cashvillesent

Gardner Minshew 2020 Outlook

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blake bortles once put up 4.4k yards 35 tds/18 int. minshew is infinitely better. albeit different system, situation, coach etc.

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2 hours ago, Motown_Magic said:

Nice start to the year for the young goat. 75% completion%, 6 TD to 2 picks so far, nice matchup against MIA upcoming followed by Cincy next week. Highly debating pulling the plug on Wentz for this guy

MIA secondaries are talented. I wouldnt call this a good match up.

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8 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

MIA secondaries are talented. I wouldnt call this a good match up.

See this is what worries me. Their best CB (Jones) is likely out but they still have their 1st round rookie and Xavien Howard. Yes diggs put them in a blender but its stefon diggs. 

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I think the correct comp for Minshew is Kirk Cousins under Jay Gruden. The game is very similar. Neither flashes immense arm talent, but both can make all the throws and are very savvy about maximizing the talents they do have. With the right supporting cast they are competent, but will never be super bowl contenders. 

 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

MIA secondaries are talented. I wouldnt call this a good match up.

Dolphins head coach Brian Flores said CB Byron Jones (groin) "would have to heal pretty quickly" to play Thursday against the Jaguars. 

Jones, after leaving Sunday's game with a groin injury, looks like a long shot to play in against Jacksonville in a shortened week. His absence would make a good matchup even better for Gardner Minshew, who has an unsustainable 9.2 percent touchdown rate through two weeks. Minshew will be a rock-solid QB2 with plenty of upside against Miami's woeful secondary. 

And through 2 games, Miami is 31st against opposing QB's in fantasy:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/fantasy-points-against-QB.htm

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23 minutes ago, cashvillesent said:

MIA secondaries are talented. I wouldnt call this a good match up.

 

The over under on this game isn't that high, which is a bit surprising, but maybe Vegas knows that something is up considering it's TNF and these two teams could be a question mark of offensive firepower on Thursday. I can see a low-scoring running game with kicks galore lol. Last Thursday was definitely offensive fireworks however. 

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2 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

The over under on this game isn't that high, which is a bit surprising, but maybe Vegas knows that something is up considering it's TNF and these two teams could be a question mark of offensive firepower on Thursday. I can see a low-scoring running game with kicks galore lol. Last Thursday was definitely offensive fireworks however. 

 

Vegas knows how to set the over under to make money no matter what the result is. I think it's important to not read too much into Vegas totals

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26 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Dolphins head coach Brian Flores said CB Byron Jones (groin) "would have to heal pretty quickly" to play Thursday against the Jaguars. 

Jones, after leaving Sunday's game with a groin injury, looks like a long shot to play in against Jacksonville in a shortened week. His absence would make a good matchup even better for Gardner Minshew, who has an unsustainable 9.2 percent touchdown rate through two weeks. Minshew will be a rock-solid QB2 with plenty of upside against Miami's woeful secondary. 

And through 2 games, Miami is 31st against opposing QB's in fantasy:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2020/fantasy-points-against-QB.htm

Yeah but thats not necessarily due to QB passing. They got Newton and White Newton (aka Allen) two weeks in a row

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14 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

The over under on this game isn't that high, which is a bit surprising, but maybe Vegas knows that something is up considering it's TNF and these two teams could be a question mark of offensive firepower on Thursday. I can see a low-scoring running game with kicks galore lol. Last Thursday was definitely offensive fireworks however. 

Initial was 44 and the public bet it up to 47 no? 

 

Vegas set the line low because both teams are bad and play at slower than average pace I believe (Jags do for sure, but Dolphins may be faster).

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9 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said:

Yeah but thats not necessarily due to QB passing. They got Newton and White Newton (aka Allen) two weeks in a row

Josh Allen had the best passing game of his career on Sunday. It was the first 400-yard passing game of his career (beating his previous high, from Week 1, by 105 yards). It was also the first 4-TD pass game of his career. It was also his top game by passer rating. He also only rushed for 18 yards and 0 TD's.

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35 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Josh Allen had the best passing game of his career on Sunday. It was the first 400-yard passing game of his career (beating his previous high, from Week 1, by 105 yards). It was also the first 4-TD pass game of his career. It was also his top game by passer rating. He also only rushed for 18 yards and 0 TD's.

Right but what I'm saying is Cam was 15 for 19 for 155 with no passing TDs but 75 with 2 Rush TDs. That's why I don't think FP against QB is a good metric in context. 

8.1 YPA is still strong but they faced two QBs who can extend plays and score extra points thru rushing. 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Sizzlebshu said:

Right but what I'm saying is Cam was 15 for 19 for 155 with no passing TDs but 75 with 2 Rush TDs. That's why I don't think FP against QB is a good metric in context. 

8.1 YPA is still strong but they faced two QBs who can extend plays and score extra points thru rushing. 

If you think Miami is good against the pass and don't want to start Minshew for that reason, that's your right.

BTW, Minshew ran for the 5th-most yards of any QB in 2019 (in 14 games).

Edited by Corleone
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I don’t see what’s to dislike here. He’s a QB with a constant chip on his shoulder for varying reasons. He’s got weapons and an OC who will maximize his skill set and theirs. Unless you have one of the top 8 guys I’d be rolling with Minshew

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27 minutes ago, Corleone said:

If you think Miami is good against the pass and don't want to start Minshew for that reason, that's your right.

BTW, Minshew ran for the 5th-most yards of any QB in 2019 (in 14 games).

Again, all I am saying is that (1) QB fantasy points =/= pass defense especially when the matches occurred in a two game stretch against two of the leagues best running QBs; and (2) that Miami's strength on defense appears to be defending the pass given its talent. 

 

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Easy QB1 this week. The Dolphins secondary is terrible without Jones. Howard can't cover man to man and the other guy, #23, can't cover for ****. 

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Where would you rank him vs QB this week with tough matchups.

 

For instance bench Watson against Pittsburgh for him?

Ryan against the bears?

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Probably dropping Brees for Minshew if I can get him under 5% FAAB. He has been very consistent since last year and very underated. 

 

Hopefully I can get him in my lineup.... otherwise I'm going to throw in Tannehill.

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2 hours ago, CanaBuc said:

Where would you rank him vs QB this week with tough matchups.

 

For instance bench Watson against Pittsburgh for him?

Ryan against the bears?

If I’m able to get minshew this week, I’m starting him over Watson no question.

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10 minutes ago, mannymachado said:

Start over wilson?


I mean, love Minshew against Miami.  But how do you disrespect the QB 1 like that?

Dallas Seattle is going to be a shootout.  

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4 minutes ago, rasto21585 said:

Am I crazy for considering starting Minshew over Stafford this week?

 

I think your crazy the other way around

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16 hours ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

 

The over under on this game isn't that high, which is a bit surprising, but maybe Vegas knows that something is up considering it's TNF and these two teams could be a question mark of offensive firepower on Thursday. I can see a low-scoring running game with kicks galore lol. Last Thursday was definitely offensive fireworks however. 

 

yeah, that opening # was surprising ... but i see two offenses that should be able to move the foosball, matriculating down the field with aplomb.

im'ma bite the over in Jax games until the Jags prove to be not up to the task of giving & receiving - if it ain't broke ...

Edited by pastorofmuppets2
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