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fletch44

Ozzie Albies 2020 Outlook

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Will Albies get better in 2020 ?  I think so. I'm excited about Ozzie this year. He had a miserable 6 weeks or so last spring where he seemed to have the yips at the plate and was moved to the 8 hole. That feels like a bit of a learning curve/adjustment period to me. I don't expect to see that kind of sustained struggle from Albies in 2020. Still only 23, Ozzie now has a few years under his belt. The talent and the lineup could be set up for him to have a monster season.

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I wish he was on a team like the Royals that would let him loose on the basepaths. I bought into the hype that he could be a 15 HR, 40 steal guy but I don't see that happening in today's game. Only a few teams let their guys really run.

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As horrible as the first 2 months went for him, just as we were all thinking he was droppable, Albies went off and finished with remarkably consistent numbers to his boom of a 2018 season. Upping his BA from .261 to .295, and his OBP from .305 to .352, this shows that his plate discipline clearly is growing as he matures as a hitter. Walks went up by 35% as well. Because of his atrocious righty/lefty splits, it is hard to feel confident that he is their set in stone leadoff hitter, and I do not believe consistency will ever be his strongsuit.

A final line of .290/.355 OBP, 100 runs, 25 HRs, 90 RBIs and 15-20 steals seems fair, as this virtually models last season, which feels repeatable.

As much as I love him, his ADP of 35-42 currently is too rich for me, as there have been periods of 4-6 weeks each of the last 2 seasons that he was nearly droppable.

If those steals could get up to the 25-30 range, we are then talking a top 30 pick. For me, anything after an ADP of 55 and I would pull the trigger, but I believe a guy who can match all the counting stats ( minus steals) 4-5 rounds later like a DJ LeMahieu brings more value given his ADP, so I will be passing on Albies until we see those steals get up above 20+. Cavan Biggio is another guy going 140+ with the 20-20 upside to warrant passing on Albies in his current ADP range.

We know Albies is capable of 25+ steals, just depends if the Braves want it to happen. 

Edited by Motown_Magic
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I'm high on his long term outlook with him only being 23. He is making some improvements each year and I think he is going to take off this year in that ATL lineup. 

I do have some concerns he may not crush in Steals because of the strong bats in the lineup. 

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On 1/13/2020 at 11:31 AM, Motown_Magic said:

As horrible as the first 2 months went for him, just as we were all thinking he was droppable, Albies went off and finished with remarkably consistent numbers to his boom of a 2018 season. Upping his BA from .261 to .295, and his OBP from .305 to .352, this shows that his plate discipline clearly is growing as he matures as a hitter. Walks went up by 35% as well. Because of his atrocious righty/lefty splits, it is hard to feel confident that he is their set in stone leadoff hitter, and I do not believe consistency will ever be his strongsuit.

A final line of .290/.355 OBP, 100 runs, 25 HRs, 90 RBIs and 15-20 steals seems fair, as this virtually models last season, which feels repeatable.

As much as I love him, his ADP of 35-42 currently is too rich for me, as there have been periods of 4-6 weeks each of the last 2 seasons that he was nearly droppable.

If those steals could get up to the 25-30 range, we are then talking a top 30 pick. For me, anything after an ADP of 55 and I would pull the trigger, but I believe a guy who can match all the counting stats ( minus steals) 4-5 rounds later like a DJ LeMahieu brings more value given his ADP, so I will be passing on Albies until we see those steals get up above 20+. Cavan Biggio is another guy going 140+ with the 20-20 upside to warrant passing on Albies in his current ADP range.

We know Albies is capable of 25+ steals, just depends if the Braves want it to happen. 

Not to nitpick one little thing in a good post, but I don't think he's going to leadoff outside of Acuna's off days possibly. Has there been talk of him leading off?

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29 minutes ago, mavsfan23 said:

Not to nitpick one little thing in a good post, but I don't think he's going to leadoff outside of Acuna's off days possibly. Has there been talk of him leading off?

 

Snitker just said the other day that Acuña will remain in the leadoff spot. I don't foresee him giving up that role for years to come. 

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20 hours ago, mavsfan23 said:

Not to nitpick one little thing in a good post, but I don't think he's going to leadoff outside of Acuna's off days possibly. Has there been talk of him leading off?

My wording was poor there- was basically trying to get across the fact that those who think he eventually could have a shot leading off are most likely dreaming. Really what those drafting him round 3-4 need to hope for is a solid increase in steals. I just feel like we would have already seen it happen. Really like Albies though and I don’t disagree with anyone putting him in their top 2-3 2B. Could easily finish #1

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Albies is just still so young. He also signed a chump change contract. Acuna, Albies, Freeman is a pretty potent top 3. Maybe Ozuna will be a better hitter in the 4 hole in Atlanta than in st Louis.

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I bet the players union is pushing all players away from Albies agent. 

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47 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

I bet the players union is pushing all players away from Albies agent. 

 

1 hour ago, Overlord said:

Has Albies fired his agent yet?

