just crazy talk. 

Don't get me wrong,I am a big fan of Murray,he will be a franchise QB for the Cardinals and I know about his rushing habilities but talking about strict quarterback numbers,they were not that far away and the Teams records say the same,Jaguars 6-10 and Cards 5-10,I don't think u should put them in the same class but seeing all the talk of Murray being an TOP 5 pick in the fantasy drafts and Gardner being forgotten doesnt seem right.

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On 1/8/2020 at 7:53 AM, devaster said:

Jags need to draft a QB, stick with Foles, or sign another QB to start. I thought Minshew peaked last season and showed he wasn't capable of being anything but a backup.

LMAO.... QB peaking during his rookie season LMAO!

I was thinking that this would be post of the year but I will nominate it for post of the decade.

by the way, was 2019 the first time you ever watched a football game?  


God bless, be safe, and there is help out there if needed.

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