 

Acuna too.

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I think he's primed to explode this year. He will finally have a set spot in the lineup at #2. He's just 23 years-old and entering his third season. I see HUGE things. Think 30 home runs, 20 SBs, .295-.305 AVG along with a boatload of runs. STUD.

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23 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

 

Keston Hiura says hello


Ozzie says hello back. 

I’d prefer Albies longterm, and I say that as a Hiura owner who has no shares of Albies. 

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3 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:


Ozzie says hello back. 

I’d prefer Albies longterm, and I say that as a Hiura owner who has no shares of Albies. 

 

They were similar prospects. I could see  an argument either way. 

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I think you have to go Albies > Hiura in a dynasty.

Albies has 1630 MLB ABs under his belt with a clean 16.2% K%. His BABIP over this period is low at .307.  He's hit .279/.332 which has room to grow.

Hiura has a mere 348 MLB ABs with a terrible 30.7% K%.  His BABIP is unsustainable at .402.  He's hit .303/.368 which should come down to earth.

They are the same age.  Whether or not they had similar prospect profiles, Albies has consistently shown his ability against MLB pitching while Hiura has not.

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8 hours ago, En Votto Veritas said:

I think you have to go Albies > Hiura in a dynasty.

Albies has 1630 MLB ABs under his belt with a clean 16.2% K%. His BABIP over this period is low at .307.  He's hit .279/.332 which has room to grow.

Hiura has a mere 348 MLB ABs with a terrible 30.7% K%.  His BABIP is unsustainable at .402.  He's hit .303/.368 which should come down to earth.

They are the same age.  Whether or not they had similar prospect profiles, Albies has consistently shown his ability against MLB pitching while Hiura has not.

 

Hiura's BABIP should come down there's plenty of reason to believe his K% will also come down to balance that out some. Further, part of that BABIP discrepancy can be explained by Statcast numbers:
 

Albies avg exit velocity: 88.8mph (145th in baseball)

Hiura avg exit velocity: 91.4mpg (22nd in baseball)

 

Albis barrel %: 6.6% (242nd in baseball)

Hiura barrel %: 13.9% (29th in baseball)

 

In Hiura's rookie season he hit for a higher average (.303 to .295 AVG), got on base more (.368 to .352 OBP), and hit for a lot more power (.570 to .500 SLG) than Albies.

 

 

Albies is a great young player and there is definitely a case to preferring him in in dynasty. It's also perfectly logical for someone to prefer Hiura.

 

 

 

Edited by hailtoyourvictor
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16 hours ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Albies is a great young player and there is definitely a case to preferring him in in dynasty. It's also perfectly logical for someone to prefer Hiura.

 

Everything you say is true, and indeed it is a matter of preference, but I think the sample size outweighs the Statcast numbers.  Many players have come out hot like Hiura, backed by Statcast numbers and all, only to fade quickly.  Far fewer have done what Albies has.  But yes, arguments can and will be made both ways.  Something that I can't figure out is why Bichette is 30 spots behind these two...

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59 minutes ago, En Votto Veritas said:

 

Everything you say is true, and indeed it is a matter of preference, but I think the sample size outweighs the Statcast numbers.  Many players have come out hot like Hiura, backed by Statcast numbers and all, only to fade quickly.  Far fewer have done what Albies has.  But yes, arguments can and will be made both ways.  Something that I can't figure out is why Bichette is 30 spots behind these two...

 

Maybe sample size :)

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It's simply amazing that this guy is underrated, even if only a little. The fantasy community, in general, is so quick to get bored and look for the next shiny new toy. This kid just turned 23 last month. He has averaged 24 HR and 14.5 SB the past 2 seasons while playing in 157.5 games per year. His stolen base rate is 82.2% in his MLB career. He's spent may ABs batting lower in the lineup and this year he's penciled in to the #2 spot. Is it crazy to seen him running a bit more and his power bumping even a little as he matures physically? He's become a bit "boring", but is capable of 28-30 HR and 20-25 SB with a .290 avg. I'll take that kind of boring all the way to many fantasy titles. 

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13 hours ago, nittanychris said:

It's simply amazing that this guy is underrated, even if only a little. The fantasy community, in general, is so quick to get bored and look for the next shiny new toy. This kid just turned 23 last month. He has averaged 24 HR and 14.5 SB the past 2 seasons while playing in 157.5 games per year. His stolen base rate is 82.2% in his MLB career. He's spent may ABs batting lower in the lineup and this year he's penciled in to the #2 spot. Is it crazy to seen him running a bit more and his power bumping even a little as he matures physically? He's become a bit "boring", but is capable of 28-30 HR and 20-25 SB with a .290 avg. I'll take that kind of boring all the way to many fantasy titles. 

Couldn't agree more

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27 minutes ago, Atomicdogg97 said:

Where should he be targeted in redraft leagues?

He's going #37 overall. If you really want him, try to grab him towards the beginning of the third round in 12-team leagues. 

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